Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend in January 2026, with major indices showing gains, particularly the ChiNext 50 and CSI 500, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8% [6][12][22] - The market is expected to enter a short-term correction phase before the Spring Festival, influenced by tightening liquidity and reduced trading enthusiasm among investors [4][38] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market typically performs better in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival, with a 75% probability of gains compared to less than 45% before the holiday [38][40] Group 2 - In the upcoming spring market, small-cap stocks are anticipated to outperform, driven by increased risk appetite and the influx of retail investor capital [52][54] - The focus should be on growth and cyclical sectors, with industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and communications expected to perform well in February [2][54] - The Hong Kong market is advised to adopt a "growth + value" strategy, benefiting from earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and supportive policies [2][65] Group 3 - The spring market is characterized by a dual focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with historical trends showing that both categories often perform well during this period [54][61] - The technology sector, particularly AI and commercial aerospace, is highlighted as a key area for investment, with potential catalysts expected to drive performance [61][64] - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting from being driven by capital to being driven by earnings, indicating a transition towards long-term value investing [2][65]

转自：新华财经 本周回顾 • 股票市场 本周（1月26日至1月30日）A股市场主要宽基指数悉数下跌。其中，上证指数周度下跌0.44%，深证成指周度下跌1.62%，创业板指周度下跌0.09%，新华500 指数周度下跌0.57%。新华500指数本周波动加大，开盘报5354.57点，至1月30日收盘报5306.68点，全周振幅3.01%，成交额为5.11万亿元。 大宗商品方面，在1月的最后一个交易周，贵金属市场走出罕见极端行情，黄金一路突破数道整百关口逼近5600美元／盎司，白银一度将历史新高刷新至120 美元／盎司上方，但随后双双迎来大反转。 现货黄金盘中一度跌破每盎司4700美元，收盘下跌9.6%，回到4860美元附近。现货白银价格盘中更是一度大跌超过30%，收盘则回到每盎司85美元附近。尽 管如此，COMEX黄金期货主力合约1月仍录得13%的涨幅，COMEX白银月度涨幅则超过20%。 国际油价连续四个交易日上涨，创下2022年以来的最大单月涨幅，布伦特原油本周一度重回70美元／桶。WTI原油全周累计上涨7.65%，1月累计涨幅达 14.49%；ICE布油累计涨幅为7.32%，1月累计涨幅为14.76%。 | ...

[Table_Title] 政策保驾护航，中长线资金入市仍是大趋势 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ·行业配置上，建议关注：1）高景气科技主线：如 AI 算力链、机器人、存储、储能等；2）逢低布局涨价相关周 期品种，如化工、有色等；3）受益于 AI 应用产业趋势方向，如港股互联网。 风险提示：全球经济超预期波动、政策效果不及预期、海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周 A 股主要指数分化，红利指数和上证 50 涨幅居前，北证 50、中证 2000 和科创 50 指领跌。资金 面上，市场日均成交额维持在 3 万亿元附近，显示投资者风险偏好高位运行。一级行业中，石 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The current market environment is characterized by ample liquidity, with structural highlights in the fundamentals indicated by high-frequency economic tracking and company performance forecasts[3] - The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on sectors benefiting from both domestic and external demand, particularly in technology manufacturing and cyclical industries[3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ) has a total market value of RMB 66.2 billion, with a TTM PE of 208.6 and PB of 5.3, driven by the upward cycle in storage and L3 autonomous driving catalyzing automotive electronics[3] - Jingfang Technology (603005.SH) has a market cap of RMB 20.1 billion, TTM PE of 58.9, and PB of 4.4, benefiting from the expansion of automotive CIS demand, with a projected net profit growth of 44.41%-52.32% in 2025[3] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH) has a market value of RMB 607.3 billion, TTM PE of 256.6, and PB of 27.7, positioned to benefit from the AI wave and domestic substitution trends[3] - Hehe Information (688615.SH) has a market cap of RMB 40.6 billion, TTM PE of 91.1, and PB of 14.5, with accelerated profit growth driven by AI and overseas market expansion[3] - Jinfeng Technology (002202.SZ) has a market value of RMB 103.4 billion, TTM PE of 42.8, and PB of 3.0, with improving profitability in wind turbine manufacturing and green methanol projects[3] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) has a market cap of RMB 55.74 billion, TTM PE of 29.6, and PB of 7.4, with copper prices expected to rise, benefiting from volume and price increases[3] - Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) has a market value of RMB 17.2 billion, TTM PE of 33.7, and PB of 4.0, with high growth potential amid rising oil prices[3] - Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ) has a market cap of RMB 48.6 billion, TTM PE of 15.7, and PB of 1.8, with expected recovery in gypsum board profitability[3] - China Duty Free (601888.SH) has a market value of RMB 190.3 billion, TTM PE of 56.2, and PB of 3.4, with anticipated recovery in operations due to strategic partnerships[3] - China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH) has a market cap of RMB 414.6 billion, TTM PE of 8.5, and PB of 1.6, with stable growth in liabilities and high dividend yield[3]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is proposing to expand the types of strategic investors and clarify minimum shareholding requirements, allowing various institutional investors such as social security funds and public funds to act as strategic investors with a minimum shareholding of 5% [2][3] - The CSRC emphasizes that capital investors must hold a significant proportion of shares for a long term and participate in corporate governance, while also requiring them to have a deep understanding of the company's industrial development [3][4] Group 2 - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing held discussions with representatives from domestic and foreign listed companies to gather opinions on enhancing the capital market's adaptability and improving the quality and investment value of listed companies [3][4] - The CSRC aims to consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development, while also enhancing the efficiency of refinancing and supporting the globalization of listed companies [4] Group 3 - Fenglong Co. and Jiamei Packaging announced the end of their stock suspension, with Fenglong's stock set to resume trading on February 2, 2026, after confirming no significant changes in its main business [5][6] - Jiamei Packaging's stock also resumes trading on February 2, 2026, despite a significant price increase that deviated from its fundamentals, with an expected net profit decline of 53.38% to 43.02% year-on-year [6] Group 4 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, including establishing a new capacity pricing mechanism for independent energy storage [7][8] - The notice aims to enhance fair competition among different technology types in the power industry and is expected to have minimal impact on electricity costs for residential and agricultural users [8] Group 5 - The transformer industry in China is experiencing a surge in demand due to the global AI computing power boom, with many factories operating at full capacity and orders extending to 2027 [9] - China's transformer export value is projected to reach 64.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a nearly 36% increase from 2024 [9] Group 6 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the VAT tax rate applicable to telecommunications services, which will affect the revenue and profits of major telecom operators [10] - The adjustment will change the applicable tax category for services provided by major telecom operators from value-added telecommunications services to basic telecommunications services, increasing the VAT rate from 6% to 9% [10] Group 7 - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a significant increase in demand, with South Korea's semiconductor exports reaching $20.5 billion in January, a year-on-year increase of over 102% [11] - Domestic chip manufacturers are raising prices across various segments, with increases of up to 80% expected to continue into the first half of 2026 [11]

Group 1 - The "Walsh trade" is impacting risk preferences, with a notable focus on the potential reversal of the "weak dollar" trade, which could significantly affect global asset allocation and market styles [11][12] - The North Exchange 50 index experienced a decline of 3.59%, while daily trading volume saw a slight increase [11][17] - Key sectors that performed well this week include space photovoltaic, seed industry, non-ferrous metals, and optical communication, with notable stock performances from companies like Liancheng CNC and Gongbika [11][12] Group 2 - New stock issuances have accelerated, with five new stocks launched in January 2026, and over 120 companies releasing performance forecasts [13][27] - As of January 30, 2026, 123 companies on the North Exchange have issued performance forecasts, with a median net profit forecast exceeding 80 million yuan [13] - The report suggests that the North Exchange needs to expand its number of companies and improve the quality of new stock issuances in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 83.89 times, with a median of 41.26 times, indicating a decline in valuation metrics [23][24] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached 5.961 billion shares, with a trading value of 143.655 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 9.27% and 8.82% respectively [26][29] - The report highlights the performance of individual stocks, with 43 stocks rising and 249 falling, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 0.17 [36]

本周（1月26日至30日），A股融资余额维持在2.7万亿元高位以上，最新为27222.32亿元（截至1月29日），为历史次高。本周A股融资净买入合计52.79亿 元。 分行业来看，有色金属遥遥领先，融资净买入额高达118.8亿元；基础化工、建筑装饰、医药生物、通信融资净买入额超过10亿元。电子遭到融资大额净 偿还，金额为78.5亿元；机械设备、国防军工紧随其后，融资净偿还额均在30亿元以上。 A股融资余额维持2.7万亿元高位。 这些个股融资客大幅买入 个股方面，本周31股融资净买入额在3亿元以上，紫金矿业、天孚通信、中国平安排名前三，融资净买入额依次为28.73亿元、25.59亿元、12.54亿元。 紫金矿业1月26日公告，公司控股的紫金黄金国际联合黄金签署《安排协议》，紫金黄金国际拟收购联合黄金全部已发行的普通股，其核心资产包括在产 的马里Sadiola金矿、科特迪瓦金矿综合体，及将于2026年下半年建成投产的埃塞俄比亚Kurmuk金矿。根据公开披露信息，截至2024年底，联合黄金拥有 金资源量533吨，平均品位1.48克/吨。 西部证券指出，从短期来看，标的均为在产或即将投产项目，并购当年即可贡献产量，叠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing adjustments, with major indices showing declines, but there are expectations for stabilization and potential upward trends in the near future [20][22][30]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The current round of ETF redemption is believed to be coming to an end, providing a repair window for heavyweight stocks, with a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks occurring [21]. - A short-term adjustment in the A-share market is anticipated, but the overall adjustment space is limited, with expectations for stabilization before the Spring Festival and a new upward trend afterward [22]. - The spring market is expected to continue, with a potential for a new upward phase following a period of consolidation [23][30]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Strategies - Focus on sectors with competitive advantages in global pricing power, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and new energy, while being cautious of speculative precious metals [21]. - The food and beverage and real estate sectors are viewed as short-term opportunities rather than long-term investment options [24]. - Investment strategies should consider a balanced approach between growth and value sectors, with particular attention to technology and cyclical stocks [31][32]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Impact - February is traditionally a strong month for the A-share market, with a 76% probability of index increases based on historical data [28]. - The market is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support aimed at boosting consumption and economic growth, particularly as local government meetings approach [34]. - The macroeconomic environment is likely to remain loose, supporting continued inflows into the stock market [34][35].

Group 1 - The current wave of ETF redemptions is coming to an end, providing a recovery window for large-cap stocks [2][10] - The shift in investment style is occurring on a macro level, transitioning from small-cap to large-cap and from thematic to quality stocks [3][11] - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair reflects a policy intention towards "real economy" in the U.S., which could significantly impact global risk assets [3][11] Group 2 - Price increases are expected to be a theme throughout the first quarter, driven by various sectors including upstream resources, midstream manufacturing, and downstream real estate [4][13] - The underlying commonality in cyclical sectors is the significant potential for profit margin recovery, as China's policy shifts from expansion to quality improvement [6][12] - The investment strategy should focus on industries where China has competitive advantages and is undergoing a reassessment of global pricing power, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [7][14] Group 3 - The recovery in consumer and real estate sectors is anticipated to occur in the spring, aligning with the broader market recovery [8][15] - Current market capitalization of real estate companies is only 1.0% of the total A-share market, indicating a potential for recovery in this sector [8][15] - Recommendations for the consumer sector include focusing on duty-free, aviation, hotels, and tea beverage industries, while for the real estate sector, attention should be on quality developers and building materials [8][16]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for Price-Volume Data Modeling - **Model Construction Idea**: The model leverages convolutional neural networks to analyze standardized graphical representations of price-volume data, aiming to predict future price trends and map learned features to industry thematic indices[79][81] - **Model Construction Process**: - Standardize price-volume data into graphical formats for each stock within a specific time window[79] - Apply convolutional neural networks to extract features from these graphical representations[79] - Map the extracted features to thematic industry indices, such as the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index, and others[81] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industry themes based on price-volume data and provides actionable insights for sector allocation[79][81] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CNN Model - **Thematic Indices Configured**: - CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (h11057.CSI)[81] - CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813.CSI)[81] - CNI Oil & Gas Index (399439.SZ)[81] - CSI Oil & Gas Resources Index (931248.CSI)[81] - CNI Nonferrous Metals Index (399395.SZ)[81]