转自：新华财经 5月14日早上9点，贝发京东自营店店长骆晨东已经坐在了京东办公区的工位上开启了一天的工作。这是 他驻场京东的第二周，也是他扛起贝发集团（以下简称"贝发"）首个网络店铺大旗后，全身心投入网店 运营学习的一段宝贵时光。 "接到京东驻场通知的时候，我既紧张又兴奋。"骆晨东回忆道，"贝发从来没有开过线上店铺，在这方 面还属于空白，梳理线上运营流程是当前的燃眉之急。京东不仅提供了驻场机会，还在开店流程、运 营、产品开发、营销获客方面给予了全方位的支持。"今天，他要和京东团队共同确定贝发京东自营店 需要上线的具体品类，为贝发3年内京东全渠道销售额达到10亿迈出重要一步。 京东助力贝发启动自救之路 骆晨东所供职的贝发，对许多消费者来说或许有些陌生，但其在文具行业早已声名远扬。这家成立于 1994年的制笔企业，从三十余人的制笔作坊起步，仅用两年的时间就以年销售额2600万美元的佳绩，超 过了当时上海四大制笔上市公司的总和。在之后的发展历程中，贝发集团不仅成立了业内首家制笔研究 中心，仅成立3年就将产品销售到世界80多个国家和地区，如今已销往200多个国家和地区，成了中国最 大的文具出口厂商。 2024年，贝发 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook for mid-term growth, suggesting a potential "buy" or "hold" recommendation based on expected recovery in revenue and profit [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.2% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and weak macroeconomic demand [1][2]. - The traditional core business is under short-term pressure, but the product matrix is expected to revitalize through the development of popular products and collaboration with well-known IPs [2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product structure and increasing the share of self-owned brands, particularly in the lifestyle segment, which has shown growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the traditional core business generated approximately 2.054 billion yuan in revenue, a decline of 5.2% year-on-year. The breakdown by category shows writing instruments, student stationery, and traditional office supplies with revenues of 564 million, 803 million, and 849 million yuan respectively [2]. - The gross margins for these categories were 43.8%, 35.6%, and 28.5%, with slight variations year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 20.7% and a net profit margin of 6.3% in Q1 2025, with stable operating cash flow of 112 million yuan [4]. Business Segments - The KOLIPU segment reported a revenue of 2.79 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 5.3% year-on-year, but profitability remained stable. The company anticipates a recovery in this segment as downstream bidding normalizes [3]. - The lifestyle segment, including the Jiumu Lifestyle brand, achieved a revenue of 401 million yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year, with the Jiumu brand alone generating 388 million yuan, an increase of 11.5% [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see a return to stable growth in revenue and profit as the macroeconomic environment improves. Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 1.52 billion, 1.66 billion, and 1.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X [4][5].

风险提示：关税影响传导至内需，国内经济表现超预期 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告： 五一消费：出行高增，服务偏强 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 【策略 】 重要转折之后：中国股市有望进一步走高 大势研判：中国 A/H 股市有望进一步走高。 国泰海通策略在 4 月 7 日市场低点，旗帜鲜明判断"中国股 市进入击球区"、"继续看多中国股市"、"中国股市的升势远未结束"。 节前上证指数接近 3300 点，五一 期间恒生科技单日大涨 3.1% ，收复"对等关税"失地。 我们认为， 3-4 月股市的调整与有力的修复，是 继 924 后再一次的重要转折。其表明， 投资者关于中美竞争的严峻性与对决策层扭转形势决心的疑虑消 减，既是风险释放也是试金石。 展望下一阶段，我们维持对中国股市的乐观看法： 1 ） 遍历冲击后，投 资人对经济形势的认识已然充分，包括交易结构的出清，是股市好转的重要前提。 2 ）美国"对等关税"落 地后，总体上进入拉锯与谈判的窗口期，尽管仍有不确定性，但第一阶段的激烈摩擦告一段落，形成有利 的做多窗口。 3 ）既然中美的竞争是长期性的，由此，股市预期的关键"在 ...

每经记者 陈鹏丽 每经编辑 张海妮 尽管是"五一"小长假，第137届中国进出口商品交易会（以下简称广交会）第三期展会现场依然客流如织，人气高涨。 美国的"对等关税"并未影响中国参展商的心情和外国采购商的热情，但热闹之下，也有一些微妙的变化。比如，本届广交会，欧美客户数量减少，取而代之 的是其他国家采购商的"补位"。同时，中国参展商为求更多出路，纷纷加大订单争夺力度。 5月1日，中国对外贸易中心宣布，为帮助外贸企业积极应对外部风险挑战，本届广交会对出口展参展企业减免50%展位费。此举让参展商们受到鼓舞，因为 在他们看来，这说明了中国有很多措施应对当前的关税变局。 5月2日，《每日经济新闻》记者专访了中国大型文具出口商贝发集团股份有限公司（以下简称贝发集团）董事长邱智铭。在贝发集团的营收构成中，美国市 场占了近30%的份额。邱智铭不逃避"对等关税"给公司带来的影响，但他也表示，贝发集团手中有"牌"可打，公司有能力，也有信心化解关税影响。 "美国人每人每年用我们3~5支笔。他们不用我们的，就要花高几倍的价格去买国际品牌。"邱智铭说，"我们的预期是，二季度会受到影响，三季度会恢复， 四季度会逆势增长。全年预计依然能够 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][10] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual recovery in its traditional core business and new business segments, leading to long-term stable growth [10] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company has shown signs of improvement that are anticipated to be released in the future [10] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 923.83 million [2] - Market price: ¥31.32 [2] - Market capitalization: ¥28,934.31 million [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: ¥23,351 million, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024A: ¥24,228 million, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025E: ¥1,693 million, with a growth rate of 21% [4] - Projected EPS for 2025E: ¥1.83 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of ¥5.645 billion in writing tools, showing a slight decline of 0.07% year-on-year [8] - The online business segment, particularly Morning Glory Technology, achieved a revenue of ¥3.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.57% [10] - The retail segment, including Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society, reported a revenue of ¥4.01 billion, with an increase of 8.03% year-on-year [9] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved slightly to 20.65%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.28%, down 1.08 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The projected net asset return rate for 2025E is 15% [4]

Group 1 - The investment rating for the industry is not explicitly stated in the provided content [2] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the company, 卡游, is a leading enterprise in the domestic collectible card game market, achieving significant revenue growth and expanding its product lines into stationery and other toy categories [4][6][18] - The report indicates that the collectible card game segment has the fastest growth rate in the entertainment toy industry, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, and the market size is projected to reach 263 billion RMB in 2024, accounting for 25.8% of the overall entertainment toy market [4][33][37] Group 2 - The company has a diversified IP matrix with 70 IPs, including popular franchises like Ultraman and My Little Pony, which contribute significantly to its revenue [44][46] - The company has established a strong operational capability in IP management, covering the entire process from market research to product design and marketing [49] - The company has a robust sales channel strategy, primarily relying on distributors, with a gradual shift towards direct sales and online platforms [64][66] Group 3 - The financial performance of the company shows a rapid revenue increase, with a reported revenue of 100.6 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 277.8% [4][18] - The revenue breakdown indicates that collectible card games accounted for 81.5% of total revenue in 2024, although this represents a slight decline from previous years [18][57] - The company plans to use IPO proceeds to expand production facilities, enhance IP resources, and strengthen digital operations [23][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [5]. - The company is actively expanding into the "second dimension IP" sector, focusing on products that appeal to younger consumers, enhancing the emotional value of its offerings [7]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 7.5%, 6.4%, and 5.5% respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 7.6%, 9.2%, and 8.5% in the same period [8]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 20.65%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 6.07% [6]. - The company’s revenue from various product lines showed mixed results, with writing tools and office supplies experiencing slight declines, while the "Morning Light Living Hall" and "Morning Light Technology" segments saw growth [5]. - The company expects revenues of 26.056 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.502 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery trend after a challenging 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Glory Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first quarter of 2025, marking the first such occurrence since 2021, with revenue at 5.245 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, and net profit at 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Morning Glory achieved total revenue of 24.228 billion yuan, an increase of 3.76% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.396 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.58% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue across major business segments, including writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies, with respective revenues of 803 million yuan, 848 million yuan, and 2.790 billion yuan, each declining over 5% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The company categorizes its operations into traditional core businesses and new businesses, with the former including writing tools, student stationery, and office supplies, while the latter encompasses office direct sales and retail stores [2] - The office direct sales business, which has been a revenue pillar, accounted for over 50% of total revenue, but its gross margin fell to 7.08% in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [2] New Business Developments - The retail store business, represented by Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store and Morning Glory Life Hall, is seen as a key area for brand and product upgrades, with 792 retail stores nationwide as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store reported revenue of 388 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 11.37% year-on-year, but faced a net loss of 12.4428 million yuan in 2024 [3] Strategic Focus - Morning Glory's management indicated plans to enhance investment in IP (intellectual property) products and increase the proportion of proprietary brands to cater to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [3] - The company aims to leverage its independent toy brand "Qizhi Haowan" to focus on IP incubation and brand collaboration, targeting the "two-dimensional IP" market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 11.397 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.69%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 62.82 million RMB, down 18.32% year-on-year due to a provision for asset and credit impairment losses of 120 million RMB [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.212 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, with a net profit of 48.87 million RMB, down 1.14% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to focus on core clients and business scenarios in office procurement, which is anticipated to lead to stable growth in business scale [1] - The company plans to enhance IP collaboration in new stationery products, which is expected to contribute to growth [1] - After the impairment provisions, the company is expected to recover its profitability in 2025 [1] Revenue and Profitability - The B2B office supplies and new stationery business generated a revenue of 11.352 billion RMB in 2024, up 3.00% year-on-year, with a net profit of 22 million RMB, down 9.8% year-on-year excluding goodwill impairment [2] - The SaaS software and services segment reported a revenue of 45 million RMB in 2024, down 41.93% year-on-year, with a net loss of 110 million RMB, slightly narrowing from a loss of 112 million RMB in 2023 [2] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.21 percentage points to 8.59%, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses and improved operational efficiency [3] - The operating expense ratio decreased by 0.50 percentage points to 6.46%, with the sales expense ratio increasing by 0.10 percentage points to 4.99% due to higher marketing expenses [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at 222.91 million RMB, 280.47 million RMB, and 339.96 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 RMB, 0.39 RMB, and 0.47 RMB [4][6] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 8.37 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 27 times for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target price of 7.03 RMB [4][8] - The current market capitalization is approximately 5.028 billion RMB, with a closing price of 6.97 RMB as of April 25 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the leisure services sector is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The consumer market is showing steady recovery, with March retail sales reaching 40,940.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [11][12] - The rural consumption growth rate continues to outpace urban areas, driven by the rural revitalization strategy [14][24] - The service consumption and cultural tourism markets are driving steady growth, with a significant increase in travel during the Qingming holiday [26][29] - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with a retail penetration rate of 51.1% in March, supported by government subsidies [31][32] - The online retail market is showing strong growth momentum, with total online retail sales reaching 1.3 trillion yuan in March, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [34][35] Summary by Sections Social Retail - In March 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 40,940.5 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 4.6% year-on-year for the first three months [12][22] - Rural consumption in March was 5,345.1 billion yuan, growing 5.3% year-on-year, indicating stronger resilience compared to urban areas [14][24] - Essential goods such as grain and oil saw a significant increase of 13.8% in retail sales, while beverage sales increased by 4.4% [21][24] Travel and Services - The service consumption market continued its strong momentum, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% in service retail sales compared to goods retail [26] - During the Qingming holiday, 126 million people traveled, spending 57.549 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 6.7% respectively [29][30] Low Carbon and New Energy - In Q1 2025, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 2.414 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37% [31] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 51.1% in March, with government policies stimulating demand through subsidies [31][32] E-commerce - The total online retail sales in March reached 1.3 trillion yuan, with physical goods sales at 1.13 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [34] - The adjustment of operational models in response to high tariffs has led to a shift towards semi-managed logistics, reducing costs significantly [35]