今天买一件30克的金手镯，如果你去的是某家知名品牌金店，你要付的钱，足够你在银行买45克投资金条。 这不是夸张的对比，而是2026年2月12日国内黄 金市场赤裸裸的现实。 国际金价一夜之间重新站上5100美元，而国内各大金店的价格却仿佛"焊死"在高位，不同渠道之间，一克黄金的价格竟然能相差400 元以上。 农历腊月二十五，春节前的最后一个交易窗口，黄金市场并未因节日氛围而沉睡，反而走出了令人屏息的"高位横盘"行情。 美联储的货币政策成为首要推手。 市场对2026年降息的预期升至78%，尽管官员表态偏谨慎，但美债收益率已开始下跌，美元指数软态毕现。 芝加哥商品 交易所美联储观察工具显示，6月降息25个基点的概率虽从72%降至61%，但资金仍持续流向黄金。 美元指数从2025年初的108跌至98附近，创下八年来最差 表现。 全球央行购金潮构筑了坚实底座。 中国人民银行实现连续15个月增持，1月末黄金储备达7419万盎司。 波兰央行在2025年购入150吨黄金，俄罗斯仅2026年1 月就增持100吨。 世界黄金协会数据显示，2025年全球央行购金量达863吨，95%的央行表示未来一年将继续增持。 新兴市场央行黄金储 ...

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and reporter on commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York [1] - He has covered every futures market traded in the U.S. at various times throughout his career [1] - Jim is the owner of "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets," which provides analytical, educational, and trading advisory services [2] Group 2 - He has worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim is also a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He holds a degree in journalism and economics from Iowa State University [2] Group 3 - Daily updates and technical analysis are provided by Jim on Kitco.com, including both AM and PM roundups [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a stable range, and investors are advised to pay attention to US CPI data. During the long Spring Festival holiday, investors are recommended to hold light positions to avoid risks from overseas market fluctuations. [6] - In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The price center of precious metals still has room to rise, and long - term strategies suggest buying on dips. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **2.11 vs 2.10 Price Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, London gold spot rose 0.8% to $5064.52 per ounce, London silver spot rose 2.7% to $83.45 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.9% to $5088.90 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.9% to $83.23 per ounce, AU2602 rose 0.8% to 1133.00 yuan per gram, AG2602 rose 4.0% to 20505.00 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.8% to 1126.49 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 4.0% to 19949.00 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **2.11 vs 2.10 Spread/Ratio Changes**: The gold TD - SHFE active spread rose 9.2% to - 6.51 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread rose 4.9% to - 556 yuan per kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) rose 8.9% to - 4.16 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) fell 16.2% to - 977 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 3.1% to 55.25, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 2.0% to 61.15, the AU2604 - 2602 spread fell 5.1% to 2.60 yuan per gram, and the AG2604 - 2602 spread fell 23.4% to - 439 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.2 Position Data - **2.10 vs 2.9 Position Changes**: On February 10, compared with February 9, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased 0.03% to 1079.32 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased 0.16% to 16216.45052 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold decreased 14.91% to 214508 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 4.71% to 48904 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions decreased 19.37% to 165604 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased 10.56% to 38883 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 34.22% to 13006 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 9.17% to 25877 contracts. [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - **2.11 vs 2.10 Inventory Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 105072.00 kilograms, the SHFE silver inventory increased 5.79% to 342102.00 kilograms, the COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.18% to 35229811 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased 1.07% to 386273025 troy ounces. [5] 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - **2.11 vs 2.10 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market Changes**: On February 11, compared with February 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell 0.03% to 6.94, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 96.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.86% to 3.45%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.42% to 4.16%, the VIX rose 2.48% to 17.79, the S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 6941.81, and NYWEX crude oil fell 0.34% to 64.20. [5] 3.5 Market Review - On February 11, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.56% to 1130.4 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.88% to 20944 yuan per kilogram. [5] 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical situation has increased, and safe - haven demand and continued gold purchases by global central banks have pushed up precious metal prices. However, the unexpectedly strong US January non - farm payrolls report has shifted the market's expectation of the Fed's first interest rate cut from June to July, strengthening the US dollar index and pressuring precious metal prices. [6] - For silver, the relatively high London spot silver lease rate, the decline in New York inventory, and the low - level inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange limit the downward space of silver prices. But due to the inflow of imported silver into the market and weak pre - holiday market demand, the domestic silver price is continuously at a discount to the overseas price, and the monthly spread of silver futures has also narrowed. [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution to eliminate punitive tariffs on Canadian goods, with a vote of 219 in favor and 211 against, indicating a potential bipartisan shift [3] - The resolution is expected to be reviewed by the Senate, where it has a high likelihood of passing, although it may ultimately be vetoed by President Trump [3] - The tariffs were initially imposed by President Trump in response to Canada's failure to effectively control the export of illegal drugs, including fentanyl [3] Group 2 - In the gold futures market, prices are currently trading around 1126.78 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.09%, and have fluctuated between a high of 1135.94 yuan and a low of 1118.20 yuan [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold futures are showing signs of stabilization, with support above 1120 yuan per gram and potential resistance in the 1130-1140 yuan range [4] - The market is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation pattern, influenced by the volatility of the RMB exchange rate and the evolving expectations of Federal Reserve policies [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strong performance of the U.S. labor market as indicated by the January non-farm payroll data, which exceeded market expectations and impacted market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3] - The January non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly above the market expectation of 70,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% [3] - Average hourly earnings for private sector non-farm employees rose by $0.15 to $37.17, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, also surpassing market expectations [3] Group 2 - The strong non-farm payroll data led to a rapid decline in the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in March dropping from 19.6% to 6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate rose to 94% [3] - Following the release of the non-farm data, U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 50,121.40 points, down 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index down 0.16% [4] - Concerns regarding the AI industry and the cooling of rate cut expectations contributed to the downward pressure on U.S. stocks, with technology stocks particularly affected [4] Group 3 - In contrast to the pressure on U.S. stocks and bonds, precious metals such as gold and silver saw a V-shaped reversal, with gold prices rising from a low of $5,020.07 per ounce to $5,089.36 per ounce [5] - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to safe-haven demand amid ongoing AI industry concerns and a retreat in the U.S. dollar, despite the cooling rate cut expectations [5] - The oil market exhibited a volatile pattern, with Brent crude oil reaching nearly $70 per barrel before retreating due to global demand concerns and a strengthening dollar, ultimately closing at $69.40 per barrel [5] Group 4 - Market focus is shifting towards upcoming U.S. CPI data and statements from Federal Reserve officials to further assess the direction of monetary policy, while ongoing dynamics in the AI industry and geopolitical issues in the Middle East continue to influence market sentiment [6] - The sustained pressure on U.S. stocks and bonds, the momentum of gold and silver prices, and the potential for oil prices to break out of their current volatility remain to be validated by future data and events [6]

Gold and other precious metals, traditionally a hedge against stock volatility, have been swinging drastically in value lately — but the taxes on those investments can be even more jarring to investors. Last month, gold topped $5,000 per ounce and silver breached $100 an ounce for the first time. However, precious-metal prices tumbled to historic daily losses at the end of January, after President Donald Trump's announcement of his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and investment ba ...

Core Viewpoint - The stronger-than-expected January jobs report indicates a robust economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The January jobs report exceeded expectations, reinforcing the notion that the economy is performing strongly [1] - The positive job market data is interpreted as potentially negative news for precious metals, as it may lead to sustained higher yields [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - Despite initial pressure on precious metals due to the prospect of steady interest rates, prices rebounded as investors sought safe-haven assets amid global volatility [1] - The attractiveness of precious metals as a safe haven is highlighted in the context of a fluctuating global landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surpassed $5,000 per ounce, indicating a significant milestone in the precious metals market, but increased volatility is anticipated in the near future [1][2]. Group 1 - The current price of gold is holding above $5,000 an ounce, reflecting strong demand and market dynamics [1][2]. - Analysts predict that while gold has reached this high, the market may experience more fluctuations, suggesting a cautious outlook for investors [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions are highly favorable for precious metals producers, with gold prices reaching $5000 per ounce and silver at $75 per ounce, leading to doubled margins for most companies despite rising operating costs [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Precious metals producers are experiencing significant profit increases due to high metal prices, which have resulted in doubled margins [1]. - Operating costs are on the rise, but the profitability from high metal prices is offsetting these increases for producers [1]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The Investment Doctor emphasizes a diversified portfolio that includes both dividend and growth stocks, particularly in the European small-cap sector [1]. - The investment group European Small Cap Ideas provides exclusive research on investment opportunities in Europe, focusing on high-quality small-cap ideas that offer capital gains and dividend income [1]. - Features of the investment group include two model portfolios, weekly updates, educational content, and an active chat room for discussions on portfolio developments [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the extreme volatility in the precious metals market at the beginning of 2026, characterized by a historic sell-off followed by a record rebound, which is seen as a natural attribute of commodities in a strong bull market [1][3] - The article emphasizes the fundamental difference in asset pricing logic between commodities and the stock market, noting that commodities exhibit a "positive skew," where price increases are accompanied by rising volatility, providing opportunities for traders to construct asymmetric risk-reward profiles [4][1] - Current technical observations indicate that silver is stabilizing around $81.21 per ounce and gold above $5038, with the recent sharp corrections viewed as a healthy market adjustment that helps to digest early leverage positions [4][2] Group 2 - Despite rumors of institutional fund withdrawals, data shows that related gold mining fund products, such as those under YieldMax, maintained positive net subscriptions during price declines, indicating that institutional investors view short-term volatility as a buying opportunity [5][2] - Long-term, gold's status as a store of value remains irreplaceable, with current gold requirements for purchasing median housing being lower than in the 1960s, underscoring gold's inflation-hedging superiority [5][3] - The article argues that in the context of global debt monetization and ongoing currency devaluation, the "safe haven" logic of precious metals remains robust, and short-term noise should not overshadow the strategic significance of long-term allocations [5][3]