花旗发布研报称，在中国大型消费必需品企业中，预期蒙牛乳业的今年周期性盈利复苏将较同业更为显 著。该行预期，集团销售额将于今年1月至2月恢复至高单位数增长，全年有望增长5%。随着原奶价格 在今年中周期性回稳，加上正面经营杠杆及比较基数较低，公司的经营利润率将于今年重新扩张。 智通财经APP获悉，蒙牛乳业(02319)涨近3%，截至发稿，涨2.68%，报16.13港元，成交额3.12亿港元。 东海证券发布研报指出，截至1月15日生鲜乳均价3.03元/公斤，周环比+0.01元/公斤，原奶价格处于 2010年10月水平。2025年下半年以来，原奶价格维持在3.02-3.04元/公斤震荡，价格持续低位，牧场产 能加速去化。截至1月23日，淘汰母牛价格19.93元/公斤，较年初+2.5%，行业供需拐点逐步到来。此 外，乳制品及牛肉进口政策落地提振国内需求替代，利好2026年肉奶价格。 ...

花旗集团策略师在研究报告中指出，随着投资者寻求分散美国资产配置，欧元兑美元的走强再度成为焦 点，这可能为欧洲股市蒙上阴影。策略师表示，持续的欧元升值将强化对欧洲股市的中性观点，因为近 期跨大西洋的紧张局势和关税不确定性削弱了短期投资前景，并令市场对今年整体盈利复苏产生怀疑。 根据花旗的测算，欧元兑美元每升值10%，可能导致欧洲企业的每股收益减少约2%。花旗补充称，大 宗商品、食品饮料、医疗保健、奢侈品和汽车行业似乎最易受到冲击。 ...

数据显示，LVMH、爱马仕、开云集团和盟可睐(Moncler SpA)第四季度盈利预计平均下降6.1%，远逊 于MSCI欧洲指数同期1.3%的预期增长。本财报季的关键在于，这些公司是否有信心在2026年实现盈利 反弹。 对投资者而言，奢侈品行业能否复苏至关重要。多年来，奢侈品股一直被视为"欧洲的大型科技股"：规 模庞大、增长迅速且商业模式稳健的公司。然而，自2022年利率飙升和中国需求开始减弱以来，奢侈品 股整体表现逊于大盘。 上周，特朗普放弃了因格陵兰岛问题对欧洲国家加征关税，这给该行业带来了一丝喘息之机，缓解了人 们对美国市场销售的担忧。分析人士认为，北美将是今年增长的重要驱动力。 投资者正在为奢侈品制造商即将面临的艰难财报季做好准备。受地缘政治紧张局势加剧和中国消费需求 前景不明朗的影响，高盛旗下一篮子奢侈品股票今年已下跌8.1%，抹去了过去两个季度的大部分涨 幅。分析师此前预测，在经历了两年停滞后，奢侈品行业将在2026年恢复增长，但目前的股价走势令人 担忧。 EFG资产管理公司的基金经理Sam Glover表示："投资者担心预期中的盈利复苏会被进一步推迟。我们 看到，去年第四季度某些奢侈品牌的投机性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the equity market last week (2026.01.19 - 2026.01.23), under the environment of continuous regulatory policy suppression and abundant liquidity, the market structure was highly differentiated. Weight - stocks in consumption, medicine, and finance declined significantly due to large - scale ETF redemptions by policy funds, while the growth direction was active, and the commercial space sector regained strength after adjustment. As the earnings period begins, the market may rotate towards profit recovery and valuation repair. With the in - depth implementation of anti - involution policies, the investment growth rates of various industries have turned negative, implying future supply contraction, while demand stabilizes under the background of fiscal stimulus and economic recovery. This shift in the supply - demand contradiction consolidates the performance inflection points of leading companies in cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also drives the rise of sectors with price - increase logic like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and coal [2][10][12]. - In the fixed - income market last week, short - term bond yields rose, and long - term yields fell. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3.95BP to 1.28%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.26BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield fell 1.65BP to 2.29%, narrowing the term spread. Some funds entered the bond market for safety as the stock market cooled. The central bank governor's statement about potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, along with positive news from the Ministry of Finance and good 7 - year Treasury bond issuance results, contributed to the narrowing of the term spread and the decline of long - term interest rates. There is support for the bond market sentiment, and there are opportunities to capture band trading in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Index performance: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the CSI 300 fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.34%. The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 27,972 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [10]. - ETF funds: Overall, ETF funds showed a net outflow trend last week. The CSI 300ETF had the most significant share reduction, with 49.603 billion shares less in the past week. The CSI 1000, SSE 50, SSE STAR 50, and CSI A500 also had share reductions of 23.3 billion, 11.5 billion, 9.6 billion, and 7.9 billion respectively. Since January 15, patient funds have continuously redeemed a basket of ETFs, and during this period, some individual stocks with high weight in the index and actively priced by funds performed better. The market trading volume has shrunk from around 4 trillion to around 2.5 trillion, indicating that policy goals have achieved some results. Future market - overheating adjustment methods may focus on cracking down on hot money, relaxing IPOs, and executive share - sales, and the impact of ETF redemptions on the market may weaken marginally [11]. - External factors: The latest US economic data remains resilient, and the November PCE inflation data is in line with market expectations, with no obvious signs of inflation rebound. This week, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest - rate meeting, and the market will focus on the meeting and the earnings reports of large technology companies, especially on performance guidance and the sustainability of profit realization under high valuations. Overseas geopolitical conflicts are also an important short - term uncertainty factor, and market risk - aversion sentiment will remain before the situation in Iran is resolved [11]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Domestic bond market: Last week, short - term bond yields in the domestic bond market rose, and long - term yields fell, narrowing the term spread. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 3.95BP to 1.28%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.26BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield fell 1.65BP to 2.29%. Some funds entered the bond market for safety as the stock market cooled. Positive factors such as the central bank governor's statement on potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the Ministry of Finance's press conference, and good 7 - year Treasury bond issuance results contributed to the narrowing of the term spread and the decline of long - term interest rates. There is support for the bond market sentiment, and there are opportunities to capture band trading in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3][13]. - US Treasury yields: Last week, US Treasury yields fluctuated. The 1 - year US Treasury yield fell 2BP to 3.53%, the 2 - year yield rose 1BP to 3.60%, and the 10 - year yield remained flat at 4.24%. Trump's remarks about Greenland led to European selling of US Treasuries and a rise in yields, but his subsequent attitude reversed the trend. US Treasuries will likely continue to fluctuate in the future, with increased unpredictability [14]. - REITs: Last week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 2.17% to 1047.51 points, and all types of REITs closed higher, with data centers, consumption, and warehousing leading the gains. In the primary market, 5 public REITs withdrew or terminated, including 4 initial projects and 1 expansion project [14][15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics On January 23, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Guidelines for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds," and the Asset Management Association of China issued the "Operation Rules for the Performance Comparison Benchmark of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds." The official versions are generally consistent with the draft versions, with some adjustments including clarifying restrictions on benchmark changes, exempting money - market funds from disclosing performance - benchmark comparisons, and modifying the requirements for long - term performance evaluation by fund evaluation institutions [16]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. It selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability within value, balanced, and growth styles, and allocates them according to the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [20][21]. 3.2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: It includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [24]. - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: It selects 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [24]. - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: It aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies and select "dark - horse" stocks. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [27]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index (with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample, considering factors such as relative benchmark index win - rate, product drawdown, style stability, and overall performance competitiveness, and selects 15 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [30][31]. - Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC consumption - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31][32]. - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC technology - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 60% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35]. - High - End Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC high - end manufacturing - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 10 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40][41]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: It classifies funds according to the intersection market value of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of relevant CITIC cyclical - related indices (with an average purity of not less than 50% in the past 3 years or since inception). It constructs an evaluation system in the eligible sample and selects 5 funds to form the index. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [43][44]. 3.2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and passive index - bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [47]. 3.2.5 Pure - Bond Index - Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while controlling drawdown. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [50]. - Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index: It invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions. The performance benchmark is not clearly stated in a simple formula in the text [52]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income + Index - Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income + funds with an equity center (considering convertible bond and stock positions) of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and holding experience. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing the risk - return ratio and performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index: The equity center is set at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing the risk - return ratio and performance elasticity. It selects funds with stable bond - end returns, no credit - downgrading, and strong stock - selection ability on the equity end. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects bond funds with an average convertible - bond investment proportion of not less than 60% in the latest period and not less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system from the fund product, fund manager, and fund company dimensions, considering factors such as long - and short - term returns, drawdown, risk - adjusted returns, and the manager's timing and bond - selection abilities, and selects 5 funds to form the index [64]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions. The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets, and investment targets include Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and US dollar bonds [67]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type. The underlying assets of REITs are mainly mature, high - quality, and stable - operating infrastructure projects, with relatively clear cash - flow expectations and limited unit - net - value volatility [68].

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月3日电（记者 魏雨田）2025年A股行情整体呈现结构性走强态势。在这一背景下，公募 基金显著加大了对上市公司的调研布局力度，2025年累计调研上市公司2434只，调研次数超7.5万次。 对于后市，机构人士表示，AI产业链有望持续担当科技成长领域的核心主线。那些在关键核心技术攻 关中取得实质性突破且在产业应用场景中占据领先优势的龙头企业，仍将是承载行业长期增长预期的核 心标的。 调研全面开花，次数超7.5万次 统计显示，刚过去的2025年，公募机构对上市公司的调研情况呈现"广度全覆盖、深度有聚焦"的特征。 根据公募排排网统计数据，当年累计有165家公募机构投身A股上市公司调研，调研范围覆盖全部31个 申万一级行业，涉及个股数量多达2434只，累计调研次数高达76285次，展现出公募机构对上市公司基 本面研究的高度重视。 电子行业个股在高频调研榜单中表现同样亮眼，成为仅次于机械设备行业的第二大热门领域。在调研次 数排名前十的个股中，电子行业公司占据四席，形成集团式优势。其中，立讯精密以422次调研位列第 二；国内3D视觉感知领域的核心技术与方案提供商奥比中光获332次调研，排名第四 ...

2025年A股行情整体呈现结构性走强态势。在这一背景下，公募基金显著加大了对上市公司的调研布局 力度，2025年累计调研上市公司2434只，调研次数超7.5万次。对于后市，机构人士表示，AI产业链有 望持续担当科技成长领域的核心主线。那些在关键核心技术攻关中取得实质性突破且在产业应用场景中 占据领先优势的龙头企业，仍将是承载行业长期增长预期的核心标的。 调研全面开花，次数超7.5万次 统计显示，刚过去的2025年，公募机构对上市公司的调研情况呈现"广度全覆盖、深度有聚焦"的特征。 根据公募排排网统计数据，当年累计有165家公募机构投身A股上市公司调研，调研范围覆盖全部31个 申万一级行业，涉及个股数量多达2434只，累计调研次数高达76285次，展现出公募机构对上市公司基 本面研究的高度重视。 个股层面，2025年共有169只个股获得公募机构高频关注，单只个股被调研次数均不低于100次，其中30 只个股的调研次数更是突破200次，成为市场关注的核心标的。从具体排名来看，机械设备行业上市公 司汇川技术以497次调研位居榜首，成为当年最受公募青睐的个股。值得注意的是，同为机械设备行业 的中控技术和杰瑞股份也成功跻 ...

BMO分析师约翰·麦克纳尔蒂指出，关键大宗商品市场的基本面恶化程度已超出此前预期，限制了该公 司在2026或2027年实现实质性盈利复苏的可能性。分析师补充称，尽管管理层努力改善资产负债表，但 这些状况可能继续对利安德巴塞尔的股价构成压力。 智通财经APP获悉，BMO Capital Markets将其对利安德巴赛尔(LYB.US)的股票评级由"与大盘持平"下调 至"跑输大盘"，并警告称不断加剧的大宗商品和财务压力可能持续拖累这家化工集团直至2026年。 BMO对该股的目标价由48美元下调至36美元，并表示该估值反映了与大宗商品需求疲软、利润率承压 以及短期缺乏改善催化剂相关的持续挑战。 据悉，利安德巴赛尔成立于2000年，是全球最大的聚丙烯生产商和聚烯烃工艺领导者，产品涵盖环氧丙 烷衍生物、生物燃料及聚丙烯化合物，广泛应用于汽车、电子电器、包装和医疗等领域。 管理层近期采取了更为保守的财务立场，BMO认为这为潜在股息削减提供了支持，旨在增强自由现金 流并改善信用指标。但分析师同时指出，这些防御性措施可能难以抵消该业务面临的更广泛结构性阻 力。 ...

Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's (01929.HK) performance for the first half of the fiscal year 2026 (April 1 to September 30, 2025) fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant drop in its stock price on November 26, with a decline of over 7% during trading [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the fiscal year was HKD 38.99 billion, a slight decrease of 1.07% year-on-year, which was below the market estimate of HKD 40.19 billion [2] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was HKD 2.534 billion, showing only a 0.1% increase compared to the same period last year, also missing the analyst forecast of HKD 2.63 billion [2] - Chow Tai Fook's gross profit margin narrowed by 0.9 percentage points to 30.5% year-on-year, attributed to limited increases in gold prices affecting retail product margins [2] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - High gold prices have led to a noticeable change in consumer purchasing behavior, with customers showing hesitation in buying heavier gold products and preferring lower-priced jewelry or affordable alternatives [2] - The revenue structure reflects this trend, with a 9.3% year-on-year increase in revenue from priced jewelry, while revenue from gold jewelry based on weight declined by 3.8% [2] Policy Environment - Concerns regarding Chow Tai Fook are also linked to changes in the policy environment, particularly the cancellation of gold tax incentives on November 1, which may increase consumer costs for gold and pressure retail margins [3] Management Outlook - Despite facing short-term challenges, Chow Tai Fook's management remains optimistic about a recovery in the second half of the fiscal year, raising the gross profit margin guidance to 31% to 32% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [3] - Analysts from institutions like Bank of America believe that the worst period for same-store sales growth may have passed, and business transformation efforts are expected to support profit recovery [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for Chow Tai Fook (01929) from HKD 17.5 to HKD 17.6, reflecting a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times for the fiscal year 2027, while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the continuous improvement in same-store sales that may support a valuation reassessment [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year ending September 2026, Chow Tai Fook reported a net profit of HKD 2.5 billion, which is roughly flat year-on-year and in line with expectations [1] - Revenue for the same period was HKD 39 billion, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, which was 3% lower than the bank's expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first half was 30.5%, below the expected 31.3%, but partially offset by a reduction in the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) ratio to 14%, which was lower than the anticipated 15.3% [1] Group 2: Management Guidance - Management has raised the full-year gross margin guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to between 31% and 32%, indicating a year-on-year increase of 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points, compared to the previous expectation of a decline of 0.8 to 1.2 percentage points [1] - The operating profit margin guidance has also been increased to between 18% and 19%, suggesting a year-on-year rise of 1.6 to 2.6 percentage points, whereas the prior expectation was a decline of 0.6 to 1 percentage point [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Following the sales trends from October to mid-November and the better-than-expected profit margin guidance, Bank of America Securities has raised its net profit forecasts for Chow Tai Fook for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 6% and 1%, respectively, to HKD 8.7 billion and HKD 8.8 billion [2] - The bank believes that the management's guidance on same-store sales growth is slightly conservative and sees potential for upward adjustments, asserting that the worst period for same-store sales decline has likely passed [2] - Initiatives aimed at business transformation may support a recovery in profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced a significant rebound after a period of sharp decline, indicating a critical moment for investors to test their rationality and determination [1] Market Performance - Last week, the A-share market saw its largest single-week decline since the 3040-point rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 2% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4% [3] - On Monday, all three major indices showed slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.05% to 3836.77 points, the Shenzhen Component up 0.37% to 12585.08 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.31% to 2929.04 points [3] - Trading volume significantly decreased, with a total turnover of 17,278 billion, down by 2,379 billion from the previous trading day [3] Market Drivers - The rebound is driven by three main factors: improved external environment, enhanced institutional confidence, and supportive policy measures [7] - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have alleviated concerns about global liquidity tightening, with a 71% probability of a rate cut expected in December [7] - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about Chinese assets, predicting a continuation of the bull market driven by a shift from valuation expansion to profit recovery [7] - Structural risks within the market have been effectively mitigated, with the concentration of trading volume dropping to around 40% and the proportion of stocks at historical highs decreasing to 12% [7] Sector Highlights - Key market hotspots include anti-Japanese themes, AI applications, and commercial aerospace, with significant movements in these sectors [5] - The AI application sector received strong momentum from both domestic and international positive news, including updates from Google and the rapid success of the Ant Group's app [5] Investor Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive approach while selectively positioning themselves in the market [11] - Conservative investors should consider reducing holdings in high-priced stocks and focus on undervalued sectors such as banking, insurance, and essential consumer goods [11] - Balanced investors may employ a "buy low, sell high" strategy, targeting technology stocks and sectors with reasonable valuations [11] - Aggressive investors should maintain a strict position limit of 30% and focus on high-quality stocks that have seen significant declines [11] Future Opportunities - The current market recovery window presents opportunities in high-growth sectors aligned with profit recovery, particularly in quality technology stocks and cyclical sectors benefiting from economic recovery [13] - Investors are encouraged to focus on stocks with solid performance and reasonable valuations, avoiding impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations [13]