36氪获悉，中信证券研报指出，1月9日，财政部、税务总局公告调整电池产品出口退税政策。我们认 为，本次政策是国家坚定推进"反内卷"、防止"内卷外化"的具体举措，政策连续性较强。从影响来看， 对于短期政策设置退税税率梯度式下降和过渡期的安排，企业可通过电池价格调整对冲影响，同时海外 需求有望迎来抢出口局面；中长期来看，在海外拥有电池产能的中国头部电池企业有望进一步提升全球 竞争力、获取更多的海外市场份额和更高的盈利水平。继续推荐中国头部电池企业。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月12日，中信证券研报指出，1月9日，财政部、税务总局公告调整电池产品出口退税政 策。我们认为，本次政策是国家坚定推进"反内卷"、防止"内卷外化"的具体举措，政策连续性较强。从 影响来看，对于短期政策设置退税税率梯度式下降和过渡期的安排，企业可通过电池价格调整对冲影 响，同时海外需求有望迎来抢出口局面；中长期来看，在海外拥有电池产能的中国头部电池企业有望进 一步提升全球竞争力、获取更多的海外市场份额和更高的盈利水平。继续推荐中国头部电池企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points and achieving a historical 16 consecutive days of gains, driven by sectors such as commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, humanoid robots, and resource stocks [1][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The current market rally is attributed to concentrated inflows from previously cautious funds, with a notable focus on thematic stocks and small-cap stocks rather than traditional allocation strategies [3][13]. - Short-term market sentiment remains high, with no signs of weakening emotional indicators, suggesting that the upward trend in thematic and small-cap stocks may continue until after the Two Sessions [3][13]. - The market is currently characterized by a high level of trading activity, with a significant increase in transaction volume, indicating strong investor confidence [16]. Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors with high cost-performance ratios, particularly those benefiting from external demand recovery, such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [4][14]. - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued upward momentum despite potential short-term profit-taking pressures [19]. - The resource sector, particularly traditional manufacturing, is advised for increased allocation, with a focus on enhancing pricing power [3][13]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to be a favorable period for the market, with historical data suggesting that significant trading volumes often lead to sustained upward trends [16]. - The market is expected to enter a phase of basic performance evaluation after the annual report disclosures in January, which may provide opportunities for investors to capitalize on growth potential [17]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the upward potential in the market outweighs the risks, with a focus on sectors that align with long-term growth trends, such as AI and semiconductor industries [20].

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Future Industries New Materials Expo (FINE 2026) aims to lead global innovation in new materials, serving as a pivotal platform for showcasing advancements in high-tech industries and facilitating collaboration and procurement in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - FINE 2026 will take place from June 10-12, 2026, at the Shanghai New International Expo Center, featuring a 50,000 square meter exhibition area and over 300 strategic and cutting-edge technology reports [3][13]. - The expo will focus on key industries such as artificial intelligence, aerospace, smart vehicles, and renewable energy, addressing five common needs in future industries: advanced semiconductors, advanced batteries, lightweight materials, low-carbon sustainability, and thermal management [3][11]. Group 2: Participation and Audience - The previous events, including the 9th International Carbon Materials Expo and the 6th Thermal Management Expo, attracted over 35,000 professional visitors from 27 countries, showcasing the growing interest and participation in the new materials sector [8][36]. - FINE 2026 is expected to draw over 100,000 professional attendees, including representatives from major companies like BYD, Huawei, and Tesla, as well as over 5,000 industry investors [36][11]. Group 3: Exhibition Highlights - The expo will feature six specialized thematic exhibition areas, including advanced semiconductors, advanced batteries, thermal management, lightweight materials, new materials technology innovation, and future smart terminals, with an anticipated participation of over 800 exhibitors and 200 research institutions [13][36]. - FINE 2026 will host more than 30 forums and 300 expert presentations, focusing on trends in technology, investment strategies, and advanced manufacturing techniques related to new materials [22][24]. Group 4: Organizer and Support - The event is organized by DT New Materials, a well-known consulting brand in the new materials industry, which has established a vast network of over 200,000 contacts across various sectors [11][53]. - The expo is supported by multiple associations and institutions, including the China Productivity Promotion Center Association and various new materials industry associations, enhancing its credibility and outreach [5][6].

Overall Viewpoint - This week, there were multiple supply-side events in the new energy sector: (1) Four ministries held a symposium on power and energy storage battery industries to regulate industry competition; (2) The "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector was influenced by market information, leading to a continuous decline in polysilicon futures; (3) Export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, while battery product export tax rates will gradually decrease to a cancellation by 2027. The new energy industry's "anti-involution" is inherently complex and challenging, with the state aiming to maintain international competitiveness. Balancing market and policy adjustments will evolve accordingly. Therefore, the direction of the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" will not change, focusing more on execution coordination and method restructuring; the battery industry is more about preventive reminders against energy storage battery oversupply; the adjustment of export tax rebate policies is expected to optimize the supply side, potentially leading to a short-term export rush [4]. Investment Perspective - (1) Market enthusiasm is currently focused on commercial aerospace and space computing, with wind power stocks such as Goldwind Technology, Taisheng Wind Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy, as well as photovoltaic stocks like Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, and Maiwei Co., having accumulated significant price increases, detaching from their core business fundamentals, making it inadvisable to chase high prices at this time [4]. - (2) AI power: There is optimism regarding domestic computing power demand rebounding after the NVIDIA H200 release; the HVDC solution is expected to ramp up, and SST technology and collaboration progress are likely to materialize; this can also align with AI applications to form sector rotation; the capital expenditure situation for North American data centers in 2027 needs to be assessed during the US stock annual report period for risk evaluation [4]. - (3) During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, based on the dual benefits of China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff in 2026, there is optimism for the coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol [5]. - (4) For energy storage/lithium battery upstream: The overall game on the lithium battery demand side is focused on domestic energy storage bidding in 2026; data on energy storage and vehicle terminals still need to be tracked, making it difficult to confirm or refute; the investment ranking for lithium battery materials is: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode; lithium carbonate prices still have upward momentum in the short term [5].

然而，出口退税政策本身也是一把双刃剑。在出口退税新政持续执行的过程中，越来越多的企业，特别是相关行业的中小企业，对出口退税政策的依赖度越 来越高。在高速发展之后，行业开始出现产能过剩的问题，不少企业依赖出口退税补贴来维持生存的状态，但行业内部产能过剩、供需结构不平衡等问题， 却没有发生实质性的变化。 在国际市场上，包括光伏等行业，近年来国际贸易摩擦等问题越来越明显。长期下去，不仅加重了财政负担压力，而且还不利于国际市场的影响地位，这个 时候出台出口退税新政，也基本上符合市场的预期。 光伏、电池出口退税新政出台，市场对此议论纷纷。从今年4月1日开始，包括光伏、电池等产品的增值税出口退税将会有重要调整。 具体来说，从今年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。另外，针对电池产品的增值税出口退税，将会分为两部分调整，第一步是从今年4月1日至12 月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%。第二步是从2027年1月1日开始，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。值得注意的是，这一次出口退税 的调整，主要体现在增值税出口退税，出口消费税仍不进行调整。 光伏与电池产品的出口退税税率下降，并非首次实施。在2024年11 ...

Group 1 - The boundary between passive investment through ETFs and actively managed funds is becoming increasingly blurred, with ETFs evolving into a "duet" with active equity funds [1] - The direction of ETF applications is increasingly serving as a "barometer" for many active equity funds, reflecting market demand and profitability [2] - Active equity funds are adopting ETF-like characteristics, with high concentration in specific sectors to achieve beta returns, often pushing their positions close to the 90% limit [2] Group 2 - The issuance of ETFs is often seen as a precursor to industry booms, as evidenced by the rapid adoption of robotics ETFs leading to a surge in active equity fund investments in the robotics sector [2] - The recent focus on commercial aerospace by active equity funds aligns with the launch of the first satellite ETF, indicating a strategic shift towards this sector [3] - A decrease in ETF applications for consumer sectors correlates with a reduction in active equity fund allocations to those areas, demonstrating a synchronized investment approach [3] Group 3 - The logic behind ETF applications has evolved from merely capturing flows to predicting industry turning points, significantly benefiting the research and investment strategies of active equity funds [4] - The recent surge in chemical ETFs reflects a strategic pivot in ETF product development, aligning with active fund managers' investment strategies [4][5] - The collaboration between ETF product development and research departments enhances the precision of investment strategies, allowing for better positioning in the market [8] Group 4 - The reverse positioning of ETFs during industry downturns often signals the end of a sector's decline and the potential for fundamental recovery, as seen in the solar and battery sectors [7] - The issuance of solar and battery ETFs by leading funds indicates a strategic bet on these sectors, supported by favorable policy changes [7] - The collaborative effect between ETF development and research departments is a significant advantage for precise market positioning [8]

Group 1 - The boundary between passive investment through ETFs and actively managed funds is becoming increasingly blurred, with ETFs evolving into a "duet" with active equity funds [1] - The direction of ETF applications is increasingly serving as a "barometer" for many active equity funds, reflecting market demand and profitability [2] - Active equity funds are adopting ETF-like characteristics, with high concentration in specific sectors to achieve beta returns, often pushing their positions close to the 90% limit [2] Group 2 - The issuance of ETFs is seen as a signal for industry booms, with examples like the robotics sector where major fund companies launched ETFs, leading to a surge in active fund investments in that area [2] - The recent focus on commercial aerospace by active equity funds aligns with the launch of the first satellite ETF, indicating a strategic shift towards this sector [3] - A decrease in ETF applications for consumer sectors correlates with a reduction in active fund allocations to those areas, demonstrating a synchronized investment approach [3] Group 3 - The logic behind ETF applications has evolved from merely capturing flows to predicting industry turning points, significantly benefiting the research and investment strategies of active equity funds [4] - The recent surge in chemical ETFs reflects a strategic pivot in ETF product development, with active funds adjusting their holdings in response to these new offerings [4][5] - The synchronization between active fund managers and ETF applications indicates a high level of collaboration between public investment research and product development [5] Group 4 - The reverse positioning of ETFs often signals the end of industry downturns, as seen in the solar and battery sectors, where ETFs were launched despite active funds reducing their exposure [6] - The issuance of solar and battery ETFs by leading public funds aligns with policy changes aimed at industry reform, suggesting a strategic move towards enhancing profitability for leading companies [6] Group 5 - The collaboration between ETF product development and research departments has become a significant advantage for public funds in identifying investment opportunities [7] - ETF applications are evolving into precursors for active equity fund strategies, providing liquidity for sectors that are underrepresented or have been overlooked [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry as a whole, but it highlights various sectors with their respective valuation metrics, indicating potential investment opportunities based on historical percentiles [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks the valuation of A-shares as of January 9, 2026, with the overall market PE at 22.4 times and PB at 1.9 times, indicating a historical percentile of 83% and 49% respectively [1][2]. - Key sectors with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, and IT Services [1][2]. - The semiconductor market is projected to reach nearly $1 trillion in sales by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [3]. Valuation Summary A-Share Valuation - The overall market PE is 22.4x, with a historical percentile of 83% [1][2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index PE is 12x, with a historical percentile of 65% [1][2]. - The ChiNext Index PE is 42.6x, with a historical percentile of 41% [1][2]. Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include: - Real Estate - Automation Equipment - Retail - Chemical Pharmaceuticals - Electronics - IT Services [1][2]. - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include: - Defense and Military - Electronics (Semiconductors) - Telecommunications [1][2]. Sector-Specific Insights New Energy - The photovoltaic industry sees a mixed trend with upstream silicon prices down by 9.4% while downstream battery prices increased by 1.3% [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 17.9% due to supply disruptions [1][2]. Technology (TMT) - The semiconductor index rose by 3.7%, with global sales increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [3]. - DRAM prices increased by 10.9%, indicating strong demand in the cloud services sector [3]. Real Estate Chain - Steel prices increased slightly, while cement prices remained stable [3]. - The glass market is expected to reach a weak balance due to production adjustments [3]. Consumer Goods - Pork prices decreased by 1.0%, while wholesale prices for liquor increased by 2.2% [3]. - Agricultural products showed mixed price movements, with corn prices stable and soybean prices up by 0.8% [3]. Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales increased by 19.2% year-on-year, driven by equipment upgrades and demand from mining sectors [3]. Cyclical Industries - Industrial metals saw price increases, with copper up by 4.1% [3]. - Brent crude oil prices rose by 3.7% due to geopolitical tensions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the A-share market continues to rise with increased trading volume, driven by heightened risk appetite, suggesting that the spring rally may have further room to grow [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has broken through previous highs, indicating a continuation of the spring rally driven by strong momentum effects [1] - The trading structure appears concentrated, with some hot sectors needing to alleviate pressure from overcrowding, increasing the likelihood of a rotation in market trends [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - As the earnings forecast window approaches, it is advised to seek high cost-performance opportunities, focusing on sectors with improved external demand and relatively low crowding [1] - Specific industries recommended for attention include gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [1] Group 3: Mid-term Strategy - The mid-term allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a recommendation to accumulate upstream resource products in the power supply chain during price dips [1]