Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] - The model incorporates price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but no significant improvement signals were observed for July 2025[13] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages the stable proportional relationship between hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months to estimate future supply-demand gaps[14] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter} / \text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)} $[14] - Future potential supply is estimated as: $ \text{6-Month Potential Supply} = \text{Current Sow Inventory} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (6 Months Ago)} $[15] - Future demand is projected based on historical quarterly slaughter data[15] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this method effectively identifies hog price upward cycles[15] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth rates and calculates per-ton profit for the steel industry by considering steel prices and raw material costs[17] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model integrates steel prices with the costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights the industry's profit trends but indicates a negative profit growth rate for June 2025[21] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and designs allocation signals based on these changes[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - For the glass industry, the model calculates gross profit based on price and cost data[27] - For the cement industry, the model incorporates coal fuel price changes to predict profit growth rates[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively tracks profitability trends but maintains a neutral signal for both industries due to the lack of significant positive indicators[27] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth rates and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses variations in fuel and crude oil prices to calculate profit growth rates and cracking spreads[28] - Allocation signals are designed based on observed changes in oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model predicts stable profit growth for June 2025 but maintains a neutral signal due to the lack of significant upward trends in oil prices and drilling activity[35][38] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The model tracks the historical excess return of the coal industry relative to the Wind All-A Index, showing a declining profit trend for July 2025[13] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The model predicts a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply at 18,226 million heads and demand at 18,244 million heads[16] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The model forecasts a negative profit growth rate for June 2025, with no significant improvement in PMI rolling averages[21] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Gross profit for float glass continues to decline year-on-year as of June 2025[27] - **Cement Industry**: Profit growth is predicted to be positive for June 2025, driven by lower coal fuel prices[27] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Profit Growth**: The model predicts stable profit growth for the refining industry in June 2025, with oil prices and new drilling activity showing no significant upward trends[35][38]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Ba Yi Steel (600581) has shown a price increase of 4.07% this week, closing at 3.07 yuan as of June 27, 2025, with a total market capitalization of 4.724 billion yuan [1]. Company Announcements - Ba Yi Steel held its 2024 annual shareholders' meeting, where 9 proposals were approved, including the 2024 Board of Directors' work report. The 9th proposal related to related-party transactions was passed with over two-thirds approval from non-related shareholders, while the other proposals received majority approval [1]. - The company announced a buyback and cancellation of certain restricted stocks, totaling 5,793,600 shares from 206 incentive targets due to unmet performance targets for 2024, along with 909,160 shares from 28 individuals who retired or transferred, and 72,080 shares from 3 resigning individuals. Following the buyback, the total number of shares will decrease by 5,793,600, and the registered capital will reduce from 1,538,691,470 yuan to 1,532,897,870 yuan [1].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company Jiangsu Wujin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, while also announcing a bond issuance to fund a new project [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 2,651,650,094.54, representing a year-on-year decrease of 24.57% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 125,714,250.52, which is a significant decline of 64.25% compared to the previous year [2][4]. Group 2: Bond Issuance - The company announced a bond issuance totaling RMB 310,000,000.00, with a net fundraising amount of RMB 299,766,509.45 after deducting issuance costs [2]. - The raised funds will be allocated to a project aimed at producing 20,000 tons of high-end stainless steel seamless pipes [2]. Group 3: Management Changes - The company's chairman, Zhu Guoliang, resigned on May 14, 2024, and the vice chairman, Zhu Qi, has taken over the chairman's responsibilities [2][4]. - The company completed the election of the board of directors and supervisory board, along with the appointment of senior management personnel on August 5, 2024 [2]. Group 4: Credit Ratings - The company's credit rating is classified as "AA" with a stable outlook, while the "Wujin Convertible Bond" also holds an "AA" credit rating [2].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently surpassed the annual high set on March 18, 2025, and is approaching the high from October 8, 2024, indicating a significant market movement [1] - There is a noticeable divergence among various sectors, with banking, agriculture, personal care, military, chemical, transportation, and petrochemical industries showing a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [1] - Conversely, sectors such as steel, electronics, home appliances, telecommunications, computers, and electrical equipment have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [1] Group 2 - In the secondary industry analysis, financial (banking, insurance, diversified finance), military (naval equipment, ground weaponry), agriculture (animal health, agricultural products, planting, feed), precious metals, personal care products, and chemical pharmaceuticals show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 closing prices [4] - Sectors like home appliances, electrical equipment, TMT (television broadcasting, communication services, consumer electronics, semiconductors, optical electronics), general steel, and machinery (engineering machinery, automation equipment) have a lower proportion of stocks exceeding their March 18, 2025 levels [4] - Comparing to the October 8, 2024 closing prices, banking, motorcycles, military (ground weaponry, aerospace equipment), chemicals (plastics, non-metallic materials), and new consumption (entertainment products, personal care products, retail, accessories) show a higher proportion of stocks exceeding their previous levels [4]

Group 1 - Xiyec股份 plans to repurchase company shares with a total amount between 100 million and 200 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 21.19 yuan per share [1] - Bee Assistant intends to acquire the remaining 30% stake in Guangdong Fengdang Technology Co., Ltd. for 206 million yuan, aiming to integrate industry resources [2] - *ST Gongzhi received a decision from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the termination of its stock listing, with the last trading date expected to be July 10, 2025 [2] Group 2 - *ST Jingfeng will cancel the delisting risk warning and continue to implement other risk warnings, with its stock name changing from "*ST Jingfeng" to "ST Jingfeng" [3] - Doli Technology plans to acquire 52% of Kunshan Fagerland Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. for 91.4653 million yuan to enhance its product structure [5] - Jinma Amusement's vice president plans to reduce holdings by up to 269,500 shares, accounting for 0.17% of the total share capital due to personal financial needs [6] Group 3 - Lingang股份 intends to absorb and merge its wholly-owned subsidiary Beipiao Steel Pipe, which will result in the cancellation of its independent legal status [7] - Demai Chemical plans to sell up to 4.5 million shares of Aoke股份 through various trading methods [9] - Shengxiang Bio plans to acquire 10% of Hunan Shengweis Rui Biotechnology Co., Ltd. for 5 million yuan to enhance its industry chain layout in sepsis diagnostics [10] Group 4 - Ha Sanlian's directors and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 252,200 shares, accounting for 0.08% of the total share capital [11] - Luoxin Pharmaceutical's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 10.4421 million shares, representing 0.96% of the total share capital due to financial needs [13] - Hengbao股份's vice president plans to reduce holdings by up to 197,500 shares, accounting for 0.03% of the total share capital due to personal financial needs [15] Group 5 - Xianfeng Electronics' vice president plans to reduce holdings by up to 16,500 shares, accounting for 0.01% of the total share capital due to personal financial needs [16] - ST Jinyi will cancel other risk warnings, changing its stock name to "Jinyi Culture" and adjusting the daily price limit from 5% to 10% [16] - Vanke A completed the sale of all A-share treasury stock, raising 479 million yuan from the sale of 72.956 million shares [18] Group 6 - Taiji股份 is planning a change of control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock trading for up to two days [20] - Lio股份's directors and executives plan to reduce their holdings by up to 6.7688 million shares, representing 0.1% of the total share capital [23] - Yuhuan CNC's vice president plans to reduce holdings by up to 46,100 shares, accounting for 0.0296% of the total share capital due to personal financial needs [24] Group 7 - Huamin股份 plans to invest up to 100 million yuan to acquire approximately 8% of Tiantai Robotics [24] - Enjie股份's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 1.19% of the total share capital due to personal financial needs [26] - Guoxin Securities plans to acquire 96.08% of Wanhua Securities through the issuance of A-shares, with the review scheduled for June 19, 2025 [27]

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 重视稀土产业链的供给侧逻辑 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 23 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 08 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 | 2025-06-03 | | --- | --- | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | （2025 年第 22 周） | | | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，继续关注钢铁板 | 2025-05-11 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 19 周） | | 有关分 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates the revenue and profit growth rate of the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The pricing mechanism is determined by the long-term contract system, where the sales price for the next month is based on the last price index of the current month[10] - The model uses the year-on-year changes in price and capacity factors to estimate monthly revenue and profit growth rates[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability, but it relies heavily on the stability of the pricing mechanism and external factors like market demand[10][14] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts the hog supply-demand gap six months ahead based on the breeding sow inventory and historical slaughter coefficients[15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The slaughter coefficient is calculated as: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[15] - The potential supply six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Breeding Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6, YoY)} $[15] - The potential demand six months later is estimated as: $ \text{Potential Demand (t+6)} = \text{Hog Slaughter (t+6, YoY)} $[16] - **Model Evaluation**: Historical data shows that this model effectively identifies hog price upward cycles, making it a valuable tool for supply-demand analysis[16] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profit for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[18] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel to estimate profit growth rates[18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed profit analysis but is sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices and global demand[22] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability changes and generate allocation signals[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying short-term profitability trends but requires additional macroeconomic indicators for long-term predictions[30] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activities[31] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates profit growth rates and cracking spreads using variations in fuel and crude oil prices[31] - Allocation signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling activity[31] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive view of industry profitability but is highly dependent on volatile oil price movements[35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for June 2025 due to lower coal prices compared to the previous year[14] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: Predicted a balanced supply-demand scenario for Q4 2025, with potential supply and demand both estimated at 18,226 million hogs[17] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth Forecast**: Predicted a slight year-on-year profit decline for May 2025, with PMI rolling averages remaining flat[22] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year decline in gross profit for May 2025[30] - **Cement Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit growth for May 2025, driven by price recovery[30] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Predicted a year-on-year profit decline for May 2025 due to lower oil prices compared to the previous year[35] - **Oilfield Services**: Observed stable new drilling activity and lower oil prices compared to the previous year, maintaining a neutral outlook[38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The supply side of non-financial enterprises in the A-share market is still in a bottoming phase, with both inventory and capacity remaining weak, but there are signs of marginal recovery on the demand side [1][3][6]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by weak replenishment and expansion intentions, with inventory growth for Q1 2025 at -1.63% year-on-year and stock growth at -4.46%, both showing declines compared to 2024 [1][3]. - The capacity utilization rate for Q1 2025 is at 2.32, down 0.04 from 2024, marking 12 consecutive quarters of decline since mid-2022 [3]. - Expansionary capital expenditure for Q1 2025 has a year-on-year decline of 20.69%, the first negative value since 2018, indicating weak investment intentions among listed companies [3]. Industry Focus - Key industries to focus on include those with relatively tight supply and good profitability, those that have shown signs of recovery from the bottom, and those still on the left side of the turning point but entering the later stages of clearing [1][10]. - Specific industries identified for potential support to performance include metal products, broiler farming, entertainment products, and gaming, with only the entertainment products sector showing high levels of expansionary capital expenditure [1][70]. Detailed Industry Breakdown Cyclical Sector - Industries with tight supply include those with high capacity utilization and low inventory, indicating potential for profitability improvement [12]. - Industries at the bottom include construction materials, chemicals, and photovoltaic power, which are experiencing supply structure optimization [12][25]. Manufacturing Sector - Tight supply industries include cable components, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, and metal products, with low expansionary capital expenditure [26][40]. - Bottomed industries include the new energy chain and military electronics, which are likely to face hard constraints on future production capacity [26][37]. Consumer Sector - Tight supply industries include broiler farming and entertainment products, with the latter showing high expansionary capital expenditure [41][54]. - Bottomed industries include pharmaceuticals and food processing, with signs of marginal improvement in capacity utilization and profitability [41][49]. TMT Sector - Tight supply industries include gaming, with low expansionary capital expenditure, indicating hard constraints on future supply [55][69]. - Industries at the bottom include electronic components and security equipment, with potential for recovery in capacity utilization and profitability [55][63].