1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 crushing seasons in India and Thailand, which suppresses sugar prices. However, due to the slightly slower production progress in Brazil currently and a high sugar - ethanol ratio, the expectation of a decline in Brazil's new crushing season output in the overseas market is increasing, causing price fluctuations after a sharp drop in the overseas market. The profit window for out - of - quota imports in the domestic market is open, and the domestic market is slightly stronger, but the rebound strength may be limited [4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of sugar is predicted to be between 5700 - 5900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 4.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0% [3] - **Inventory Management Strategies**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about sugar price drops, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5800 - 5850 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SR509C5900) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the sugar price rises [3] - **Procurement Management Strategies**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5750 - 5780 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (SR509P5700) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 15 - 20 to collect premiums and lock in the spot sugar purchase price if the sugar price drops [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions - The high expectation of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 crushing seasons suppresses sugar prices, while the situation in Brazil leads to price fluctuations in the overseas market. The domestic market is slightly stronger but has limited rebound potential [4] 3.3利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - As of the end of June, Guangxi's cumulative sugar sales reached 5.1406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 614,400 tons, with a sales - to - production ratio of 79.51%, a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. In June alone, sugar sales were 495,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 77,300 tons. Industrial inventory was 1.3244 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,800 tons [5] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) expects India's ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 crushing season to be between 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic sugar consumption from October to November 2025 [6] - China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixes [6] - As of the first half of May in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.466 million tons (a 20.24% decline). The cumulative sugar production was 3.989 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (a 22.68% decline) [6] - In May, the total import of syrup and premixes was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons, the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years [6] - Brazil has increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [6] - Trump said that Coca - Cola has agreed to use sugar as a beverage additive again in the United States [8] 3.4利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - In the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi's cumulative cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons, but the mixed sugar production was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons, with a sugar production rate of 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points [9] - Analysis agency JOB expects Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season to increase by 5% to 46 million tons [9] - Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 crushing season is expected to increase to 10.39 million tons [9] - India's monsoon has arrived 3 - 4 days earlier than usual, and the sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to recover strongly, reaching about 35 million tons [9] - In May, sugar imports were 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons, and the out - of - quota import profit window is open [9] 3.5 Sugar Market Data - **Base Difference**: On July 18, 2025, the base differences between different regions (Nanning, Kunming) and sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly changes. For example, the Nanning - SR01 base difference was 394, with a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 37 [10] - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and spreads between different sugar futures contracts (SR01, SR03, etc.) were presented. For example, the closing price of SR01 was 5656, with a daily increase of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 0.48% [11] - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On July 18, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in different regions (Nanning, Liuzhou, etc.) and the price differences between regions were shown. For example, the price in Nanning was 6050, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10 [12] - **Sugar Import Price Changes**: On July 18, 2025, the quota - within and out - of - quota import prices of sugar from Brazil and Thailand, as well as the price differences between domestic regions and imported sugar, showed daily and weekly changes [13]

Core Viewpoint - The sugar futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight weekly decline, while domestic consumption remains robust despite seasonal trends [1][3]. Market Overview - As of May 23, 2025, the main sugar futures contract closed at 5833 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of -0.44% [1]. - The opening price for the week was 5850 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 5882 yuan/ton and a low of 5826 yuan/ton [1]. Import Costs - The cost of importing Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 4679 yuan/ton (within quota, 15% tariff) or 5987 yuan/ton (outside quota, 50% tariff) [2]. - The cost of importing Thai raw sugar is about 4700 yuan/ton (within quota, 15% tariff) or 6015 yuan/ton (outside quota, 50% tariff) [2]. Import Statistics - In April 2025, China's sugar import volume was 134,847.788 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 94.89% and a year-on-year increase of 148.46% [2]. Supply and Demand Insights - The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is progressing well, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices, while domestic consumption remains strong [3]. - Current domestic sugar production is expected to increase by approximately 1.3 million tons compared to the previous year, with good sales in April leading to a reduction in industrial inventory [3]. - The market is entering a pure sales phase with the onset of summer demand, which may support prices despite international raw sugar pressures [3].

Core Insights - The ICE raw sugar futures experienced significant declines, with the May contract's large delivery volume drawing attention [1] - The delivery volume for the May contract reached 1.48 million tons, which is substantially higher than the five-year average, indicating a relatively abundant supply of physical raw sugar [3][4] - Despite the high delivery volume, it remains below last year's peak of 1.67 million tons, suggesting a slight easing of supply pressure compared to the extreme conditions of the previous year [4] Delivery Data Interpretation - The delivery volume of 1.48 million tons is 356,000 tons higher than the five-year average, indicating strong supply conditions [4] - The data shows that 91.6% of the delivered raw sugar originated from Brazil, reaffirming Brazil's dominant position as the largest producer and exporter of raw sugar [5] - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 45.87 million tons, marking a historical high according to the national supply company [5] Market Impact and Outlook - The large physical delivery is typically seen as a bearish signal for sugar prices, as it indicates ample supply in the spot market [8] - Market expectations regarding Brazil's abundant harvest have likely been factored into pricing, which may limit the actual impact of the delivery volume on prices [9] - The delivery volume being lower than last year's peak may provide some relief to the market, preventing further extreme supply pressure [9] - Other sugar-producing countries' conditions, such as India and Thailand, will also play a crucial role in balancing the supply dynamics [10] - Macroeconomic factors, including global economic growth and inflation, will influence sugar price trends [10] - Speculative fund flows in the futures market can amplify or reverse price trends based on fundamental conditions [11] Summary - The delivery volume of 1.48 million tons for the ICE May raw sugar contract, predominantly sourced from Brazil, highlights the current supply landscape [12] - While the volume confirms strong supply conditions, its lower level compared to last year's peak complicates the direct impact on prices [12] - Future sugar price movements will depend on a combination of Brazil's production and export performance, conditions in other major producing regions, global demand changes, macroeconomic factors, and speculative activities [12]

Group 1 - The current spot price of white sugar in Nanning is reported at 6210.00 CNY/ton, which is 233.00 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 5977.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market for white sugar closed at 5977.00 CNY/ton on April 28, with a slight increase of 0.12%, reaching a high of 5995.00 CNY/ton and a low of 5956.00 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 197,330 contracts [1] - Various prices for industrial-grade sugar are reported, with prices ranging from 1350 CNY/ton to 3000 CNY/ton depending on the supplier and location [1] Group 2 - Raizen, Brazil's largest sugar company, reported a cane crushing volume of 700,000 tons for Q4 of the 2024/25 fiscal year, with sugar production estimated between 84,000 to 88,000 tons [2] - The company's own sugar sales reached 969,000 tons, while ethanol sales were 788,000 cubic meters [2] - The cost of importing Brazilian raw sugar to China is approximately 4742 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 6070 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [2] Group 3 - Domestic sales rates are high, supporting sugar prices, while the raw sugar market shows weak trends, with drought conditions in Guangxi easing, leading to expectations of short-term price fluctuations [3] - The focus for the medium to long term is on the profit window for forward sugar imports [3]