证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 6 月 19 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 一、宏观经济组： 事件： 6 月 19 日（星期四）2 点，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）2025 年第四次议息会 议。 点评： 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布了 2025 年的第四份利率决议。其中显示，有投 票权的 12 位 FOMC 委员全票通过，美联储决定将联邦基金利率区间维持在 4.25% —4.50%不变，这是美联储自去年 9 月开启降息周期以来再次暂停降息，符合市 场预期。 本次声明与 5 月相比，有两点不同：一是删掉了有关"经济前景的不确定性增加" 的说法，改成"不确定性已减弱但仍高"；二删掉了有关"失业和通胀均上升的 风险增加"的说法，重申"净出口波动影响数据但经济继续稳健扩张。" 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 5 页 晨会纪要 在点阵图中，以每次降息 25 个基点计算，与今年 3 月相比，19 位 FOMC 委 ...

Core Insights - The new energy storage market is experiencing a "gold rush" with significant advancements in technology and market growth [1][6] - CATL has positioned its energy storage business as a crucial second growth curve, alongside battery swapping and overseas markets [2][6] Company Developments - CATL announced the mass production and delivery of its 587Ah battery cell on June 10, marking a significant milestone in its energy storage technology [1] - At the Munich Battery Storage Exhibition, CATL unveiled the TENER Stack, a 9MWh ultra-large capacity energy storage system solution [2] - In 2024, CATL is projected to achieve a global market share of 36.5% in energy storage battery shipments, maintaining its position as the market leader for four consecutive years [2] Financial Performance - CATL's energy storage battery system sales are expected to reach 93GWh in 2024, generating approximately 57.29 billion yuan in revenue, which accounts for 15.83% of the company's total revenue [2] - The gross margin for CATL's energy storage batteries is projected to be 26.84% in 2024, surpassing the 23.94% gross margin of its power batteries for the first time [2] Industry Challenges - The energy storage sector faces challenges such as product lifespan verification and safety concerns, with many projects underperforming compared to their claimed specifications [3][6] - There have been at least 167 reported safety incidents related to energy storage systems globally, highlighting the risks associated with large-scale battery deployments [3] Market Trends - The lithium battery storage installation capacity is expected to exceed 78GW by the end of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of over 147%, surpassing pumped hydro storage for the first time [6] - The total output value of China's new energy storage industry is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3 trillion yuan by 2030 [6] Competitive Landscape - Companies like BYD, CATL, and others are aggressively competing for market share, with BYD leveraging its blade battery technology and system integration capabilities [6] - Policy reforms and market-driven changes are reshaping the industry, with new regulations promoting independent participation of energy storage in the electricity market [7]

印度计划为30吉瓦时（GWh） 电池储能项目提供540亿印度卢比补贴。 ...

Group 1 - India plans to provide a subsidy of 54 billion Indian Rupees for a 30 GWh battery storage project [1]

Core Insights - The number of specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises in China exceeds 14,000, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang leading in quantity [3][5][25] - Financing events and amounts for these enterprises have significantly decreased, with a 55% drop in events and a 48.1% decline in disclosed financing amounts in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [9][12] - The number of IPOs for these enterprises has increased, with 19 IPOs in Q1 2025, marking a 26.7% year-on-year growth [24][25] Group 1: Development Overview - As of March 31, 2025, there are 14,687 specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises in China, with Jiangsu having 2,160, Guangdong 1,985, and Zhejiang 1,804 [5][25] - The top five cities with the highest number of these enterprises are Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Suzhou, and Hangzhou [5] Group 2: Financing Overview - In Q1 2025, there were 136 financing events for specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, a decrease of 55% year-on-year, with disclosed financing amounting to 9.85 billion RMB, down 48.1% [9][12] - Jiangsu, Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang are the leading regions in financing activity, with Shanghai having the highest financing amount exceeding 9 billion RMB [12] Group 3: IPO Insights - The number of IPOs for specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises in Q1 2025 was 19, reflecting a 26.7% increase year-on-year [24] - Among the 27 new IPOs in A-shares, 18 were specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, accounting for 66.7% [25] Group 4: M&A Activity - In Q1 2025, there were 29 disclosed M&A events involving specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, a significant increase of 262.5% year-on-year, with a total disclosed transaction amount of 5.16 billion RMB, up 26.8% [34] Group 5: Recent Developments - In March 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and 15 other departments issued guidelines to enhance compliance awareness and management among small and medium-sized enterprises, including specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises [39]

5月16日，中国石化公众开放日暨"清洁斯里兰卡"中国石化行动计划启动仪式现场。新华社记者 伍岳 摄 中国驻斯里兰卡大使戚振宏在致辞中表示，中国企业带来的新理念、新标准和新设施高度契合"清洁斯 里兰卡"愿景。中国将一如既往坚定支持斯里兰卡实现高质量发展，同斯方一道建设更高水平的中斯命 运共同体。 中石化兰卡能源公司总经理王海妮说，本次活动展现了中国石化积极响应斯政府战略以及"开门办企 业"服务民生的宗旨。 新华社科伦坡5月20日电（记者伍岳 车宏亮）斯里兰卡能源部长库马拉·贾亚科迪近日表示，斯里兰卡希 望同中方开展更密切能源合作，愿在落实好现有项目基础上，与中方一道探索在石油、风电、电池储能 技术等领域更多合作可能。 5月16日， 中国石化公众开放日暨"清洁斯里兰卡"中国石化行动计划启动仪式现场。新华社记者 伍岳 摄 16日，中国石化公众开放日暨"清洁斯里兰卡"中国石化行动计划启动仪式在斯里兰卡首都科伦坡举行。 两国嘉宾共同见证计划启动。据悉，在行动计划下，中国石化将分区域、分批次推进在斯150座加油站 网络的卫生设施升级。 贾亚科迪在启动仪式上说，本次活动体现了中方对斯方"清洁斯里兰卡"计划和可持续发展规划的 ...

Group 1: Huawei's HarmonyOS Computer - Huawei officially announced its first HarmonyOS computer, set to be released on May 19 at 14:30 [1] - The development of the HarmonyOS computer has spanned five years, divided into three phases: prototype phase (2021-2022), engineering phase (2022-2023), and commercial phase (2023-2025) [1] Group 2: Google AI Tools - Google is launching a new AI defense system to combat scams on Chrome, utilizing its built-in large language model, Gemini Nano [3][5] - The enhanced protection mode of Chrome's Safe Browsing offers double the protection against phishing and online threats compared to the standard mode [5] Group 3: Tesla's Trademark Issues - The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) rejected Tesla's application to trademark "Robotaxi," citing that the term is too generic [6] - Tesla's application for the "Cybercab" trademark is currently on hold due to similar applications from other companies [6] Group 4: Bill Gates' Philanthropic Goals - Bill Gates announced a new charitable goal to donate nearly all his wealth within the next 20 years, with the Gates Foundation set to permanently close by the end of 2045 [8] - The foundation will focus on three core goals: ending preventable maternal and infant deaths, combating deadly infectious diseases, and helping millions escape poverty [8] Group 5: Baidu and Shenzhou Car Rental Partnership - Baidu's Apollo and Shenzhou Car Rental have formed a strategic partnership to launch the world's first autonomous vehicle rental service [9] - The collaboration aims to promote the application of autonomous driving technology in various urban tourism scenarios over the next 3 to 5 years [9] Group 6: Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun revealed that the production version of the SU7 Ultra is challenging the Nürburgring racetrack [10] - The SU7 Ultra production model is equipped with a racing package and a full roll cage for track conditions [10] Group 7: Lenovo's New Product Launch - Lenovo's Legion brand has entered the bicycle market, launching several electric-assisted road and mountain bikes [11][12] - The road bike models feature an 80 km range and a 200W motor, along with various carbon fiber and aluminum options [12] Group 8: CATL's Energy Storage System - CATL unveiled the world's first 9MWh energy storage system, TENER Stack, at the 2025 European Battery Storage Exhibition [13] - The TENER Stack boasts a 45% increase in volume utilization and a 50% increase in energy density compared to traditional systems, capable of charging 150 electric vehicles [13] Group 9: Nintendo's Switch 2 Sales Forecast - Nintendo expects to sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 in its first fiscal year, with a total of 45 million software sales anticipated [15][16] - The company also projects that sales of the original Switch will reach 4.5 million units, a decrease from the previous year's 10.8 million units [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported approximately $432 million in revenue for Q2 2025, exceeding expectations due to faster project milestone achievements [9][30] - Adjusted gross profit was $45 million, resulting in an adjusted gross profit margin of approximately 10.4%, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit margins [30] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased to $110 million, with a revised guidance for ARR of $145 million [9][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog at the end of the quarter was approximately $4.9 billion, including $200 million in contracts added during the quarter [9][20] - The company anticipates a strong ramp-up in order volume, particularly in Australia, as it enters the second half of the fiscal year [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. electricity demand is projected to grow by 11% through 2030, indicating a significant increase in annual energy storage capacity [14] - Battery storage capacity in Australia is expected to reach 51 gigawatt hours by February 2030, up from 7 gigawatt hours in 2024 [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its SmartStack technology and U.S. domestic content strategy to create value for stakeholders [21][22] - The domestic content strategy aims to meet local manufacturing requirements under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), providing tariff incentives and creating jobs [25][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term growth prospects for energy storage despite current tariff-related uncertainties [11][39] - The company believes that the high tariff levels on Chinese imports are unlikely to be sustainable and expects a return to normalized contracting activity in the U.S. market [12][39] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with over $1 billion in liquidity, including $610 million in cash, providing a strong financial foundation [10][32] - The revised guidance for fiscal 2025 reflects a lower revenue expectation due to tariff impacts, with a midpoint guidance of $2.7 billion [34][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on AESC ramp and capacity - Management clarified that the Tennessee facility has two lines, each with a capacity of 3 to 3.5 gigawatt hours, allowing for a combined annualized run rate of 12 gigawatt hours through a mix of domestic and imported batteries [45][48] Question: Mix of contracts in pause state - Approximately half of the $700 million in paused contracts were already in backlog, while the other half were under advanced negotiations [97][98] Question: Domestic content strategy and customer willingness - Management indicated that customers are hesitant to commit to fully domestic offerings due to uncertainty around future tariff negotiations with China [109][111] Question: Competitive landscape and tariff impacts - The competitive landscape remains intense, with management noting that uncertainty has made it difficult to gauge competition levels [70][71] Question: Global alternative cell supply situation - Management acknowledged that while there is some production outside of China, the majority of cell production still comes from China, making diversification challenging [76][78]

4月24日，远航精密（833914.BJ）披露2024年年度报告及2025年第一季度报告。2024年，公司实现营业 总收入8.52亿元，同比增长5.25%；归母净利润6744.28万元，同比增长113.37%；扣非净利润5454.54万 元，同比增长143.07%。公司拟每10股派现1元（含税）。2025年第一季度，公司营业收入为2.16亿元， 同比上升25.8%；归母净利润为1636万元，同比上升36.7%；扣非归母净利润为1562万元，同比上升 81.6%。 远航精密在镍基导体材料领域的技术优势和行业积累使其在市场中占据主导地位。公司专注于高精度镍 带、箔产品及精密结构件的研发，并凭借一站式的供应体系，产品广泛应用于新能源汽车、电池储能、 消费电子、电动工具、电动二轮车、航空航天、金属纪念币等多个高增长行业。 技术创新是公司核心竞争力的源泉。2024年，公司不断推动精密镍导体材料的技术突破，持续提升产品 性能，并增强了在高端应用领域的市场占有率。报告期内，公司共拥有发明专利及实用新型专利89项， 其中发明专利12项。 公告显示，公司产品广泛应用于锂电池及二次电池领域。随着电池技术的持续创新，新能源汽车、储 ...

Core Viewpoint - CATL has secured significant battery storage orders, highlighting its leadership in the energy storage market and its strategic focus on emerging markets and technology standards [1][4]. Group 1: Major Orders and Collaborations - Quinbrook Infrastructure Partners announced a collaboration with CATL to deploy a 3GW/24GWh energy storage system in Australia, marking a substantial order for CATL [1]. - CATL has already secured 43GWh of overseas energy storage orders as of early 2025, showcasing its dominance in the sector [1]. - At the Abu Dhabi Sustainable Development Week, Masdar selected CATL as the preferred supplier for a 19GWh battery energy storage system, utilizing advanced TENER technology [2]. - In April 2024, CATL signed a long-term procurement agreement for 350MWh of liquid-cooled storage batteries for the Japanese market [2]. - A contract was signed with Grenergy in October 2024 for a 1.25GWh EnerX battery storage system for a project in Chile [2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus Areas - CATL is focusing on two main directions in its energy storage efforts: capturing emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and Australia, and defining technology standards [4]. - The introduction of the world's first true 8-hour lithium-ion battery storage system is a significant step towards upgrading the industry from "short-term regulation" to "long-term regulation" [4].