"Is gold's 60% rally this year merely the appetizer for a late-1970s-style main course?†asks Edwards ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have doubled in the last two years, marking the largest increase since the 1979 oil crisis, with forecasts predicting prices could reach $5,000 per troy ounce by 2026 due to various factors including U.S. policy and geopolitical tensions [1][2][6] Group 1: Price Trends and Forecasts - Spot gold prices hit a record $4,381 in October, driven by demand from central banks and new investors, with expectations of further gains influencing buying behavior [2][6] - Analysts from Bank of America and JP Morgan predict gold prices will average above $4,600 in Q2 2026 and exceed $5,000 by Q4 2026 [6] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Central banks are diversifying reserves away from dollar-denominated assets, providing a solid foundation for gold prices in 2026, as they tend to buy when investor positioning is stretched [4][5] - Investor holdings of gold as a share of total assets under management have increased from 1.5% pre-2022 to 2.8%, indicating a growing interest in gold as a stable investment [6] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Concerns regarding U.S. Federal Reserve independence, tariff disputes, and geopolitical issues such as the war in Ukraine are contributing to the demand for gold [3][4] - The weak dollar policy and U.S. fiscal deficits are also driving investor interest in gold as a means of portfolio diversification [2][3]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 15,353, with an opening price of 14,690 and a current price of 15,535, reflecting a 5.21% increase [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - The average hourly wage in the U.S. for November recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, both below expectations [1] Group 2 - The global silver market has experienced a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year, with limited mining output and increasing demand from renewable energy and electronics sectors [1] - Expectations of loose global monetary policy and declining real yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, attracting institutional investors seeking diversification and inflation hedging [1] - The silver market is currently characterized by high volatility, with the price expected to continue fluctuating within a range of 14,200 to 15,000 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the CFTC data, highlighting the implications of potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve and the impact on investment strategies for precious metals [2][27]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions is only updated until November 18 [2]. - The market perceives a 24.4% chance of a rate cut in January, 44% in March, and 63% in April, prompting investors to consider their strategies during the interim period [2][27]. - The next potential Federal Reserve chairpersons, Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh, both support further rate cuts, but Warsh advocates for a balance sheet reduction that could negatively impact cryptocurrencies and stock markets, potentially pressuring gold prices [2][27]. Group 2: Fund Positions in Precious Metals - As of November 18, managed net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 7.9%, while silver and platinum saw declines of 11.1% and 13.8%, respectively [3]. - Year-to-date, net long positions in U.S. futures for gold have dropped by 47%, while silver has increased by 24% [8][9]. - The overall sentiment indicates a significant reduction in long positions across various metals, with a notable increase in short positions for metals other than gold [7]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has decreased by 3.3% recently, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed compared to gold itself [20]. - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, was at 69.38, down 3.6% week-over-week, reflecting a 23.6% decline year-to-date [25]. - The article suggests that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [21]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential actions if inflation pressures resurface while interest rates are being cut [28]. - The complexity of the market dynamics necessitates close monitoring of the new chairperson's statements for clearer expectations regarding asset prices [27].

Economic Outlook - The modern economic family index, created to track the health of the US economy, shows signs of improvement despite previous underperformance [2] - Small caps and transportation sectors have reached all-time highs, indicating a potential disconnect between stock performance and the real economy [2] Sector Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Continued support for precious metals is expected due to factors like debt, a weakening USD, and geopolitical concerns, with a bullish outlook on silver and a price target of $4,700 for gold [4] - **Cryptocurrency**: The sector is seen as a "coiled spring" with potential upside if Bitcoin holds support at $80,000, driven by similar concerns about debt and dollar debasement [4] - **Financials**: Reduced regulation may spur M&A activity beneficial to investment banks, alongside potential lower rates and increased lending, though the industry faces generational changes towards more digital solutions [4] - **Technology**: The tech sector is currently flat, with some major stocks being over-extended. IBM is highlighted for its quantum computing initiatives, with a price target of $400 next year [4]

Investment Summary - The global central bank interest rate cut ratio has significantly increased from 13.33% in October 2022 to 85.33% in October 2025, indicating a shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy cycle since the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in September 2024 [1] - The net interest rate cut ratio has also improved from -73.33% to +86.08% during the same period, suggesting that the easing of financial conditions will positively impact economic growth and commodity prices, particularly in the metal industry [1] Central Bank Balance Sheet - The global central bank balance sheet has shown positive changes, with the contraction rate narrowing from -11.16% in April 2024 to -0.89% in October 2025, indicating a potential return to quantitative easing (QE) [2] - The Federal Reserve has initiated reserve management bond purchases, with the first round amounting to approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills [2] - Historical data shows that previous QE periods have led to significant increases in commodity price indices, with energy, mineral, and metal indices rising by 131.88%, 55.46%, and 55.29% respectively during the last QE period from 2020 to 2022 [2] Geopolitical Risks and Gold - The global geopolitical risk index has reached its third-highest level since the 1973 Middle East War, significantly above the historical average, which has led to an increase in the safe-haven premium for gold [3] - The global economic policy uncertainty index has also hit a record high, further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset during turbulent financial periods [3] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold pricing is expected to show a trend of being easier to rise and harder to fall, with supply-demand dynamics becoming more critical in determining price stability [4] - Global gold supply is in a low-growth phase, while demand remains robust, particularly due to central bank purchases, which have exceeded 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years [4] - The average annual global gold consumption has risen to approximately 4,616 tons, with significant net inflows into gold ETFs [4] Silver Market Outlook - The global silver supply is expected to grow at a low rate, with a projected increase from 31,529 tons in 2024 to 32,666 tons in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.2% [6] - Industrial demand for silver, driven by sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, is anticipated to be the main growth driver for silver demand, while traditional photography demand continues to decline [6] Platinum Market Analysis - The global platinum market is projected to maintain a structural supply shortage, with a forecasted supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 due to weak mining output and slow recovery in recycling [7] - The ongoing supply constraints and resilient demand are expected to support platinum prices, with the market potentially entering a structural shortage cycle from 2025 to 2027 [7]

Group 1 - The spot gold price experienced fluctuations, rising to around $4,350 before a rapid decline, ultimately closing at approximately $4,307 [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices, which had been on a rising trend for several days, saw a halt, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1,349 yuan per gram, down 4 yuan from the previous day, ending a five-day increase that started on December 10 [3] - Other brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Lao Miao Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang maintained their gold prices compared to the previous day [3] Group 2 - On the afternoon of the 16th, spot gold briefly surged before plummeting below $4,300 [4] - A report from Galaxy Futures indicated that gold and silver regained upward momentum, with gold facing significant resistance near historical highs, leading to profit-taking during price increases [5] - The report also noted that silver exhibited greater volatility but remained strong due to macroeconomic and fundamental factors [5] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the report suggested that market volatility may increase due to upcoming events such as the U.S. November non-farm payrolls, U.S. November CPI, and central bank meetings in Europe and Japan [6] - Despite a positive outlook for gold and silver, the report emphasized the need for careful position management and timely profit protection in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened lower with all three major indices declining, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.17%, closing at 3861.51 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.21% [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.23% [1] Group 2: Sector Movements - The first batch of L3-level autonomous driving vehicles received approval for entry, leading to initial activity in the autonomous driving sector [1] - The precious metals, film and television, and liquor sectors opened lower [1]

Group 1: Market Trends - The average ticket price for jewelry has increased by 15%, while gold prices have risen by 50% and silver and platinum by 60% to 70% over the past year [1][2] - The jewelry industry overall has seen a growth of over 10% this year, with jewelry outperforming other luxury categories like handbags [12][13] - Central banks are currently purchasing approximately 25% of the gold available in the market, indicating strong demand from financial investors and jewelers [5] Group 2: Impact of Lab-Grown Diamonds - The price of natural diamonds has decreased by roughly 45% from their peak in March 2022, largely due to the rise of lab-grown diamonds [7] - Adoption of lab-grown diamonds has surged, with about 60% of engagement rings sold in the U.S. featuring a lab-grown center, up from just 2% in 2018 [8] - The market for lab-grown gemstones is expanding, with expectations that 80% adoption could be reached in the next ten years [9] Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are increasingly viewing gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, which is expected to sustain its demand [3][4] - There is a notable difference in consumer preferences between diamonds and colored gemstones; while consumers prefer the perfection of lab-grown diamonds, they often favor the unique imperfections found in natural colored gemstones [10][11]

This silver ETF has climbed over 110% in 2025 but could go much higher.Silver keeps climbing.The price of the precious metal has surged in recent weeks, hitting an all-time high of $64.66 per ounce on Dec. 12, 2025. Silver has now logged nearly 113% gains in 2025, as of this writing.It's a prime opportunity for investors to capture the momentum, and one of the best ways to invest in silver right now is by owning physical silver without actually owning it. Why is the price of silver going up?Silver is shatte ...