银行账户里的钱正在悄然"搬家"。 央行近期披露的一组数据被广泛关注。7月住户存款同比多减7800亿元，而非银存款则同比多增1.39万 亿元。 住户存款减少，转向非银存款，意味着在当前低利率和股市回暖的背景下，居民储蓄正通过银行理财、 基金、保险等渠道流向资本市场。 未来存款搬家可能持续演进。近期数据来看，超额存款的形成速度已经开始放缓，一方面由于居民对未 来经济状况预期有所好转，另一方面则是因为占居民金融资产最大部分的房产光环逐渐褪去。 在广谱利率下行与房地产投资属性弱化的双重催化下，超额储蓄有望加速向权益市场迁移，成为A股增 量资金的"主力军"。 有序的存款搬家是货币政策生效、金融改革深化和经济活力提升的标志。它表明资金正摆脱"沉睡"，通 过市场化的方式流向更能创造价值的地方，自然也是好事。 存款搬家的直接动力来自存款利率的持续下行。目前，国有大行一年期定存利率已跌破1%，10万元存 银行，年利息不足千元，对储户的吸引力大幅下降。 反观资本市场赚钱效应凸显。7月以来A股三大指数全线上涨，两市成交额创年内新高。股市的"慢 牛"行情与存款收益形成的巨大反差，让不少储户开始"心动"不如"行动"。 当然，这些资金并 ...

流总费用与国内生产总值（GDP）的比率降至14%，较一季度和上年同期分别下降0.1个和0.2个百分 点，实现了自有统计以来的最低水平，节约全社会物流费用超过1300亿元。（下转A02版） （上接A01版）"展望下半年，随着政策持续发力，绿色发展、民生消费等领域物流有望延续良好态 势，全年社会物流总额增速有望保持在5.5%左右。"中国物流信息中心主任刘宇航说。 资金流支持实体经济 资金流数据显示，金融支持实体经济有力度。人民银行日前发布数据显示，上半年，社会融资规模增量 累计为22.83万亿元，比上年同期多4.74万亿元。对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加12.74万亿元，同比 多增2796亿元。6月末，广义货币（M2）余额330.29万亿元，同比增长8.3%。 ● 本报记者 连润 铁路暑运过半，累计发送旅客4.56亿人次，同比增长3.6%，旅游专列的开行为消费市场注入新动能；7 月物流业景气指数达50.5%，业务总量保持扩张；上半年社会融资规模增量达22.83万亿元，金融精准发 力支持实体经济……近期多维度数据彰显中国经济蓬勃活力，勾勒出经济运行平稳态势。 人畅其行 物畅其流 暑期火热的客流彰显"流动中国"的蓬勃 ...

Economic Growth and Trade - China's service trade showed a steady growth with a total import and export value of 32,543.6 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in the first five months of 2025, with exports growing by 15.1% and imports by 2.7% [1] - Knowledge-intensive service imports and exports reached 12,492.7 billion RMB, growing by 5.0% [3] - Travel services continued to grow rapidly, with imports and exports reaching 9,200.5 billion RMB, an increase of 12.2%, making it the largest sector in service trade [5] Policy Support and Manufacturing - The main policies supporting technological innovation and high-quality development in manufacturing resulted in tax reductions and refunds amounting to 636.1 billion RMB in the first five months of 2025 [7] - High-tech industry sales revenue increased by 14.2%, significantly outpacing the overall national growth rate, while manufacturing sales revenue grew by 4.2% [8] Commodity Prices and Futures Market - The commodity price index in China rose to 110.8 points in June, reflecting a 0.5% month-on-month increase, indicating a recovery in production and business activities [10] - The futures market saw a cumulative trading volume of 4.076 billion contracts and a trading value of 339.73 trillion RMB in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year increases of 17.82% and 20.68% respectively [10] Renewable Energy Development - The Jiangsu Dafeng offshore wind power project, the farthest offshore wind project in China, has begun grid-connected power generation with a total installed capacity of 800 MW, capable of supplying over 2.6 billion kWh of clean electricity annually [13] International Trade and Logistics - The "Zheng He" international multimodal transport train service launched from Kunming, Yunnan, to Vientiane, Laos, with new routes to Thailand, Singapore, and Bangladesh, significantly reducing transportation distance and time [14][17]

Economic Performance Overview - In May, China's economic resilience and vitality were highlighted by a 6.2% year-on-year increase in the service sector production index, driven by strong consumer engagement during the "May Day" and "Dragon Boat" holidays [1] - The "618" online shopping promotion, which started on May 13, saw a 6.3% year-on-year increase in online retail sales of physical goods, boosted by a policy encouraging the exchange of old consumer goods for new ones [1] External Trade and Tourism - The expansion of visa-free entry for foreign nationals has stimulated the domestic consumption market, with a notable increase in foreign tourists participating in local cultural experiences [2] - Payment transactions from foreign visitors to China surged, with the number of transactions increasing by 2.4 times and the transaction amount rising by 1.3 times [2] Innovation and Industrial Development - The manufacturing of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicles and smart vehicle-mounted devices has gained positive recognition, indicating a rapid advancement in industrial intelligence and its role in promoting industrial upgrades [2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is ongoing, with innovation playing a crucial role in driving development [2] Economic Strategy and Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties in the international environment and persistent domestic economic challenges, there is a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation to ensure sustainable economic growth [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating potential for absolute and relative returns in the short, medium, and long term [2][3]. Core Insights - The M1 growth rate has rebounded, signaling economic vitality, although it remains below seasonal norms. The increase in M1 is primarily attributed to a low base effect from the previous year [1][2]. - Credit growth in May was 0.62 trillion, which is lower than the seasonal average, but the real credit demand appears stable as indicated by the increase in non-bill financing [1][2]. - The fiscal strength indicator has shown a significant decline, suggesting a need to monitor the sustainability of fiscal efforts moving forward [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - M1 growth increased by 0.8 percentage points, with a monthly decrease of 0.23 trillion in May 2025, compared to a net decrease of 1.08 trillion in May 2024 [1]. - Total credit increased by 0.62 trillion in May 2025, lower than the 0.95 trillion in May 2024 and 1.36 trillion in May 2023, indicating that credit growth has not yet returned to seasonal levels [1]. Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that while M1 and credit indicators show no further weakening in economic vitality, they have not yet returned to normal seasonal levels. Future attention should be given to the sustainability of fiscal efforts and the liquidity effects following large bank capital injections [2]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from structural optimization and increased fiscal support directed towards social welfare areas, which could enhance both short-term demand and long-term supply [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment approach across state-owned, joint-stock, and regional banks, focusing on those with superior free cash flow valuations [3]. - It highlights that high-dividend banks are likely to outperform in relative returns due to their defensive advantages amid external uncertainties [3].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3380.82[1] - The CSI 300 Index stands at 3907.20[1] - The Shenzhen Component Index is reported at 10186.44[1] Social Financing Insights - In April 2025, the social financing increment was 1.16 trillion CNY, down from 5.89 trillion CNY in March 2025, slightly below the market expectation of 1.26 trillion CNY[7] - The year-on-year increase in social financing increment for April 2025 was 1.22 trillion CNY, the highest since February 2023[8] - The government bond financing in April 2025 increased by 1.07 trillion CNY, accounting for 87.7% of the total social financing increment[8] Loan Dynamics - The new RMB loans recorded a year-on-year decrease of 246.5 billion CNY in April 2025, only 11% of the average for the same month over the past five years, indicating a significant lack of demand for financing in the real economy[8] - The total new RMB loans for April 2025 were reported at -2.45 trillion CNY, compared to 5.31 trillion CNY in March 2025[10] Monetary Supply Trends - M2 growth rate in April 2025 was +8.0%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rate was +1.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[15] - The decline in the M1-M2 gap indicates a decrease in economic vitality[15] Investment Recommendations - Buy: Expected investment returns over the next six months are projected to exceed a 10% increase relative to the CSI 300 Index[18] - Hold: Expected investment returns are projected to be between -10% to +5% relative to the CSI 300 Index[18]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government and the European Union recognize the critical role of investment flows and personnel exchanges in maintaining economic vitality [1] Group 1 - The acknowledgment of investment flows as essential for economic activity highlights the importance of cross-border capital movement [1] - Personnel exchanges are seen as a key factor in fostering economic relationships and enhancing productivity [1]

Group 1: Service Trade - In Q1 2025, China's service trade grew rapidly, with total service import and export amounting to 19,741.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - The service trade deficit was 3,038.8 billion RMB, a decrease of 244.6 billion RMB compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Cultural Industry - In Q1 2025, the revenue of cultural and related industries reached 33,939 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, with the growth rate accelerating compared to the entire year of 2024 [7] - The cultural new business formats achieved revenue of 14,846 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, contributing 83.5% to the revenue growth of all large-scale cultural enterprises [10] - The profit of large-scale cultural enterprises totaled 2,744 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, with significant profit contributions from digital content services and internet cultural platforms [13] Group 3: Logistics - In Q1 2025, the total social logistics reached 91 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with industrial product logistics growing by 5.9% [14] - The demand structure for logistics improved, driven by policies such as large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades [14] - Online retail of physical goods saw a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, indicating a robust online consumption trend [16] Group 4: Employment - In Q1 2025, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created, an increase of 50,000 compared to the previous year, with the urban survey unemployment rate at 5.2% [16] - The government has issued over 640 billion RMB in special loans to stabilize and expand employment, benefiting over 5.3 million jobs [17] Group 5: Social Security - By the end of March 2025, the number of people covered by basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.071 billion, 244 million, and 297 million respectively, showing an increase from the previous year [19] - The total income of the three social insurance funds in Q1 was 2.36 trillion RMB, with total expenditures of 1.94 trillion RMB, maintaining a stable fund operation [21] Group 6: Marine Economy - In Q1 2025, China's marine production value reached 25 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, outpacing the GDP growth rate [22][23] - The marine traditional industries showed stable progress, with significant growth in shipbuilding orders and exports of marine engineering equipment [25]