每经编辑｜何小桃 美国对伊朗动手，全球资本市场埋单。 今天（6月23日）亚太股市开盘多数走低。 截至发稿，台湾加权指数跌1.58%，日经225指数跌0.3%，富时新加坡海峡时报指数跌0.35%，韩国KOSPI指数得0.39%，澳大利亚普通股指数得0.36%，印 度孟买SENSEX指数跌0.61%，印尼雅加达综合指数跌1.35%。 | 台湾加权 | 21698.01 | -1.58% | -347.73 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TWII | | | | | 日经 225 | 38287.21 | -0.30% | -116.02 | | N225 | | | | | 富时新加坡海峡时报 3869.86 | | -0.35% | -13.57 | | STI | | | | | 韩国 KOSPI | 3010.12 | -0.39% | -11.72 | | KS11 | | | | | 澳大利亚普通股 8685.90 | | -0.43% | -37.60 | | AORD | | | | | 韩国 KOSPI200 403.85 | | -0.36% | -1.47 | | ...

6 月 23 日早盘， A 股三大指数集体低开，随后震荡调整。截至发稿，沪指跌 0.06% ，深 成指跌 0.03% ，创业板指跌 0.01% 。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/23，不作投资推荐） 板块上来看，稳定币概念股早盘快速走高，油气股再度活跃，海运、半导体、化工等板块涨 幅居前；而白酒、家电、食品等板块震荡调整。 | 结矿 | 离境退税 | 油气开采 | 稳定币 | 能源设备 | 综合类 | 港口 | 发电设备 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.28% | 3.07% | 3.05% | 2.82% | 2.28% | 1.98% | 1.77% | 1.64% | | 先进封装 2.58% | 光刻机 2.53% | 航运 2.52% | 天然气 2.44% | 海運 1.61% | 精细化工 1.11% | 未曾体 1.06% | 基本金属 0.92% | | 太原姓都未 2.26% | 深海科技 2.23% | 白色家电 -0.88% | 光模块(CPO) -0.90% | 航天军工 0.88% ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced significant movements across various sectors, particularly in oil and gas, shipping, and the semiconductor industry, with major financial institutions also showing strong performance [1][2][4][8]. Sector Summaries Oil and Gas - Oil and gas stocks surged, with companies like Taishan Petroleum and Shandong Molong hitting the daily limit, indicating strong market interest in this sector [1]. Shipping - The shipping sector also saw notable gains, with stocks such as Ningbo Shipping and Lianyungang reaching their daily limit, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]. Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, particularly in the wafer foundry segment, with leading companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor rising by 3.57% and 3.82% respectively [4][8]. - The demand for semiconductor storage chips is increasing, driven by a recovery in the market since March, with significant price increases noted for DDR4 products [7]. - Analysts expect a "valuation expansion" trend in the semiconductor industry due to macroeconomic policies, inventory cycles, and AI innovation [8]. Solid-State Battery - The solid-state battery sector has been active, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt and Taihe Technology seeing substantial gains [10]. - The industry is expected to maintain rapid growth, driven by emerging demands from new industries and supportive policies [12]. - Full solid-state battery commercialization faces challenges, but optimistic projections suggest that leading companies may achieve stable production by 2027 [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly focusing on the impact of military actions on the oil and shipping sectors, highlighting significant price increases in shipping rates and potential implications for oil prices [1][4][10]. Group 1: Military Actions and Responses - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran's nuclear and missile projects have been "severely damaged," and Israel's objectives are "very close to completion" [1][4]. - Following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran's leadership indicated that they would not engage in diplomatic negotiations before retaliating [1][4]. - The Iranian parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade, although the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council [7][10]. Group 2: Impact on Shipping and Oil Prices - The A-share shipping sector experienced a significant surge, with companies like China Merchants Energy and Ningbo Shipping hitting the daily limit [2][9]. - The rental prices for large oil tankers have skyrocketed, with the daily rental for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) increasing from $19,998 to $47,609, a rise of 138% [9][10]. - The rental rates for Long Range 2 (LR2) tankers also saw a substantial increase, from $21,097 to $51,879, indicating a broader trend of rising shipping costs due to heightened security risks in the region [10]. Group 3: Oil Price Projections - Analysts predict that oil prices will experience significant upward pressure, with Brent crude futures potentially breaking the $80 per barrel mark and fluctuating between $70 and $100 per barrel [10]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to contribute to volatility in oil prices and shipping rates, driven by the uncertainty surrounding Iran's potential actions regarding the Strait of Hormuz [10].

【导读】稳定币概念股快速走高，油气股再度活跃 中国基金报记者 李智 一起来看下最新的市场情况及资讯。 6 月 23 日早盘， A 股三大指数集体低开，随后震荡调整。截至发稿，沪指跌 0.06% ，深 成指跌 0.03% ，创业板指跌 0.01% 。 板块上来看，稳定币概念股早盘快速走高，油气股再度活跃，海运、半导体、化工等板块涨 幅居前；而白酒、家电、食品等板块震荡调整。 | W | 神州信息(000555) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 交易中 06-23 10:20:15 融 通 | | | | | | 13.54 | 额 3.96亿 | 股本 9.76亿 | 市盈 -24 | | 万得 | | 1.23 9.99% | 换 3.09% | 市值1 132亿 | 市净 2.38 | | 盘口 | | 关时 五日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 中多 ( | | | 叠加 | | | 均价:13.18 盘口 | | 资金 | | 18.54 | | | 9.99% 卖五 卖四 | | | | | | | 27 - | | | | | ...

消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结 论， 认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡 ，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 早盘WTI 原油主力期货一度涨超6%。 摩根大通预测，若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油价可能飙升至120— 130美元区间。 （→ 美国打击伊朗核设施，卫星图曝光！原油大涨，黄金高开 ） 申万宏源认为，短期A股风险偏好回落，自上而下的叙事有所弱化，短期有休整需要，但跌不 深是一致预期，对应短期防御类资产有绝对收益。 国泰海通证券表示，全球地缘政治格局加速演变，外贸有望打开军工行业新的增长极，推荐 产品或业务与出口密切相关企业。分析认为，在大国博弈加剧的背景下，加大国防投入是当 今时代的必选项，内需和外贸有望驱动军工行业高景气度，保持发展趋势长期向好。 信达证券认为，市场在6—7月可能还会有震荡回撤，不过幅度可控。三季度后期或四季度， 盈利、政策和居民资金三个因素中，只要有一个往乐观方向转变，市场有望回归牛市状态。 现货黄金失守3 3 6 0美元/盎司 6月23日，A股指数低开，三大股指一度飘红。截至10:40，约3500股上涨。 板块上，油气、航运、军工涨幅居前 ...

早盘油气股再度活跃， 茂化实华3连板， 神开股份涨停， 科力股份、 新锦动力、 通源石油涨超10%， 山东墨龙、 准油股份 触及涨停。消息面上，早盘WTI原油主力期货一度涨超6%。 ...

A股油气开采板块多数高开，科力股份开涨10.23%，淮油股份开涨8.21%，中曼石油、中油工程等跟 涨。 ...

Group 1 - Dong Fang has resigned as the Deputy General Manager of China Merchants Fund due to work arrangements as of June 19 [1] - Dong Fang has a career history that includes positions at China Merchants Bank and has been with China Merchants Fund since August 2023 [1] Group 2 - As of June 19, 47 new equity funds have been established in June, with several funds entering the investment phase shortly after their inception [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF launched on June 4 saw its unit net value increase from 1 to 1.0012 within two days [2] Group 3 - Oil and gas public funds have outperformed innovative drug-themed products in net value growth since June, with several funds showing over 15% growth [3] - The net value growth rate for the Jiashi Oil Fund reached 17.3%, while other oil and gas funds maintained growth rates between 9% and 10% [3] Group 4 - The Wind Micro Stock Index has reached a new high, with the CSI 2000 and Guozheng 2000 indices showing significant gains [4] - However, there has been a noticeable pullback in micro stocks following a brief market adjustment, indicating higher volatility [4] Group 5 - Fund managers have warned about the risks associated with the "herding" phenomenon in micro stocks, suggesting that excessive concentration could lead to a market correction [5] - The current market sentiment suggests that low trading volumes are driving participants to focus on micro stocks for excess returns [5] Group 6 - On June 20, Jingpin Special Equipment announced that Li Xiaoxing and Zhang Ping's fund has entered its top ten circulating shareholders with a holding of 840,100 shares [6] - The same fund has reduced its holdings in Jingpin Special Equipment by 516,100 shares compared to the end of the first quarter [7] Group 7 - Chen Hongbin has been appointed as the new General Manager of Huiquan Fund, succeeding Liang Yongqiang [8] - Chen Hongbin has held various senior positions in financial institutions, including China Life Insurance and Longjiang Bank [8] Group 8 - On June 20, the market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.07% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.47% [9] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9] Group 9 - The S&P Consumer ETF led the decline with a drop of 6.03%, while several oil and gas resource ETFs also experienced pullbacks [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a price forecast of $66 per barrel for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a trend towards a looser supply-demand balance for crude oil in 2025, with the EIA projecting a global oil supply surplus of approximately 820,000 barrels per day this year [4][19]. - The report highlights that the upstream sector is showing signs of recovery, with drilling day rates expected to increase as global capital expenditures rise [4][21]. - The refining sector is experiencing improved profitability due to rising product price spreads, although current levels remain low [4][21]. - The polyester sector is underperforming, with PTA and polyester filament profits declining, but a gradual improvement is anticipated as new capacities come online [4][21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $77.01 per barrel, a 3.75% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 1.18% to $73.84 per barrel [4][25]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 421 million barrels, down 11.47 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 10% decline compared to the same period last year [4][27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $11.58 per barrel, up $6.18 from the previous week [4]. - The report notes that while refining product spreads have improved, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual enhancement as economic recovery progresses [4][21]. Polyester Sector - The report states that PTA prices have turned from decline to increase, with the average price in East China reaching 5,084 RMB per ton, a 4.69% increase week-on-week [4]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is described as average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [4][21][22]. - It also suggests that the polyester sector may see long-term improvements, advocating for investments in leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][21][22].