Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - In April, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.1% year-on-year, marking a relatively fast growth rate for 2024 [1] - The service production index increased by 6% year-on-year, with information and business services showing stable growth, outpacing the overall service sector [1] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Social retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year in April, driven by the effects of the old-for-new consumption policy, which contributed 1.4 percentage points to the total growth [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-on-year from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to the overall investment growth [2] High-tech Manufacturing and New Production Capacity - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points [4] - Key sectors such as aerospace equipment manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% respectively [4] Digital and Green Transformation - The added value of digital product manufacturing grew by 10% in April, with smart device manufacturing and electronic components experiencing accelerated growth [6] - New energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles showed remarkable production increases of 38.9% and 61.8% respectively [6] Consumer Market Trends - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 38.8%, while furniture and communication equipment also saw significant growth [10] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting a growing trend in e-commerce [10] Policy Impact on Consumption - The implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy and improvements in the consumption environment have significantly boosted the consumer market [12] - The demand for green and upgraded consumption continues to rise, contributing to the stability and recovery of the consumer market [12]

国家税务总局最新增值税发票数据显示，"五一"假期消费需求旺盛，增势良好。全国消费相关行业销售 收入同比增长15.2%。其中，在"以旧换新"政策带动下，家用电器和音像器材销售收入同比增长 167.5%，智能手机等消费电子产品纳入购新补贴范围，通信器材销售收入同比增长118%，家具销售收 入同比增长1.7倍。 ...

5 月行业配置关注：关税冲击修复与景气改善线索 20250427 摘要 • 财政政策更加落实，财政支出增速明显改善，为维持国内经济稳定提供支 撑，一季度消费边际改善，显示中国经济的韧性和结构性变化。 • 二季度出口受益于关税豁免期及转口贸易，预计基本面乐观。财政支出和 消费增速提升对股票市场有积极影响，内平准基金机制锁定向下空间，增 加市场向上弹性。 • 风险偏好回升依赖于人工智能、人形机器人、低空经济等新产业趋势的发 展，这些新兴产业为市场提供布局和投资机会，尤其在业绩真空期。 • 政治局会议强调稳定并活跃资本市场，支持未来积极变化预期。市场可能 向上突破，并体现为积极的产业趋势变化，特别是在 5 月份。 • 5 月份行业配置思路可从自上而下逻辑、八个维度打分模型及重点行业具 体推荐三方面分析，市场呈 V 型走势，消费和科技板块快速轮动。 • 一季度经济内生增长动能改善，消费服务表现突出，家电、汽车和通信器 材增长亮眼，受以旧换新及国补政策驱动。中高端制造业生产端保持较高 景气度。 • 5 月份市场偏好预计改善，布局关税影响趋缓及景气改善线索，关注前期 超跌且对美出口依赖度小的板块，以及受益于内需消费及自主 ...