策略研究 周度报告 如何看待军工行情的持续性？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-05-11 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略周报《如何看待银行股大跌及 配置价值？—第 18 周》2025-05-05 2.策略月报《持盈保泰—2025 年 5 月 A 股市场研判及配置机会》2025-04-27 3.策略周报《消费行业轮动，行至何阶 段？—第 16 周》2025-04-20 4.策略周报《科技是否迎来主线契机， 哪些消费行业尚未轮动？—第 15 周》 2025-04-13 主要观 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant recovery in Q1 2025, driven by both military and civilian sectors, with Q1 revenue reaching 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% [1][10] - The 2024 annual report showed a revenue of 1.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 41% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in defense product deliveries, while civilian products generated 760 million yuan in revenue, a growth of 29% [1][6] - The company experienced a net loss of 210 million yuan in 2024, transitioning from profit to loss due to increased R&D investments and losses from joint ventures [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 9.8%, down 6.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was -15.9%, down 19 percentage points [2] - For Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 19.2%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 0.4%, up 4.5 percentage points [2] - The company expects revenues of 2.3 billion yuan, 3.0 billion yuan, and 3.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a CAGR of 28% [5] Defense Sector Insights - The defense sector is rapidly advancing in information technology, with increasing demand for precision-guided munitions [3] - The company is a leader in the segment of large weapon systems, with strong technical capabilities in laser-guided munitions and ongoing development in infrared, television, and radar guidance technologies [3] Optical Materials and Components - The company's subsidiary, Xinhua Guang, covers the entire industry chain from materials to infrared lenses, holding approximately 15% of the global market share and 30% of the Chinese market share in high-quality optical glass materials [4] - The optical glass industry, particularly in high-end sectors, is shifting towards China, creating significant demand opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company plans to achieve a revenue growth of 90% year-on-year in 2025, aiming to turn losses into profits [2][4] - The special equipment sector is expected to become a new growth point, benefiting from the increase in demand for smart ammunition [3][4] - The company is a leader in the ultra-hard materials market and is expected to maintain its market position while benefiting from the growth in demand for photovoltaic diamond wire [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of -327 million yuan, a decline of 140% [1][4] - The revenue from the special equipment segment was 2.39 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.61%, a decrease of 23.92 percentage points [1] - The ultra-hard materials segment generated 1.76 billion yuan in revenue, down 23% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.88%, a decrease of 9.77 percentage points [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts a revenue of 8.72 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 91% increase from 2024 [4] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 325 million yuan, 422 million yuan, and 527 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 30% and 25% in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 71, 55, and 44 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Market Position - The company is the only publicly listed platform for ammunition under the Weaponry Group and is involved in the production of various munitions [3] - The company’s subsidiary, North Red Sun, has achieved profitability, indicating improvements in core product pricing and internal operations [3] - The demand for long-range rocket artillery is expected to grow due to its significance in modern warfare, particularly highlighted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company plans to achieve a revenue growth of 90% year-on-year in 2025, aiming to turn losses into profits [2][4] - The special equipment sector is expected to become a new growth point, benefiting from the increase in demand for smart ammunition [3][4] - The company is a leader in the ultra-hard materials market and is expected to maintain its market position while benefiting from the growth in demand for photovoltaic diamond wire [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of -327 million yuan, a decline of 140% [1][4] - The revenue from the special equipment segment in 2024 was 2.39 billion yuan, down 29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.61%, a decrease of 23.92 percentage points [1] - The ultra-hard materials segment generated a revenue of 1.764 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.88%, a decline of 9.77 percentage points [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts a revenue of 8.721 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 91% increase from 2024 [4] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 325 million yuan, 422 million yuan, and 527 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 30% and 25% in the following years [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated to be 71, 55, and 44 respectively [4] Market Position - The company is the only publicly listed platform for ammunition under the Weaponry Group and is involved in the production of various munitions including large-caliber shells and rockets [3] - The company’s subsidiary, North Red Sun, has achieved profitability, indicating improvements in core product pricing and internal operations [3]

1 、 《 时隔逾4年再次配股集资，小米股价短线受压 》摘要 2、 《 揭秘"全口径消费统计制度"》摘要 以北京市为例 早在 年其就发布 《北京市市场总消费统计办法》 这使得消费统计更加全 ■ 建议关注的制导装备产业链公司：高德红外、北方导航、理工导航、智明达、中天火箭、晶品特 装、广东宏大、长城军工等；雷达产业链公司：航天南湖、国睿科技等。 ■ 建议关注的地面兵装产业链公司：内蒙一机、晶品特装等；其他具有出口业务的公司包括：威海广 泰、航宇科技、睿创微纳等。 ■ 在AI大发展的背景下，新能源产业链有望与AIDC（人工智能数据中心）、人形机器人以及低空经济 深度融合，从而推动社会智能化升级并开辟新的成长空间。 ■ AI巨头加速资本开支，推动新能源产业链设备（如HVDC、BBU等）与数据中心技术的结合，这将 助力数据中心向智能计算（智算）数据中心转型。 ■ 随着新能源与人形机器人领域的结合，未来新能源汽车产业链中的公司可能会积极拓展人形机器人 业务。 ■ 与电动车发展阶段不同的是，国内人形机器人产业有望引领全球发展，从0到1的过渡期有望实现更 加顺利的进展。 ■ 新能源的三电系统（电池、电机、电控）是低空经济发 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the defense equipment sector, with high product barriers and a strong position in the precision-guided weapon market, which is expected to see increasing demand due to rising penetration rates and military exercises [1][36]. - The optical materials and components segment is experiencing a shift towards China, with the company holding a significant market share in high-quality optical glass materials [2][3]. - The company plans to raise up to 1.02 billion RMB through a private placement to enhance its production capabilities, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a long development history, restructured in 2010 to form a new layout focusing on defense and optical materials [22][23]. - It is backed by the state-owned China North Industries Group, providing a stable ownership structure [23][25]. - The business is divided into two main segments: defense equipment and optical materials and components [26][32]. Defense Sector - The defense sector is seeing rapid advancements in information technology, with increasing demand for precision-guided weapons and optical information equipment [36][40]. - The global market for anti-tank missile systems is projected to grow from 20.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 25.2 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.6% [1]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the large weapon systems field, with significant barriers to entry [44]. Optical Materials and Components - The optical materials segment is experiencing a broad range of applications, with a global market share of approximately 15% and a 30% share in China [2][3]. - The market for military helmet display systems is expected to grow from 430 million USD in 2023 to 680 million USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.8% [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 16.6 billion RMB in 2024 to 30.1 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 11% [3][4]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability by 2026, with net profits expected to reach 1.1 billion RMB [3][4]. Investment and Growth Potential - The company is set to benefit from the increasing demand for precision-guided products and the expansion of its optical materials production capacity [2][10]. - The expected revenue from the new projects post-expansion is estimated at 6.6 billion RMB for high-performance optical materials and 5.9 billion RMB for precision-guided products [2][4].

创业板投资风险提示 本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、新旧产业融合存 在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资 者面临较大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板市场的投资风险及本公司所披露 的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 北方长龙新材料技术股份有限公司 （North Long Dragon New Materials Tech Co., Ltd.） （陕西省西安市国家民用航天产业基地航天东路 699 号军民融合创新园(B 区)11 栋 2 层） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 招股说明书 保 荐 人： 广东省广州市黄埔区中新广州知识城腾飞一街 2 号 618 室 主承销商： 北方长龙新材料技术股份有限公司 招股说明书 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断 ...

北方长龙新材料技术股份有限公司 （North Long Dragon New Materials Tech Co., Ltd.） （陕西省西安市国家民用航天产业基地航天东路 699 号军民融合创新园(B 区)11 栋 2 层） 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 创业板投资风险提示 本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、新旧产业融合存 在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资 者面临较大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板市场的投资风险及本公司所披露 的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 招股意向书 保 荐 人： 主承销商： 广东省广州市黄埔区中新广州知识城腾飞一街 2 号 618 室 北方长龙新材料技术股份有限公司 招股意向书 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也不表明其 对发行人的盈利能力、投资价值或者对投资者的收益作出实质性判断或保证。任 何与之相反的声明均属虚假不实陈述。 根据《证券法》规定，股票依法发行后，发行人经营与收益的变化，由发行 人自行负责；投资者自主判断 ...

北方长龙新材料技术股份有限公司 （North Long Dragon New Materials Tech Co., Ltd.） （陕西省西安市国家民用航天产业基地航天东路 699 号军民融合创新园(B 区)11 栋 2 层） 创业板投资风险提示 本次发行股票拟在创业板上市，创业板公司具有创新投入大、新旧产业融合存 在不确定性、尚处于成长期、经营风险高、业绩不稳定、退市风险高等特点，投资 者面临较大的市场风险。投资者应充分了解创业板市场的投资风险及本公司所披露 的风险因素，审慎作出投资决定。 首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市 招股说明书 （注册稿） 本公司的发行申请尚需经深圳证券交易所和中国证监会履行相应程序。本招股 说明书（注册稿）不具有据以发行股票的法律效力，仅供预先披露之用，投资者应 当以正式公告的招股说明书作为投资决定的依据。 保 荐 人： 主承销商： 广东省广州市黄埔区中新广州知识城腾飞一街 2 号 618 室 北方长龙新材料技术股份有限公司 招股说明书（注册稿） 声 明 中国证监会、交易所对本次发行所作的任何决定或意见，均不表明其对发行 人注册申请文件及所披露信息的真实性、准确性、完整性作出保证，也 ...