BMO分析师约翰·麦克纳尔蒂指出，关键大宗商品市场的基本面恶化程度已超出此前预期，限制了该公 司在2026或2027年实现实质性盈利复苏的可能性。分析师补充称，尽管管理层努力改善资产负债表，但 这些状况可能继续对利安德巴塞尔的股价构成压力。 智通财经APP获悉，BMO Capital Markets将其对利安德巴赛尔(LYB.US)的股票评级由"与大盘持平"下调 至"跑输大盘"，并警告称不断加剧的大宗商品和财务压力可能持续拖累这家化工集团直至2026年。 BMO对该股的目标价由48美元下调至36美元，并表示该估值反映了与大宗商品需求疲软、利润率承压 以及短期缺乏改善催化剂相关的持续挑战。 据悉，利安德巴赛尔成立于2000年，是全球最大的聚丙烯生产商和聚烯烃工艺领导者，产品涵盖环氧丙 烷衍生物、生物燃料及聚丙烯化合物，广泛应用于汽车、电子电器、包装和医疗等领域。 管理层近期采取了更为保守的财务立场，BMO认为这为潜在股息削减提供了支持，旨在增强自由现金 流并改善信用指标。但分析师同时指出，这些防御性措施可能难以抵消该业务面临的更广泛结构性阻 力。 ...

Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's (01929.HK) performance for the first half of the fiscal year 2026 (April 1 to September 30, 2025) fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price on November 26, with a decline of over 7% during trading [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the fiscal year was HKD 38.99 billion, a slight decrease of 1.07% year-on-year, which was below the market estimate of HKD 40.19 billion [2] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was HKD 2.534 billion, showing only a 0.1% increase compared to the same period last year, also missing the analyst forecast of HKD 2.63 billion [2] - Chow Tai Fook's gross profit margin narrowed by 0.9 percentage points to 30.5% year-on-year, attributed to limited increases in gold prices affecting retail product margins [2] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - High gold prices have led to a noticeable change in consumer purchasing behavior, with customers showing hesitation in buying heavier gold products and preferring lower-priced jewelry or affordable alternatives [2] - The revenue structure reflects this trend, with a 9.3% year-on-year increase in revenue from priced jewelry, while revenue from gold jewelry based on weight declined by 3.8% [2] Policy Environment - Concerns regarding Chow Tai Fook are also linked to changes in the policy environment, particularly the cancellation of gold tax incentives on November 1, which may increase consumer costs for gold and pressure retail margins [3] Management Outlook - Despite facing short-term challenges, Chow Tai Fook's management remains optimistic about a recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, raising the gross profit margin guidance to 31% to 32% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [3] - Analysts from institutions like Bank of America believe that the worst period for same-store sales growth may have passed, and business transformation efforts are expected to support profit recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for Chow Tai Fook (01929) from HKD 17.5 to HKD 17.6, reflecting a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for the fiscal year 2027, while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the continuous improvement in same-store sales that may support a valuation reassessment [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026, Chow Tai Fook reported a net profit of HKD 2.5 billion, which is roughly flat year-on-year and in line with expectations [1] - Revenue for the same period was HKD 39 billion, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, which was 3% lower than the bank's expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first half was 30.5%, below the expected 31.3%, but partially offset by a reduction in the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) ratio to 14%, which was lower than the anticipated 15.3% [1] Group 2: Management Guidance - Management has raised the full-year gross margin guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to between 31% and 32%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points, compared to the previous expectation of a decline of 0.8 to 1.2 percentage points [1] - The operating profit margin guidance has also been increased to between 18% and 19%, suggesting a year-on-year rise of 1.6 to 2.6 percentage points, whereas the prior expectation was a decline of 0.6 to 1 percentage point [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Following the sales trends from October to mid-November and the better-than-expected profit margin guidance, Bank of America Securities has raised its net profit forecasts for Chow Tai Fook for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 6% and 1%, respectively, to HKD 8.7 billion and HKD 8.8 billion [2] - The bank believes that the management's guidance on same-store sales growth is slightly conservative and sees potential for upward adjustments, asserting that the worst period for same-store sales decline has likely passed [2] - Initiatives aimed at business transformation may support a recovery in profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant rebound after a period of sharp decline, indicating a critical moment for investors to test their rationality and determination [1] Market Performance - Last week, the A-share market saw its largest single-week decline since the 3040-point rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 2% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4% [3] - On Monday, all three major indices showed slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05% to 3836.77 points, the Shenzhen Component up 0.37% to 12585.08 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.31% to 2929.04 points [3] - Trading volume significantly decreased, with a total turnover of 17,278 billion, down by 2,379 billion from the previous trading day [3] Market Drivers - The rebound is driven by three main factors: improved external environment, enhanced institutional confidence, and supportive policy measures [7] - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have alleviated concerns about global liquidity tightening, with a 71% probability of a rate cut expected in December [7] - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about Chinese assets, predicting a continuation of the bull market driven by a shift from valuation expansion to profit recovery [7] - Structural risks within the market have been effectively mitigated, with the concentration of trading volume dropping to around 40% and the proportion of stocks at historical highs decreasing to 12% [7] Sector Highlights - Key market hotspots include anti-Japanese themes, AI applications, and commercial aerospace, with significant movements in these sectors [5] - The AI application sector received strong momentum from both domestic and international positive news, including updates from Google and the rapid success of the Ant Group's app [5] Investor Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive approach while selectively positioning themselves in the market [11] - Conservative investors should consider reducing holdings in high-priced stocks and focus on undervalued sectors such as banking, insurance, and essential consumer goods [11] - Balanced investors may employ a "buy low, sell high" strategy, targeting technology stocks and sectors with reasonable valuations [11] - Aggressive investors should maintain a strict position limit of 30% and focus on high-quality stocks that have seen significant declines [11] Future Opportunities - The current market recovery window presents opportunities in high-growth sectors aligned with profit recovery, particularly in quality technology stocks and cyclical sectors benefiting from economic recovery [13] - Investors are encouraged to focus on stocks with solid performance and reasonable valuations, avoiding impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations [13]

Core Viewpoint - CGS International maintains a "Hold" rating on UOB but lowers the target price from SGD 38.30 to SGD 36.50 due to concerns over the bank's earnings recovery following a significant one-time provision in Q3 2025 to address risks in the US and Greater China commercial real estate sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - UOB recorded a special provision of SGD 479 million in Q3 2025, with credit costs reaching 55 basis points, significantly higher than the bank's previous guidance of 25-30 basis points for the fiscal year [1]. - The increase in provisions is attributed to declining transaction valuations in the US and Greater China commercial real estate markets, necessitating write-downs on loan book asset values [1]. - UOB decided to recognize an additional general provision of SGD 615 million, bringing the total general provision for Q3 to SGD 687 million [1]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast - CGS International has significantly reduced UOB's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, cutting the 2025 fiscal year EPS estimate by 18.8%, and lowering the 2026 and 2027 fiscal year EPS estimates by 13.1% and 10.4%, respectively [2]. - Despite UOB management's positive signals regarding credit costs normalizing in Q4 and FY 2026, market concerns about high credit costs are expected to persist in the short term [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external environment remains complex. The US tariff pressure on China persists, and the "rush to export" trend is unsustainable. However, the weakening of the US dollar's credit foundation eases the passive depreciation pressure on the RMB. In China, the conversion of expectations into reality is evident, but the continuous effect of the "anti - involution" policy on deflation improvement still depends on demand - side cooperation. Corporate profit repair is not yet stable, and the transmission of policies and monetary effects requires time. The current valuation repair process is ahead of the profit recovery slope, and the profit recovery situation is the key to whether the overall market center can rise. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the overall market profitability [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - In September, the domestic A - share market indices continued to rise, with multiple indices hitting new highs this year. Small - cap growth stocks outperformed, followed by large - cap growth stocks, while large - cap value stocks had continuous corrections. The performance of various industries was significantly differentiated, with non - ferrous metals related to precious metals leading the gains, and coal, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals leading the losses. In terms of valuation, there was obvious internal differentiation among stock indices [3] - The basis of the four major stock index futures main contracts mostly remained in a discount state. The trading of the four major stock index futures was highly active, with a convergence at the end of the quarter. IM was the most active, followed by IF and IC with similar activity levels. The overall positions of the four major stock index futures varieties increased, with IM having the largest position scale, followed by IF [3] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - Domestically, in the first half of 2025, the GDP actually grew by 5.3%. The economic growth rate slowed down slightly in the second quarter, with a single - quarter growth of 5.2%. In 2024, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment and real estate development investment were 3.2% and - 10.6% respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the contributions of consumption, investment, and net exports to GDP all increased. After negotiations, the tariff rate was stable at 15%, and external demand maintained resilience [4] - Overseas, at the end of September, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the dot - plot showed a total reduction of about 75bp this year. Due to the large - scale US fiscal deficit caused by the "Big and Beautiful" Act, the US Treasury yield remained high, and the US dollar index fluctuated around the key level of 97. The Fed Chairman paid more attention to the cooling of the US labor market, and the unemployment rate rose in the third quarter. The Fed's strict attitude towards inflation may ease [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land (01109) reported a 6.9% year-on-year decline in core profit for the first half of the year, primarily due to a reduction in one-time gains, but maintained stable interim dividends, indicating robust shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - The profit margin for development properties improved for the first time in years despite the overall profit decline [1] - The contribution from recurring business increased to 60% in the first half of 2025 [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a profit recovery in 2026, driven by the increased contribution from recurring business and improved profit margins from development properties [1] - The valuation benchmark has been shifted to the 2026 forecasted earnings per share, with the target price raised from HKD 32.2 to HKD 35.4, implying a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 times [1] Investment Recommendation - China Resources Land remains the preferred stock for the firm, with an outperform rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land (01109) reported a 6.9% year-on-year decline in core profit for the first half of the year, primarily due to a reduction in one-off gains, but maintained stable interim dividends, indicating robust shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - The profit margin for development properties improved for the first time in years despite the overall profit decline [1] - The contribution from recurring business increased to 60% in the first half of 2025 [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a profit recovery in 2026, driven by the increased contribution from recurring business and improved profit margins from development properties [1] - The valuation benchmark has been shifted to the 2026 forecast earnings per share, with the target price raised from HKD 32.2 to HKD 35.4, implying a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 times [1] Investment Recommendation - China Resources Land remains the preferred stock for the firm, with a rating of outperform [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cat's Eye Entertainment reported a mixed performance in its interim results, with revenue growth but a significant decline in profit, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the period reached approximately 2.472 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [1] - Net profit for the period was 178.5 million yuan, a decrease of 37.3% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit was approximately 235 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [1] Revenue Drivers - The increase in revenue was primarily driven by a rise in entertainment content service income, attributed to a record number of films controlled and distributed by the company in the first half of 2025, along with strong box office performance of certain films [1] Market Analysis - Bank of America Securities noted that Cat's Eye Entertainment's performance met expectations, with robust revenue growth driven by strong box office increases [1] - However, the decline in profit was mainly due to poor box office performance of some films in the second quarter and increased investments in live performances and IP businesses [1] Future Outlook - The firm is optimistic about a recovery in profitability for the second half of the year, citing ongoing market recovery and a rich pipeline of films set to be released [1] - The target price for Cat's Eye Entertainment was raised from 9.3 HKD to 9.7 HKD, reflecting confidence in the growth of the entertainment content service business for the remainder of the year and into next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Greentown China (03900) is adopting a more balanced approach to reduce its land reserve risks, which may slow down its real estate sales growth next year and negatively impact profit recovery due to lower-than-expected gross margin performance [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's valuation is considered too expensive, leading to a downgrade from "Overweight" to "Underweight" with a target price reduction from HKD 11.62 to HKD 8.55 [1] - Greentown China is expected to take longer than anticipated to restore profits to levels seen before the decline in 2022 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Earnings estimates for the group from 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 15%, 35%, and 22% respectively, reflecting weak real estate sales and a slowdown in profit margin recovery [1]