过去几年，投资正在变成一门越来越难以稳定赚钱的生意。 但与此同时，在一些此前少人探索的"业务方向"上，一些具备强大知名度的投资人（俗称"投资大V"）正在大快朵颐新的业 务天地。 网红经济学家洪灝10月末开始在付费平台知识星球上"招募会员"，最新的会员数已经突破1.4万名，以其899元每位的"年 费"，两个月"名义收入"超1250万元。 而紧接着是，同样拥有较大粉丝数的李蓓，也开始和网上大平台合作推出"课程"，4天12888元的叫价，预计收入也会达到 百万元量级。 当资产管理和投资研究等传统渠道变得越来越难"变现"时，部分业内专业人士似乎在绕开原有的业绩与机构评价体系，直 接为自己的专业能力重新定价······ 之后，半夏投资官微显示：从发布课程信息到学员募集完成，仅间隔两天时间，200个名额即全部报满。 以最保守口径计算，假设全部学员仅购买单节课程，对应的收入下限也达到200人乘以3888元，合计约77.76万元。 若考虑系统课程整体定价，实际金额显然更高。 02 "轻松实现"年化收益10%？ 从课程海报与已披露的信息来看，这套线下课程的核心，并不在具体标的推荐，而是围绕投资者的认知框架展开。 包括：如何识别 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese private equity industry is at a pivotal crossroads in 2025, driven by technological advancements and regulatory reforms, particularly in quantitative investment powered by AI [2][4]. - Quantitative private equity has outperformed subjective investment in terms of both the number of funds and performance, marking a significant shift in the industry landscape [2][10]. Group 1: AI and Quantitative Investment - DeepSeek, founded by Liang Wenfeng, launched the AI model DeepSeek-R1, which quickly gained attention for its performance in mathematical and logical reasoning tasks, even surpassing ChatGPT in the U.S. market [4]. - The average return for DeepSeek's affiliated quantitative funds reached ***% from January to November 2025, with a three-year average return of ***% [4]. - Other notable quantitative firms, such as Heiyi Asset and Jinkun Investment, have also integrated AI into their investment strategies, enhancing their performance and operational efficiency [6]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - In April 2025, new regulations on algorithmic trading were introduced, imposing stricter controls on high-frequency trading and defining abnormal trading behaviors [8]. - These regulations are expected to lead to a shift towards medium and low-frequency strategies, increased focus on machine learning applications, and enhanced risk management practices within the quantitative investment sector [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The number of billion-yuan private equity firms has surpassed 100, with quantitative firms leading this growth, indicating a return to the "double hundred" era in the industry [10]. - By November 2025, the total assets under management for private equity funds reached 22.09 trillion yuan, with private securities investment funds contributing significantly to this growth [15]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - As of November 2025, quantitative long-only products reported an average return of 40.34%, outperforming subjective long-only products, which averaged 34.25% [30]. - Among the billion-yuan private equity firms, those focused on quantitative strategies achieved an average return of 34.40%, significantly higher than the 28.49% average for subjective strategies [30]. Group 5: Talent Movement - The trend of public fund managers transitioning to private equity has intensified, with 304 managers leaving public funds in 2025, many moving to private equity firms [38]. - By December 2025, 859 former public fund managers were working in private equity, with a notable average return of 27.70% for those managing at least three qualifying products [39].

【导读】景林、星石、重阳等知名私募展望2026年市场投资机会 临近年末，多家明星私募机构陆续发表新一年的投资展望和策略。 景林资产总经理高云程致信投资者，总结去年投资的同时对2026年进行了展望。高云程认为，AI对各 行各业的渗透和改造才刚刚开始，2026年很可能是AI Agent真正普及的元年。 星石投资认为，2026年泛科技产业需求将保持旺盛，但传统行业价格趋势也有望迎来改善。 重阳投资对A股市场依然持积极态度，但提出投资者需要降低收益预期，在策略上立足于保住2025年牛 市的胜利果实，再寻找进一步扩大收益的机会。 高云程也指出，在AI突进式发展的同时，也出现越来越多质疑的声音。"确实有一些公司的市值建立在 对未来特别乐观的预期之上，但我们的核心持仓公司估值都在历史合理区间内，而且生意模式具备定价 权，竞争格局处于有利地位，管理层也足够清醒理性。" 他表示，景林资产核心持仓中的公司都有一个共同特点：这几家公司都对他们的客户有强黏性和定价 权、产品差异化明显、他们都能够按照自己的节奏控制合意利润率水平。 "绝大部分公司都是在市场竞争中舍命狂奔的状态，没有控制节奏的从容。只有商业模式极好和竞争格 局特别的企业 ...

Group 1: Metal Futures and Market Impact - Recent rapid increases in precious and industrial metal futures prices have led to heightened volatility risks, prompting the CME Group to raise margin requirements for trading metals including gold, silver, palladium, and lithium [1] - The new margin requirements, effective after the close of trading on the upcoming Monday, include a 10% increase for gold futures, approximately 13.6% for silver, and 23% for platinum [1] - Following the announcement, international metal futures prices experienced multiple rounds of declines, with gold prices falling below the $4500 per ounce mark, closing at $4497.9 per ounce, a decrease of 1.20% [1] Group 2: AI and Investment Insights - Jinglin Asset Management, a major private equity firm, has indicated that 2026 may mark the true beginning of the widespread adoption of AI Agents [1] Group 3: Fund and Market Adjustments - Guotou Silver LOF announced a temporary suspension of trading on December 30, 2025, to protect investor interests, with the possibility of extending the suspension if market price premiums do not decrease [2] Group 4: Airline Fuel Charges - Starting January 5, 2026, domestic airlines in China will reduce the fuel surcharge for passenger transport, with fees decreasing by 10 yuan for flights under 800 kilometers and 20 yuan for longer flights [3] Group 5: Energy and Technology Developments - The first 30MW pure hydrogen gas turbine has successfully achieved stable operation, marking a significant advancement in hydrogen power generation technology [3] - The Chinese government has confirmed the continuation of the "national subsidy" for consumer goods, which has significantly boosted the sales of mid-to-high-end products in recent years [4] Group 6: Corporate Changes and Developments - Financial adjustments include the appointment of Bi Chunhui as the deputy director of the research institute at Zheshang Securities [5] - Zero Run Technology's CEO confirmed that the company will maintain control by the founding team despite the investment from FAW [6] - China Software plans to sell 555 X86 servers and two properties to optimize idle assets [7] Group 7: Market Transactions and Contracts - Financial services firm Caitong Securities has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to publicly issue bonds totaling up to 150 billion yuan [8] - Southeast Network Frame has won an EPC project worth 8.87 billion yuan [11] - Shanxi Expressway intends to acquire a 15% stake in Shanxi Transportation Development Group for 74.8 million yuan [12] - Rima Precision's subsidiary has been designated as a supplier for a new energy vehicle project, with expected sales of approximately 1.342 billion yuan over its lifecycle [13] - Nankuang Group signed a 3 billion yuan equipment procurement contract for iron ore processing [14] - Guangdong Yuedian A's Dapu Power Plant's second phase has successfully commenced commercial operations [15] - China Energy Construction's subsidiary has won an EPC project worth approximately 6.864 billion yuan [16] Group 8: Stock Market Updates - ST Dongtong's stock will resume trading on December 30, 2025, entering a delisting preparation period [17] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a slight increase, marking a nine-day rise, while the Shenzhen Component Index experienced a decline [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Li Bei, founder of Banxia Investment, has launched a series of investment courses priced at 12,888 yuan, promising a long-term annualized return of over 10% [3][4]. Group 1: Course Launch and Reception - The investment course consists of four sessions and is marketed as a way to teach ordinary people how to invest effectively [4]. - The announcement of the course led to skepticism within the financial community, with many criticizing it as a move to profit from selling courses rather than genuine investment advice [3][6]. - Despite the criticism, the course quickly sold out, generating approximately 2.58 million yuan in revenue within two days [3][6]. Group 2: Li Bei's Justification and Charitable Intent - Li Bei stated that the course was not part of a planned business strategy and that all proceeds would go to a charity fund to support university students [3][6]. - She emphasized her experience in identifying market scams and her intention to educate others on how to avoid them [4][6]. Group 3: Performance of Banxia Investment - Banxia Investment has faced challenges, with its funds underperforming compared to the benchmark index, the CSI 300, over the past three years [7][9]. - The performance of Banxia's macro hedge fund has been notably poor, with returns of 3.49% and -1.47% over three years, significantly lagging behind the CSI 300's returns of 21.66% and 19.33% respectively [7][9]. - The firm, once a hundred billion yuan private equity, has seen its assets drop below that threshold, currently ranging between 5 billion and 10 billion yuan [9]. Group 4: Industry Context and Competitors - Other financial professionals have also entered the knowledge payment sector, with notable figures like Hong Hao and Liu Yuhui achieving significant subscription revenues [3][9]. - The trend of financial experts offering paid courses reflects a growing market for knowledge sharing, despite concerns about the quality and effectiveness of such offerings [6][9].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 12月29日，中国证券报·中证金牛座记者从渠道机构方面获悉，近日，国内千亿私募景林资产向投资者 发布了2025年年终观点。景林资产总经理高云程在展望2026年时表示，人工智能体（AI Agent）或在明 年迎来真正普及的起点。 高云程认为，在人工智能、新能源、智能驾驶等前沿科技领域，全球正经历一轮快速发展浪潮，相关企 业的营收与市值不断刷新纪录。AI对各行各业的渗透与改造"才刚刚开始"，未来的行业巨头可能蕴藏于 当前刚刚起步的AI原生公司之中。其中，"中国产业发展背后的几代工程师人才的迭代，充分诠释了我 们从学习西方先进制造业到参与复杂的全球产业链分工，进而在部分产业实现研发和制造上的超越的历 史性进程"。目前，中国也有了强大的人才储备，以及已经发展起来的、有全球竞争力的产业链龙头公 司。 "2026年很可能是AI Agent真正普及的元年。"高云程判断。他预计，软件层面的AI Agent以及软硬件结 合的AI Agent设备将陆续面世。以手机等硬件为底层操作平台、搭载大型AI模型的新型生态，有可能对 现有的主流操作系统构成挑战。 计假 ...

本报记者 昌校宇 2025年的A股市场即将在结构性行情中收官，AI、大宗商品和出口成为贯穿全年的主线。面对当前估值抬升与盈利分化的 市场环境，相聚资本管理有限公司（以下简称"相聚资本"）总经理梁辉在接受《证券日报》记者专访时表示，2026年市场投资 机会仍将围绕产业趋势与技术进步展开。未来，单纯依赖单一资产或风格的策略将难以持续，作为一家以绝对回报为目标的私 募机构，相聚资本正通过多资产多策略体系，在复杂市场中探索更可持续的收益路径。 AI、大宗商品与出口 仍是2026年主线 回顾2025年，梁辉认为市场呈现出明显的结构性特征。AI、大宗商品和出口成为全年表现突出的三大方向。他分析 道："AI融入产业链带来高利润率，大宗商品中的铜、黄金表现强势，出口则展现出超预期的韧性。但是由产业趋势和全球经 济环境共同驱动的结构性行情。" 梁辉认为，2025年的上涨主要来自企业估值提升，盈利改善贡献相对滞后。"2026年估值提升空间预计收窄，盈利增长若 与2025年保持一致，整体收益可能较2025年温和。" 尽管预期收敛，梁辉仍看好2026年的结构性机会，并表示将继续围绕AI、大宗商品和出口这三条主线展开，同时会更注重 节 ...

2025年，中国资产迎来一波久违的行情，上证指数多次站上4000点。这一轮市场行情，由硬科技和新经 济作为先锋，走出一轮科技突破和产业驱动、资金流入和风险偏好提升同频共振推动下的"科技重估"行 情。 近两个月以来，资产轮动告一段落，A股上涨动能有所减弱，恒生科技明显回调。一方面，科技成长的 单边行情歇脚，"AI泡沫论"的浮现也透露出投资者对双创行情的迟疑；但另一方面，在更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策总基调下，业内人士认为，不应悲观。 一个关键而又急迫的话题摆在眼前：展望2026年，是否会上演从估值抬升的"急而促"行情转向盈利支撑 的"缓而慢"的行情？ 近日，老牌知名私募相聚资本在2026年年度投资策略展望中表示，市场整体下行风险较小，对取得一定 的绝对回报充满信心。但或不同于2025年宽基指数接近20%的涨幅，需适当降低投资回报预期。未来一 年，大概率依旧是以结构性行情为主，选股逻辑与当前保持一致，关注人工智能、大宗商品以及出海等 方向的投资机会。 外部环境宽松支持股市继续走强 在2024年底的投资展望中，梁辉表示，人工智能和半导体的投资机会值得高度关注，这样的判断也在后 来的市场走势中不断得到验证 ...

2025年，中国资产迎来一波久违的行情，上证指数多次站上4000点。这一轮市场行情，由硬科技和新经 济作为先锋，走出一轮科技突破和产业驱动、资金流入和风险偏好提升同频共振推动下的"科技重估"行 情。 近两个月以来，资产轮动告一段落，A股上涨动能有所减弱，恒生科技明显回调。一方面，科技成长的 单边行情歇脚，"AI泡沫论"的浮现也透露出投资者对双创行情的迟疑；但另一方面，在更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策总基调下，业内人士认为，不应悲观。 一个关键而又急迫的话题摆在眼前：展望2026年，是否会上演从估值抬升的"急而促"行情转向盈利支撑 的"缓而慢"的行情？ 近日，老牌知名私募相聚资本在2026年年度投资策略展望中表示，市场整体下行风险较小，对取得一定 的绝对回报充满信心。但或不同于2025年宽基指数接近20%的涨幅，需适当降低投资回报预期。未来一 年，大概率依旧是以结构性行情为主，选股逻辑与当前保持一致，关注人工智能、大宗商品以及出海等 方向的投资机会。 外部环境宽松支持股市继续走强 2025年，A股市场走出强势回归行情，截至目前，上证指数、沪深300指数今年以来的涨幅接近20%， 创业板指更是实现50% ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to maintain a "bullish stock + non-bearish bond" pattern, with overall low volatility and certain investment value, despite lacking trend opportunities [2][6][7]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - Long-term interest rates are anticipated to experience wide fluctuations, with potential upward risks due to supply pressures and inflation expectations [8][12]. - The central economic work conference in December indicated that monetary policy will remain moderately loose, benefiting short-term assets [12]. - The bond market is expected to show structural opportunities, particularly in medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, convertible bonds, and Chinese dim sum bonds [11][12][13]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment opportunities for 2026 include: 1. Medium to short-term high-grade credit bonds, which serve as a stabilizing component in portfolios [12]. 2. Structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, which exhibit strong fundamental support [13]. 3. Chinese dim sum bonds, benefiting from potential capital gains and currency appreciation [12][15]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 experienced a bearish trend, correcting from previous overpricing due to premature interest rate cut expectations [4][5]. - Factors such as the central bank's restrained liquidity release and unexpected policy changes contributed to the market's volatility [5][6]. - The overall performance of the bond market in 2025 aligned with initial expectations, although the degree of volatility and credit bond differentiation was greater than anticipated [4][5]. Group 4: Strategies for Enhancing Returns - In a low-interest environment, strategies to enhance fixed-income returns include active participation in wave trading and refining trading strategies [16][17]. - Utilizing various derivative tools to amplify capital gains while managing overall portfolio risk is recommended [17][19]. - Emphasis on multi-asset allocation and strategy optimization is crucial, particularly in convertible bonds and REITs [16][19].