Summary of Smoore International's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Smoore International - **Industry**: Electronic smoking devices and related products Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Q3 Revenue Growth**: Smoore International reported a 27.5% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations, with adjusted profit rising by 4.8% quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - **HNB Product Sales**: The strong performance was driven by robust sales of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products, with expectations of at least 1.2 billion RMB in annual revenue from HNB [3][4] - **Traditional Vaping Products**: The traditional vaping segment also saw significant growth, particularly in Europe, due to the introduction of new products following a ban on disposable e-cigarettes [2][3] Market Dynamics - **European Market**: The European market outperformed overall company growth, driven by regulatory changes and the introduction of new products [2][5] - **U.S. Market Recovery**: The U.S. market is recovering more slowly, but stricter regulations on compliant products are creating opportunities for Smoore's partners, such as British American Tobacco's VUSE brand [5] Strategic Initiatives - **Expansion of HNB Markets**: Smoore is entering more core markets for HNB products, including Poland and Italy, aiming to transition from the initial development phase to a more expansive growth phase [7] - **Collaboration with British American Tobacco**: The partnership with British American Tobacco is seen as a significant growth opportunity, enhancing Smoore's product offerings and market reach [4][10] Product Development - **Medical Nebulization**: Smoore is investing heavily in the medical nebulization sector, with expectations to generate revenue starting in 2026. The company has submitted multiple products for FDA approval [4][11] - **Free Brand WAPER**: The company is increasing market share for its free brand WAPER through enhanced channel coverage and localized operations, despite limited elasticity in this segment [6] Future Outlook - **Profitability Expectations**: While current profits are not exceptionally high, Smoore anticipates improved profitability from 2026 onwards, driven by regulatory changes and market share expansion [9] - **Valuation and Market Potential**: Following recent stock price adjustments, Smoore's valuation is seen as attractive, with a static P/E ratio of 58x for 2025, expected to drop to 39x in 2026 and 29x in 2027, indicating significant future earnings potential [12] Long-term Growth Areas - **Beauty Nebulization**: The beauty nebulization segment is part of Smoore's long-term strategy, expected to follow the medical nebulization developments, with promising growth potential [13] New Business Contributions - **Initial Profit Contributions**: New business segments are expected to have limited profit contributions initially, which is typical for early-stage promotions. The focus is on market share, with profitability expected to improve as sales volumes increase in subsequent years [14] Additional Important Insights - **Production Capacity**: Smoore has automated production capabilities for 2 million devices and plans to increase this to over 5 million, with monthly production of 2 million cartridges [10] - **Market Positioning**: Smoore positions itself as a technology platform, providing differentiated solutions to various tobacco companies, not just British American Tobacco [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue and profit increase in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.5%, and adjusted profit of 444 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [7] - The HNB (Heat Not Burn) segment is expected to become a major growth driver, with substantial sales growth anticipated in Japan and Europe [7] - The ODM+ strategy has shown satisfactory growth due to successful product iterations, with overall growth expected to exceed double digits [7] - The valuation of the company is expected to rise with the introduction of new compliant products and the recent FDA acceptance of a generic drug application for Breo® Ellipta® [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 14.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.395 billion, 1.898 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 11,168 million yuan in 2023, 11,799 million yuan in 2024, 14,200 million yuan in 2025, 16,900 million yuan in 2026, and 19,500 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 20.35% in 2025 [6][8] - The net profit forecast shows a decline in 2024 to 1,303 million yuan, followed by a recovery to 1,395 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 1,898 million yuan in 2026 and 2,368 million yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The company's EPS is projected to be 0.23 yuan in 2025, 0.31 yuan in 2026, and 0.38 yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 64.53x, 47.44x, and 38.02x [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. However, net profit decreased by 23.8% to 809 million yuan, while adjusted net profit remained stable with a slight increase of 0.1% to 1.182 billion yuan [2][3]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) business is expected to significantly contribute to revenue, with the launch of the hilo product in Japan and Poland driving sales growth. The company anticipates double-digit growth in its vaping business, benefiting from regulatory changes in Europe and the U.S. [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.0% to 444 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, slightly down from 11.5% in Q3 2024. Despite the decline in profit margin, the overall performance remains strong, with future profit elasticity expected due to the anticipated growth in HNB product sales and ongoing investments in medical vaping [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts EPS (Earnings Per Share) of 0.22, 0.39, and 0.59 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 67, 37, and 25 times [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.382 billion, 17.486 billion, and 20.589 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.9%, 21.6%, and 17.7% respectively. Net profit is expected to recover, with growth rates of 3.0%, 78.1%, and 52.2% for the same period [9].

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the consumption data for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays in 2025 shows strong performance, driven by longer holiday periods and a high level of domestic and outbound travel [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Overall consumption data reflects a youthful and experience-oriented trend, with notable performance in discretionary categories such as home appliances and outdoor sports [1] - The average daily flow of cross-regional personnel in mainland China from October 1 to 8 increased by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating a robust travel environment [1] - The average spending per trip during the holiday increased by 14.6% year-on-year, attributed to the ongoing recovery of outbound tourism and a rise in long-distance and segmented travel within the country [1] Group 2: Retail Performance - The Ministry of Commerce's monitoring of 78 key business districts showed a year-on-year increase in foot traffic and sales of 4.2% and 4% respectively during the first three days of the holiday [1] - Data from the National Immigration Administration revealed that the average daily number of inbound and outbound travelers exceeded 2 million, marking a 15% year-on-year increase [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - CICC recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from self-indulgent consumption trends, such as trendy toys and e-cigarettes, highlighting companies like Pop Mart (09992), Blucor (00325), and Smoore International (06969) [1] - The report also suggests investing in domestic brands in the beauty and personal care sectors, recommending companies like Mao Geping (01318), Giant Bio (02367), and Shanghai Jahwa (600315) [1] - Attention is drawn to retail sectors that may benefit from supportive domestic policies and seasonal catalysts [1]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969.HK) experienced significant stock price volatility following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, which showed mixed results with high revenue growth but declining net profits [2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Smoore International reported revenue of approximately 4.197 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% [3]. - The company's net profit for the same period was approximately 316.9 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [3]. - Adjusted profit for Q3 was 444.2 million RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.8% [3]. Business Segments - Smoore International operates primarily in two business segments: 1. Business-to-Business (B2B) services, providing electronic vaporization devices and HNB (Heated Not Burn) solutions to global tobacco giants 2. Research, design, manufacturing, and sales of proprietary electronic vaporization products and vaporization beauty products [4]. Revenue Drivers - The revenue growth was attributed to the strong performance of the B2B segment and the proprietary brand business, with significant increases in product shipments and successful launches of new compliant electronic vaporization products [5]. - The proprietary brand business also saw healthy growth due to successful product iterations and increased marketing efforts tailored to local markets [5]. Profitability Challenges - Despite strong revenue growth, Smoore International faces significant pressure on profitability due to rising costs associated with global market expansion, compliance, R&D, and marketing [5]. - Analysts remain cautious about the company's future profit outlook, with expectations of a 40% decline in net profit year-on-year for 2025, despite a projected 20% revenue growth driven by electronic cigarette sales [6].

Group 1: Alibaba Group (阿里巴巴) - Daiwa Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-SW, raising the target price to HKD 205 due to optimistic expectations for Alibaba Cloud's business prospects and long-term gross margin outlook [1] - JPMorgan upgrades Alibaba-SW to "Overweight" and raises the target price to HKD 240, citing the company's stock performance over the past three months and optimistic growth opportunities in cloud revenue and e-commerce synergy [1] Group 2: Gao Xin Retail (高鑫零售) - Macquarie Securities downgrades Gao Xin Retail to a "Neutral" rating and lowers the target price to HKD 1.7, anticipating a decline in same-store sales due to significant subsidies in instant retail and pressure on gross margins [2] Group 3: Budweiser APAC (百威亚太) - CMB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC but lowers the target price to HKD 9.5, noting that the current stock price reflects short-term sales pressure and a potential marginal improvement in Q4 [3] Group 4: Galaxy Entertainment Group (金界控股) - Citigroup maintains a "Sell" rating for Galaxy Entertainment but raises the target price to HKD 5.4, as the company's Q3 gaming revenue significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a 20%-24% increase in profit forecasts [4] Group 5: Sands China Ltd. (金沙中国有限公司) - Haitong International initiates an "Outperform" rating for Sands China Ltd. with a target price of HKD 25.6, highlighting the company's strong market position in Macau and the positive impact of the Londoner project on EBITDA margins [5] Group 6: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (宁德时代) - JPMorgan maintains a "Neutral" rating for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. while raising the target price to HKD 600, based on a valuation adjustment for 2026, despite a projected 20% upside in stock price [6] Group 7: Smoore International Holdings (思摩尔国际) - UBS maintains a "Sell" rating for Smoore International, setting a target price of HKD 13.11, citing rising R&D and sales expenses along with gross margin pressure leading to a projected 40% decline in net profit for 2025 [7] Group 8: Standard Chartered Group (渣打集团) - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Neutral" rating for Standard Chartered Group, raising the target price to HKD 135, expecting a 6% year-on-year growth in adjusted pre-tax profit for Q3 due to strong non-interest income and cost reductions [8] Group 9: Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings (长江基建集团) - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Market Perform" rating for Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings, increasing the target price to HKD 54 based on the latest regulatory asset value and extending the valuation timeframe to 2026 [9][10]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.04%, gaining 11 points to close at 26,840 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Shanghai Electric (02727) surged by 15.72%, with its A-shares hitting the daily limit, driven by positive developments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector [1] - Huahong Semiconductor (01347) climbed 6.75%, reaching a new high as domestic supply chain localization accelerates, with local foundry demand expected to expand rapidly [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) increased by 11%, being a leading copper smelting company in China, with a potential resumption of production at a copper mine owned by First Quantum [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) rose by 8%, as cobalt prices surged over 11% in the previous two days due to strict export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - Hang Seng Bank (00011) jumped 26% following HSBC's recommendation to privatize the bank [1] - Solar stocks saw gains in early trading, with prices in the photovoltaic industry chain continuing to rise in September, particularly in upstream sectors [1] - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks led the gains, with record railway investment progress and the initiation of the "14th Five-Year" railway development planning [1] Group 2 - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw both A and H shares rise, with the overseas debut of its Co-Sight super intelligent system indicating positive growth potential in the enterprise AI market [2] Group 3 - Mixue Group (02097) rose 8.96% despite market trends, making a forward-looking investment in fresh beer brand Fulu, expanding its "tea + coffee + fresh beer" portfolio [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 3.52%, with several constituent stocks like Innovent Biologics (09969) and Sino Biopharmaceutical (01177) experiencing declines of over 6% [3] - Smoore International (06969) dropped over 9%, having fallen more than 30% from its yearly high, with UBS projecting lower earnings than market consensus [3]

Group 1 - Smoore International (06969) has seen a decline of over 7%, reaching a low of HKD 15.85, which is more than a 30% drop from its yearly high of HKD 23.92 [1] - UBS reported that they recently met with the management of Japan Tobacco in Tokyo and held an investor meeting with Smoore's management in Shenzhen [1] - Despite the US increasing efforts to combat illegal e-cigarettes starting in early 2025, feedback from field investigations suggests that the impact of enforcement may weaken due to inconsistent enforcement [1] Group 2 - Chinese customs data indicates a 39% increase in e-cigarette exports in August, suggesting that Chinese e-cigarette exporters are adapting to US enforcement measures [1] - UBS forecasts a 20% year-on-year revenue growth for Smoore International in 2025, primarily driven by e-cigarette sales, but anticipates a 40% decline in net profit due to rising R&D and sales expenses, along with margin pressure [1] - The firm's net profit predictions for 2025-2027 are 18-45% lower than market consensus, maintaining a "Sell" rating with a target price of HKD 13.11 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) has seen a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 30% from its year-to-date high, with a current trading price of 16.08 HKD [1] Company Summary - Smoore International's stock fell over 7%, reaching a low of 15.85 HKD during trading, with a trading volume of 261 million HKD [1] - UBS reported a meeting with Japan Tobacco's management and an investor meeting with Smoore's management in Shenzhen [1] Industry Summary - The U.S. has intensified its crackdown on illegal e-cigarettes since early 2025, but inconsistent enforcement may weaken its impact, as indicated by a 39% increase in e-cigarette exports from China in August [1] - UBS forecasts a 20% year-on-year revenue growth for Smoore International in 2025, driven primarily by e-cigarette sales, but anticipates a 40% decline in net profit due to rising R&D and sales expenses, along with margin pressure [1] - UBS's net profit projections for Smoore International from 2025 to 2027 are 18-45% lower than market consensus, maintaining a "Sell" rating with a target price of 13.11 HKD [1]

Core Insights - The electronic cigarette industry is viewed as a harm-reduction alternative to traditional cigarettes, driven by increasing health awareness and clearer regulatory policies [1] - The industry has developed a complete supply chain, attracting significant investor interest [1] Upstream - The upstream segment includes the supply of core raw materials such as batteries, atomizers, chips, nicotine extracts, and e-liquid components [1] - The technological level of these materials directly impacts product safety and user experience, with atomization cores and battery management chips being the most technologically advanced components [1] Midstream - The midstream involves the design, research and development, and manufacturing of electronic cigarettes [1] - Companies in this segment must possess strong R&D capabilities and quality control systems to meet market demands for safety, taste, and aesthetics [1] - As products evolve towards smart features and adjustable power, technological innovation becomes a key competitive factor [1] Downstream - The downstream segment encompasses brand operation, channel sales, and end-consumer engagement [1] - Brands reach consumers through various channels, including online platforms, specialty stores, and convenience stores, employing marketing strategies to build customer loyalty [1] - The overseas market, particularly in Europe and North America, represents a significant consumer base, with export business accounting for a high proportion of overall sales [1] Regulatory Environment - The electronic cigarette industry is heavily influenced by regulatory policies, with increasing restrictions on flavors, tax policies, advertising bans, and measures to protect minors [2] - Changes in public perception regarding the health risks of electronic cigarettes may also impact market demand [2] - While the industry has a clear supply chain and rapid technological iteration, compliance risks and policy changes require close attention [2]