志特转债：强赎 友发集团：预计2025年半年度盈利2.77亿至3.07亿，同比增长151.69%至178.93% 福斯特：预计上半年净利润同比减少49.05% 牧原股份：预计2025年半年度盈利102亿至107亿，同比增长1129.97%至1190.26% 锡振转债：7月14日上市 华辰转债，路维转债：【上市】 关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众号 及作者概不承担任何责任。 集思录(www.jisilu.cn)是一个以数据为本的投资理财社区，专注于新股、可转债、债券、封闭 基金等数据服务。我们的理念是在保证本金安全的前提下，使资产获得稳健增长。 快捷查询： 搜索公众号"jisilu8"添加我们 泰福泵业：公司拟现金收购南洋华诚不低于51%股份 漱玉转债，声迅转债，文科转债：不下修 ...

在生猪价格震动走低的背景下，超两千亿市值的"猪茅"交出了一份惊人的业绩预增报告。 7月9日晚间，牧原股份（002714.SZ）发布了2025年半年度业绩预告，预计上半年实现归母净利润102亿 至107亿元，同比增长1129.97%至1190.26%；实现扣非归母净利润106亿元至111亿元，同比增长 882.95%至929.31%。基本每股收益同步跃升至1.90-2.00元/股，远超去年同期的0.15元/股。 值得注意的是，当前生猪价格仍处在下行区间。牧原股份此前披露的销售简报显示，2025年1-2月商品 猪价格为14.76元/公斤，但到了6月份，价格已下滑至14.08元/公斤，对比去年同期更是下跌20.59%。 对于业绩的大涨，牧原股份解释为，报告期内公司生猪出栏量较去年同期上升导致收入上升，且生猪养 殖成本较去年同期下降。 相关销售数据显示，牧原股份2025年1至6月份，生猪销售累积3839.4万头，较2024年同期的3238.8万 头，同比增长18.54%。销售收入方面，今年上半年为708.68亿元，较去年同期的560.22亿元，同比增长 了26.5%。 成本方面，牧原股份此前发布的投资者活动纪录显示， ...

Group 1 - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote high-quality economic development [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology opened a feedback window for key automotive companies to address issues related to payment cycles for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - Two departments released an action plan for metrology support for industrial productivity development from 2025 to 2030, emphasizing core metrology technologies for integrated circuits [1] Group 2 - Multiple silicon wafer companies raised their prices today, with price increases ranging from 8% to 11.7% for different sizes of wafers, amid slowing terminal demand in the domestic photovoltaic market [1] - BGI terminated the acquisition of 100% equity in Chip Semiconductor [2] - Alibaba completed the issuance of HKD 12.023 billion zero-coupon exchangeable bonds [2] - Jin'an Guoji expects a year-on-year increase of 4700% to 6300% in net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first half of the year [2] - Yandong Micro plans to reduce its stake by 1% through the National Integrated Circuit Fund and Jingguorui [2] - Muyuan Foods anticipates a year-on-year increase of 1130% to 1190% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [2] - Huayin Power experienced a significant short-term stock price increase, exceeding the growth of the industry and the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - Huaguang Huaneng, with no major changes in fundamentals, continues to operate primarily in the environmental protection and energy sectors [2]

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 10.5 billion to 11 billion yuan for the current reporting period, a significant increase of 924.6% to 973.39% compared to the same period last year, which reported a net profit of 1.025 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 10.2 billion and 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1,129.97% to 1,190.26% from last year's 829 million yuan [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of 10.6 billion to 11.1 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, marking an increase of 882.95% to 929.31% from the previous year's 1.078 billion yuan [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be between 1.90 yuan and 2.00 yuan, compared to 0.15 yuan per share last year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The significant improvement in the company's operating performance for the first half of 2025 is primarily attributed to an increase in the number of pigs sold compared to the same period last year, leading to higher revenue [1] - Additionally, the cost of pig farming has decreased compared to the previous year, further contributing to the enhanced profitability [1]

- The industry mainline model uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator to identify leading industries. The construction process involves calculating the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days' returns for 29 primary industry indices, normalizing the rankings, and averaging them to derive the final RSI value. Industries with RSI > 90% by April are likely to lead the market for the year[11][13][14] - The industry rotation model is based on the "Prosperity-Trend-Crowdedness" framework. It includes two sub-models: the industry prosperity model (high prosperity + strong trend, avoiding high crowdedness) and the industry trend model (strong trend + low crowdedness, avoiding low prosperity). Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 14.4%, IR of 1.56, and a maximum drawdown of -7.4%[16][18][22] - The left-side inventory reversal model focuses on industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking. It identifies sectors undergoing a rebound from current or past difficulties. Historical backtesting shows absolute returns of 25.9% in 2024 and excess returns of 14.8% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[28][30][29] - The industry ETF allocation model applies the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework to ETFs. It achieves annualized excess returns of 15.5% against the CSI 800 benchmark, with an IR of 1.81. The model's excess returns were 6.0% in 2023, 5.3% in 2024, and 7.7% in 2025[22][27][16] - The industry prosperity stock selection model combines industry weights from the prosperity-trend-crowdedness framework with PB-ROE scoring to select high-value stocks within industries. Historical backtesting shows annualized excess returns of 20.0%, IR of 1.72, and a maximum drawdown of -15.4%[23][26][16] - The industry prosperity-trend model achieved excess returns of 3.9% in 2025, while the inventory reversal model showed absolute returns of 1.3% and excess returns of -2.1% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks[16][28][30]

西部牧业（300106）公告，公司董事会于2025年7月9日收到董事长李昌胜递交的书面辞职报告。李昌胜 因工作调动，辞去董事长、董事、战略委员会召集人职务。李昌胜原定任期至第四届董事会届满时止， 辞职后不再担任公司任何职务。李昌胜未直接或间接持有公司股份，其直系亲属也未持有公司股份。公 司将尽快完成董事长补选工作。 ...

南农晨读 | 舌尖 上的水产安全_ 南方+_南方plus 【今日关注】 百亿元中央投资 下达！以工代 赈，将发放劳务 报酬45.9亿元 据国家发展改革 委消息，为深入 贯彻4月25日中 央政治局会议关 于稳就业稳经济 推动高质量发展 的决策部署，落 实国务院常务会 议关于扩大以工 代赈支持的工作 要求，发挥以工 代赈在超常规逆 周期调节中的重 要作用，国家发 展改革委日前新 增下达100亿元 中央预算内投 资，开展以工代 赈加力扩围促进 重点群体就业增 收行动，支持26 个省（区、市） 和新疆生产建设 兵团实施1975个 项目，预计发放 劳务报酬45.9亿 元，助力31万名 重点群体稳就业 促增收。 食品采购商风向 标来了！中国副 食流通协会强力 加持大湾区农交 会 7月8日，中国食 品流通领域的重 要行业组织—— 中国副食流通协 会，复函中国乡 村发展协会，确 认将作为"2025 大湾区农产品交 易会暨土特产精 品博览会"（简 称"大湾区农交 会"）的支持单 位。 一颗仙进奉荔 枝，撬动增城基 岗村亿元产业 | 众说百千万⑤ 天未破晓，广州 增城区仙村镇基 岗村的仙进奉生 产基地内，荔农 们两两一组，忙 着 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.13% on July 9, with 17 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by Media and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, which increased by 1.35% and 0.65% respectively [2] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals and Basic Chemicals, which dropped by 2.26% and 0.85% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 38.536 billion yuan, with only three sectors experiencing net inflows: Media (1.055 billion yuan), Retail (864 million yuan), and Construction Decoration (40.34 million yuan) [2] - The Electronic sector saw the largest net outflow, amounting to 7.789 billion yuan, followed by Non-ferrous Metals with 5.412 billion yuan [2] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector rose by 0.65% despite a net capital outflow of 437 million yuan [3] - Out of 103 stocks in this sector, 40 stocks increased, with one hitting the daily limit, while 55 stocks declined [3] - The top three stocks with net inflows were Xinwufeng (31.4665 million yuan), Haida Group (28.3706 million yuan), and Juxing Agriculture (21.9941 million yuan) [3][4] Top Gainers and Losers in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - **Top Gainers**: - Xinwufeng: +0.65%, 4.20% turnover, 31.4665 million yuan inflow [4] - Juxing Agriculture: +0.76%, 4.49% turnover, 21.9941 million yuan inflow [4] - **Top Losers**: - Muyuan Foods: -3.27%, 1.81% turnover, 71.5922 million yuan outflow [5] - Guolian Aquatic Products: -1.76%, 8.74% turnover, 45.2607 million yuan outflow [5]

1 宏源期货有限公司 生猪：反内卷和理论供应收缩支撑7月生猪价格 肖锋波（F3022345）（Z0012557) 目录 第一部分 行情回顾 基本面分析 第二部分 第三部分 未来展望 第一部分：行情回顾 外盘价格高位回落，持仓量和基金净多持仓同比偏高 | | 2025/7/3 | 2025/6/26 | 环比 | 2024/7/3 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CME瘦肉猪主力合约收盘价 | 16,722 | 17.414 | -3.97% | 14.118 | 18.45% | | | 2025/6/24 2025/6/17 | | 环比 | 2024/6/25 | 同比 | | CME瘦肉猪期货合约总持仓 | 375,334 | 380,203 | -1.28% | 263,740 | 42.31% | | 期货和期权基金净多持仓 | 148.869 | 149.490 | -621 | 4.021 | 144.848 | 数据来源：Wind、宏源期货研究所 2 第一部分：行情回顾 期现货震荡偏强，期货涨幅相对更大，基差走弱 | | 2025/ ...

证券代码：600975 证券简称：新五丰 公告编号：2025-034 湖南新五丰股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）现将 2025 年 1-6 月主要经营数据公告如下： 一、主要经营数据 湖南新五丰股份有限公司 2025 年 1-6 月主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 （一）生猪销售情况 1、2025 年 1-6 月公司生猪销售情况 | 主要产品 | 销售量 | 销售量同比增减 | 商品猪销价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （万头） | （%） | （元/公斤） | | 生猪 | 243.33 | 23.44 | 14.77 | 2、2025 年 1-6 月，公司销售生猪数量 243.33 万头，其中：销售商品猪 140.17 万头。 | 月份 | | 生猪销量（万头） | 商品猪销价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当月 | 累计 | （元/公斤） | | 4 月 | 40.81 | 167.48 | 14.82 | | ...