Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that financial market volatility is becoming a key determinant of global trade dynamics and economic outlook, placing the world economy in a more fragile state [1] - The report forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Growth - Global trade growth is expected to be around 4% at the beginning of 2025, driven by early imports in response to tariff adjustments and the expansion of service trade propelled by the digital economy [2] - Despite this growth, the fundamental trade growth rate is projected to hover between 2.5% and 3%, with financial factors increasingly influencing investment decisions and supply chain configurations [2] Group 2: Financial Dependency and Vulnerability - Over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, with the dollar maintaining a dominant position in international payments and trade settlements, making the global trade system sensitive to changes in interest rates and investor sentiment [2] - Developing countries face more pronounced impacts due to limited financing channels, with higher borrowing costs and unstable capital flows constraining their fiscal space [2] Group 3: Climate Impact on Vulnerable Economies - Climate-vulnerable countries incur additional burdens, with extreme weather events leading to an estimated extra interest expenditure of $20 billion annually, accumulating to over $212 billion since 2006 [3] - The dominance of the dollar in global finance has increased, with its share in the SWIFT payment system rising from 39% to approximately 50% over the past five years, further exposing developing countries to global financial cycles [3] Group 4: Recommendations for Economic Resilience - To enhance global economic resilience, the UNCTAD calls for institutional reforms, including improving financing conditions for developing countries, strengthening local currency financial markets, and refining cross-border payment systems [3] - A stable connection between trade and finance is essential for achieving lasting stability, necessitating a policy framework that balances development and sustainability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a strengthening trend against the US dollar (USD), supported by improvements in employment and persistent inflation, while facing challenges from commodity price volatility and uncertainties in iron ore demand [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's Q3 CPI rose to 3.2% year-on-year, with trimmed mean inflation at 3% [1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October, with an increase of 42,200 jobs, including a significant rise of 55,000 full-time positions [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to resilient inflation and employment data [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative stance is providing an advantage to the AUD, with an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, although Chairman Powell indicated that rate cuts are not guaranteed, which may create policy expectation volatility [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - China's iron ore imports exceeded 100 million tons in October, marking the fifth consecutive month above this threshold, while Brent crude oil prices are declining, partially offsetting the AUD's commodity-related support [1][2] - Structural contradictions in the Australian economy and fluctuations in external demand are constraining the AUD's upward movement, with rising inflation driven by housing and electricity costs potentially suppressing consumer spending [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - There is a notable divergence among institutions regarding the future of the AUD, with Oxford Economics predicting a potential rate cut by the RBA in 2026, while Capital Economics believes faster rate cuts by the Fed will support the AUD [2] - Technical indicators show that the AUD has formed a consolidation platform around 0.6550, with a bullish signal emerging from the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6580-0.6600, with support levels at 0.6550-0.6560, and future movements will depend on upcoming data releases from the Fed and Australian inflation figures [2]

报告指出，全球贸易逾90%依赖银行融资。美元流动性与跨境支付系统对国际贸易活动同样至关重 要。这种对金融渠道的深度依赖使贸易和全球金融货币环境紧密相连。主要金融中心利率变动或投资者 情绪波动，都可能影响全球贸易量。报告还强调了大宗商品市场，尤其是粮食市场上日益增强的金融因 素，其定价越来越反映金融策略而非供求关系。 联合国贸易和发展会议(贸发会议)12月2日发布的《2025年贸易和发展报告》预计，2025年全球经 济增长将放缓至2.6%，低于2024年的2.9%。报告重点关注了金融对贸易的影响，指出金融市场波动对 全球贸易的影响力几乎与实体经济活动相当，并影响全球的发展前景。 报告认为，由于发展中经济体在全球金融市场中的作用依然有限，所以他们也面临日益上升的压 力，包括更高的融资成本、更易受资本流动突变影响，以及日益加剧的气候相关金融风险。这些因素限 制了维持发展中经济体增长所需的财政和投资空间。报告指出，地缘政治格局与政策转向正重塑全球化 进程，而金融体系必须调整以更好地服务实体经济需要。 联合国贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，研究结果表明金融环境正日益主导全球贸易走向，"贸易不 仅是一条供应链，更是信贷额度、 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Guomao Holdings Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 13 billion RMB, aiming to enhance Shanghai's influence in the domestic and international bulk commodity trade sector [3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Guomao has a registered capital of 13 billion RMB, with major shareholders including Shanghai International Group (3 billion RMB, 23.08% stake) and Shanghai Port Group (2 billion RMB, 15.38% stake) [3][4]. - The company covers over 20 business areas, including trade brokerage, domestic trade agency, and import-export activities, focusing on commodities such as metal ores, gas, agricultural products, and chemical products [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Intent - The establishment of Shanghai Guomao is part of Shanghai's strategy to create a competitive local platform for pricing in the global bulk commodity market, especially amid increasing price volatility due to geopolitical factors [6][8]. - The company aims to integrate resources across various sectors, transitioning from decentralized operations to a more collaborative and efficient model in the trade industry [7][8]. Group 3: Leadership and Expertise - The chairman, Zheng Yuanhu, has extensive experience in industrial operations and capital management, while the president, Luo Dongyuan, brings nearly 30 years of expertise in bonds, fixed income, and bulk commodities [4][5]. - This combination of trade background and financial capability positions Shanghai Guomao to effectively manage risks and enhance its service offerings in the bulk commodity trade [5][6]. Group 4: Future Goals - By 2027, Shanghai aims to exceed a bulk commodity trade scale of 10 trillion RMB, with a focus on establishing "Shanghai prices" as a benchmark in the global market [6][7]. - Shanghai Guomao is expected to play a crucial role in achieving this goal by promoting standardization and digitalization in bulk commodity trade [6][8].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in the import of major bulk commodities at the Zhoushan port in Zhejiang, which accounted for approximately 150 million tons, or 7.1% of the national total, from January to October this year [1] - In October alone, the port imported 16.1 million tons of bulk commodities, marking a year-on-year increase of 22%, indicating a steady improvement in resource allocation capabilities [1] Summary by Sections - **Policy and Development**: The establishment of the national first bulk commodity resource allocation hub in Zhejiang was approved by the State Council on November 8 last year, aimed at enhancing the storage, transportation, processing, and trading of bulk commodities [1] - **Customs Innovations**: Hangzhou Customs has focused on optimizing regulatory models and has introduced several innovative measures to expedite customs clearance for bulk commodities, contributing to the hub's development [1] - **Logistics Efficiency**: The implementation of the "zone-port linkage" business model has optimized vehicle clearance processes, reducing the time for bulk commodities to enter and exit the zone by approximately 40%, which translates to a cost saving of about 40% for enterprises [1] - **Digital Transformation**: The port has achieved full-process digital handover for bonded ship fuel supply, becoming the first in the country and the third globally to do so, with the entire process taking less than five minutes [1]

Core Insights - In the first ten months of this year, the Zhoushan port in Zhejiang imported approximately 150 million tons of major bulk commodities, accounting for 7.1% of the national total imports [1] - In October alone, the port imported 16.1 million tons of bulk commodities, representing a year-on-year increase of 22%, indicating a steady improvement in resource allocation capabilities [1] Group 1: Policy and Development - The establishment of the national first bulk commodity resource allocation hub in Zhejiang was approved by the State Council on November 8 last year [1] - The Hangzhou Customs has focused on key areas such as storage, transportation, processing, trade, and international maritime services for bulk commodities, continuously optimizing regulatory models and introducing innovative reform measures [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The "Zone-Port Linkage" business model implemented by Hangzhou Customs has optimized vehicle clearance processes, enhancing logistics efficiency [1] - After the implementation of "Zone-Port Linkage," the time for bulk commodities to enter and exit the zone has been reduced by approximately 40%, resulting in a cost saving of about 40% for enterprises [1] - The port has achieved full smart supervision, with an online system efficiently issuing electronic fuel delivery orders in under five minutes, making Zhoushan the first port in the country and the third globally to realize a fully digital handover process for bonded ship fuel [1]

4 11月27日，上海国茂控股有限公司（简称国茂控股）揭牌成立。上海市委副书记、市长龚正为国茂控股揭牌。 揭牌仪式上，国茂控股发布首批产业、金融、股东生态合作伙伴，着力构建全产业链合作生态圈。 据悉，国茂控股是上海市政府批准成立的市属一级国有企业。公司探索建立以现货贸易为基础、金融期货为特色，以上游资源投资、中游供应链管理、下游 产业布局为经营体系的业务发展模式，培育构建产业研究、数字化赋能、国际化经营、风险控制等核心能力，积极参与全球大宗商品资源配置。 根据此前上海国际港务（集团）股份有限公司发布的公告，上海国茂控股有限公司注册资本130亿元人民币，其中国际集团出资30亿元，持股23.08%；上港 集团出资20亿元，持股15.38%；其他8家上海市国资监管企业或其指定主体合计出资80亿元，持股61.54%。 当天下午，上海市国资委召开建设国际化大宗商品贸易投资商座谈会。上海市国资委党委书记、主任贺青在会上表示，组建国茂控股是上海加快建设"五个 中心"、推动国际贸易中心提质升级的关键举措。在当前全球产业链供应链加速重构、国际贸易格局深刻调整的时代背景下，上海要推动发展模式从传统贸 易向现代贸易加快转型，构建" ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Guomao Holdings Co., Ltd. was officially established on November 27, with the aim of creating an internationalized new type of bulk commodity trade and investment platform, enhancing Shanghai's role in global commodity resource allocation [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Guomao Holdings is a state-owned enterprise approved by the Shanghai municipal government, focusing on a business development model based on spot trading and characterized by financial futures [1] - The company aims to cultivate core capabilities in industry research, digital empowerment, international operations, and risk control [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The establishment of Guomao Holdings is expected to strengthen Shanghai's role as a central node in domestic circulation and a link in the dual circulation strategy, enhancing its trading and pricing functions in the bulk commodity sector [1] - The initiative contributes positively to the "Five Centers" construction in Shanghai, particularly in upgrading the international trade center [1] Group 3: Partnerships and Ecosystem - During the unveiling ceremony, Guomao Holdings announced its first batch of partners in industry, finance, and shareholder ecosystems, focusing on building a comprehensive industry chain cooperation ecosystem [1]

转自：北京日报客户端 据"上海发布"微信公众号消息，11月27日，上海国茂控股有限公司揭牌成立。上海市委副书记、市长龚 正为国茂控股揭牌。 | 4 | 东浩兰生(集团) | 货币 | 10. 00 | 7. 69% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 有限公司 | | | | | 5 | 上海汽车工业(集 | 货币 | 10. 00 | 7. 69% | | | 团)有限公司 | | | | | 6 | 上海华谊控股集团 | 货币 | 10. 00 | 7. 69% | | | 有限公司 | | | | | 7 | 申能(集团)有限 | 货币 | 10. 00 | 7.69% | | | 公司 | | | | | 8 | 光明食品(集团) | 货币 | 10. 00 | 7. 69% | | | 有限公司 | | | | | 9 | 上海国际信托有限 | 货币 | 10. 00 | 7. 69% | | | 公司 | | | | | 10 | 上海普陀国有资本 | 货币 | 10. 00 | 7.69% | | | 投资有限公司 | | | | 据介绍，国茂控股是上海市 ...

构建"全球贸易+产业组织+金融投资"的运营模式 上海市国资委党委书记、主任贺青指出，组建上海国茂控股有限公司是上海加快建设"五个中心"、推动国际贸易中心提质升级的关键举措。在当前全球产业 链供应链加速重构、国际贸易格局深刻调整的时代背景下，要推动发展模式从传统贸易向现代贸易加快转型，构建"全球贸易+产业组织+金融投资"的运营 模式，建设国际化大宗商品贸易投资商。 国茂控股党委书记、董事长郑元湖，党委副书记、总裁罗东原在座谈会上介绍了公司情况。国茂控股将立足上海金融要素富集、产业基础雄厚、跨境贸易便 利等综合优势，以现货贸易为基础、以金融期货为特色，强化关键资源、重点能源、高价值农产品的全球配置能力，在品类选择上聚焦战略价值高、市场规 模大、产业生态成熟、期现联动紧密的关键领域，系统构建产业研究、数字化赋能、国际化经营、风险控制四大核心能力，更好地服务战略性新兴产业高质 量发展。 l 7 0 C c 11 per E IAL inco il P 17-11 0 P ASSETTAT THE g S D A 下了 当天下午，上海市国资委召开建设国际化大宗商品贸易投资商座谈会。 上海国资出资130亿元设立一家新国企 ...