Core Viewpoint - The textile manufacturing sector experienced a slight increase of 0.22% on November 28, with Xinlong Holdings leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Xinlong Holdings (000955) closed at 7.06, with a rise of 4.90% and a trading volume of 534,200 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 370 million yuan [1]. - Yingfeng Co. (605055) saw a closing price of 9.03, up 3.79%, with a trading volume of 64,400 shares and a transaction value of 57.58 million yuan [1]. - Fengzhu Textile (600493) closed at 7.74, increasing by 2.52%, with a trading volume of 90,900 shares and a transaction value of 69.24 million yuan [1]. - Huasheng Co. (600156) closed at 8.98, up 2.51%, with a trading volume of 105,800 shares and a transaction value of 93.89 million yuan [1]. - Huafang Co. (600448) closed at 3.43, increasing by 2.39%, with a trading volume of 231,400 shares and a transaction value of 78.12 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The textile manufacturing sector saw a net outflow of 138 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 186 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow for individual stocks showed that Huafang Co. (600448) had a net inflow of 12.87 million yuan from institutional investors, while it experienced a net outflow of 3.82 million yuan from speculative funds [3]. - Xinlong Holdings (000955) had a net inflow of 4.32 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 19.84 million yuan from speculative funds [3].

Group 1: Key Insights on Light Industry and Textile Apparel - The潮玩 (trendy toys) industry has a promising outlook, with a projected CAGR of 23.2% from 2019 to 2024, expecting to reach 213.3 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the Z generation's pursuit of personalization and cultural value [2] - The pet industry is expected to grow to 404.2 billion yuan by 2027, supported by factors such as family size reduction and the aging population, with the pet food sector projected to reach 158.5 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The metal packaging sector is experiencing revenue and profit improvements, with a shift towards a "value war" and increased overseas business development, enhancing long-term profitability [2] - The textile manufacturing sector is seeing a gradual recovery in orders as tariff risks diminish, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue changes of +1.44%, -0.75%, and -1.03% respectively [3] - The domestic clothing market is showing weak performance, but policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to boost the sports apparel market, projected to reach 408.9 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - Investment strategies highlight the ongoing consumer focus on emotional value, benefiting industries like trendy toys and pets, while the textile sector is poised for recovery due to stable tariff risks and supportive policies [3] Group 2: Key Insights on Machinery Equipment - In October, China's engineering machinery import and export trade reached 4.844 billion USD, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year, with an average operating rate of 45.56% for the industry [6] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with excavator and loader sales maintaining growth, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and a favorable domestic investment strategy [6] - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, with specific companies like 中联重科 (Zoomlion) and 恒立液压 (Hengli Hydraulic) recommended for "increase" ratings [7] Group 3: Key Insights on Metal Industry - Gold prices are expected to rise due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a projected demand increase from global ETFs and stable industrial demand [8] - Copper supply is anticipated to turn short in 2026, driven by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors and technological advancements, which may support copper prices [8] - Tungsten's strategic value is highlighted by strong demand in high-tech and defense sectors, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated [9] - Cobalt supply is projected to face significant shortfalls due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand from the electric vehicle battery sector expected to rise [9]

Market Overview - The textile manufacturing sector increased by 0.82% compared to the previous trading day, with Yunzhongma leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3864.18, down 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12907.83, up 1.02% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the textile manufacturing sector included: - Yunzhongma (603130) with a closing price of 40.57, up 4.89% and a trading volume of 83,200 shares, totaling 334 million yuan [1] - Wanshili (301066) closed at 16.09, up 4.01% with a trading volume of 109,200 shares, totaling 174 million yuan [1] - Chui Mu Co. (002083) closed at 9.76, up 3.50% with a trading volume of 1.6137 million shares, totaling 1.564 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow - The textile manufacturing sector saw a net inflow of 21.66 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 46.72 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors showing interest while retail investors withdrew funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Yunzhongma experienced a net outflow of 30.38 million yuan from institutional investors, while Wanshili had a net inflow of 23.57 million yuan [3] - Other notable stocks included: - Chui Mu Co. with a net inflow of 22.95 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jiangnan High Fiber (600527) with a net inflow of 10.62 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The textile and apparel sector showed significant upward movement on the 26th, with several companies reaching their daily price limits, indicating strong market interest and potential recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Textile Manufacturing - By 2025, the textile manufacturing and branding sectors faced external pressures, including tariff impacts and macroeconomic challenges, yet leading companies demonstrated strong operational resilience [1] - The gradual easing of tariff disruptions is expected to support long-term growth trends in the manufacturing sector, with positive order outlooks for leading OEMs in 2026, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability [1] - Some leading companies still possess considerable valuation recovery potential, indicating investment opportunities in the manufacturing segment [1] Group 2: Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector can learn from the experiences of overseas leading brands that successfully navigated the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting that local brands may capitalize on operational improvements during the retail recovery phase [1] - The focus on enhancing internal capabilities during downturns may position local brands favorably to benefit from the anticipated retail recovery [1] Group 3: Outdoor Sports Segment - The outdoor footwear and apparel segment is identified as one of the most promising areas within the industry, showing a trend of accelerated growth [1] - In addition to outdoor footwear and apparel, certain outdoor equipment segments are also experiencing high growth cycles, indicating a robust market environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Wanshili has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.01%, while the overall performance this year indicates a 15.44% rise, despite a recent decline over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 24, Wanshili's stock price reached 15.76 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 85.72 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.94%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 3.702 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Wanshili's stock has increased by 15.44%, but it has decreased by 14.16% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" three times this year, with the most recent appearance on May 9, where it recorded a net purchase of 39.21 million CNY [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Wanshili reported a revenue of 519 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.83% to 20.09 million CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 56.75 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 43.29 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Wanshili had 12,700 shareholders, a decrease of 18.69% from the previous period, with an average of 14,880 circulating shares per shareholder, which is an increase of 22.98% [2] - Notably, two funds, CITIC Jiantou Rotation Mixed A and CITIC Jiantou Selected Mixed A, have exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders [3]

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index drop nearly 4% in a week, with the ChiNext Index falling over 6%, affecting more than 4,900 stocks [1][3] - External factors such as the cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, renewed debates over the AI bubble, and geopolitical tensions have contributed to the market downturn, impacting global risk assets [3] - Despite the market's decline, institutional investors have been actively buying, with over 70 billion yuan net inflow into stock ETFs in the past week, indicating confidence among smart money [3] Group 2 - Current valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is around 13.6 times, approaching a "reasonable" level, suggesting that further declines could present buying opportunities [3] - Market sentiment indicators have dropped to yearly lows, and the financing guarantee ratio has returned to early August levels, indicating that panic selling may have subsided [3] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on undervalued assets, particularly in sectors like domestic computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, and industries benefiting from supply-demand improvements due to "anti-involution" policies [4] Group 3 - Companies that can leverage China's manufacturing advantages for global pricing power are expected to thrive, with predictions that 2026 will be a significant year for Chinese enterprises going global [4] - High-dividend assets are recommended as a stabilizing force in a volatile market, with attention on cyclical dividends (coal, chemicals) and potential dividends (railways, environmental protection) [4] - Analysts predict a "low volatility slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 30% upside for the Chinese stock market by 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 2.45% and the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices falling over 3%, is seen as a short-term fluctuation rather than a trend reversal, driven by both external and internal factors [3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The drop below 3900 points is attributed to external pressures such as a 2.15% decline in the Nasdaq and a global sell-off of risk assets, combined with internal issues like weak tech narratives and insufficient economic data [3]. - The current market adjustment is viewed as a release of previously accumulated risks, suggesting that a rapid decline is more likely to establish a market bottom compared to a gradual decline [3]. - Key indicators to monitor for market stabilization include whether trading volume exceeds 2 trillion yuan, the impact of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, and the support level around 3850 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Recommended strategies include focusing on undervalued assets in sectors like semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as textiles and commercial vehicles that are experiencing supply-demand improvements [3]. - Defensive investments in high-dividend sectors are advised to provide a safety net for portfolios during market volatility [3]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain cash reserves and adopt a patient approach to capitalize on market fluctuations for potential excess returns [3].

3 元 3 - 1 - 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、看好全球制造 本期投资提示: -纺织服装行业周报 20251123 相关研究 《 澳毛价格企稳回升，全运会开幕提振户 外运动板块——纺织服装行业周报 20251116》 2025/11/16 《 10 月纺服出口承压,中美磋商利好有望 修复出口链一 -- 纺织服装行业周报 20251110》 2025/11/10 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanqlp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 (8621)23297818× zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。11 月 17 日 ~ 11 月 21 日, SW 纺织服饰指数下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $6.02 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of $280 million, down 16.0% year-on-year. The manufacturing business generated $4.23 billion in revenue, up 2.3% year-on-year, while the retail business saw revenue of $1.79 billion, down 7.9% year-on-year [1][2][5] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - In the first three quarters of 2025, the manufacturing business revenue was $4.23 billion, with a shipment volume of 189 million pairs (up 1.3% year-on-year) and an average selling price (ASP) of $20.88 (up 3.2% year-on-year). In Q3 2025, manufacturing revenue was $1.43 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a shipment volume of 62.7 million pairs (down 5.3% year-on-year) and an ASP of $21.4 (up 3.4% year-on-year) [2][3] - The manufacturing business's revenue by region showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in the U.S. (28.5% share), 11.7% in Europe (27.7% share), and a decrease of 25.9% in mainland China (13.4% share) [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The capacity utilization rate for the manufacturing business was 93% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 18.3% (down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year). The SG&A expense ratio was 10.2% (down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year) [3] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 19.4% (down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), attributed to improved production efficiency and product mix optimization [3] Retail Business - The retail business revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $1.79 billion (down 7.9% year-on-year), affected by a weak retail environment and intensified competition. However, online revenue grew by 13% [4] - In Q3 2025, retail revenue was $520 million, down 6.3% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in October, where revenue was down only 0.7% year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $8.3 billion, $8.8 billion, and $9.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $393 million, $441 million, and $488 million [5][12]

Market Overview - The textile manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 3.03% on November 21, with Furui Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included: - Huasheng Technology (605180) closed at 16.47, up 1.04% with a trading volume of 108,100 shares and a turnover of 177 million yuan [1] - Huali Group (300979) closed at 58.76, down 0.10% with a trading volume of 23,600 shares and a turnover of 140 million yuan [1] - Nanshan Zhishang (300918) closed at 17.68, down 0.45% with a trading volume of 70,100 shares and a turnover of 123 million yuan [1] - Weixing Co. (002003) closed at 10.86, down 1.45% with a trading volume of 69,280 shares and a turnover of 102 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The textile manufacturing sector saw a net outflow of 271 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 264 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Key capital flows for selected stocks included: - Hangmin Co. (600987) had a net inflow of 16.99 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors of 11.55 million yuan [3] - Huasheng Technology (605180) saw a net inflow of 6.12 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 13.32 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Huafang Co. (600448) had a net inflow of 3.63 million yuan from institutional investors, with a slight outflow from retail investors [3]