策略说明: · 恒泰证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和切 换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基于 行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》（20241013）,构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 恒泰证券 HENGTAI SECURITIES 研究所 行业轮动ETF策略周报 (20250818-20250824) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangy i@cnht. com. cn 2025年8月25日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 图表3: 行业轮动ETF策略建仓以来累计收益率(20241014-20250822) 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a bifurcation driven by dual forces of policy and technology, with a focus on capturing the benefits of leading companies through the Hong Kong automotive ETF [1][4]. - The market shows a preference for battery-related ETFs over traditional automotive stocks, indicating a shift towards electric and smart vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive ETF showed mixed performance, with the new energy vehicle ETF rising by 3.17% and the traditional automotive ETF declining by 0.86% [2][11]. - The automotive sector's performance lagged behind the broader market, with a growth of only 1.16% compared to the 3.92% increase in the CSI 300 index [2][23]. Industry Dynamics - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by 9% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, for July, maintaining an upward trend for the year [3][39]. - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 789,000 units in July, a 15% increase year-on-year, despite a 17% decline month-on-month [42][46]. Industry Trend Outlook - The report predicts that the dual drivers of policy support and technological advancements will continue to enhance growth momentum in the automotive sector [3][53]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50%, supported by ongoing subsidies and advancements in autonomous driving technology [4][55]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests an overweight position in the smart electric passenger vehicle segment, highlighting the potential for growth driven by policy support and technological advancements [4][55]. - The Hong Kong automotive ETF (520600.OF) is recommended for its concentrated exposure to leading new energy vehicle companies, which may benefit from performance recovery expectations [4][55].

Group 1 - The total trading amount for Shanghai Stock Connect today was 1174.51 billion, while Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 1216.93 billion [1] - The top traded stocks in Shanghai Stock Connect included WuXi AppTec, followed by Hengrui Medicine and Industrial Fulian [1] - In Shenzhen Stock Connect, the leading stock was CATL, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Shenghong Technology in second and third places respectively [1] Group 2 - Sectors such as film and television, oil and gas, baby products, and food showed significant gains, while sectors like stablecoins, solid-state batteries, software development, and rare earth permanent magnets experienced declines [2] - The banking sector saw a net inflow of 11.81 billion, leading among sectors, while the computer sector had the highest net outflow at -123.33 billion [4] Group 3 - The top ten ETFs by trading volume included Hong Kong Securities ETF with 207.10 billion, and Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF with 182.73 billion, showing a significant increase of 56.97% from the previous trading day [5] - The top ten ETFs with the highest growth in trading volume compared to the previous day included the S&P Consumer ETF, which surged by 851.51% [5] Group 4 - The four major index futures contracts saw both long and short positions increase significantly, with long positions in IF and IM contracts notably exceeding short positions [6] Group 5 - Institutional activity was high, with notable purchases in stocks like Jinling Sports and Xinfu Jianhai, while stocks like Beifang Changlong and Hengbao shares faced significant sell-offs [7][8] - The trading activity of retail investors showed a rebound, with significant transactions in cyclical stocks and notable sell-offs in stocks like Zhongyin Securities [9] Group 6 - Quantitative funds showed moderate activity, with significant purchases in Shenghe Resources and notable sell-offs in stocks like Xizang Tianlu [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a bull phase, with significant losses reported among short sellers in commodity and stock index futures. The article suggests that the most certain investment opportunities in a bull market are either in leading sectors or in severely undervalued stocks [2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The article emphasizes that low-priced stocks tend to be driven up to reasonable levels during a bull market, indicating that underperforming sectors may see substantial gains due to ongoing liquidity and policy support [2]. - The upcoming major meetings are expected to enhance expectations for "stabilizing growth," which may provide considerable policy space for undervalued industries [2]. Group 2: ETF Analysis - The article utilizes the net value percentile calculation method to assess which sectors are currently in a state of severe undervaluation [3]. - A table is provided showing various ETFs, their net value percentiles since 2023 and 2024, and their performance in 2025, highlighting sectors like photovoltaic, alcohol, and real estate [7]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic sector is identified as particularly undervalued, with ETFs like the photovoltaic ETF (515790.SH) and new energy ETF (516160.SH) showing significant declines. The sector's performance is closely tied to government policies aimed at stabilizing growth [9][10]. - The alcohol sector, particularly the alcohol ETF (512690.SH), is also noted for being in a state of decline, with a lack of clear catalysts for recovery until consumer data improves [20][21]. - The real estate sector shows signs of divergence, with the real estate ETF (159707.SZ) experiencing intermittent policy-driven rallies but ultimately returning to lower levels [25][26]. Group 4: Medical and Pharmaceutical Sector - The medical and pharmaceutical sectors are highlighted as being collectively undervalued, with various ETFs like the biopharmaceutical ETF (159859.SZ) showing potential for recovery due to recent policy shifts regarding procurement practices [33][35]. - The medical ETF (512170.SH) is also mentioned as being in a relatively low valuation position, with a modest performance outlook [39]. Group 5: Commodity and Chemical Sectors - The coal sector has seen a significant price drop but is experiencing a rebound due to rising prices in coking coal and coke futures, with the coal ETF (515220.SH) reflecting this trend [43][45]. - The chemical sector is noted for its broad product range and recent price increases in lithium carbonate, with the chemical ETF (159870.SZ) positioned as relatively undervalued [49][54]. Conclusion - The article concludes that sectors such as chemicals, biopharmaceuticals, medical, alcohol, and photovoltaic are currently in a state of severe undervaluation, presenting potential investment opportunities for discerning investors [56].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.25% and 0.36% respectively [1] - The total market turnover reached 14,545 billion, an increase of 1,210 billion compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as cross-border payments, banking, gaming, electricity, steel, and innovative pharmaceuticals saw the highest gains [1] - Conversely, sectors like solid-state batteries, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and wind power equipment faced the largest declines [1] ETF Performance - The gaming ETFs led the gains, with the following performances: - Gaming ETF (516010) up by 2.47% with a turnover of 157 million - Gaming ETF Huatai-PB (516770) up by 2.22% with a turnover of 31.57 million - Gaming ETF (159869) up by 2.21% with a turnover of 1,054 million [2] - Other notable ETFs included: - Banking ETFs also showed positive performance, with the top performer being Banking ETF (516310) up by 2.02% [2] Regulatory Developments - The Hong Kong Financial Secretary announced that the "Stablecoin Regulation" will take effect on August 1, allowing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to start accepting license applications [2] - Several companies have expressed intentions to apply for stablecoin licenses, indicating a growing interest in this market segment [2] Industry Trends - Open-source Securities reported that stablecoins are entering a "singularity" moment, with their application expanding from cryptocurrency trading to broader payment scenarios, leading to rapid growth in market size and trading activity [3]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.3. Multiple ETFs in the electric power equipment sector saw significant gains, including the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830.SH) up by 4.71%, Battery 50 ETF (159796.SZ) up by 4.12%, and Battery ETF (561910.SH) up by 4.01. In contrast, several ETFs in the non-ferrous metals sector declined, with the Gold Stocks ETF (517400.SH) down by 1.47% [1][3][6] - Wanlian Securities noted that in the context of energy transition, global renewable energy installations are rapidly increasing, coupled with the upgrade of grid equipment, leading to stable growth in global grid construction investment. China's electric power equipment products possess technological and cost advantages, making them competitive, with the export of transformers, electric meters, switches, and cables expected to benefit continuously [1] New ETF Launches - The first batch of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 580 ETF has been reported, with Huaxia Fund and E Fund simultaneously applying for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 580 ETF and its linked fund. The Shanghai 580 Index, which focuses on small-cap stocks, was just released in mid-June, and the recently optimized Shanghai 380 Index has also attracted interest from public funds [2] Market Performance Overview - On June 24, the three major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Index closing at 3420.57 points, the Shenzhen Component at 10217.63 points, and the ChiNext Index at 2064.13 points. The North Stock 50 and ChiNext Index ranked high in daily performance, with daily increases of 3.65% and 2.3%, respectively [3] Sector Performance - In the performance of various sectors, electric power equipment, non-bank financials, and retail trade ranked at the top, with daily increases of 2.85%, 2.68%, and 2.64%, respectively. In contrast, the oil and petrochemical, coal, and defense sectors lagged behind, with daily changes of -2.1%, -0.22%, and 0.13% [6] ETF Market Performance - The overall performance of ETFs showed that cross-border ETFs performed the best with an average increase of 1.94%, while commodity ETFs had the worst performance with an average decrease of -1.21% [8] - The top five performing ETFs today included the Kexin New Energy ETF (588960.SH) with a return of 9.44%, followed by the Robot 50 ETF (159559.SZ) at 4.79%, and the Kexin New Energy ETF (588830.SH) at 4.71% [10] Trading Volume of Different ETF Categories - The top three ETFs by trading volume were the CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) with a trading volume of 4.815 billion, Kexin 50 ETF (588000.SH) at 3.393 billion, and A500 ETF (512050.SH) at 3.345 billion [12][13]

从2026年7月1日起，新版动力电池安全国家强制性标准就要正式开始实施，要求电池 "不起火、不爆炸"。留心的朋友会发现，这个新国标的实施时间和各 大车企公布的固态电池量产时间非常相近，预计届时会大幅度提升新车型对固态电池的搭载率。 目前中国固态电池产业链竞争格局层次分明，老牌电池企业阵营中以宁德时代、国轩高科、先导智能等龙头具有代表性，新兴企业当中卫蓝新能源、清陶能 源、太蓝新能源等潜力较大，这些电池ETF（561910）均有布局。 在多重利好催化下，最近固态电池概念股表现很活跃，鹏辉能源、国轩高科等涨幅显著，三祥新材年内涨幅甚至高达30%。 电池网数据显示，整个5月近20只固态电池概念股获得杠杆资金加仓，其中比亚迪、国轩高科杠杆资金净买入额居前，分别为10.2亿元和1.52亿元；天奈科 技、容百科技、先导智能、当升科技等杠杆资金加仓额也居前。 今日早盘，亿纬锂能、欣旺达、科达利等纷纷涨超1%，固态电池含量较高的$电池ETF(SH561910)$盘中一度涨超0.8%。数据显示，该ETF从4月8日以来累 计上涨了5%，自去年924以来涨幅更是高达21%。 最近5个交易日电池ETF（561910）也一直保持吸金姿 ...

Group 1: Fund Manager Dynamics - A well-known 'fund king' has never received a rating from Jinan due to significant style drift, operating open-end funds like closed-end funds, raising industry concerns [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun and his team support an overweight stance on the Chinese stock market, citing potential resilience in the RMB exchange rate and an expected moderate improvement in corporate earnings [2] - The first batch of innovative floating-rate funds will start selling on May 27, with most products expected to close fundraising in June [3] - Credit bond ETFs are set to officially implement a pledge-style repurchase business, with several public fund institutions' credit bond ETFs meeting the necessary conditions [4] Group 3: Banking Sector - With domestic deposit rates declining, over 70% of A-share listed banks have a dividend yield exceeding 4%, and some banks have yields surpassing 8%, making bank stocks more attractive than traditional savings [5] Group 4: New Fund Launches - 15 new public funds were launched, with over 70% being equity funds, primarily index funds, covering various sectors including fintech, internet, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [6] Group 5: ETF Market Performance - A-shares experienced a collective adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, Shenzhen Component down 0.41%, and ChiNext down 0.80%, while the Northbound 50 Index rose 1.94% [7] - The total market turnover was 10,339 billion, a decrease of 1,487 billion from the previous day, with nearly 3,800 stocks rising [7] - The gaming sector saw strong performance, with multiple gaming ETFs rising between 2.93% and 2.96% [9] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Trends - Hong Kong automotive stocks experienced a pullback, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect automotive ETF down 4.38% and the Hong Kong automotive ETF down 4.31% [11]

Market Overview - On May 22, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced adjustments, with over 970 out of more than 1100 ETFs declining [1] - The S&P 500 ETF (159612) led the market with a gain of 4.51%, but was suspended for one hour due to high premiums, marking 23 consecutive trading days of high premiums since April 17 [3][4] - Overall, the ETF market saw a net outflow of approximately 3.27 billion yuan on May 21, with significant outflows from broad-based ETFs [1][10] Sector Performance - The top ten performing ETFs were predominantly from the gaming and banking sectors, with eight out of ten positions occupied by these sectors [2] - Three gaming ETFs saw gains exceeding 1%, while five banking ETFs also rose by over 0.8% [2] - Conversely, battery and Hong Kong internet sector ETFs faced notable declines, with many dropping over 1.5% [1][5] Fund Flows - Military sector ETFs experienced significant net inflows, totaling over 1.3 billion yuan on May 21, with the leading military ETF (512710) gaining 0.32% [7][8] - In contrast, broad-based ETFs faced substantial net outflows, exceeding 2.7 billion yuan, with several ETFs in the technology and healthcare sectors also seeing outflows [10] New ETF Launches - Several new ETFs were launched on May 21, including the ICBC China Enterprise Digital Economy ETF, which raised 982 million yuan, and the Ping An All-Index Free Cash Flow ETF, which raised 718 million yuan [13]

Market Overview - As of May 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.22% at 3380.19 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.72% at 10219.62 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% at 2045.57 points, indicating a broad market decline [1] - The total trading volume across both markets reached 1.10 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The top three sectors in terms of gains were rural commercial banks (+1.95%), ground weaponry (+1.62%), and gaming (+1.51%) [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were animal health (-2.63%), cosmetics (-2.50%), and non-metallic materials (-2.45%) [1] ETF Performance - A total of 116 non-currency ETFs rose, with an increase rate of 10% [1] - The China Animation and Gaming Index rose by 1.99%, with the following ETFs performing well: Huatai-PB Gaming ETF (+2.21%), Gaming ETF (+2.01%), and another Gaming ETF (+1.84%) [1] - The China Banking Index increased by 1.00%, with the following ETFs also showing positive performance: Bank ETF Index Fund (+1.02%), E Fund Bank ETF (+0.98%), and Tianhong Bank ETF (+0.97%) [1] Notable ETFs - The S&P 500 ETF (159612.SZ) saw a rise of 4.51%, with a total share size of 347 million [3] - The Huatai-PB Gaming ETF (516770.SH) increased by 2.21%, with a share size of 117 million [4] - The E Fund Bank ETF (516310.SH) rose by 0.98%, with a total share size of 1.047 billion [4] Valuation Metrics - The current P/E ratio for the S&P 500 Index is 26.14, which is below 71.18% of the time over the past three years [4] - The P/E ratio for the China Animation and Gaming Index is 53.77, also below 54.89% of the time in the last three years [4] - The P/E ratio for the China Banking Index stands at 6.71, lower than 99.74% of the time in the past three years [5] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 Consumer Select Index showed a premium of 27.47%, while the S&P 500 ETF had a premium of 18.74%, indicating positive market sentiment [8][10] - Overall, the A-share market is experiencing a rebound with bullish stocks emerging, supported by favorable policy developments [10]