2025 年 5 月 12 日 行业研究 "五一"假期人形机器人在多地亮相，工程机械景气度持续复苏 ——机械行业周报 2025 年第 18-19 周（2025.4.28-2025.5.11） 机械行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 联系人：夏天宇 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 要点 重点子行业观点 人形机器人： 5 月 7 日，"联想 Tech World 2025 创新科技大会"在上海世博中心举行，会上"联 想乐享壹号"人形机器人正式亮相。实景演示中，该机器人表演了一段太极拳，展 ...

2025 年 5 月 7 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】盈利探底回升，科技板块景气度上行——A 股及港股财报分析 A 股 2024 年盈利增速回落，但 2025Q1 盈利增速显著回升。全部 A 股 2024 年归母 净利润同比下降2.3%，较2024年前三季度归母净利润增速回落2.4pct，而其2025Q1 归母净利润同比增长 3.6%，较 2024 年全年归母净利润增速回升 5.9pct。此外，港 股方面，2024H2 港股盈利增速较 2024H1 回升，恒生科技盈利保持高增。 市场基准利率以政策利率为中枢运行既是健全市场化利率调控机制的应有之义，也是 内嵌于"牵 OMO 利率之一发而带动各市场利率全身"的必然选择。即便没有美国加 征高额关税等事件，今年一季度以来的"正偏离"亦将向常态回归，而 4 月份相关事 件的出现加速了这一过程的到来。 行业研究 【汽车】新势力改款+新车相继发布，关注节后终端优惠变化——特斯拉与新势力 4 月销量跟踪报告(买入) 4 月车市表现平稳，新车上市/老车型终端优惠持续提振新势力销量，五一新势力购车 权益总体稳定，1）预计以旧换新驱动的 2025E 国内 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on high dividend sectors including regional banks, railways, telecommunications, publishing, construction, and environmental protection industries [1][5][10] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategy**: - Trading investors should reduce dividend holdings, while long-term investors can switch within high dividend assets, focusing on sectors with lower congestion and strong fundamentals [1][3] - Quantitative models show a neutral stance on dividend assets due to mixed influences from market trends and interbank transaction volumes [6] - **Insurance Capital**: - Insurance funds are expected to purchase approximately 800-900 billion yuan in dividend stocks in 2024, aiming to allocate 5% of total assets to dividend investments [1][9] - High dividend stocks are seen as opportunities for insurance capital to compensate for cash shortfalls, with a preference for stable dividends and reasonable valuations [7][8] - **Sector Performance**: - The highway sector showed good performance in Q1 2025, with recommendations for specific stocks like Anhui Expressway and Guangdong Expressway [1][10][11] - The logistics park sector is benefiting from marginal recovery in real estate, while the port sector is advised to be cautious due to tariff impacts [1][10] - In the construction and building materials sector, cement and fiberglass profitability is improving, with recommendations for Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Liansu, and Shifeng Cement [1][12] - **Banking Sector**: - The banking sector continues to exhibit strong dividend logic, with regional banks showing resilience while large banks face some performance differentiation due to bond market fluctuations [20][22] - The overall stability of bank earnings is noted, with improvements in net interest margins and a stable dividend payout [21][22] - **Telecommunications**: - Telecom operators are diversifying into AI and cloud computing to offset declines in traditional business, with expected cost growth slowing down in 2025 [23][24][25] - Dividend yields for major telecom companies are projected to remain between 5% and 6%, with significant dividend growth anticipated [25] - **Education and Publishing**: - The education publishing sector is showing stable performance, with some companies achieving growth in net profits despite challenges [26][27] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain stable, with leading companies achieving higher ratios [27] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **High Dividend Stocks Recommendations**: - Specific high dividend stocks recommended include Anhui Expressway (A-share 3.5%, H-share 5.5%), Guangdong Expressway (A-share 3.7%), and Zhejiang Huhangyu (H-share 6.4%) [11] - In the logistics sector, Shenzhen International is highlighted for its strong profit growth and high dividend yield [11] - **Future Projections**: - The construction sector is expected to see improved profitability, with a focus on structural and regional plans [12] - The railway sector is projected to maintain high investment levels, with significant demand for rail transit equipment [17][18] - **Market Dynamics**: - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with potential volatility due to tariff impacts and corporate earnings uncertainties [3][5] - The insurance sector's approach to dividend stocks is characterized by selective buying during market downturns, focusing on quality over quantity [9][10]

中国通号发布一季报，2025 年 Q1 实现营收 67.34 亿元（yoy+2.84%、 qoq-42.47%），归母净利 5.62 亿元（yoy-7.08%、qoq-50.56%），扣非净利 5.57 亿元（yoy-6.30%）。一季度为轨交设备公司确收较少的季度，公司业 绩基本符合预期。在轨交新增需求持稳情况下，更新改造需求有望为公司带 来业绩持续增厚，海外业务与低空经济有望开辟公司远期新增长曲线。维持 公司"买入"评级。 25Q1 利润率有所承压，费用率有效控制 公司 25Q1 毛利率 27.23%，yoy-0.18pct。25Q1 净利率 9.74%，yoy-1.21pct。 期间费用率方面，25Q1 期间费用率为 15.10%，yoy-0.39pct。分项来看， 公司 25Q1 销售费用率 2.44%，yoy-0.22pct；研发费用率 5.64%， yoy-0.11pct；管理费用率 7.29%，yoy-0.17pct；财务费用率-0.26%， yoy0.11pct。公司毛利率与净利率略有承压，主要系产品结构有所调整，计 提部分信用减值损失所致。公司控费效果有所显现，费用率略有下降。 证券研究报告 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，截至4月30日上午，A股上市公司2024年年报和2025年 一季报业绩基本披露完毕(披露率99.8%)。受政策效果持续显现以及科技创新趋势驱动，整体A股盈利增 速转正。大类行业中信息技术、消费服务增速相对领先，TMT、资源品和中游制造业边际改善。推荐 关注业绩增速相对较高、自由现金流边际改善的领域。 招商证券主要观点如下： 利润端：一季度上市公司业绩边际改善。根据一致可比口径和整体法测算，A股2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1 单季度净利润增速依次为3.7%/-15.7%/3.2%，非金融石油石化2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度净利润增速 为-10.5%/-50.2%/4.5%。 收入端：全部A股单季度收入增速较24Q4放缓，但仍高于24Q3，延续改善。全部A股 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.0%/1.4%/-0.3%，非金融石油石化板块 2024Q3/2024Q4/2025Q1单季度收入增速依次为-2.9%/1.2%/0.5%。海外营收增幅扩大，海外营收占收入 的比例持续提升。 25年一季度A股盈利回暖主要受 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·轨交设备Ⅱ 中国通号（688009） 2025 年一季报点评：营收稳步增长，铁路/城 轨新签订单增长可观 买入（维持） 2025 年 Q1 公司实现营收 67.34 亿元，同比+2.84%；实现归母净利润 5.62 亿元，同比-7.08%；实现扣非归母净利润 5.57 亿元，同比-6.30%。分业务 看：2025Q1 公司铁路业务实现营收 34.14 亿元，同比-4.05%；城轨业务实 现营收 19.65 亿元，同比+21.66%；海外业务实现营收 2.99 亿元，同比 +66.91%；工程总承包业务实现营收 10.10 亿元，同比-11.70%；其他业务 实现营收 0.12 亿元，同比-7.13%。2025Q1 公司收入端有所提升，主要由 城轨业务与海外业务增长拉动；归母净利润同比下滑，主要系 2024Q1 冲 回 0.67 亿元信用减值损失，而 2025Q1 公司计提了 0.05 亿元信用减值损 失，剔除该部分影响后 2025Q1 公司归母净利润同比小幅提升。 新签合同方面，2025Q1 公司累计新签合同 72.13 亿元，同比-36.51%。 其中铁路新签合同 42.34 亿 ...

Group 1 - Yilida plans to repurchase shares worth 30 to 50 million yuan for employee stock ownership plans, with a maximum price of 6.5 yuan per share [1] - Yinglian shares two major shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 5% [1][2] - Zhongbing Hongjian reports a net loss of 327 million yuan for 2024, with a revenue decline of 25.29% [2][3] Group 2 - Zhongke Electric reports a net profit increase of 626.56% for 2024, with a revenue growth of 13.72% [3][4] - Yong'an Futures reports a net profit decline of 21.07% for 2024, with a revenue decrease of 8.76% [5][6] - Yongjie New Materials reports a net profit increase of 34.28% for 2024, with a revenue growth of 24.71% [7][8] Group 3 - Xibu Securities reports a net profit increase of 20.38% for 2024, despite a revenue decline of 2.64% [9][10] - Jinying Heavy Industry reports a net profit decline of 35.54% for 2024, with a slight revenue increase of 1.13% [10][11] - Haineng Industry reports a net profit decline of 40.45% for 2024, despite a revenue growth of 16.26% [12][13] Group 4 - Penghui Energy reports a net loss of 252 million yuan for 2024, with a revenue increase of 14.83% [14][15] - Weiming Pharmaceutical reports a net loss of 137 million yuan for 2024, with a revenue decline of 16.14% [16][17] - Huachang Technology reports a net profit increase of 184.26% for 2024, with a revenue growth of 6.74% [18][19] Group 5 - Ancar Detection reports a net loss of 213 million yuan for 2024, with a revenue decline of 3.05% [20][21] - Saiwei Intelligent reports a net loss of 507 million yuan for 2024, with a significant revenue decline of 68.03% [22][23] - Qinglong Pipe Industry reports a net profit increase of 976.43% for 2024, with a revenue growth of 36.71% [24][25] Group 6 - Huayin Electric reports a net loss of 113 million yuan for 2024, with a revenue decline of 16.00% [26][27] - Zhongqi New Materials reports a net profit decline of 61.59% for 2024, with a revenue decrease of 22.88% [28][29] - Guangzheng Eye Hospital reports a net loss of 175 million yuan for 2024, with a revenue decline of 16.94% [30][31] Group 7 - Zhenlan Instrument reports a net profit increase of 2.16% for 2024, with a revenue growth of 11.63% [32][33] - Zaiseng Technology reports a net profit increase of 137.99% for 2024, despite a revenue decline of 10.87% [34][35] - Haitai High-tech reports a net profit increase of 51.34% for 2024, with a revenue growth of 25.26% [36][37] Group 8 - Runze Technology reports a net profit increase of 1.62% for 2024, with a revenue growth of 0.32% [38][39]

方正证券燕翔：预计2 0 2 5年有更多增量资金进入A股市场； 中金公司：结合一季报业绩，关注三条投资主线。 方正证券 预计2025年有更多增量资金进入A股市场 GUIDE 摘要 华西证券：权益市场后续行情有望演绎超跌反弹； 华创证券：市场已处底部配置区间，量比价更重要； 华创证券策略团队最新报告认为，市场已处底部配置区间，关税冲击转向政策对冲的第二阶段。"中国 版平准基金"入市，提供足量流动性弹药，对于第一阶段市场风偏大幅下挫后的恐慌情绪将起到极为明 显的稳定作用。 此刻量比价更重要，无需恐慌。市场成交额在未来一到两周若能够维持在1.5万亿元以 上，那么当下的防守反击时刻也将在市场本身的量价交易中进一步积累延续。 中金公司 结合一季报业绩，关注三条投资主线 中金公司研报表示， 伴随政策落地和科技行情调整，在一季报业绩期到来期间，结合外部不确定性 的明显提升，当前投资者有望更关注基本面动向，把握基本面拐点以及修复弹性可能是当前重要的 投资思路。 业绩披露阶段重点关注：1）一季报和年报业绩可能超预期或环比改善的景气领域。2） 业绩逐步从周期底部回升、产业趋势明确的细分领域，例如半导体、消费电子、通信设备等TMT ...

3月26日晚间重要公告一览 中国铝业：2024年净利润同比增长85.38% 拟10派0.135元 3月26日晚，中国铝业（601600）发布2024年年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入2370.66亿元，同比增 长5.21%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为124亿元，同比增长85.38%；基本每股收益为0.723元/股，同 比增长85.86%。公司拟以现金方式按每股0.135元（含税）向全体股东派发2024年末期股息。 资料显示，中国铝业成立于2001年9月，主营业务是集铝土矿、煤炭等资源开采，氧化铝、炭素、原铝 和铝合金产品生产、销售、技术研发，国际贸易，物流产业，火力及新能源发电于一体的大型铝生产。 所属行业：有色金属–工业金属–铝 力合科创：2024年净利润同比下降25.41% 拟10派0.7元 3月26日晚，力合科创（002243）发布2024年年度报告，公司2024年实现营业收入23.21亿元，同比下降 7.75%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为2.45亿元，同比下降25.41%；基本每股收益为0.2028元/股，同 比下降25.39%。公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.7元（含税）。 资料显示 ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant breakthroughs in 2025, with mass production reaching the scale of thousands, which will drive the downstream supply chain into a phase of certainty and expansion [8] - The introduction of advanced AI models, such as Google's Gemini Robotics, enhances the capabilities of robots in understanding new situations and performing precise physical tasks [3] - The launch of new humanoid robots, such as Muks Robotics' Spaceo series and Dobot Atom, indicates a technological advancement in the humanoid robotics sector, focusing on industrial operations and service applications [4][7] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Google's DeepMind has released new AI models aimed at improving robot capabilities in real-world tasks, focusing on generality, interactivity, and flexibility [3] - Muks Robotics has introduced the Spaceo series, which includes models designed for industrial, social, and space tasks, showcasing advancements in AI systems [4] - The Genie Operator-1 model from Zhiyuan Robotics demonstrates strong generalization capabilities, reducing the data requirements for training robots [5] - The humanoid robot Tian Gong Xing Zhe, priced at 299,000 yuan, aims to reshape the research and education ecosystem for humanoid robots [7] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector maintains a stable outlook, with excavator sales in February 2025 showing a 52.8% year-on-year increase [13] - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to recover gradually due to the anticipated increase in infrastructure investment [13] - Key companies to watch include Zoomlion Heavy Industry, XCMG, and SANY Heavy Industry [13] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market in China shows a significant increase in the market sentiment index, indicating a positive outlook for demand [10] - The export of tractors has seen substantial growth, with a 49.6% increase in quantity year-on-year [10] Semiconductor Equipment - The domestic replacement of semiconductor equipment is becoming essential, with a projected revenue growth of 29% for semiconductor equipment companies in 2024 [16] - The emphasis on domestic production capabilities is expected to benefit leading equipment manufacturers [16] New Energy Equipment - The solar energy sector is experiencing a price adjustment and technological breakthroughs, which are expected to foster a healthier competitive environment [18] - Companies like Maiwei Co., Ltd. and Weidong Nano are recommended for investment in this sector [18] Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to accelerate in 2025, with developments in drone logistics and regulations supporting its growth [20] - Companies such as EHang Intelligent and Yingli Technology are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [21]