Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.48%, showing increased volume and decreased positions. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, with the fundamentals seasonally weakening. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.52%, also showing increased volume and decreased positions. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, improving the supply - demand pattern and supporting prices. However, the demand's resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is expected to be weak. Its subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a daily decline of 0.57%, showing decreased volume and positions. Currently, positive factors have supported the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for ore is weakening while supply remains high, with the fundamentals continuously weakening and the upward driving force being weak. Under the game of multiple and short - selling factors, the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to post - holiday steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Starting from January 1, 2026, personal consumers will be subsidized for purchasing 6 categories of home appliances and 4 categories of digital and smart products. The subsidy standard is 15% of the final sales price after deductions, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per home appliance and 500 yuan per digital or smart product [7]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association preliminarily estimates that in 2026, over 12 million passenger cars are expected to enjoy subsidies, driving the consumption of nearly 1.5 million new cars [8]. - In December 2025, 9 iron ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,170 yuan, and the national average is 3,326 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,280 yuan, Tianjin is 3,180 yuan, and the national average is 3,291 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price is 2,940 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price is 2,080 yuan [10]. - 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports: The price is 797 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder: The price is 783 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,122 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%, the highest price is 3,142 yuan, the lowest is 3,114 yuan, the trading volume is 651,840, and the open interest is 1,505,284 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,270 yuan, with a decline of 0.52%, the highest price is 3,292 yuan, the lowest is 3,262 yuan, the trading volume is 364,579, and the open interest is 1,267,557 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 789.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.57%, the highest price is 795.5 yuan, the lowest is 784.5 yuan, the trading volume is 245,856, and the open interest is 593,347 [14]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore in 45 ports), and steel mill production situations (such as blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) from 2021 - 2025 [16][21][29] 后市研判 (Future Outlook) - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons, and demand is weak. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, with the inventory decline expanding. The weekly output increased by 1.63 tons, and demand is okay but its resilience is questionable. The upward driving force is expected to be weak, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory, with attention on steel mill production [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is continuously weakening, with port inventories rising. Supply remains high, and demand is weakening. The ore price will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to post - holiday steel mill restocking [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's significant progress in gaining pricing power over iron ore, transitioning from a passive role to an active one in the global market, particularly by the end of 2025 [3][11][23]. Group 1: Historical Context - Since the establishment of the global iron ore long-term contract mechanism in 1981, China, as the largest consumer, has been dominated by Western countries like the US and Australia in pricing power, leading to substantial profit losses [1][3]. - The pricing system centered around the US S&P iron ore index has constrained Chinese enterprises for over four decades, limiting their negotiation power [5][7]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In December 2025, major mining companies, including Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, announced a shift from the US S&P index to pricing standards more aligned with China's market realities, marking a significant change in the pricing dynamics [11][13]. - This shift is a result of long-term negotiations with China's Mineral Resources Group, which has consolidated purchasing power, allowing China to negotiate on equal footing with global mining giants [9][11]. Group 3: Impact of Renminbi Internationalization - The move towards Renminbi (RMB) settlement for iron ore trade, initiated by BHP in October 2025, has opened avenues for reducing reliance on the US dollar, enhancing China's bargaining position [17][19]. - The transition to RMB settlement not only mitigates exchange rate risks for Chinese companies but also creates a closed-loop system for raw material imports and finished product exports, lowering transaction costs [19][21]. Group 4: Significance of Pricing Index Change - The adoption of local pricing indices, such as the "My Steel" index, reflects a shift in the international mining community's recognition of China's market influence, allowing China to move from being a price taker to a price maker [21][23]. - This change in pricing benchmarks is seen as a milestone, as it aligns more closely with China's actual supply and demand, benefiting the local steel industry [21][23].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 52 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2727.80 万吨，环比降 62.40 万吨，延续回落但仍处年内高位；其中巴西矿到 货降 65.80 万吨，澳矿则是微增 20.30 万吨，非澳巴矿到货环比降 16.90 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运大幅增加，全球矿石发运总量为 3677.10 万吨，环比增 212.58 万吨，再创年内单周 新高。增量主要源于主流矿商发运回升，四大矿商合计增 223.94 万吨；细分地区看澳矿、巴西矿分别增 163.08、81.77 万吨，非澳巴矿则是环比降 32.27 万吨，均位于年内高位。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量稳中有升，海外矿石供应相对积极。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of global iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week but remained at a high level. The end - of - year rush by the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly but is at a high level in the same period of history. Based on the shipments, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. [2] - The daily average hot metal output remained flat compared with last week, at a historically low level. A small number of steel mills resumed production, while some were still under maintenance, mostly for annual overhauls. The profitability of steel mills has improved, but due to the off - season and a large number of overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. [2] - This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level and the low off - season port clearance volume at the end of the year, iron ore will continue to accumulate, but the subsequent marginal accumulation space will be smaller than before. [2] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is unlikely to lead to a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory on the downside. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract in a short - term range, with the range referring to 760 - 810. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of various iron ore powders decreased compared with last week. For example, the price of Carajás fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 869 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 791 yuan/ton. The Platts Fe62% index decreased by 0.85 dollars/ton to 107.30 dollars/ton. [5] - **Variety Basis**: The report presents the 05 - contract basis data of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, Jinbuba fines, and Super Special fines over the years. [10][12][14] - **Spread between Varieties**: The report shows the spread data between different iron ore varieties such as PB fines - Jinbuba fines, PB fines - Super Special fines, and Carajás fines - PB fines over the years. [18][20][23] - **Spot and Forward Transactions**: The report provides the MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions, as well as the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines. [25][29][31] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The report shows the spread data between different contracts such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209, and I05 - 09 over the years. [33][34][39] - **Contract Positions**: The report presents the position data of the iron ore 09 - contract and 05 - contract over the years. [35][37] 3.2 Supply - **Global Shipments**: This week, the global iron ore shipments decreased by 128 tons to 3464.5 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 tons to 2814.7 tons. Among them, Australian shipments decreased by 102 tons to 1950.6 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 48.8 tons to 864.1 tons. [2] - **Four Major Mines' Shipments**: The shipments of the four major mines to China this week are as follows: Rio Tinto 601 tons (down 8 tons from last week), BHP 523 tons (up 51 tons from last week), Vale 615 tons (down 68 tons from last week), and FMG 276 tons (down 63 tons from last week). [50] - **Freight Rates**: The freight rates from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao decreased compared with last week. For example, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 8.9 dollars/ton. [58] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume at 45 ports this week was 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons compared with last week. The arrival volume at 47 ports was 2790 tons, a decrease of 138 tons compared with last week. [2][65] - **Import Volume**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative national iron ore import volume was 114057 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1680 tons and a year - on - year increase rate of 1%. The import volume of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import volume of non - mainstream ore decreased. [77] - **Domestic Iron Concentrate Production**: The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased compared with last week. For example, the iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises decreased by 1.4 tons to 43.4 tons. [87] 3.3 Demand - **Steel Mill Indicators**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 226.58 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared with last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points. The blast furnace start - up rate was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points. [2][101] - **Port Clearance and Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports and the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills are presented in the report. [110][111] - **Sintering Proportion**: The sintering ore charging ratio of 114 steel enterprises was 73.82%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points compared with last week. The charging ratios of lump ore and pellet ore decreased. [118] - **Global Steel Production**: The report shows the production data of global, Indian, Russian, American, Turkish, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean crude steel and the production data of global, Chinese, Indian, EU27, Japanese, and Russian pig iron over the years. [119][124][128] 3.4 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of December 25, the inventory at 45 ports was 15858.66 tons, an increase of 346.03 tons compared with last week. The report also shows the inventory data of 45 ports + 247 steel mills + berthing vessels, 45 - port inventory by cargo rights, 45 - port berthing days, and 47 - port inventory. [2][145][148] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 136.24 tons to 8860.19 tons. The report also shows the inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio data of 247 steel mills. [2][155] - **15 - Port Inventory by Variety**: The report presents the inventory data of 15 ports by variety. [156]

期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应低位企稳，而需求同样弱稳，淡季基本面未见好转，钢价仍易 承压，相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jinling Mining has seen a continuous increase in its stock price, rising for six consecutive days with a total increase of 7.57% during this period, currently priced at 9.38 yuan per share and a market capitalization of 5.584 billion yuan [1] - Jinling Mining's main business involves iron ore mining, with revenue composition as follows: iron concentrate 76.99%, pellets 9.03%, other (supplement) 8.46%, copper concentrate 5.10%, and mechanical processing 0.41% [1] - The company is located in Zibo City, Shandong Province, and was established on September 28, 1996, with its listing date on November 28, 1996 [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Jinling Mining, Huaxia Fund has a fund, Huaxia Excellent Growth Mixed A (024928), which entered the top ten in the third quarter, holding 3.3261 million shares, accounting for 0.56% of circulating shares [2] - During the six-day increase, the floating profit for Huaxia Excellent Growth Mixed A is approximately 219.52 thousand yuan, with a daily floating profit of about 3.33 thousand yuan [2] Group 3 - Huaxia Excellent Growth Mixed A (024928) was established on August 12, 2025, with a latest scale of 956 million yuan and a return of 14.23% since inception [3] - The fund manager, Zhong Shuai, has been in position for 5 years and 151 days, with the total asset scale of the fund currently at 13.26 billion yuan, achieving a best return of 180.28% and a worst return of -1.5% during his tenure [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for iron ore is "Oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In 2026, the total pressure on iron ore will become more obvious, but with major mines reducing product grades, mainstream resources may still face structural shortages. Without a strong negative demand resonance, the supply - side pressure alone is unlikely to drive the price down independently. The iron ore price is expected to be influenced by both total pressure and structural support, with the lower support likely to remain the same as in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate between $90 - $110 in 2026, with supply mismatches to be watched in the first half and overseas demand changes in the second half [4][77] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 2025 Review - In 2025, the black demand was not bad, with the growth rate of 247 - caliber hot metal and crude steel fitting output exceeding 2%. In the first half, due to concerns about the ebb of export demand, the whole industry chain actively reduced inventory, and the iron ore price fell with the port inventory. The Platts Index dropped from $109 at the beginning of the year to $95 at the end of June. After July - August, driven by policies and re - evaluation of actual demand, the price rebounded slightly in the second half. From September - October, affected by port inventory structure and negotiation progress, the inventory and price deviated. The overseas mines' shipments recovered rapidly in the second half, and the domestic port inventory increased by 10 million tons per month from November - December, suppressing the overall price [12] Iron Ore Supply - **2025 Supply**: The global seaborne iron ore supply increased by about 37 million tons in 2025. The shipment was low in the first half due to hurricane disruptions and rebounded rapidly in the middle of the year as major mines "reduced product grades to maintain quantity". The shipping - caliber global iron ore shipments from January - November increased by about 38 million tons, and the shipments to China increased by about 16 million tons [14] - **Regional Supply in 2025**: From January - November, Australia, Brazil, Iran/Oman, and West Africa increased by about 10 million tons, South Africa by about 2 million tons, India decreased by 8 million tons, and other countries such as Russia and Ukraine increased by 4 million tons. Major mines like Rio Tinto, Vale, and FMG reduced product grades. African iron ore in Sierra Leone increased more than expected, and the Onslow project in Australia reached its production capacity in the third quarter [15][24][25] - **Structural Issues in 2025**: Since 2025, structural inventory contradictions have reappeared. The decline in mainstream mine quality and the locking of Jimblebar inventory explain the deviation between high port inventory and firm spot prices since the second half of 2025 [31] - **2026 Supply Forecast**: The global iron ore supply is expected to increase by 51 million tons in 2026. Simandou may contribute an increment of 20 million tons, Onslow will continue to increase production by 10 million tons, Australia is expected to recover and grow by about 10 - 15 million tons, and India's net export volume is expected to continue to decrease by 9 million tons [41] 2026 Crude Steel Demand - In 2026, the crude steel demand is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, with strong resilience but lack of increment. After the export resilience in 2025, the market's demand expectation for 2026 turns cautious, with the mainstream expectation around zero growth. Real estate demand is expected to shrink by 10%, infrastructure demand may increase slightly, direct exports may decline slightly, but indirect exports from the manufacturing industry will offset the decline. External demand may improve moderately under the background of interest rate cuts [3][65] Summary and Outlook - The market's expectation for domestic demand in 2026 turns cautious after the export resilience in 2025. The iron ore supply will increase significantly in 2026, about 51 million tons in total, with about 30 million tons having a high probability of realization. Although there is total pressure on the supply side, mainstream resources may still face structural shortages. The iron ore price is expected to be influenced by both total pressure and structural support, with the lower support likely to remain the same as in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate between $90 - $110 in 2026 [77]

Group 1 - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices rebounded last week due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term prices expected to remain relatively strong [1][2] - The current iron ore market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - Global iron ore shipments have been on the rise since late November, reaching a year-to-date high in the week of December 12, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] Group 2 - The rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by expectations of macroeconomic policies, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and investment [2] - In 2026, China's crude steel demand is expected to decline by 1.5%, with a significant drop in demand from the real estate sector, while non-real estate steel consumption may also decrease [3] - Global iron ore supply is projected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with major contributions from various mining companies [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance indicates a reduction of about 27 million tons in China's iron ore demand in 2026, leading to a global oversupply of approximately 60 million tons [4] - Port prices for iron ore may test the $85 per ton mark as the supply exceeds demand further [4]

Core Viewpoint - Champion Iron is initiating a cash tender offer to acquire Rana Gruber, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market position and expand its operations in the iron ore sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - The conference call is led by Michael Marcotte, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development & Capital Markets, highlighting the excitement surrounding the acquisition opportunity [2]. - Key executives participating in the call include Michael O'Keeffe (Executive Chairman), David Cataford (CEO), Alexandre Belleau (COO), and Gunnar Moe (CEO of Rana Gruber), showcasing a strong leadership team [3]. Group 2: Presentation Details - The presentation related to the acquisition is available on Champion Iron's website, indicating transparency and accessibility of information for stakeholders [2]. - The call includes forward-looking statements, suggesting that the company is setting expectations for future performance and strategic direction [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Supply - Static calculations show that from January to November 2025, China's iron ore imports first decreased and then increased, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76 million tons (1.5%) to 1.14 billion tons, and the annual total may exceed 1.249 billion tons. The new production capacities of mines in Australia and Brazil will be reflected in the fourth-quarter shipments, and imports are expected to continue a slight increase of 1.1% in 2026 [7][125]. - In 2025, China's cumulative iron ore output is expected to reach 295 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.71%. The output rebounded in the fourth quarter as the pressure on safety and environmental protection eased. The output of domestic iron concentrate is expected to increase by 2% year-on-year in 2026 [7][125]. - The pricing benchmark of iron ore will decrease from 62% iron grade to 61%, and the pricing system may be adjusted [7][125]. - In 2026, the total supply will increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 1.544 billion tons [7][125]. Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector slowed down, infrastructure investment showed positive year-on-year growth, and the manufacturing industry continued to improve. The annual iron ore demand was calculated to be 1.498 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.97 million tons (+4.23%). The annual iron ore demand in 2026 is expected to remain stable with little change [7][125]. - Overseas: In 2026, the pig iron output in major overseas iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while the steel demand in India and the United States will continue to be strong [7][125]. Inventory - As of early December 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 154 million tons. The production capacity of mines increased slowly in the early stage of 2025 and started to expand in the fourth quarter. However, the demand showed strong resilience, and hot metal production was "not weak in the off - season". With the continued release of iron ore production capacity in 2026, static calculations suggest that the iron ore supply - demand situation will become looser, and there is a high possibility of continued inventory accumulation in 2026. However, short - term supply - demand tightness caused by meteorological and other factors may still occur [7][125]. 3. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In January, affected by cyclones in Australia and rainfall in Brazil, shipments decreased sharply, and hot metal production stopped falling and rebounded earlier than expected. In early March, after the cyclone in Australia, shipments quickly recovered, but the upward momentum of hot metal was insufficient. With the seasonal recovery of shipments from Australia and Brazil, the resumption of domestic mines increasing supply, and the arrival of the downstream off - season, hot metal production reached its peak and gradually declined. Repeated adjustments of tariff policies caused disturbances that gradually weakened. The pre - festival restocking expectations of steel supported the rebound of iron ore prices. Hot metal production declined significantly, steel product profits continued to weaken, and port inventories increased. After a brief recovery, hot metal production stabilized, and the downstream winter restocking demand was released. After the quarterly shipment rush, the supply from international mines decreased rapidly, the output of domestic mines decreased significantly due to environmental protection, hot metal production continued to rise, and the output of the downstream five major steel products continued to increase. The shipments of international mines recovered, the output of domestic mines increased, but demand showed signs of decline, the off - season arrived, and hot metal production declined. Under the influence of major events, environmental protection restrictions were strict, downstream profits declined, demand weakened, and iron ore prices fluctuated. Vale's terminal maintenance unexpectedly affected shipments, and the US interest rate hikes boosted the macro - optimistic sentiment [5]. Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: In 2025, the global mainstream iron ore shipment volume first decreased and then increased, with a slight year - on - year increase. As of December 12, 2025, the global average daily shipment volume was 4.47 million tons per day, a 2.76% increase compared to 4.35 million tons per day in the previous year. From January to September 2025, the global iron ore trade volume decreased by 2.38%, and China's iron ore imports from the world increased by 0.01% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, the new iron ore production capacity was released, and from January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from the world increased by 0.75% year - on - year [12]. - **China's Imports from Australia and Brazil**: From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.54%, showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially a significant improvement since September. China's imports of iron ore from non - Australia and Brazil regions decreased by 2.66%, also showing a pattern of first decline and then increase, especially since September [16]. - **Australia**: From January to September 2025, Australia's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.01%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Australia increased by 1.55% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Xipo (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and Onslow projects. If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment [21]. - **Brazil**: From January to September 2025, Brazil's iron ore exports showed a pattern of low at first and then high, with a year - on - year increase of 4.48%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of iron ore from Brazil increased by 1.15% year - on - year. According to the capacity expansion plan, the main production capacity increment in Brazil in 2025 comes from Vale's S11D mining area expansion project (20 million tons). According to the capacity release plan, Brazil's iron ore exports may continue to grow in 2026 [26]. - **Major Mining Companies' Production and Shipment Targets**: - Rio Tinto: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target will be increased by 20 - 28 million tons. From January to September 2025, the equity ore output was 210.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68%. The SP10 shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, squeezing part of the PB share. The Xipo mining area was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, to maintain the production of PB powder, which is the main source of production increment for Rio Tinto in 2025 [27][32]. - BHP: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 2 million tons. From January to September 2025, BHP's output was 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. In fiscal year 2025 (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity output was 29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%, reaching a record high. The South Slope mine was the main source of increment, with its capacity fully reaching 80 million tons per year in fiscal year 2025, and together with the C mining area, it forms the world's largest iron ore hub (total capacity of 145 million tons per year). Its high - grade ore (average iron grade of 62%) enhances BHP's product portfolio premium ability [33][38]. - FMG: In fiscal year 2026, the shipment target range will be increased by 5 million tons. From January to September 2025, FMG's output was 179.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. In 2025, the shipments of Super Special Powder were at a high level, while the shipments of Mixed Powder were relatively weak. FMG has announced that the iron ore shipment target for fiscal year 2026 is set at 195 - 205 million tons, with both the upper and lower limits of the range increased by 5 million tons compared to the previous fiscal year. Among them, the shipment target for the Iron Bridge project is 10 - 12 million tons [40][44]. - Vale: In 2026, the target output will be increased by 10 million tons. From January to September 2025, Vale's iron ore output was 246 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%. The S11D production area is part of the Serra Sul mining complex in Vale's northern system. Vale proposed the Serra Sul 120Mtpy capacity growth project in August 2020, aiming to increase the annual production capacity of S11D by 20 million tons to 120 million tons, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. The Serra Norte comprehensive mining area also belongs to the northern system, with an annual production capacity of 140 million tons. Vale is investing in the N3 mine maintenance project in this area, with a planned total investment of 84 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026. The Capanema Maximization project is a capacity growth plan proposed by Vale for its southeastern system, aiming to increase the combined output of the Fábrica Nova and Capanema mines, providing greater operational flexibility for the Mariana mining complex, with a planned investment of about 910 million US dollars. The Vargem Grande (VGR) complex is located in the southern system. Vale is carrying out the VGR 1 project in this area to maintain the operation of existing projects and promote the recovery of the mining area's production capacity. The VGR 1 project consists of three simultaneous sub - projects, with a total investment of 67 million US dollars. The increments from the S11D, Serra Norte, Vargem Grande, and Capanema mining areas may bring about 60 million tons of iron ore output increment for Vale in the next three years. It is expected that Vale's iron ore output will recover to the range of 340 - 360 million tons in 2026 [45][48]. - **Global Iron Ore Production Capacity Increment**: In 2026, the global iron ore production capacity is expected to increase by nearly 47 million tons, with the commissioning progress of Simandou attracting the most attention. There are expectations of increments in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions in 2026 [50]. - **China's Domestic Supply**: In 2025, the iron concentrate output of 332 domestic mining enterprises is expected to reach 294.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71%, mainly affected by environmental protection and safety inspections. In 2026, with the commissioning of new domestic production capacities and policy support, the output of finished ore (iron concentrate) is expected to increase slightly, with the increment mainly coming from the development of strategic resources in western regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. From January to October 2025, China's total iron ore supply was about 1.276 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.95 million tons (+0.39%). In 2026, with the successive commissioning of new production capacities in Simandou and Brazilian iron ore projects, the total supply may increase by 1.3% [74]. Demand - **Overseas Demand**: In 2025, the overseas pig iron output generally declined, with India continuing to maintain rapid growth. From January to October 2025, the overseas pig iron output was 335 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.97%. Among the major overseas regions, India's pig iron output continued to maintain a high growth rate of +6.38%, while the pig iron output of other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. Among net - importing countries, the EU's pig iron output was 60.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.327 million tons (-5.5%); the pig iron outputs of Japan and South Korea were 48.799 million tons and 36.168 million tons respectively, with year - on - year declines of -4.01% and -1.88% respectively. Japan's pig iron output has shown a continuous downward trend in recent years. Under the interest - rate hike cycle, its domestic economy is weak, orders from the automobile and machinery industries have decreased, and steel demand has decreased by 10%. Due to inflation pressure, Japan may raise interest rates again at the end of 2025, which will have a negative impact on steel demand. South Korea's construction industry is in a slump, and the exports of traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding are blocked. The steel industry demand in 2026 may continue to be weak. Europe's pig iron output continues to decline. High - interest - rate policies have restricted investment and consumption, and the demand for construction, durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances is weak. The euro - zone economy has maintained a low - growth state for a long time, suppressing steel demand [80][81][87]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, the pig iron output is expected to be high at first and then stable, with a year - on - year increase of more than 4.2%. From January to October 2025, the estimated pig iron output was 768 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Since June, hot metal production reached its peak and slowly declined, and steel mill profits gradually decreased. However, since the downstream inventory has always been maintained at a low level, the inventory - accumulation effect has not yet appeared. The estimated pig iron output in 2025 is 923 million tons, with an expected year - on - year increase of 4.2%. In 2026, it is expected that the real estate demand will still be sluggish, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will slow down, and the manufacturing industry will have a fair growth rate [94][99][100]. Inventory - **Overall Inventory Trend**: In 2025, iron ore shipments first decreased and then increased, while demand first increased and then decreased. In 2026, inventory may continue to increase. From January to August 2025, under the situation of a decline in overseas shipments and higher - than - expected demand, the iron ore port inventory maintained a de - stocking trend. Since September, especially after October, imports increased rapidly while downstream demand weakened, and the inventory increased rapidly. As of the latest data in early December 2025, the iron ore inventory across the entire industrial chain increased by about 11.85 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 292 million tons. Looking forward to 2026, with the release of new production capacity and the difficulty of demand growth, the iron ore inventory may continue to accumulate [111]. - **Inventory Variety Differentiation**: The inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Australian ore has recently declined from a high level. Against the background of the slow decline of the total inventory in 15 major ports, the inventory of different varieties shows obvious differentiation. The inventory of Brazilian ore is relatively stable, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently started to rise. The inventory of low - grade ore declined significantly from September to October and has slightly rebounded recently. The overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB powder has declined significantly from the high level in September [112][114]. Cost and Price - The current global cash cost of 90% of iron ore is at the level of about $90 per ton. Without obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and China, the iron ore supply - demand balance may be achieved through price cuts and reduced shipments, and the cost support around $85 is relatively strong [117][118].