【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月4日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%，PVC开工 率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏 低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40 美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季 度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前 出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份， 房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进 一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善 仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上 ...

Company Overview - Beihua Co., Ltd. (SZ 002246) announced that on November 4, 2025, it will accept investor research from institutions including China Merchants Fund, with key personnel such as the financial director and board secretary participating in the Q&A session [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Beihua's revenue composition is as follows: chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing accounted for 38.08%, other specialized chemical products manufacturing for 30.99%, and specialized equipment manufacturing for 30.93% [1] Market Capitalization - As of the report date, Beihua's market capitalization stands at 10.9 billion yuan [1] Industry Insights - A significant increase in overseas orders by 246% has been reported in the industry, covering over 50 countries and regions, indicating robust international demand [1] - Industry leaders have raised concerns about potential vicious competition as some companies are selling products at a loss [1]

Core Insights - Xingfa Group has achieved full production and sales of its iron phosphate products, with product performance ranking among the industry's top [1] - The utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate production capacity continues to improve, and the company has proactively developed fourth and fifth generation ultra-high pressure solid lithium iron phosphate products, making positive progress [1] - To further enhance product profitability and customer service capabilities, the company plans to add 50,000 tons/year of iron phosphate capacity at the beginning of next year and an additional 100,000 tons/year by mid-year [1]

Core Points - Zhuzhou Keno New Materials Co., Ltd. has terminated its IPO application after over two years of waiting, marking a significant event in the current IPO landscape [1][3] - A total of 98 companies have withdrawn their IPO applications this year, with the Beijing Stock Exchange having the highest number of withdrawals at 37 [1][4] - The tightening regulatory environment has led to a decrease in the number of IPO terminations compared to the previous year, indicating that companies may be better prepared before applying for listings [5][4] Company Summary - Zhuzhou Keno focuses on the purification technology and industrialization of III-V group chemical elements, primarily dealing with high-purity gallium, indium, bismuth, and tellurium [3] - The company aimed to raise approximately 588 million yuan for projects including a semiconductor high-purity materials production line and an advanced materials research center [3] - Despite its efforts, Zhuzhou Keno's IPO application was not approved after entering the inquiry phase on July 17, 2023, following its acceptance on June 21, 2023 [3][4] Industry Summary - The number of companies withdrawing their IPO applications has reached 98 this year, with a notable decrease from over 400 in the previous year, reflecting improved readiness among applicants [4][5] - The tightening of regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized accountability for companies during the IPO process, which may contribute to the decline in withdrawals [4] - The trend of companies facing multiple failed IPO attempts suggests underlying issues within these firms that have not been effectively addressed [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 407.74% in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a slight decline in revenue [1]. - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing a price increase, benefiting the company as an industry leader, with prices rising by 91.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company's lithium battery segment is progressing steadily, with profitability achieved in the first three quarters of 2025 and plans for substantial capacity expansion [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.729 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.75% year-on-year, while net profit reached 78 million yuan, a significant increase of 407.74% [1]. - For Q3 2025, revenue was 2.4 billion yuan, up 5.18% year-on-year and 7.62% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 27 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 157.93% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 299.43% [1]. Market Outlook - The average market price for lithium hexafluorophosphate reached 103,500 yuan per ton as of October 30, 2025, driven by strong demand from the new energy and energy storage sectors [2]. - The company has a current production capacity of 65,000 tons per year for lithium hexafluorophosphate and plans to expand by an additional 20,000 tons [2]. Capacity and Production - The lithium battery segment is set to achieve a production capacity of 22 GWh by the end of 2025, with plans to reach 30 GWh in Q1 2026 and approximately 50 GWh by the end of 2026 [3]. - Expected shipments for 2025 are around 10 GWh, with plans for 30 GWh in 2026, focusing on various sectors including power, two-wheeled vehicles, and energy storage [3]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward, with expected figures of 147 million yuan (down 47.4%), 233 million yuan (down 30.5%), and 266 million yuan (down 40.3%) respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.55 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.46%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.37 billion yuan, down 22.14% year-on-year [3][6] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.07% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.54% [3][6] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin improved year-on-year in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 19.14% and a net profit margin of 10.34% [3][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2025, the overall gross margin was 18.38%, and the net profit margin was 10.08%, both showing a decline of 1.63 and 2.03 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s expenses as a percentage of revenue for sales, management, finance, and R&D were 0.29%, 1.02%, 0.78%, and 2.24%, respectively, with slight increases year-on-year [3] Product Performance - The company’s revenue from new energy materials, chemical fertilizers, organic amines, and acetic acid and derivatives for Q1-3 2025 were 11.56 billion, 5.83 billion, 1.77 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan, respectively, with the chemical fertilizer segment showing a notable revenue increase of 11.01% year-on-year [2] - The production volumes for these segments were 3.57 million, 4.39 million, 424,200, and 1.15 million tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 12.40%, 30.16%, and 5.30% [2] Project Development - The company is progressing with its TDI project, with the environmental impact report for the 300,000 tons/year TDI project being publicly announced [3] - The company has successfully completed all processes for its 200,000 tons/year BDO project, which has entered the trial production phase [3] Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.15 billion, 3.93 billion, and 4.48 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 17.5, 14.0, and 12.3 times [3][4]

Core Points - The company has approved a guarantee amounting to 10 million RMB for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ordos Junzheng, within the estimated guarantee limit for 2025 [1][2] - The total estimated guarantee limit for 2025 is set at 16.7 billion RMB, which includes 4.1 billion RMB for subsidiaries with an asset-liability ratio of 70% or more, and 12.6 billion RMB for those below this threshold [1][6] - The guarantee is intended to support the operational development of the subsidiary and is deemed to align with the company's overall interests and development strategy [5][6] Guarantee Overview - As of October 31, 2025, the company has utilized a portion of the estimated guarantee limit for the year [2] - The guarantee agreement involves the company as the guarantor, Agricultural Bank of China as the creditor, and Ordos Junzheng as the debtor [3] - The guarantee covers all debts including principal, interest, penalties, and any costs incurred by the creditor to enforce the debt [3][4] Guarantee Details - The principal amount guaranteed is 300 million RMB, with a joint liability guarantee structure [4] - The guarantee period extends three years from the debt maturity date, with provisions for extensions if agreed upon by the creditor and debtor [4] Board Approval - The board of directors approved the guarantee limit with unanimous support during meetings held on April 25 and May 16, 2025 [6] - The board believes that the guarantee is necessary for the operational funding needs of the subsidiary and is manageable within the company's risk profile [6] Cumulative Guarantee Status - As of the announcement date, the total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to 7.625 billion RMB, representing 27.99% of the company's latest audited equity [7] - The company has not provided guarantees to controlling shareholders or related parties, and there are no overdue guarantees [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Baiao Chemical's stock price has dropped by 5.19%, currently trading at 31.26 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 22.077 billion CNY [1] - Baiao Chemical, established on September 22, 2003, and listed on February 6, 2017, specializes in the research, production, and sales of isothiazolinone-based industrial biocides [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes industrial biocides at 54.95%, semiconductors at 44.36%, key components and consumables at 0.23%, by-products at 0.23%, and others at 0.22% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Huatai Baoxing Fund has a significant position in Baiao Chemical, with its Huatai Baoxing Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund A (021792) holding 70,000 shares, accounting for 5.03% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has reported a floating loss of approximately 119,700 CNY as of the current date [2] - The Huatai Baoxing Industrial Upgrade Mixed Fund A was established on September 24, 2024, with a current scale of 19.6441 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 53.88% [2]

甲醇日报 | 2025-11-04 供应压力持续，压制甲醇价格 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润600元/吨（-15）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1980元/吨（-25），内蒙北线基差437元/吨（+12），内蒙南线2000元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2195元/吨（-25）， 鲁南基差252元/吨（+12）；河南2050元/吨（-30），河南基差107元/吨（+7）；河北2155元/吨（+0），河北基差272 元/吨（+37）。隆众内地工厂库存376060吨（+15700），西北工厂库存231300吨（+12300）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 215558吨（-92），西北工厂待发订单113600吨（-6400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2102元/吨（-55），太仓基差-41元/吨（-18），CFR中国249美元/吨（-8），华东进口价差-19元/ 吨（+31），常州甲醇2285元/吨；广东甲醇2125元/吨（-40），广东基差-18元/吨（-3）。隆众港口总库存1506470吨 （-5730），江苏港口库存824300吨（-26200），浙 ...

Core Viewpoint - LG Chem has signed a joint development agreement with Sinopec for sodium-ion battery materials, aiming to diversify their sodium-ion battery business for global energy storage systems (ESS) and electric vehicle markets [1] Group 1 - The collaboration will focus on expanding into clean energy and high-value-added materials [1] - The partnership targets both the Chinese market and global markets [1]