Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, with the subsequent upward driving force depending on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. The continuous destocking of visible inventory supports the price. [2][3] - In the short term, the urea valuation range has shifted upward. The upper static valuation pressure for futures is around 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, while the lower support for the 01 contract is expected to be between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton. [1] - The trading volume was 86,067 lots, a decrease from 109,007 lots the previous day; the open interest of the 01 contract was 219,302 lots, a decrease of 426 lots. [1] - The number of warehouse receipts was 7,887 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; the trading volume was 289.568 million yuan, a decrease of 77.098 million yuan. [1] - The basis in Shandong region was -7 yuan, a decrease of 22 yuan; the basis of Fengxi - disk was -137 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan; the basis of Dongguang - disk was 3 yuan, a decrease of 12 yuan. [1] - The spread between UR01 - UR05 was -65, an increase of 4. [1] Spot Market - The factory prices of some urea manufacturers changed, with the price of Yankuang Xinjiang decreasing by 15 yuan to 1320 yuan/ton, Shandong Ruixing increasing by 20 yuan to 1700 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu Linggu increasing by 20 yuan to 1710 yuan/ton. [1] - The prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi regions both decreased by 10 yuan, to 1680 yuan/ton and 1540 yuan/ton respectively. [1] Supply - side Important Indicators - The operating rate was 84.10%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; the daily output was 203,380 tons, an increase of 2400 tons. [1] Industry News - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.10%. [2] - The inventory of enterprises in some provinces decreased, while that in some provinces increased. The overall inventory showed a stable decline due to reserve demand and downstream restocking. [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 基本面转好，盘面有抗跌性 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 2 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内偏强。现货价格稳中偏涨，虽成交走弱，但工厂 代发相对充足，挺价意愿强。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价 范围在 1620-1670 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端。气头装置限气减产拉开序幕， 昨日内蒙部分装置已开启检修，后续西南地区本月也将逐渐开始停产减产，目 前日产依然处于 19 万吨-20 吨之间。农需秋季肥扫尾后，储备型农需逢低拿货 为主。复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产，已有部 分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12 月份将继续高负荷生产，目前预收 订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，冬储提供需求支撑，尿素价格预 计窄幅波动，呈现一定的抗跌性。其他工业需求刚需托底为主，房地产低迷拖 累开工。终端交易顺畅，虽日产一直处于同比偏高位置，但库存维持去化，且 本期已降至同比偏低水平。综合来看，供应端有减量预期而需求端刚需及冬储 需求托底，行情抗跌性强，短期偏强整理。 【期现行情】 现货方面：现货价格稳中偏涨，虽成交走弱，但工厂代发相对充足，挺价 意愿强 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) has seen its stock price increase by over 25% in the last six trading days, with a current price of 9.4 HKD and a trading volume of 108 million HKD [1] Industry Summary - The domestic urea market in China is experiencing a fluctuating upward trend, with the main regional prices for small granular urea rising to a range of 1580-1680 RMB/ton [1] - Analysts expect the domestic urea market to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in December, with limited downside due to cost and production cuts, while the upward momentum is also constrained by supply-demand imbalances [1] Company Summary - Guozheng International recently reported that the second phase of the Jiujiang base was successfully put into operation in Q3 2025, utilizing more efficient, environmentally friendly, and energy-saving technology, resulting in a 10% reduction in comprehensive production costs at full urea production capacity [1] - By the end of 2025, the completion of the new chemical materials project at the Xinxiang base is expected to further expand urea production capacity and effectively reduce production costs by approximately 12% [1] - With the gradual release of low-cost production capacity, the profitability of Heartland Fertilizer is anticipated to significantly improve [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 25% in the past six trading days, with a current price of 9.4 HKD and a trading volume of 108 million HKD [1] Industry Summary - The domestic urea market in China is experiencing a fluctuating upward trend, with the main regional small particle ex-factory prices rising to the range of 1580-1680 RMB/ton [1] - Analysts predict that the domestic urea market will maintain a weak fluctuation pattern in December, with limited downside due to cost and production cuts, while the upward momentum is also constrained by supply-demand imbalances [1] Company Summary - Guozheng International recently reported that the second phase of the Jiujiang base successfully commenced operations in Q3 2025, utilizing more efficient, environmentally friendly, and energy-saving technology, resulting in a 10% reduction in comprehensive production costs at full urea production capacity [1] - By the end of 2025, the completion of the new chemical materials project at the Xinxiang base will further expand urea production capacity, effectively reducing production costs by approximately 12% [1] - With the gradual release of low-cost production capacity, the profitability of China Heartland Fertilizer is expected to significantly improve [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Sifang has experienced a decrease in revenue and net profit, while also showing activity in financing and margin trading [1][2] Group 2 - As of December 1, Hong Sifang's stock price increased by 0.31%, with a trading volume of 94.09 million yuan [1] - On December 1, the financing buy amount was 16.14 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 11.59 million yuan, resulting in a net financing purchase of 4.55 million yuan [1] - The total balance of margin trading for Hong Sifang reached 165 million yuan as of December 1 [1] Group 3 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders for Hong Sifang was 25,300, a decrease of 5.10% compared to the previous period [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Hong Sifang reported operating revenue of 2.481 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.84 million yuan, down 59.02% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 30 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [2] Group 4 - The largest circulating shareholder of Hong Sifang is the Southern CSI 1000 ETF, holding 711,200 shares, which is a decrease of 13,400 shares from the previous period [2] - New shareholders include Yuanxin Yongfeng Medical Health A, holding 450,000 shares, and the Fortune CSI Agricultural Theme ETF, holding 287,500 shares [2]

分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --12月尿素月度报告 发布日期：2025年12月1日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 核心观点 供应端：近期日产位于19-20万吨附近波动，高位日产持续压制尿素价格，目前气头装置暂未大规模集中限气停产，日产大幅同比偏高。按 照目前日均产量测算，11月份产量预计在599万吨，高于往年同期水平。进入供暖高峰期，气头装置受限气影响，逐渐开启检修停产，预计 12月日产将环比下降。 需求端：下游需求成交顺畅，东北地区掺混肥需求下，大颗粒走货转好，复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产， 已有部分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12月份将继续高负荷生产，目前预收订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，为华北 大部小麦返青 肥、春玉米肥备货。其他工业需求刚需托底为主，房地产低迷拖累开工。 库存端：自十月中旬以来，尿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fubon Technology's oxygen-releasing fertilizer is developed based on its sand-type fertilizer granulation technology, which has been evaluated by experts to reach an internationally leading level [2] Group 1: Product Development - The company's self-developed SoilOptix soil CT scanning technology serves as the first step in a comprehensive solution for "cost reduction and yield increase" [2] - SoilOptix technology enables rapid soil testing and evaluation, guiding subsequent soil testing, fertilization, and customized plant protection techniques [2] Group 2: Agricultural Impact - The technology ensures that crops receive the most suitable nutrients at each growth stage [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement indicates that a major shareholder, Gao Jinhua, has released a portion of their pledged shares, which does not affect the company's control or pose any risks to its operations [1] Group 1: Share Pledge Details - Gao Jinhua has released 57,625,000 shares from pledge, representing 14.81% of their holdings and 5% of the company's total share capital [1] - The pledge was initiated on November 29, 2024, and will be released on November 28, 2025 [1] - As of the announcement date, the major shareholder and their concerted parties have a total of 135,290,000 shares pledged, which is 22.38% of their holdings and 11.75% of the company's total share capital [1] Group 2: Impact on Company - The release of pledged shares will not lead to any change in the actual control of the company [1] - There is no risk of forced liquidation associated with this pledge release [1] - The overall impact on the company is deemed neutral, with no adverse effects anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fertilizer stocks have shown strong performance, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as China Heart and Heart Fertilizer, Sinochem Fertilizer, and CNOOC Chemical, following the agreement on potash fertilizer import prices for 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Heart and Heart Fertilizer (01866) rose by 4.55% to HKD 8.74 [1] - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) increased by 4.58% to HKD 1.6 [1] - CNOOC Chemical (03983) saw a rise of 4.53% to HKD 2.54 [1] Group 2: Potash Fertilizer Pricing - The Chinese negotiation team reached an agreement with major international potash suppliers, setting the 2026 import contract price at USD 348 per ton (CFR), which is an increase of USD 2 per ton compared to 2025 [1] - This pricing strategy continues to maintain a "price lowland" for global potash fertilizers, ensuring stable domestic supply and pricing [1] Group 3: Urea Market Dynamics - In November, urea daily production is expected to remain high due to policy support and profit recovery, which exerts significant pressure on prices [1] - Export policy adjustments have been timely and continuous, alleviating pressure on the fundamentals and reducing the intensity of price declines [1] - Short-term spot prices are supported, leading to improved industry sentiment, with domestic urea market conditions remaining stable to slightly strong [1] - Rising coal prices are also contributing to support for urea prices by increasing cash flow cost lines [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fertilizer stocks have shown strong performance, with notable increases in share prices following the agreement on potash import prices for 2026, which is expected to stabilize domestic supply and prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Heart and Heart Fertilizer (01866) increased by 4.55%, reaching HKD 8.74 [1] - Sinochem Fertilizer (00297) rose by 4.58%, reaching HKD 1.6 [1] - CNOOC Chemical (03983) saw a rise of 4.53%, reaching HKD 2.54 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On November 23, a consensus was reached between the Chinese potash import negotiation team and major international suppliers, setting the 2026 potash import contract price at USD 348 per ton (CFR), a year-on-year increase of USD 2 per ton compared to 2025 [1] - The agreement helps maintain China's position as a "price lowland" for global potash, ensuring stable domestic supply and price [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the daily production of urea is expected to remain high due to policy support and profit recovery, which exerts significant pressure on prices [1] - However, timely adjustments in export policies have alleviated some downward pressure on prices, leading to a more stable short-term market for domestic urea [1] - Rising coal prices are also contributing to support for urea prices by increasing cash flow cost lines for coal-based production [1]