Group 1 - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices rebounded last week due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term prices expected to remain relatively strong [1][2] - The current iron ore market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - Global iron ore shipments have been on the rise since late November, reaching a year-to-date high in the week of December 12, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] Group 2 - The rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by expectations of macroeconomic policies, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and investment [2] - In 2026, China's crude steel demand is expected to decline by 1.5%, with a significant drop in demand from the real estate sector, while non-real estate steel consumption may also decrease [3] - Global iron ore supply is projected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with major contributions from various mining companies [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance indicates a reduction of about 27 million tons in China's iron ore demand in 2026, leading to a global oversupply of approximately 60 million tons [4] - Port prices for iron ore may test the $85 per ton mark as the supply exceeds demand further [4]

Core Viewpoint - Champion Iron is initiating a cash tender offer to acquire Rana Gruber, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market position and expand its operations in the iron ore sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The conference call is led by Michael Marcotte, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development & Capital Markets, highlighting the excitement surrounding the acquisition opportunity [2]. - Key executives participating in the call include Michael O'Keeffe (Executive Chairman), David Cataford (CEO), Alexandre Belleau (COO), and Gunnar Moe (CEO of Rana Gruber), showcasing a strong leadership team [3]. Group 2: Presentation Details - The presentation related to the acquisition is available on Champion Iron's website, indicating transparency and accessibility of information for stakeholders [2]. - The call includes forward-looking statements, suggesting that the company is setting expectations for future performance and strategic direction [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Supply - Static calculations show that from January to November 2025, China's iron ore imports first decreased and then increased, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76 million tons (1.5%) to 1.14 billion tons, and the annual total may exceed 1.249 billion tons. The new production capacities of mines in Australia and Brazil will be reflected in the fourth-quarter shipments, and imports are expected to continue a slight increase of 1.1% in 2026 [7][125]. - In 2025, China's cumulative iron ore output is expected to reach 295 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.71%. The output rebounded in the fourth quarter as the pressure on safety and environmental protection eased. The output of domestic iron concentrate is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year in 2026 [7][125]. - The pricing benchmark of iron ore will decrease from 62% iron grade to 61%, and the pricing system may be adjusted [7][125]. - In 2026, the total supply will increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 1.544 billion tons [7][125]. Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector slowed down, infrastructure investment showed positive year-on-year growth, and the manufacturing industry continued to improve. The annual iron ore demand was calculated to be 1.498 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.97 million tons (+4.23%). The annual iron ore demand in 2026 is expected to remain stable with little change [7][125]. - Overseas: In 2026, the pig iron output in major overseas iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while the steel demand in India and the United States will continue to be strong [7][125]. Inventory - As of early December 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 154 million tons. The production capacity of mines increased slowly in the early stage of 2025 and started to expand in the fourth quarter. However, the demand showed strong resilience, and hot metal production was "not weak in the off - season". With the continued release of iron ore production capacity in 2026, static calculations suggest that the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser, and there is a high possibility of continued inventory accumulation in 2026. However, short - term supply - demand tightness caused by meteorological and other factors may still occur [7][125]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In January, affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil, shipments decreased sharply, and hot metal production stopped falling and rebounded earlier than expected. In early March, after the cyclone in Australia, shipments quickly recovered, but the upward momentum of hot metal was insufficient. With the seasonal recovery of shipments from Australia and Brazil, the resumption of domestic mines increasing supply, and the arrival of the downstream off - season, hot metal production reached its peak and gradually declined. Repeated adjustments of tariff policies caused disturbances that gradually weakened. The pre - festival restocking expectations of steel supported the rebound of iron ore prices. Hot metal production declined significantly, steel product profits continued to weaken, and port inventories increased. After a brief recovery, hot metal production stabilized, and the downstream winter restocking demand was released. After the quarterly shipment rush, the supply from international mines decreased rapidly, the output of domestic mines decreased significantly due to environmental protection, hot metal production continued to rise, and the output of the downstream five major steel products continued to increase. The shipments of international mines recovered, the output of domestic mines increased, but demand showed signs of decline, the off - season arrived, and hot metal production declined. Under the influence of major events, environmental protection restrictions were strict, downstream profits declined, demand weakened, and iron ore prices fluctuated. Vale's terminal maintenance unexpectedly affected shipments, and the US interest rate hikes boosted the macro - optimistic sentiment [5]. Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: In 2025, the global mainstream iron ore shipment volume first decreased and then increased, with a slight year - on - year increase. As of December 12, 2025, the global average daily shipment volume was 4.47 million tons per day, a 2.76% increase compared to 4.35 million tons per day in the previous year. From January to September 2025, the global iron ore trade volume decreased by 2.38%, and China's iron ore imports from the world increased by 0.01% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, the new iron ore production capacity was released, and from January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from the world increased by 0.75% year - on - year [12]. - **China's Imports from Australia and Brazil**: From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.54%, showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially a significant improvement since September. China's imports of iron ore from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased by 2.66%, also showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially since September [16]. - **Australia**: From January to September 2025, Australia's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia increased by 1.55% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Xipo (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and Onslow projects. If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment [21]. - **Brazil**: From January to September 2025, Brazil's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year increase of 4.48%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Brazil increased by 1.15% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increment in Brazil in 2025 comes from Vale's S11D mining area expansion project (20 million tons). According to the capacity release plan, Brazil's iron ore exports may continue to grow in 2026 [26]. - **Major Mining Companies' Production and Shipment Targets**: - Rio Tinto: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target will be increased by 20 - 28 million tons. From January to September 2025, the equity ore output was 210.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68%. The SP10 shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, squeezing part of the PB share. The Xipo mining area was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, to maintain the production of PB powder, which is the main source of production increment for Rio Tinto in 2025 [27][32]. - BHP: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 2 million tons. From January to September 2025, BHP's output was 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. In fiscal year 2025 (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity output was 29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%, reaching a record high. The South Slope mine was the main source of increment, with its capacity fully reaching 80 million tons per year in fiscal year 2025, and together with the C mining area, it forms the world's largest iron ore hub (total capacity of 145 million tons per year). Its high - grade ore (average iron grade of 62%) enhances BHP's product portfolio premium ability [33][38]. - FMG: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 5 million tons. From January to September 2025, FMG's output was 179.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. In 2025, the shipments of Super Special Powder were at a high level, while the shipments of Mixed Powder were relatively weak. FMG has announced that the iron ore shipment target for fiscal year 2026 is set at 195 - 205 million tons, with both the upper and lower limits of the range increased by 5 million tons compared to the previous fiscal year. Among them, the shipment target for the Iron Bridge project is 10 - 12 million tons [40][44]. - Vale: In 2026, the target output will be increased by 10 million tons. From January to September 2025, Vale's iron ore output was 246 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%. The S11D production area is part of the Serra Sul mining complex in Vale's northern system. Vale proposed the Serra Sul 120Mtpy capacity growth project in August 2020, aiming to increase the annual production capacity of S11D by 20 million tons to 120 million tons, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. The Serra Norte comprehensive mining area also belongs to the northern system, with an annual production capacity of 140 million tons. Vale is investing in the N3 mine maintenance project in this area, with a planned total investment of 84 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026. The Capanema Maximization project is a capacity growth plan proposed by Vale for its southeastern system, aiming to increase the combined output of the Fábrica Nova and Capanema mines, providing greater operational flexibility for the Mariana mining complex, with a planned investment of about 910 million US dollars. The Vargem Grande (VGR) complex is located in the southern system. Vale is carrying out the VGR 1 project in this area to maintain the operation of existing projects and promote the recovery of the mining area's production capacity. The VGR 1 project consists of three simultaneous sub - projects, with a total investment of 67 million US dollars. The increments from the S11D, Serra Norte, Vargem Grande, and Capanema mining areas may bring about 60 million tons of iron ore output increment for Vale in the next three years. It is expected that Vale's iron ore output will recover to the range of 340 - 360 million tons in 2026 [45][48]. - **Global Iron Ore Production Capacity Increment**: In 2026, the global iron ore production capacity is expected to increase by nearly 47 million tons, with the commissioning progress of Simandou attracting the most attention. There are expectations of increments in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions in 2026 [50]. - **China's Domestic Supply**: In 2025, the iron concentrate output of 332 domestic mining enterprises is expected to reach 294.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71%, mainly affected by environmental protection and safety inspections. In 2026, with the commissioning of new domestic production capacities and policy support, the output of finished ore (iron concentrate) is expected to increase slightly, with the increment mainly coming from the development of strategic resources in western regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. From January to October 2025, China's total iron ore supply was about 1.276 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.95 million tons (+0.39%). In 2026, with the successive commissioning of new production capacities in Simandou and Brazilian iron ore projects, the total supply may increase by 1.3% [74]. Demand - **Overseas Demand**: In 2025, the overseas pig iron output generally declined, with India continuing to maintain rapid growth. From January to October 2025, the overseas pig iron output was 335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%. Among the major overseas regions, India's pig iron output continued to maintain a high growth rate of +6.38%, while the pig iron output of other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. Among net - importing countries, the EU's pig iron output was 60.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.327 million tons (-5.5%); the pig iron outputs of Japan and South Korea were 48.799 million tons and 36.168 million tons respectively, with year - on - year declines of -4.01% and -1.88% respectively. Japan's pig iron output has shown a continuous downward trend in recent years. Under the interest - rate hike cycle, its domestic economy is weak, orders from the automobile and machinery industries have decreased, and steel demand has decreased by 10%. Due to inflation pressure, Japan may raise interest rates again at the end of 2025, which will have a negative impact on steel demand. South Korea's construction industry is in a slump, and the exports of traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding are blocked. The steel industry demand in 2026 may continue to be weak. Europe's pig iron output continues to decline. High - interest - rate policies have restricted investment and consumption, and the demand for construction, durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances is weak. The euro - zone economy has maintained a low - growth state for a long time, suppressing steel demand [80][81][87]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, the pig iron output is expected to be high at first and then stable, with a year - on - year increase of more than 4.2%. From January to October 2025, the estimated pig iron output was 768 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Since June, hot metal production reached its peak and slowly declined, and steel mill profits gradually decreased. However, since the downstream inventory has always been maintained at a low level, the inventory - accumulation effect has not yet appeared. The estimated pig iron output in 2025 is 923 million tons, with an expected year - on - year increase of 4.2%. In 2026, it is expected that the real estate demand will still be sluggish, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will slow down, and the manufacturing industry will have a fair growth rate [94][99][100]. Inventory - **Overall Inventory Trend**: In 2025, iron ore shipments first decreased and then increased, while demand first increased and then decreased. In 2026, inventory may continue to increase. From January to August 2025, under the situation of a decline in overseas shipments and higher - than - expected demand, the iron ore port inventory maintained a de - stocking trend. Since September, especially after October, imports increased rapidly while downstream demand weakened, and the inventory increased rapidly. As of the latest data in early December 2025, the iron ore inventory across the entire industrial chain increased by about 11.85 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 292 million tons. Looking forward to 2026, with the release of new production capacity and the difficulty of demand growth, the iron ore inventory may continue to accumulate [111]. - **Inventory Variety Differentiation**: The inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Australian ore has recently declined from a high level. Against the background of the slow decline of the total inventory in 15 major ports, the inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Brazilian ore is relatively stable, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently started to rise. The inventory of low - grade ore declined significantly from September to October and has slightly rebounded recently. The overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB powder has declined significantly from the high level in September [112][114]. Cost and Price - The current global cash cost of 90% of iron ore is at the level of about $90 per ton. Without obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and China, the iron ore supply - demand balance may be achieved through price cuts and reduced shipments, and the cost support around $85 is relatively strong [117][118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly, with overall prices remaining range - bound. Future trading focuses on steel mills' restocking expectations and the downward space of hot metal production. The iron ore supply will have limited marginal increase, the hot metal production is at a historically low level, and the downward space is relatively limited. Iron ore will continue to accumulate inventory, but the marginal accumulation space will decrease. The future key factors are BHP negotiation, hot metal trend, and steel mills' restocking expectations. It is expected that the overall situation will remain range - bound, with the range reference of 730 - 820. For the 05 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range, and short at around 800 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Spot Price - The spot prices of various types of iron ore powder increased this week. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 7 yuan/ton to 872 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines increased by 13 yuan/ton to 794 yuan/ton [7]. Variety Basis - The basis of the 05 contract for different types of iron ore powder is presented, such as the basis of Carajás fines, PB fines, and Super Special fines [16][18][21]. Spot and Forward Transactions - The MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions are presented, along with the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines [31][33][35]. Inter - monthly Spread - The spread data between different iron ore contracts (such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209) are presented, as well as the position data of the 09 and 05 contracts [38][39][41]. Supply Global Shipment - This period's global iron ore shipment continued to increase, with the increment concentrated in Australia and Brazil. The total shipment of Australia and Brazil was 2,965.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 tons. Vale had the most significant growth [3]. Four Major Mines Shipment - The shipment data of Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, and FMG to China are presented. For example, Vale's shipment increased by 204 tons week - on - week to 682 tons [56]. Australia and Brazil Freight - The freight data from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao are presented. For example, the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 10.4 dollars/ton [64]. Arrival Volume - The arrival volume of 45 ports and 47 ports increased this week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2,723 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243 tons [71]. Domestic Iron Ore Import - From January to October 2025, the total national iron ore import was 103,003 tons, a year - on - year increase of 804 tons. The import of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import of non - mainstream ore decreased [84]. Domestic Concentrate Production and Sales - The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased this week. The production of 186 mining enterprises was 44.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons [95]. Demand Steel Enterprise Production Indicators - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 percentage points [110]. Furnace Charge Ratio - The sinter ore ratio in the furnace was 73.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and the pellet ore ratio was 15.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points [127]. Global Steel and Pig Iron Production - The production data of global, Chinese, and other countries' steel and pig iron are presented, including India, Russia, Turkey, etc. The production and year - on - year changes are shown in the corresponding charts [128][131][133]. Inventory Port Inventory - As of December 19th, the inventory of 45 ports was 15,512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons. The inventory of 45 ports and 47 ports and the inventory by cargo ownership are presented [3][157][160]. Steel Mill Inventory - The import ore inventory of steel mills decreased by 110.25 tons to 8,723.95 tons, and there was no obvious restocking behavior [3][165][166].

铁矿周报 铁矿震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2025 年 12 月 22 日 市场情绪扰动 ⚫ 需求端：钢厂检修规模扩大，铁水产量延续回落态 势，目前铁水已经低于去年水平。上周247家钢厂高 炉开工率78.47%，环比上周减少0.16个百分点，同比 去年减少1.16个百分点，日均铁水产量 226.55万 吨，环比上周减少2.65万吨，同比去年减少2.86万 吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量与发运环比增加，均处 于历史同期高位水平，港口库存高位运行，供应压力 不减。上周全球铁矿石发运总3592.5万吨，环比增加 224.0万吨。库存方面，全国47个港口进口铁矿库存 16225.53万吨，环比增加114.06万吨；日均疏港量 328.23万吨，降5.94万吨。 ⚫ 总体上，供应端，上周海外铁矿到港量与发运环比增 加，均处于历史同期高位水平，港口库存高位运行， 供应压力不减。需求端，钢厂检修规模扩大，铁水产 量延续回落态势，目前铁 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The core view is that the macro - risk appetite is being repaired again, and iron ore prices are strengthening in the short - term. Fundamentally, there has been no significant change in the supply - demand balance of iron ore, but the previously mentioned structural supply issues and macro factors still support its high valuation. The price's return to the fundamentals awaits the fading of macro - impacts [3][5]. 3. Summary by Sections Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: Global iron ore shipments have increased again, with Brazil contributing significantly to the growth. The cumulative global shipments from the beginning of the year to now reached 156,766.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. Australian shipments were 89,537.8 million tons, up 0.3% year - on - year, and Brazilian shipments were 38,237.2 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: The overall performance of non - mainstream mines is neutral [21]. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate in North China has declined recently [29]. Demand - **Downstream Demand**: Demand continues the seasonal downward trend. The daily average of 45 - port imported ore evacuation volume and the actual output of five major steel products are showing a downward trend [32][33]. - **Scrap Steel Substitution**: The price of scrap steel has rebounded recently, and the low - level rebound of the scrap - iron price difference continues [35]. Inventory - Steel mills' inventory is actively being depleted. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports is 15,512.6 million tons [4][39]. Price Performance - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 780.00 yuan/ton, with a position of 535,000 hands, a week - on - week increase of 69,400 hands. The average daily trading volume was 269,000 hands, a week - on - week decrease of 9,600 hands [7]. - **Spot Price**: The price of medium - grade iron ore has increased relatively more. For example, the price of BRBF (62.5%) increased from 817 yuan/ton last week to 831 yuan/ton this week [12]. Spread - **Spot Category Spread**: The price of medium - grade PB is relatively strong, and the spread between domestic iron concentrate and PB has been continuously declining [45]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread shows signs of further convergence, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is relatively stable [48]. - **Basis**: The basis has weakened, approaching last year's level [51].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with stable supply but declining domestic demand, leading to limited potential for price increases in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Supply - The total inventory of imported iron ore at national steel mills is 87.24 million tons, a decrease of 1.10 million tons month-on-month [1]. - The daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills is 2.81 million tons, down by 27,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - The inventory-to-consumption ratio stands at 31.09 days, a slight decrease of 0.09 days [1]. - Port inventory of iron ore reached 162.26 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week-on-week, marking a 0.71% rise [1]. - Over the past month, port inventory has increased by 4.91 million tons, a rise of 3.12% [1]. Group 2: Company Developments - Genmin Limited has successfully completed a directed share placement raising AUD 25.7 million (approximately USD 17 million) to support the development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon [1]. - The Baniaka project has confirmed ore resources of approximately 759 million tons, with an initial planned capacity of 5 million tons per year, expected to increase to at least 10 million tons per year, aiming for commercial production by the end of 2026 [1]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook - According to Galaxy Futures, global iron ore shipments have continued to increase steadily since December, with Australian shipments remaining stable year-on-year and Brazilian shipments contributing slight increases [2]. - Domestic steel demand has shown a rapid decline since the third quarter, with no significant improvement expected in the near term, particularly in the real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors [2]. - One德期货 notes that while the black market maintains an upward trend, the momentum in futures is slowing down, indicating a potential for price declines despite strong sentiment in iron ore buying [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, with increased supply but supported by exports, the fundamentals of iron ore may weaken marginally, yet there could be periods of structural shortages, and demand at the lower end is supported. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. It is expected that the price trend will not be significant, maintaining a wide - ranging oscillatory pattern. The price range for the fourth quarter is Platts 62: [90, 115], and the iron ore index is [700, 900]. The recommended industrial risk management strategy is range - bound operation [4][5][117] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Ore Price Review in 2025 - **January 15 - February 21**: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported price increases. The black market followed the stock market, with positive domestic and overseas macro - sentiments. Three hurricanes affected Western Australia ports, reducing global shipments, and the spot market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the rapid resumption of coking coal production and inventory accumulation also supported iron ore prices [6] - **February 22 - April 8**: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipping resumed, and the black market diverged from the stock market. Tariff policies and the expectation of crude steel reduction led to a downward trend in prices [7] - **April 9 - June 18**: A temporary balance was reached after risk release. After the tariff shock in early April, the iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand remained strong, with increasing hot metal production and decreasing port inventory. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but the subsequent weakening of export demand and the cooling of the US economy led to a period of low - volatility oscillation [8] - **June 19 - September 22**: Iron ore prices bottomed out in late June and then rose steadily. The anti - involution trading in the commodity market drove up the price of iron ore through the increase in steel prices and the improvement of steel mill profits. The falsification of the previous pessimistic expectations also contributed to the price rebound [9] - **September 23 - Present**: Overall demand weakened, but the supply of coking coal and the structural shortage of iron ore supported prices, resulting in a wide - ranging price oscillation. The continuous high hot metal production led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation of steel products, and the decline in steel mill profits increased the pressure of negative feedback production cuts. However, the decline in coking coal prices and the structural shortage of medium - grade ore supported the price of iron ore [11] 2. Supply - **2025 Supply Situation**: The global iron ore supply in 2025 was tight at first and then loose. As of early December 2025, the global shipment was about 1.46 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The supply in China was generally balanced, with a 0.7% year - on - year increase in imports from January to October and a 1.35% year - on - year decrease in domestic iron concentrate production. The main suppliers, Australia and Brazil, faced production and shipping difficulties due to natural disasters [14][21] - **Key Suppliers' Situations**: - **Australia**: In early 2025, the Pilbara region in Western Australia was hit by severe hurricanes, causing production stoppages, port closures, and transportation disruptions. In February, Cyclone "Zelia" forced Port Hedland to close for 3 days, and Rio Tinto's first - quarter shipments decreased by 9.35% year - on - year [23] - **Brazil**: In early 2025, heavy rainfall and floods in the northern mining areas affected mining and transportation. The export revenue of iron ore to China in the first quarter decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the shipment volume decreased by 5% - 8% [23] - **India**: It is shifting from a net exporter to a net importer. In 2025, its imports increased significantly, and exports decreased sharply. The government's policy to support the domestic steel industry and the expansion of the steel industry led to an increase in demand for iron ore [26] - **Russia**: In 2025, China's imports from Russia increased by 42.23% year - on - year. The decline in Russia's domestic steel industry demand and the optimization of the Sino - Russian railway logistics system contributed to this increase [30] - **Mongolia**: In the first 10 months of 2024, its exports to China increased by 21.84% year - on - year, mainly due to the improvement of port clearance efficiency and the construction of cross - border railway networks [31] - **Four Major Mines**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of the world's four major mines increased year - on - year, but there were internal differences. Vale and FMG had obvious production increases, while BHP and Rio Tinto had some production declines or challenges. The S11D project of Vale and the Western Range project of Rio Tinto are important production - increasing projects [38][39] - **Domestic Mines**: The cumulative production of domestic iron concentrate was about 215 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35%, mainly due to safety inspections and rainfall in the north. Currently, domestic mines are in the process of resuming production [64] - **2026 Supply Outlook**: It is expected that the iron ore supply in 2026 will increase steadily, with the increment mainly coming from Simandou and Brazil. With high prices supporting shipments and new capacity coming online, shipments are expected to increase by 2% year - on - year, equivalent to about 30 million tons of iron concentrate [68] 3. Demand - **Overall Demand Outlook in 2026**: The demand pattern of the black market has shifted from domestic - driven to external - driven. In 2026, the "weak domestic and strong overseas" structure is expected to continue. Domestic infrastructure and real estate demand will be weak, while the export chain will be the main support for black metal demand. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts may stimulate overseas manufacturing demand, which is beneficial for China's steel exports [69][70] - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: The real estate industry is still in a bottom - grinding stage, and sales are expected to continue to decline in 2026. Infrastructure investment has also shown signs of weakening. However, the new construction area of real estate may improve marginally in 2026, which may reduce the drag on rebar demand [76][77] - **Hot Metal Production**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 2.3748 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.43%. Currently, steel mill profits have declined, but with the concession of coking coal prices, there is still some production profit. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel industry has been alleviated, and hot metal production has decreased [83] - **Steel Mill Supply Structure and Downstream Demand**: In 2025, downstream steel mill demand was supported by exports. The demand for building materials decreased, while the demand for plate steel maintained positive growth, but the growth rate slowed down. Steel mills adjusted their supply structure through production transfer [86][87] - **Export Support**: Overseas exports are still an important support for steel demand. In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of steel exports will remain positive, but the decline may narrow further [95] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Due to the impact of hurricanes and high hot metal production in the first three quarters of 2025, port inventory decreased marginally. Currently, shipments have recovered, and port inventory may start to accumulate again, which will suppress the upward space of iron ore prices. There is also a structural shortage of iron ore, especially for the medium - grade ore required by steel mills [98] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with a relatively high proportion of trading ore. The global iron ore floating inventory is currently high, and the arrival rhythm of iron ore is expected to accelerate. The shipping cost of iron ore has increased, and its weight in the iron ore price has also increased [100][103] 5. Valuation - **Term Structure**: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of the far - month contracts has narrowed. In 2026, attention can be paid to the opportunities of structural shortages between ore powders and months for arbitrage trading [107] - **Iron - Scrap Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has significantly improved in the past six months. In 2026, attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore [110] - **Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect**: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore was significant. In 2026, this effect is expected to continue under the background of low - profit operation of steel mills [112][113] - **Volatility**: In 2025, the implied volatility of iron ore options was generally decreasing. It is expected that the volatility will remain at a low level, but attention should be paid to potential volatility increases due to sudden macro - events [115]

来源：不止是钢货 Mysteel解读：2026年西芒杜铁矿项目供给测算 我的钢铁网12月10日 代友招聘：某证券公司研究所招聘年轻的有色金属研究员，待遇有市场竞争力，95后为佳、要求有在金 银、储能、磁材或者其他有色品种等其中的一个产业链有相关行业经验（包括实业、协会、资讯网 站）、写报告速度快、勤奋、细致、抗压能力强，欢迎投递简历、代表作至caun307@163.com，来信必 复。 核心观点：根据现有公开数据测算，西芒杜项目铁矿石年化产能已超过4000万吨，但由于项目基础设施 配套滞后，全线铁路运输仅能支撑两列矿列周转以及港口运用交驳作业效率低下等原因，导致2026年实 际项目供给量远低于产能释放量。随着后续西芒杜项目的逐步提产，西芒杜项目产量或于2026年底至 2028年初进入提产周期，最快或于2028-2029年后达产。若按当前进度推进，整体2026年项目供给量或 低于预期2000万水平。 一．2026年西芒杜项目供给测算 西芒杜项目的满产产能约为1.2亿吨，力拓表示项目完全达产时间约为30-36个月。当前项目处于投产初 期，产量供给增长较为缓慢。从11月11日正式投产至12月3日，历时22天第一船铁 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 利好预期发酵，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价触底回升，录得 0.97%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹供应降至低位，给予钢价支撑，而需求季节性走弱，基本面并无实 质性改善，钢价继续承压，相对利好的是政策预期与估值偏低，后续走 势维持低位震荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.58%日涨幅，量增 ...