该行估计，巴拿马两个港口仅占集团旗下和记港口控股EBITDA的5%，以及长和整体EBITDA的0.8%。 下行风险更多在于长和正在进行的港口业务出售谈判，其中包括相关的两个巴拿马港口。不过，早前亦 有报道指，长和正考虑将港口交易拆分为不同所有权结构的独立部分进行处理。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，媒体报道巴拿马最高法院裁定长和(00001)经营巴拿马运河附近两 个港口的合约违宪。诉讼源于巴拿马较早前指控长和去年与其进行的合约延期，令巴拿马损失超过10亿 美元的税收，且长和未能为该合约延期取得适当批准。报道亦指出，长和只能提出动议寻求澄清，无法 就裁决结果提出上诉。该行现予长和"买入"评级，目标价67港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Cheung Kong is entering a phase of moderate profit recovery, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% over the next three years, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 68 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The stock price fell by 4.6% on the previous Friday due to the Panama Supreme Court ruling that declared Cheung Kong's port concession in Panama unconstitutional [1] - The two Panama ports contribute less than 1% to Cheung Kong's EBITDA, indicating limited impact from the ruling [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The ruling is seen as politically sensitive but may facilitate consensus among various stakeholders, including Blackstone and the US and Chinese governments, regarding the global port sale plan valued at HKD 110 billion [1] - The potential exit of Panama from the port sale may lead to a different structure for the sale, possibly involving multiple buyers instead of a single consortium [1] Group 3: Value Release Strategies - Cheung Kong is exploring other avenues to unlock value, including potential retail business spin-offs and the listing of its telecommunications business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Cheung Kong is entering a mild profit recovery phase, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% over the next three years, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 68 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The stock price fell by 4.6% on the previous Friday due to a ruling by the Panama Supreme Court declaring Cheung Kong's port concession in Panama unconstitutional [1] - The two ports in question contribute less than 1% to Cheung Kong's EBITDA, indicating limited impact on overall financial performance [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - Despite the negative headline, the ruling is not expected to jeopardize the HKD 110 billion global port sale plan, as these ports are politically sensitive [1] - The potential exit of Panama from the plan may facilitate consensus among various stakeholders, including Blackstone and the US and Chinese governments, although the final structure or scale may differ from the original plan [1] - Cheung Kong is exploring other avenues to unlock value, including a potential retail business spin-off and a listing of its telecommunications business [1]

瑞银指，巴拿马两个港口仅占集团旗下和记港口控股EBITDA的5%，以及长和整体EBITDA的0.8%。下 行风险更多在于长和正在进行的港口业务出售谈判，其中包括相关的两个巴拿马港口。不过，早前亦有 报道指，长和正考虑将港口交易拆分为不同所有权结构的独立部分进行处理。 长和(00001)再跌超3%，截至发稿，跌3.56%，报61港元，成交额7.16亿港元。 消息面上，巴拿马最高法院此前发布一份裁决，称李嘉诚家族控制的长江和记实业旗下公司运营的两个 巴拿马港口，港口合同违宪，并取消有关合同。对此，外交部发言人1月30日下午回应事件称，有关企 业已经第一时间发表声明，表示该裁决有悖于巴拿马方面批准相关特许经营权的法律，企业将保留包括 诉讼法律程序在内的所有权利。中方将采取一切必要措施，坚决维护中方企业正当合法权益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of CK Hutchison Holdings (00001) has dropped over 3%, currently trading at HKD 61, following a ruling by the Panama Supreme Court that declared contracts for two ports operated by its subsidiary unconstitutional, leading to their cancellation [1] Group 1: Company Impact - The Panama Supreme Court's ruling affects two ports controlled by CK Hutchison, which are deemed unconstitutional, resulting in the cancellation of related contracts [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, stating that the company will retain all rights, including legal proceedings, to contest the ruling [1] - UBS noted that the two Panama ports contribute only 5% to the EBITDA of the group's port holdings and 0.8% to CK Hutchison's overall EBITDA [1] Group 2: Business Operations - The ruling poses a downside risk to CK Hutchison's ongoing negotiations for the sale of its port business, which includes the two affected Panama ports [1] - There are reports indicating that CK Hutchison is considering restructuring the port transactions into independent parts with different ownership structures [1]

政府关门的钟声还未敲响，特朗普却已经迫不及待地开始敲打键盘。1月28日，他在《华尔街日报》上挥笔疾书，撂下了一句从未见过这样的情况，将矛头 直指中国，仿佛旧账新算就能掩盖眼前财政赤字的窘迫。然而，这场气势汹汹的胜利演讲，究竟真的是数据背后的胜利，还是一场看似雄壮的虚晃？ 特朗普这一番言辞并非由赢家发声。他想让美国民众相信，他正在领导着一场胜利。他所引用的数据看起来相当有说服力：他宣称，中国在美国进口中的份 额持续下降，达到了2001年以来的最低点。听上去，这无疑是一记漂亮的反击，但如果深挖下去，就会发现，这个说法似乎只讲了一部分的真相。那么现实 到底是怎样的呢？根据官方数据，中国2025年全年贸易顺差将达到1.2万亿美元。这哪儿像是失败者的样子？反倒是美国，2025年全球贸易逆差预计超过1.2 万亿美元。这个逆差搬家的游戏，让人不禁联想到儿时玩积木：明明前方堆不起来，只能把它移到后面，可整体的结构依然崩塌。 那么，特朗普为何急于发文呢？他想传递的信号并不是给中国，而是给美国最高法院。此时，法院正在审理对等关税的合法性问题。如果特朗普败诉，美国 可能需要退还近10个月以来的全球加征关税，金额大约为3000亿美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current atmosphere in the U.S. government is extremely tense, with the potential for a government shutdown and significant financial repercussions if the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration regarding tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Implications - The U.S. government may face a financial crisis if it is required to refund tariffs collected from other countries, particularly China, which could lead to a severe depletion of U.S. fiscal resources [3][5]. - Trump has indicated that if the U.S. is forced to refund these tariffs, it could result in the country being downgraded to a "third-rate nation" [3][5]. - The U.S. trade deficit with China has reportedly decreased by over $80 billion, but the deficit with other Asian countries has increased by 10%, indicating that Chinese goods are still entering the U.S. market through other channels [5][7]. Group 2: Trade Dynamics - Despite claims of reduced imports from China, the actual demand for Chinese goods remains strong, as evidenced by China's record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025 [7][11]. - The U.S. is attempting to manipulate financial markets by pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could lead to a devaluation of the dollar and impact global wealth distribution [9][11]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. has taken aggressive actions against China, including pressuring Panama to cancel contracts with Chinese companies, which raises concerns about the integrity of international agreements [11][12]. - This behavior reflects a broader strategy by the Trump administration to contain China's growth and influence globally, which could lead to increased tensions and potential conflict [12][13]. - The U.S. is perceived as undermining international cooperation by disregarding established contracts, which could create a climate of distrust among global trading partners [12][14].

巴拿马没收李嘉诚两个港口，原因到底是什么？李嘉诚损失有多大？最新消息，巴拿马法院最新裁定，李嘉诚旗下的公司在续约港口运营权的时候存在违宪 的行为，同时还存在拖欠各类税款、社会保障金的问题，当年承诺的10亿美元投资也没有达标。 2024年巴拿马现任总统穆利诺上台了，这个家伙其实就是巴拿马版的特朗普。对长江和记下手之前，他也曾经对加拿大的公司下手。他倡导就是巴拿马至上 的主义。 于是穆利诺上台之后，他们就开始对长和进行的调查。这事巴拿马办得也是很聪明，他们没有之前用行政收回的形式，而是进行了审计调查，最后是说你违 宪了。这样就让我们要去国际仲裁法院打官司也变得非常难，因为人家是依据本国宪法进行的没收行为。 长和公司则说他们当年续约依据的是巴拿马的《港口法》。可是在任何一个国家《宪法》肯定是最大的。人家的《宪法》里面早就规定，国家的战略资源必 须公开招标。这就意味着李嘉诚当年续约的时候，确实存在程序上的问题。这事有没有可能是之前巴拿马故意挖的一个坑呢？其实人家也不需要。虽然你在 我们这里投资了，但是投资你也在运营权里面回收了，而且还赚到更多。如果当时巴拿马不想长和继续经营，那完全可以不给他们续约。 搞懂这些问题之前 ...

澳方刚扭亏为盈就变脸？1999年，澳大利亚的北领地政府面对一片亏损的达尔文港，最终决定将其以5.06亿澳元（约24亿人民币）的价格租赁给中资岚桥集 团，租期99年，相当于将这个烫手山芋交给中国人。那时，谁也没想到，这个由澳方自己经营得一团糟的港口，竟然在中国的管理下焕发了新生。十年间， 岚桥集团砸钱改善基础设施，优化管理，拓展客户，硬生生将这个一直处于亏损中的港口拉回了盈利轨道。 然而，就在港口刚刚实现扭亏为盈的关键时刻，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯却突然翻脸。2024年1月28日，他公然表态要将达尔文港收回，理由竟然是符合国 家利益。需要指出的是，这份租约是通过公开竞标拿下的，完全符合澳大利亚的法律和市场规则，属于明确的商业承诺。然而现在，才履约十年，澳方就想 提前88年撕毁合同，这种操作简直堪比你帮邻居把荒地种成良田，丰收时他直接锁门把你赶走，这一幕令人咋舌。 芒果粉序这事儿真是让人活久见！全球各国都在忙着合作共赢，唯独澳大利亚偏要逆流而上，做出让人大跌眼镜的操作：中国出资24亿人民币帮助盘活达尔 文港，结果港口刚刚盈利，澳方就宣告要收回。这一波摘桃子式的毁约操作，连俄罗斯媒体都看傻了：这不是什么护主权，简直就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Panama Supreme Court ruled that the contract of Hong Kong's CK Hutchison Holdings (referred to as "CK Hutchison") for operating two ports near the Panama Canal is unconstitutional, leading to significant backlash from CK Hutchison, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Hong Kong government [1][2]. Group 1: Legal and Contractual Issues - The ruling stems from an audit initiated by Panama's Office of the Comptroller General, which indicated that the contract caused Panama to lose over $1 billion in tax revenue [1]. - CK Hutchison's subsidiary, Panama Ports Company, had originally obtained approval from the Panamanian government in January 1997 for a 25-year concession to operate Balboa and Cristobal ports, which was extended for another 25 years until 2047 under an automatic renewal clause [1]. - The Panama Supreme Court's decision has been described as a significant setback for CK Hutchison, which has operated these ports for a long time [1]. Group 2: Responses from Stakeholders - The Hong Kong government expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition to the ruling, urging the Panamanian government to respect contractual agreements and ensure a fair business environment for local enterprises [2]. - CK Hutchison's Panama Ports Company stated that the court's ruling contradicts the principles of good faith and breaches the spirit of the contract, reserving the right to pursue legal action [2]. - The Panamanian President, Laurentino Cortizo, announced discussions with Maersk to temporarily take over the operations of the two ports following the court's ruling [3]. Group 3: Implications for Future Operations - The Hong Kong government warned that the ruling could severely damage the business environment and investor confidence in Panama, urging local enterprises to reassess their current and future investments in the region [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that China would take all necessary measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [3].