Economic Overview - China's macroeconomic policies are well-prepared to respond dynamically to changing circumstances, ensuring stable economic operation [1][11] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 1.3 percentage points compared to April [1][3] - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, showing a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from April [1][6] Consumption Growth - The increase in consumer spending is supported by several factors, including the "old-for-new" policy, promotional events like "6·18", and strong holiday consumption [3][4] - Retail sales of household appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, contributing 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales increase [4] - The restaurant sector experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 5.9% in May, reflecting improved consumer confidence [4][6] Industrial Production - Industrial production remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in May, supported by macroeconomic policies and industrial upgrades [6][8] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors outperformed the overall industrial growth, with increases of 9% and 8.6% respectively [6][8] - High-tech product output, such as 3D printing equipment and integrated circuits, saw substantial growth, with increases of 40% and 11.5% respectively [6] Investment Trends - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year [10] - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, contrasting with a decline of 10.7% in real estate development investment [10] - The issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 440 billion yuan in May, indicating a strong push for effective investment [10] Future Outlook - The economic environment remains complex, with external uncertainties and domestic challenges persisting, necessitating continued policy support [1][8] - The focus will be on enhancing consumer capacity and willingness, improving the consumption environment, and promoting high-quality development [4][11] - The manufacturing investment growth rate is expected to gradually decline to around 8% by 2025, influenced by external pressures and domestic productivity improvements [10]

Economic Overview - In May, the overall economic operation remained stable with signs of improvement, showcasing strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1][2] - The retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The industrial production saw a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in May, with a month-on-month growth of 0.61% [1] Service Sector - The service sector's production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year in May, which is an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, the total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 191,947 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is stabilizing, with the price decline in new residential properties continuing to narrow in May [3][4] - The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing from January to May decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous four months [3] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased by 7.15 million square meters in May, marking three consecutive months of decline [3] Policy Measures - The implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies has effectively enhanced consumption vitality and supported production growth [5] - The policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to respond to changing circumstances, ensuring continued economic stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable growth of China's economy in May 2025, driven by effective macroeconomic policies and a focus on high-quality development, despite external uncertainties and domestic demand challenges [1]. Group 1: Industrial Production - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month, with manufacturing growing by 6.2% [2]. - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw significant growth, with increases of 9.0% and 8.6% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth by 3.2 and 2.8 percentage points [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.5%, indicating a slight improvement, while the business activity expectation index rose to 52.5% [2]. Group 2: Service Sector - The service sector production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year in May, with notable increases in information transmission, software, and IT services at 11.2% [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2%, indicating stable growth, while the business activity expectation index reached 56.5% [3]. Group 3: Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with urban retail sales increasing by 6.5% [4]. - The sales of home appliances and communication equipment surged due to the "trade-in" policy, with growth rates of 53.0% and 33.0% respectively [5]. Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [6]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7% [6]. Group 5: Trade and Employment - In May, the total value of goods imports and exports was 38,098 billion yuan, with exports increasing by 6.3% [7]. - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0% in May, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [8]. Group 6: Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, with core CPI rising by 0.6% [9]. - The prices of food and beverages increased slightly, while transportation and communication prices saw a significant decline of 4.3% [9]. Group 7: Producer Prices - In May, the producer price index for industrial producers decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [10].

Economic Overview - In May, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee, the national economy maintained stable operation, with steady growth in production and demand, and overall employment stability [2][10] - The economic performance reflects resilience and vitality, although external uncertainties and the need to enhance domestic demand remain challenges [10] Industrial Production - In May, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 9.0% and 8.6% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.2 and 2.8 percentage points [3] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.5, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [3] Service Sector - The service production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Key sectors such as information transmission, software, and IT services saw growth rates of 11.2%, 8.9%, and 8.4% respectively, exceeding the overall service production index growth [4] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [5] - The sales of home appliances and communication equipment surged by 53.0% and 33.0% respectively, driven by the "replace old with new" policy [5] - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [5] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year [6] - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, while real estate development investment declined by 10.7% [6] Trade Performance - In May, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 38,098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [7] - Exports rose by 6.3% to 22,767 billion yuan, while imports fell by 2.1% to 15,331 billion yuan [7] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0% in May, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [8] - The average weekly working hours for employees were reported at 48.5 hours [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, with core CPI rising by 0.6% [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 3.3% year-on-year [9]

Group 1 - The concept of "new momentum" is crucial for promoting high-quality economic development, driven by technological innovation and new industries, business models, and forms [1] - In May, sales revenue in high-tech industries grew by 15% year-on-year, while the core digital economy industries saw an 11.2% increase, indicating a strong growth trend [1] - The integration of digital and physical realms is accelerating, with technologies like big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence becoming key drivers for industrial upgrades and economic structure optimization [1] Group 2 - In May, sales revenue for industrial robots and special operation robots increased by 13.2% and 28.3% year-on-year, reflecting the deepening implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [2] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion zone for four consecutive months, showcasing robust development in new quality productivity [2] - The emergence of new foreign trade models, such as bonded maintenance projects, indicates an increase in the "new momentum" within the foreign trade sector, enhancing the competitiveness of high-tech and high-value-added products [2] Group 3 - There is a recognition of the need to stabilize the foundation for the continuous recovery of the national economy amidst external uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of technological innovation in creating new growth points [3] - The ongoing transition from old to new momentum is essential for exploring new fields and tracks, which will further cultivate "new momentum" to support high-quality economic development [3]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy is currently facing a complex situation of short-term demand insufficiency and supply surplus, reflecting both cyclical fluctuations and structural imbalances during the industrial transformation process. The capital market serves as an economic "barometer," capturing supply-demand changes and providing forward-looking economic signals for decision-makers. The article suggests enhancing short-term demand management while deepening supply-side reforms to optimize macro-control using capital market signals, thereby improving the efficiency and quality of supply-demand dynamic balance [1]. Group 1: Current Imbalance of Total Supply and Demand - Since 2022, persistent low domestic prices and capital market price adjustments reflect issues of insufficient total demand and supply imbalance [2]. - Total demand remains weak, with both investment and consumption under pressure. As of April 2025, CPI has been low for 25 months, and PPI has experienced negative growth. The GDP deflator index has declined for eight consecutive quarters, indicating weak future demand expectations [3]. - Investment in real estate has led to a significant drop in related asset prices, with real estate development investment growth slowing since April 2022, causing related industries like black metal smelting and cement to experience negative price growth [3]. - Consumer spending is also affected by slowing income growth, with actual income growth decreasing from 8.2% in 2015 to 5.1% in 2024, and retail sales growth dropping from 10.4% in April 2015 to 4.7% in April 2025 [3]. Group 2: Structural Supply Imbalance - Traditional industries face overcapacity pressures, with industrial capacity utilization hovering around 75%, below the internationally recognized level of 80%. As of April 2025, indices for traditional cyclical industries like steel and chemicals have dropped by 27.7% and 31.1% respectively from their 2022 peaks [4]. - Emerging industries are experiencing rapid expansion alongside price declines, with significant price drops in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles. The photovoltaic equipment index has fallen by 68.4% from its 2022 peak [4]. - External demand uncertainty is increasing, with export prices for products like optical fibers and new energy vehicles declining significantly, reflecting the negative impact of external demand fluctuations on enterprises [4]. Group 3: Analysis of Causes for Imbalance - The supply-demand imbalance stems from a combination of external complexities and domestic economic transformation challenges, influenced by cyclical factors, structural contradictions, and trend changes [5]. - Post-pandemic recovery has been asymmetric, with industrial production recovering faster than consumer spending, leading to inventory buildup and increased supply pressure [6]. - Investment is increasingly directed towards innovation-driven industries, with significant capital inflow into high-tech manufacturing, while traditional manufacturing sectors see capital outflow [7]. - The shift towards high-quality development is reshaping supply-demand relationships, with a focus on efficiency and green low-carbon initiatives impacting traditional energy-intensive industries [8]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The government emphasizes addressing structural supply-demand contradictions to promote balance, suggesting the use of market signals to guide policy formulation [9]. - Establishing a multi-dimensional monitoring network that includes stock market indices, futures price trends, and ETF fund flows is recommended to enhance macroeconomic assessment [10]. - Implementing market-oriented capacity governance mechanisms and targeted policies to promote industrial upgrades is crucial for addressing overcapacity and guiding enterprises towards quality improvement [11]. - Demand management strategies should focus on using market information for counter-cyclical adjustments, supporting technology innovation and improving income distribution to enhance consumer capacity [13].

高端化提升含"金"量，智能化提升含"新"量，绿色化提升含"绿"量 效益提升景气改善装备制造业持续向中高端迈进 今年以来，我国政策工具箱持续丰富完善，存量政策与增量政策协同发力，推动生产和消费需求稳步回 升，经济运行呈现出更强的稳定性和协调性。中国制造业经历了4月份短暂波动后，开始呈现稳步恢复 态势。5月31日，中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心发布的5月份中国制造业采购经理 指数(PMI)为49.5%，比4月份上升0.5个百分点，制造业景气水平有所改善。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，5月份PMI指数出现回升，表明加紧实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现。同时，PMI生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出现回升，表明在 多项政策综合效应下企业预期改善，生产经营活动有回暖迹象。 党的二十大提出，"到2035年基本实现新型工业化，加快建设制造强国"。制造业高质量发展是我国经济 高质量发展的重中之重。2024年以来，国家出台了多项支持制造业高质量发展的政策，制造业转型升级 步伐加快，继续向高端化、智能化、绿色化方向发展，推动新质生产力的形成。 市场活力持续提升 据工业和信息化部最新数 ...

7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇诚邀您莅临【格隆汇中期策略会 2025 】！ 东方港湾创始人兼董事长但斌先生将带来他的最新投资策略分析，当前 A 股估值处于历史中 低位，港股恒生科技指数更具反弹潜力，政策对"新质生产力"的聚焦，如人工智能、人形机器 人等，正在重塑产业竞争格局。 面对复杂的全球经济环境，中国经济正呈现 "温和复苏、结构优化"的特征。 根据中国科学院预测科学研究中心数据， 2025 年 GDP 增速预计达 4.8% ，其中高技术制造 业投资增速持续领跑，成为经济增长的核心引擎。 货币政策层面， 5 月 20 日 LPR 双降 10 个基点至 1 年期 3.00% 、 5 年期 3.50% ，释 放出稳健偏宽松的政策信号，为资本市场注入流动性支持。 与此同时，美联储 6 月降息预期升温，全年预计降息 50 个基点，全球风险偏好的回升将进一 步提振科技资产估值。 躬身耕耘的星火，终成燎原之势； 破浪而行的孤舟，自达沧海之界。 【格隆汇中期策略会 2025 】 在深圳期待您的莅临！ 你还在等什么！ 长按图片识别二维码进行报名吧！ 东方港湾创始人兼董事长 中国人民大学法学硕士、中欧国际工商学院 EMBA ...

贯彻落实中央政治局会议精神，相关部门加快推出稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措，有力有效 应对外部冲击，国民经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势。 6月5日，新华社推出第十八期"中国经济圆桌会"大型全媒体访谈节目，邀请国家发展改革委综合司副司 长丁琳、人力资源社会保障部就业促进司副司长陈勇嘉、中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰，共 话"四稳"最新进展。 各项举措加快出台实施，对经济形成有力支撑 "稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措，是应对外部环境变化、做强国内大循环的重要举措。在一 季度实现良好开局的基础上，我国经济延续了稳中向新向好的发展态势。"丁琳在接受"中国经济圆桌 会"访谈时说，目前，各项举措正在加快出台实施，政策组合效应不断释放： 经济有韧性——尽管外部环境复杂严峻，但工业生产、服务业发展、国内需求、对外出口等都保持了较 快增速。 内需有潜力——前4个月家电、通讯器材等商品零售额保持20%以上增速，设备工器具购置投资增长 18.2%，"两重""两新"政策效应持续显现。 创新有活力——4月份高技术制造业增加值同比增长10%、比全部工业快近4个百分点，新能源汽车、人 工智能大模型、人形机器人等产 ...

Group 1: Economic Stability and Growth - The central government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure economic stability amid external uncertainties [1][3] - In Q1, China's GDP growth reached 5.4%, exceeding the annual target by 0.4 percentage points, indicating a recovery in economic growth [3][4] - Key economic indicators such as industrial value-added, service production index, retail sales, and fixed asset investment showed year-on-year growth of 6.4%, 5.9%, 4.7%, and 4.0% respectively from January to April [3][4] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - The average urban unemployment rate from January to April was 5.2%, consistent with the previous year, with a slight decrease to 5.1% in April [3][4] - In Q1, 3.08 million new urban jobs were created, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50,000 jobs, indicating a stable employment situation [9] Group 3: Policy Measures and Implementation - The government has introduced a series of policies to stimulate consumption, including a doubling of support funds for the "old for new" consumption policy to 300 billion yuan [6][7] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 18.2% year-on-year from January to April, significantly higher than the overall investment growth rate [8] - The government is focusing on enhancing macroeconomic policy effectiveness through dynamic adjustments and timely implementation of counter-cyclical measures [10][12] Group 4: Trade and Foreign Relations - China's total goods trade value from January to April was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports growing by 7.5% [8] - The government is implementing measures to support foreign trade enterprises, including expanding export credit insurance and enhancing financial support [8][12] Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The "old for new" consumption policy has shown positive results, with significant growth in retail sales of communication equipment, cultural products, and home appliances [7][13] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending by increasing the income of low- and middle-income groups and promoting high-quality service consumption [13][14]