金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，京东方精电(00710)将于三月中旬公布2025年下半年/2025年业绩。该机构 预估其2025年收入/净利润为145.33亿/3.85亿港元（同比增长+8%/-3%），这意味着2025年下半年预计收 入/净利润为78.63亿/2.05亿港元（同比增长+8%/-10%），主要拖累因素包括国内去库存压力、越南/成 都新工厂良率以及系统业务盈利能力。 展望2026年，该机构看好京东方精电的盈利复苏，支撑因素包括海外份额提升、越南产能爬坡、成都工 厂及系统业务的利润率改善。考虑到2025年下半年盈利压力、更高的折旧成本以及系统业务利润率改善 较慢，该机构将2025-27年每股收益预测下调了5-7%。基于相同的14.0倍2026财年预估市盈率，该机构 将目标价调整至8.4港元（前值：8.84港元）。维持"买入"评级。 金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，京东方精电(00710)将于三月中旬公布2025年下半年/2025年业绩。该机构 预估其2025年收入/净利润为145.33亿/3.85亿港元（同比增长+8%/-3%），这意味着2025年下半年预计收 入/净利润为78.63亿/2.05亿港元（ ...

招银国际发布研报称，预测受高基数影响，贝壳-W去年第四季收入将按年下跌28.5%至222亿元人民币 (下同)，计及一次性成本控制措施后，预测季度非通用会计准则(non-GAAP)净利润为4.27亿元，non- GAAP净利润率料达1.9%。 但该行强调，仍看好贝壳拥有强大的技术能力、优质的服务质量以及成熟的经纪人合作网络，有望在房 屋交易业务中扩大市场份额，预期2026年集团对核心房产交易业务推行成本优化措施，加上新业务盈利 改善，将推动盈利复苏，预计2026年全年non-GAAP净利润达70亿元，较2025年预测达49亿元按年增长 约42%。 智通财经APP获悉，贝壳-W(02423)盘中涨超10%，截至发稿，涨9.36%，报48.14港元，成交额3.19亿港 元。 消息面上，2月13日，恒生指数公司宣布截至2025年12月31日的恒生指数系列季度检讨结果，恒生中国 企业指数加入贝壳-W等成份股。变动将于2026年3月6日(星期五)收市后实施并于2026年3月9日(星期一) 起生效。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on market liquidity [2] - In Q3 2025, A-share listed companies showed a significant recovery in profitability, with an approximate year-on-year growth of 11%, marking the strongest performance in the past two to three years [3] - The continuation of this profitability recovery in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, along with potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, could extend the upward momentum in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Cheung Kong is entering a phase of moderate profit recovery, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% over the next three years, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 68 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The stock price fell by 4.6% on the previous Friday due to the Panama Supreme Court ruling that declared Cheung Kong's port concession in Panama unconstitutional [1] - The two Panama ports contribute less than 1% to Cheung Kong's EBITDA, indicating limited impact from the ruling [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The ruling is seen as politically sensitive but may facilitate consensus among various stakeholders, including Blackstone and the US and Chinese governments, regarding the global port sale plan valued at HKD 110 billion [1] - The potential exit of Panama from the port sale may lead to a different structure for the sale, possibly involving multiple buyers instead of a single consortium [1] Group 3: Value Release Strategies - Cheung Kong is exploring other avenues to unlock value, including potential retail business spin-offs and the listing of its telecommunications business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Cheung Kong is entering a mild profit recovery phase, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% over the next three years, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 68 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The stock price fell by 4.6% on the previous Friday due to a ruling by the Panama Supreme Court declaring Cheung Kong's port concession in Panama unconstitutional [1] - The two ports in question contribute less than 1% to Cheung Kong's EBITDA, indicating limited impact on overall financial performance [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - Despite the negative headline, the ruling is not expected to jeopardize the HKD 110 billion global port sale plan, as these ports are politically sensitive [1] - The potential exit of Panama from the plan may facilitate consensus among various stakeholders, including Blackstone and the US and Chinese governments, although the final structure or scale may differ from the original plan [1] - Cheung Kong is exploring other avenues to unlock value, including a potential retail business spin-off and a listing of its telecommunications business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Cheung Kong's stock price fell by 4.6% last Friday due to the Panama Supreme Court ruling the company's port concession unconstitutional, but the impact is limited as these ports contribute less than 1% to Cheung Kong's EBITDA [1] Group 1 - The Panama Supreme Court's ruling is not unexpected as discussions regarding this issue began in early 2025 [1] - Cheung Kong is exploring other avenues to unlock value, including potential retail business spin-offs and telecommunications business listings [1] - Morgan Stanley believes Cheung Kong is entering a phase of moderate earnings recovery, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% over the next three years [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on Cheung Kong with a target price of HKD 68 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mengniu Dairy (02319) is experiencing a near 3% increase in stock price, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for recovery in profitability in 2023 [1] Group 1: Price Trends - As of January 15, the average price of fresh milk is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram, with raw milk prices at levels last seen in October 2010 [1] - Since the second half of 2025, raw milk prices have fluctuated between 3.02 and 3.04 yuan per kilogram, indicating a sustained low price environment [1] - The price for culling mother cows is 19.93 yuan per kilogram as of January 23, reflecting a 2.5% increase since the beginning of the year, suggesting a gradual shift in industry supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Citigroup's report indicates that among large consumer staple companies in China, Mengniu Dairy is expected to show a more significant cyclical profit recovery compared to its peers this year [1] - The group anticipates sales to recover to high single-digit growth from January to February, with an overall expected growth of 5% for the year [1] - With raw milk prices stabilizing mid-year and positive operating leverage alongside a low comparative base, the company's operating profit margin is projected to expand again this year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the strengthening of the euro against the dollar is becoming a focal point as investors seek to diversify their asset allocation away from the US, which may cast a shadow over European stock markets [1] - Citigroup strategists indicate that the ongoing appreciation of the euro will reinforce a neutral outlook on European equities due to recent transatlantic tensions and tariff uncertainties that have weakened short-term investment prospects [1] - According to Citigroup's estimates, a 10% increase in the euro against the dollar could lead to a reduction of approximately 2% in the earnings per share of European companies [1] Group 2 - The sectors most likely to be impacted by the euro's appreciation include commodities, food and beverage, healthcare, luxury goods, and the automotive industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for a challenging earnings season for luxury goods manufacturers, with geopolitical tensions and uncertain consumer demand in China impacting stock performance, leading to an 8.1% decline in a basket of luxury stocks under Goldman Sachs this year, erasing much of the gains from the previous two quarters [1][3] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - LVMH is set to release its fourth-quarter results, which will serve as a test for the overall industry, with Kering SA and Hermes International also scheduled to report earnings soon [3] - Analysts expect an average decline of 6.1% in fourth-quarter earnings for LVMH, Hermes, Kering, and Moncler, significantly underperforming the MSCI Europe index's expected growth of 1.3% during the same period [3] - The key focus for this earnings season is whether these companies can express confidence in achieving a profit rebound by 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The luxury sector has been viewed as "Europe's large tech stocks" due to their size, rapid growth, and robust business models, but overall performance has lagged behind the market since rising interest rates and weakening demand in China began in 2022 [3] - Recent easing of tariff pressures, particularly after Trump abandoned plans for tariffs related to Greenland, has provided some relief to the industry, with North America expected to be a significant growth driver this year [4][10] - Analysts note that the luxury sector's recovery is crucial, with expectations of a 5% revenue growth for the industry this year, although a decline of 1% is anticipated from 2023 to 2025 [7] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Valuation - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday is a critical sales period for luxury goods, allowing executives to comment on observed trends during earnings calls [10] - Despite a slight recovery in market sentiment and early signs of consumer recovery in China, high-end brands are expected to perform better than entry-level brands in 2025, while fashion-forward and entry-level luxury brands face long-term demand challenges [10] - Investor caution is attributed to high valuations, with luxury stocks trading at a 74% premium over the Stoxx Europe 600 index, despite a recent decline in expected price-to-earnings ratios [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the equity market last week (2026.01.19 - 2026.01.23), under the environment of continuous regulatory policy suppression and abundant liquidity, the market structure was highly differentiated. Weight - stocks in consumption, medicine, and finance declined significantly due to large - scale ETF redemptions by policy funds, while the growth direction was active, and the commercial space sector regained strength after adjustment. As the earnings period begins, the market may rotate towards profit recovery and valuation repair. With the in - depth implementation of anti - involution policies, the investment growth rates of various industries have turned negative, implying future supply contraction, while demand stabilizes under the background of fiscal stimulus and economic recovery. This shift in the supply - demand contradiction consolidates the performance inflection points of leading companies in cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also drives the rise of sectors with price - increase logic like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and coal [2][10][12]. - In the fixed - income market last week, short - term bond yields rose, and long - term yields fell. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3.95BP to 1.28%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.26BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield fell 1.65BP to 2.29%, narrowing the term spread. Some funds entered the bond market for safety as the stock market cooled. The central bank governor's statement about potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, along with positive news from the Ministry of Finance and good 7 - year Treasury bond issuance results, contributed to the narrowing of the term spread and the decline of long - term interest rates. There is support for the bond market sentiment, and there are opportunities to capture band trading in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Index performance: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the CSI 300 fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.34%. The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 27,972 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [10]. - ETF funds: Overall, ETF funds showed a net outflow trend last week. The CSI 300ETF had the most significant share reduction, with 49.603 billion shares less in the past week. The CSI 1000, SSE 50, SSE STAR 50, and CSI A500 also had share reductions of 23.3 billion, 11.5 billion, 9.6 billion, and 7.9 billion respectively. Since January 15, patient funds have continuously redeemed a basket of ETFs, and during this period, some individual stocks with high weight in the index and actively priced by funds performed better. The market trading volume has shrunk from around 4 trillion to around 2.5 trillion, indicating that policy goals have achieved some results. Future market - overheating adjustment methods may focus on cracking down on hot money, relaxing IPOs, and executive share - sales, and the impact of ETF redemptions on the market may weaken marginally [11]. - External factors: The latest US economic data remains resilient, and the November PCE inflation data is in line with market expectations, with no obvious signs of inflation rebound. This week, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest - rate meeting, and the market will focus on the meeting and the earnings reports of large technology companies, especially on performance guidance and the sustainability of profit realization under high valuations. Overseas geopolitical conflicts are also an important short - term uncertainty factor, and market risk - aversion sentiment will remain before the situation in Iran is resolved [11]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Domestic bond market: Last week, short - term bond yields in the domestic bond market rose, and long - term yields fell, narrowing the term spread. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3.95BP to 1.28%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.26BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield fell 1.65BP to 2.29%. Some funds entered the bond market for safety as the stock market cooled. Positive factors such as the central bank governor's statement on potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the Ministry of Finance's press conference, and good 7 - year Treasury bond issuance results contributed to the narrowing of the term spread and the decline of long - term interest rates. There is support for the bond market sentiment, and there are opportunities to capture band trading in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3][13]. - US Treasury yields: Last week, US Treasury yields fluctuated. The 1 - year US Treasury yield fell 2BP to 3.53%, the 2 - year yield rose 1BP to 3.60%, and the 10 - year yield remained flat at 4.24%. Trump's remarks about Greenland led to European selling of US Treasuries and a rise in yields, but his subsequent attitude reversed the trend. US Treasuries will likely continue to fluctuate in the future, with increased unpredictability [14]. - REITs: Last week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 2.17% to 1047.51 points, and all types of REITs closed higher, with data centers, consumption, and warehousing leading the gains. In the primary market, 5 public REITs withdrew or terminated, including 4 initial projects and 1 expansion project [14][15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics On January 23, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Guidelines for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds," and the Asset Management Association of China issued the "Operation Rules for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds." The official versions are generally consistent with the draft versions, with some adjustments including clarifying restrictions on benchmark changes, exempting money - market funds from disclosing performance - benchmark comparisons, and modifying the requirements for long - term performance evaluation by fund evaluation institutions [16]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. It selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability within value, balanced, and growth styles, and allocates them according to the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [20][21]. 3.2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: It includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [24]. - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: It selects 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [24]. - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: It aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies and select "dark - horse" stocks. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [27]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index (with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample, considering factors such as relative benchmark index win - rate, product drawdown, style stability, and overall performance competitiveness, and selects 15 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [30][31]. - Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC consumption - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31][32]. - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC technology - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35]. - High - End Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC high - end manufacturing - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40][41]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC cyclical - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 5 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [43][44]. 3.2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and passive index - bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [47]. 3.2.5 Pure - Bond Index - Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while controlling drawdown. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [50]. - Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions. The performance benchmark is not clearly stated in a simple formula in the text [52]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income + Index - Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income + funds with an equity center (considering convertible bond and stock positions) of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and holding experience. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing the risk - return ratio and performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing the risk - return ratio and performance elasticity. It selects funds with stable bond - end returns, no credit - downgrading, and strong stock - selection ability on the equity end. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects bond funds with an average convertible - bond investment proportion of not less than 60% in the latest period and not less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system from the fund product, fund manager, and fund company dimensions, considering factors such as long - and short - term returns, drawdown, risk - adjusted returns, and the manager's timing and bond - selection abilities, and selects 5 funds to form the index [64]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions. The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets, and investment targets include Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and US dollar bonds [67]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type. The underlying assets of REITs are mainly mature, high - quality, and stable - operating infrastructure projects, with relatively clear cash - flow expectations and limited unit - net - value volatility [68].