证券之星消息，9月22日化学纤维板块较上一交易日上涨0.42%，吉林化纤领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3828.58，上涨0.22%。深证成指报收于13157.97，上涨0.67%。化学纤维板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000420 | 吉林化纤 | 4.74 | 7.73% | 435.20万 | 20.58亿 | | 836077 | 吉林碳谷 | 15.22 | 3.40% | 12.13万 | 1.85亿 | | 600810 | 神马股份 | 10.41 | 3.27% | 33.07万 | 3.41亿 | | 603382 | 海阳科技 | 38.20 | 2.36% | - 3.99万 | 1.50亿 | | 000949 | 新乡化纤 | 4.32 | 2.13% | 60.84万 | 2.62亿 | | 600370 | 三房巷 | 2.12 | 1.44% | 36.99万 | 7727.68万 | | 300905 | 宝丽迪 | 35. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA: Near - term TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases slightly, polyester load remains stable, inventory accumulates slightly, the basis weakens, and spot processing fees recover slightly. PX domestic start - up decreases, overseas devices operate smoothly, PXN weakens month - on - month, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remain stable, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia widens. In the future, as device restarts slow down TA destocking, polyester shows no unexpected performance, and new production is added, far - month inventory accumulation is expected. However, processing fees have reached a very low level for a long time, and PX supply gradually returns. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees under potential additional maintenance [1]. - For MEG: Near - term domestic oil - based EG slightly reduces load, coal - based start - up remains stable, overseas maintenance and restarts coexist, arrivals remain stable while shipments are dull, and port inventory accumulates slightly at the beginning of next week. Downstream stocking levels rise, the basis weakens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio shrinks. Near - term new device commissioning is earlier than expected, and valuation is significantly compressed. In the future, with the increase in arrivals month - on - month and the expectation of high supply in the far - month, ports may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the actual inventory is still not high, and valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [1]. - For polyester staple fiber: Upstream, Zhongtai and Xianglu increase load, and the start - up rate rises to 95.4%. Sales improve month - on - month, and inventory continues to decline. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material stocking increases, and finished - product inventory decreases. In the future, the rate of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The start - up of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, but inventory pressure is limited, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [1]. - For natural rubber: The national explicit inventory remains stable. The price of Thai cup rubber remains stable, and there is rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For styrene and its derivatives: There are fluctuations in prices and production profits of styrene and related products such as ABS, EPS, and PS. The start - up rates of these products also show certain trends, but no clear overall prediction is given in the report [1]. 3. Summary by Product - related Content PTA - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated between 66.7 - 68.5. PTA spot prices were around 6655 - 6710, and the average daily trading basis was 2601(- 82). PX processing spreads were between 105.04 - 114.16 [1]. - **Device status**: Zhongtai Chemical's 1.2 million - ton device is under maintenance [1]. MEG - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, MEG prices fluctuated. For example, the Northeast Asian ethylene price was 850 (except on September 19 when it was 845), and the MEG port inventory was 46.5. The basis was around 01(+ 90) [1]. - **Device status**: Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device stopped operating again [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - related - **Market data**: The spot price was around 6412, and the market basis was around 10 - 20. - **Device status**: Zhongtai and Xianglu increased their loads, and the start - up rate reached 95.4% [1]. Natural Rubber - related - **Market data**: From September 1 - 9, 2025, prices of various types of natural rubber such as Shanghai full - cream rubber, Thai mixed rubber, etc. fluctuated. For example, the price of Shanghai full - cream rubber was between 14,335 - 16,100 [1]. - **Analysis**: The national explicit inventory remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable [1]. Styrene and Derivatives - related - **Market data**: From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of ethylene, pure benzene, styrene, etc. fluctuated. For example, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) was 850, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) was between 5885 - 6080 [1]. - **Profit situation**: Profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. also changed daily [1].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 9 月 22 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250922 ■重点关注 【固定收益】"快降息"与"慢降息"*张鹏 肖成哲。如果市场相信美联储 "慢降息"，就可能实现"快降息"的效果；如果市场相信美联储"快降息"， 反而可能实现"慢降息"的效果。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3820.09 | (0.30) | | 深证成指 | 13070.86 | (0.04) | | 沪深 300 | 4501.92 | 0.08 | | 中小 100 | 8037.16 | 0.20 | | 创业板指 | 3091.00 | (0.16) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 煤炭 | 1.97 | 汽车 | (1.94) | | 有色金属 | 1.19 | 医药生物 | (1.41) | | 建筑材料 | 1.05 | 计算机 | (1.26) | | 社会服务 | 1.01 | 非银金融 | ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with the underperforming banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Strategies - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stop here. They highlight the positive implications of the recent US-China talks and the potential for capital market reforms to accelerate, suggesting that the A/H share indices may reach new highs [2] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market is in the making, with a focus on cyclical opportunities in manufacturing and a shift from technology-driven growth to export-oriented growth as liquidity constraints ease [2] - Zheshang Securities anticipates continued consolidation in the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach and suggesting adjustments in sector allocations, particularly reducing exposure to technology and media while increasing positions in real estate and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities expects the A-share market to maintain a volatile pattern leading up to the National Day holiday, with a focus on structural balance amid potential profit-taking [4] - China Merchants Securities notes a historical pattern of financing trends around the National Day holiday, suggesting a potential rebound in market sentiment post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial Securities emphasizes a rotational investment strategy to navigate market volatility, advocating for a diversified approach across multiple sectors [6][7] - CITIC Securities highlights the clarity in market trading themes following the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery as key drivers [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of structural support from policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four main investment themes in the construction sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [11]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.30%, while sectors like power equipment, electronics, and communications continued to lead in gains, contrasting with stagnant performance in banking, non-banking, and food and beverage sectors [1] Broker Insights - Guotai Junan Securities believes that the recent market adjustment presents an opportunity, asserting that the Chinese stock market will not stagnate and is expected to reach new highs, driven by favorable conditions such as a stable short-term risk outlook and potential capital market reforms [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that a bull market may be in the making, with opportunities arising from the easing of liquidity constraints and a shift towards cyclical manufacturing sectors like non-ferrous metals, machinery, and chemicals [2] - Zheshang Securities suggests a period of consolidation for the Shanghai Composite Index, recommending a cautious approach to investment and a focus on sectors like hard technology and infrastructure [3] - Everbright Securities anticipates continued market fluctuations leading up to the National Day holiday, with a tendency for funds to secure profits amid uncertainties [4] - According to China Merchants Securities, historical patterns suggest that financing activities typically contract before the holiday and surge afterward, with a focus on sectors like solid-state batteries and AI [5] - Industrial rotation is emphasized by Industrial Securities, advocating for a diversified approach to investment to navigate market volatility [6][7] - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the clarity in future market trends following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a focus on AI and domestic demand recovery [8] - Huaxia Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook despite short-term fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of sectors like AI and essential materials [9] - Galaxy Securities recommends four investment themes in the construction sector, focusing on urban renewal and digital transformation in construction [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth in China's chemical fiber industry, with a projected production of 7.35 million tons in May 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [1] - Cumulative production from January to May 2025 is reported at 35.037 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 5.5% [1] - The articles reference a market analysis report by Zhiyan Consulting, which covers the operational status and investment prospects of the chemical fiber industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1][2] Group 2 - Listed companies in the chemical fiber sector include Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, Hengli Petrochemical, Huafeng Superfiber, and others [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing comprehensive industry research reports and tailored services [2]

Market Overview - On September 19, the chemical fiber sector rose by 0.41% compared to the previous trading day, with Baolidi leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] Top Performers - Baolidi (300905) closed at 35.46, up 2.87% with a trading volume of 181,100 shares and a transaction value of 658 million yuan [1] - Jilin Chemical Fiber (000420) closed at 4.40, up 2.56% with a trading volume of 1,354,100 shares and a transaction value of 591 million yuan [1] - Zhongfu Shenying (688285) closed at 27.27, up 2.52% with a trading volume of 52,800 shares and a transaction value of 144 million yuan [1] Underperformers - Suzhou Longjie (603332) closed at 14.08, down 4.48% with a trading volume of 134,700 shares and a transaction value of 191 million yuan [2] - Nanjing Chemical Fiber (600889) closed at 15.73, down 3.97% with a trading volume of 118,900 shares and a transaction value of 189 million yuan [2] - Sanfangxiang (600370) closed at 2.09, down 3.24% with a trading volume of 340,000 shares and a transaction value of 71.55 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The chemical fiber sector saw a net inflow of 79.70 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 38.46 million yuan [2] - Jilin Chemical Fiber had a net inflow of 1.01 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 85.84 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Huafeng Chemical (002064) had a net inflow of 25.42 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 1.15 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - On September 18, the chemical fiber sector declined by 0.91%, with Hengshen New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the chemical fiber sector included: - Suzhou Longjie: closed at 14.74, up 5.59% with a trading volume of 241,700 shares and a turnover of 365 million yuan [1] - Juhe Shun: closed at 12.42, up 2.48% with a trading volume of 253,000 shares and a turnover of 319 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Hengshen New Materials: closed at 6.01, down 4.91% with a trading volume of 260,800 shares and a turnover of 160 million yuan [2] - Huanwei High-tech: closed at 5.76, down 3.68% with a trading volume of 693,900 shares and a turnover of 408 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The chemical fiber sector experienced a net outflow of 26.31 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 44.93 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 71.24 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Suzhou Longjie had a net inflow of 74.31 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 40.77 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Nanjing Chemical Fiber saw a net inflow of 39.95 million yuan from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 44.97 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Huaxi Co. recorded a net inflow of 23.89 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 29.40 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 聚合顺 experienced a stock price increase of 5.12%, reaching 12.74 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 140 million yuan and a turnover rate of 3.55%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 4.01 billion yuan [1] - 聚合顺 New Materials Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, established on November 1, 2013, and listed on June 18, 2020. The company's main business involves the research, production, and sales of nylon new materials [1] - The revenue composition of 聚合顺 includes: fiber-grade slices 65.57%, engineering plastic-grade slices 30.63%, film-grade slices 3.33%, other slices 0.43%, and materials 0.04% [1] Group 2 - 富国基金's 富国优化增强债券C (100037) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of 聚合顺 in the second quarter, holding 2.1614 million shares, accounting for 0.69% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 1.3401 million yuan [2] - 富国优化增强债券C (100037) was established on June 10, 2009, with a latest scale of 553 million yuan. Year-to-date return is 19.52%, ranking 69 out of 6222 in its category; the one-year return is 46.63%, ranking 32 out of 5915; and the return since inception is 141.96% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of 富国优化增强债券C (100037) is Liu Xingwang, who has a cumulative tenure of 14 years and 226 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 15.304 billion yuan, with the best fund return during his tenure being 56.93% and the worst being 0.3% [3]

Market Overview - On September 17, the chemical fiber sector declined by 0.63%, with Huilong New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the chemical fiber sector included: - Tongyi Zhong: closed at 20.36, up 3.09% with a trading volume of 117,500 shares and a turnover of 239 million yuan [1] - Wanwei High-tech: closed at 5.98, up 1.36% with a trading volume of 561,900 shares and a turnover of 333 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Huilong New Materials: closed at 26.33, down 5.93% with a trading volume of 39,400 shares and a turnover of 106 million yuan [2] - Shenma Co.: closed at 9.71, down 4.24% with a trading volume of 323,700 shares and a turnover of 318 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The chemical fiber sector experienced a net outflow of 119 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 112 million yuan [2][3] - The capital flow for key stocks showed: - Wanwei High-tech: net inflow of 20.83 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 10.29 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Huilong New Materials: significant net outflow of 18.21 million yuan from speculative funds [3]