Core Insights - The Chinese luggage market is experiencing rapid growth driven by cross-border e-commerce, with the global market nearing $200 billion and China's market expected to reach 146.4 billion yuan in 2024, ranking second globally [1][2] - The industry is shifting towards "high-end, customized, and environmentally friendly" products as domestic companies break down production barriers related to materials, craftsmanship, and design inspiration [1] - Songmont, a local brand, utilizes recycled ocean waste leather, full-grain cowhide, and natural rubber glue, infusing each product with deep Eastern aesthetic culture while meeting diverse consumer needs [1][2] Industry Trends - The most popular segments among young consumers are handbags and crossbody bags, which combine stylish design with practical functionality, leading to innovative products that cater to consumer aesthetics and needs [1] - The brand's recent cultural IP exhibition "SONG of MONT" at Paris Fashion Week and new store openings in Shanghai, Taiyuan, and Nanjing during the National Day holiday further solidify its strategic development and promote innovation in the Chinese luggage market [2] - The strategy of "going global" is crucial for Chinese enterprises, with a focus on innovative design, brand building, and quality enhancement rather than low-price strategies [2] Competitive Landscape - The pursuit of quality and long-term commitment is the foundation for competing in the global market, with Chinese luggage brands confidently adopting innovative approaches to reach international audiences [2] - The brand's exhibition showcased elements of ancient Shanxi architecture and Silk Road culture, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic brands and contributing to the continuous growth of the market [2]

Core Points - The 2025 China Baigou International Bag Expo opened on October 18, attracting over 2,500 buyers from more than 50 countries and regions [1][3] - The expo focuses on "digital empowerment, cross-border integration, and brand win-win" and features various official matchmaking events with global e-commerce platforms [3][6] - The event showcases over 1,000 new products and popular items from around 200 local brands, covering an exhibition area of approximately 30,000 square meters [3][7] Industry Overview - Baigou has been recognized as "China's Bag Capital" by the China Light Industry Federation and the China Leather Association, with a complete industrial chain from raw material supply to cross-border trade [7] - The local industry comprises over 4,000 production enterprises, generating an annual output value of 47.1 billion yuan, with a domestic market share of 30% [7] - The annual production of bags in Baigou reaches 1 billion units, with over 2.5 million varieties available [7] Event Highlights - The expo features ten themed exhibition areas and 231 standard booths, including special displays for drones and smart robots, showcasing innovations in intelligent production and digital design [3][6] - Five industrial ecological projects were promoted, including the TianDe Smart Link Cross-Border E-Commerce Base and the "Zhi Chuang Baigou" innovation design intellectual property protection initiative [6] - The event will last for three days and includes 14 themed activities, such as a leather design competition and high-end supply chain matchmaking events [6][7]

Group 1 - The Chinese luggage market is experiencing rapid growth driven by cross-border e-commerce, with the global market size nearing $200 billion and China's market projected to reach 146.4 billion yuan in 2024, ranking second globally [1] - The market is expected to grow to 157.7 billion yuan by 2025, indicating the potential of lower-tier markets being released [1] Group 2 - The transformation from "material satisfaction" to "long-termism" is evident as domestic companies break production barriers related to materials, craftsmanship, and design, leading to a trend of "premium, customized, and eco-friendly" products in the luggage market [2] - Popular segments among young consumers include handbags and crossbody bags, with a focus on stylish designs and practical functionality, prompting innovation in product offerings [2] - The brand Songmont has emerged as a leader in the niche market by using eco-friendly materials and infusing products with deep cultural aesthetics, showcasing its products at the Paris Fashion Week [2] Group 3 - The strategy of "going global" is crucial for Chinese enterprises, with brands like Songmont relying on innovative design, brand building, and quality enhancement rather than low-price strategies [3] - Songmont's products reflect the rich cultural heritage of Central China, enhancing their appeal in the global market, and the brand's commitment to quality and long-termism strengthens its competitive edge [3] - The brand's recent cultural IP exhibition showcased traditional elements, enhancing the visibility of Chinese brands on the world stage and contributing to the growing market scale of domestic brands [3]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has adjusted Samsonite's (01910) earnings forecast for 2025 down by 2%, but raised the 2026 earnings forecast by 3% due to stronger recovery potential in the Asian and North American markets. The rating remains "Hold" due to a lack of catalysts and low visibility. However, a stronger recovery is expected in 2026 supported by global travel demand. The target price has been slightly increased from HKD 15 to HKD 16 [1][1][1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 2% while the forecast for 2026 has been increased by 3% [1][1] - The expected revenue decline for Q3 is projected to narrow to 1.4%, aligning with management guidance [1][1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Tumi's overall performance is expected to improve, while American Tourister remains the weakest brand [1][1] - Adjusted EBITDA margin is anticipated to remain under pressure due to regional structural changes and operational deleveraging [1][1] Group 3: Market Insights - The gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin are expected to decline by 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 58.6% and 17% respectively [1][1] - There is cautious optimism regarding the turnaround of the Indian business in 2026, as major competitors have undergone significant restructuring, potentially leading to more rational market competition [1][1] - The dual listing plan in the U.S. is believed to be progressing, but may not materialize until mid-2026 at the earliest [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite's stock has increased by over 4%, currently trading at HKD 16.58, with a transaction volume of HKD 35.14 million. The company will hold a board meeting on November 12 to consider and approve its quarterly performance report for the three and nine months ending September 30, 2025 [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Samsonite's sales decreased by 5.2% on a constant currency basis. However, it is expected that sales will gradually improve in the second half, with the decline narrowing to 3.3%, primarily due to a lower comparison base, especially in the third quarter, which is the lowest for the year [1]. - HSBC forecasts that sales in the third quarter will decline by 2.5% on a constant currency basis [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - HSBC maintains a target price of HKD 21 and a "Buy" rating for Samsonite, anticipating a potential revaluation of the stock as sales are expected to improve in the third quarter of this year and return to growth next year [1]. - There is a clear possibility of the company pursuing a dual listing in the United States in the first half of next year [1].

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite (01910) shares rose over 4%, currently up 4.61% at HKD 16.58, with a trading volume of HKD 35.14 million [1] Financial Performance - Samsonite will hold a board meeting on November 12 to consider and approve the quarterly performance report for the three and nine months ending September 30, 2023 [1] - HSBC reported that Samsonite's sales decreased by 5.2% in the first half of the year on a constant currency basis, but expects a gradual improvement in the second half, with the decline narrowing to 3.3% [1] - The bank anticipates a 2.5% drop in sales for the third quarter, which has the lowest comparison base of the year [1] Investment Outlook - HSBC maintains a target price of HKD 21 and a "Buy" rating for Samsonite, suggesting potential for a revaluation of shares as sales are expected to improve in the third quarter and return to growth next year [1] - There is a clear possibility of the group achieving a dual listing in the United States in the first half of next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Daiwa indicates that due to a low base effect, the expected revenue decline for Samsonite in Q3 will narrow to 1.4%, aligning with management guidance [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to remain under pressure due to regional structural changes and operational deleveraging, with projected Q3 gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin decreasing by 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 58.6% and 17% respectively [1] Future Outlook - The dual listing plan in the U.S. is believed to be progressing, but it may not be realized until mid-2026 at the earliest [1] - The earnings per share forecast for 2025 has been lowered by 2%, while the forecast for 2026 has been raised by 3% due to potentially stronger recoveries in the Asian and North American markets [1] - A stronger recovery is anticipated in 2026 supported by ongoing global travel demand, leading to a slight increase in the target price from HKD 15 to HKD 16, while maintaining a "Hold" rating due to a lack of catalysts and low visibility [1]

大跳水，暴跌40%，又土又贵还开遍机场，中产的标配，卖不动了 2025年4月30日，香港股市收盘，那个老箱子品牌的股票又是绿的，收盘价直接闪崩，跌到了三年前的 三分之二，交易大厅里有个男人戴着口罩，眼睛却盯着屏幕发红，他一边打电话一边低声骂着，声音压 低但咬字尖锐，像是怕吵醒谁，又像是咬碎牙齿。 "还买不买了？"我问。 "砍了吧，砍了吧，"电话那头说，"没人要了。" 没人要了，真没人要了？不是说机场还是堆着全新行李箱，玻璃柜后面灯光一亮，像展览品一样安静 吗？可人流过去，偶尔有人停下手指点点，问一句多少钱，然后低头走了。柜姐的笑容有点僵，手指头 在柜台后面不知转着什么小玩意儿，仿佛她们也不想再多说一句。 有个段子在业内流传："以前机场看行李箱认人，现在机场看行李箱认品牌消亡速度。"听起来滑稽，背 后却是真实数据的凝结。2024年中国箱包市场份额前十三，老品牌榜上无名。新品牌攻城略地，名字都 不好记，定价却很"接地气"。 去年这个时候，2024年5月，朋友圈里还能刷到有人晒新箱子，配文大致是"出差必备""提气场"，今年 春天，连话都懒得说。小红书上最火的行李箱帖子点赞过万，牌子却全变了，国产的居多，名字奇奇怪 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley increased its stake in Samsonite (01910) by acquiring 3.185837 million shares at an average price of HKD 16.7576 per share, totaling approximately HKD 53.387 million [1] - Following the acquisition, Morgan Stanley's total shareholding in Samsonite reached approximately 176 million shares, representing a 12% ownership stake [1]

Core Insights - The integration of "Chinese industry" with "global design" is redefining product possibilities, highlighted by the conclusion of the 2025 Hebei International Industrial Design Week, which attracted participation from over 2,488 design institutions and innovative enterprises from more than 70 countries and regions since its inception in 2018 [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The design week showcased over 24,000 design pieces from both domestic and international sources, drawing global attention to the event [1] - High-level exhibitions and international product launches were held, focusing on cutting-edge design trends and facilitating design matchmaking sessions with countries like Italy, Denmark, and Japan [1][2] Group 2: Industry Focus - The design matchmaking sessions targeted specific needs in Hebei's fashion industry clusters, such as bag manufacturing, cashmere, leather, and furniture, as well as demands for design innovation and procurement in various industrial sectors [2] - The event served as a bridge for Hebei enterprises to connect with international resources, promoting the internationalization of Hebei's design innovation [2] Group 3: Market Trends - The rise of the Z generation, self-indulgence economy, and IP economy are driving rapid growth in the trendy toy market, with a mature supply chain in China making it an opportune time for trendy toys to enter overseas markets [3] - The emphasis on storytelling in product design is crucial, as consumers are increasingly interested in the narratives behind products rather than just their physical attributes [3] Group 4: Environmental and Economic Impact - The "Reed Building System" from Xiong'an exemplifies high value and environmental benefits, with reed materials exported to 17 countries, showcasing a price increase of 20 times for mid-range products [3] - The role of design is evolving from merely beautifying products to becoming a core driver of industrial upgrades, as emphasized by the director of the Hebei Future Industrial Design Innovation Center [3]