Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade has shown resilience and vitality in the first five months of the year, with a total trade value growth of 2.5% year-on-year, and exports increasing by 7.2% [2][3] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first five months, China's total goods trade value increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.2% [2] - Emerging markets contributed significantly to trade growth, with imports and exports to Belt and Road countries increasing by 4.2%, ASEAN by 9.1%, and Africa by 12.4% [2] - The export of high-tech and high-value-added products has strengthened, with mechanical and electrical products' exports rising by 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports [2] Group 2: Trade Dynamics - The vitality of foreign trade entities is evident, with private enterprises' imports and exports growing by 7%, making up 57.1% of total trade [3] - Foreign-funded enterprises have maintained growth for four consecutive months, with the number of foreign enterprises engaged in trade increasing to 73,000 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Ministry of Commerce aims to expand high-level openness and respond to external uncertainties with high-quality development [3] - The implementation of the "Ten Partnership Actions" announced at the China-Africa Cooperation Forum is expected to enhance economic cooperation with African countries [5][6] Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The first meeting of the U.S.-China economic and trade consultation mechanism discussed the consensus reached during the June 5 call between the two heads of state, making progress on mutual economic concerns [4][8] - China opposes unilateral tariff measures and urges the U.S. to adhere to WTO rules for stable and sustainable economic relations [4]

Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.8% [1] - In May alone, the total goods trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, with exports at 2.28 trillion yuan (6.3% increase) and imports at 1.53 trillion yuan (2.1% decrease) [1] Trade Composition - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for 60% of total exports, with a value of 6.4 trillion yuan, marking a 9.3% increase [1] - Key export items included automatic data processing equipment (3.9% growth), integrated circuits (18.9% growth), and automobiles (6.6% growth) [1] - Major imported commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and coal saw price declines, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased [1] Trade Methods - General trade and processing trade both experienced growth, with general trade reaching 11.51 trillion yuan (0.8% increase) and processing trade at 3.21 trillion yuan (6.2% increase) [2] - The bonded logistics trade method also grew, with a total of 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% increase [2] Business Entities - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises saw increases in import and export values, with private enterprises reaching 10.25 trillion yuan (7% growth) and foreign-invested enterprises at 5.21 trillion yuan (2.3% growth) [2] - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total foreign trade, an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Economic Context - The resilience of China's foreign trade amidst challenges is attributed to several factors, including substantial progress in high-level Sino-U.S. economic talks and effective policy measures that have boosted the confidence of foreign trade enterprises [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade showed resilience in the first five months of the year, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1] Trade Performance - Exports increased by 7.2% while imports decreased by 3.8% in the first five months [1] - In May, the total trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3% and imports declining by 2.1% [1] - The general trade method accounted for 64.2% of total foreign trade, with a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] Key Export and Import Products - Mechanical and electrical products remained the main export category, with a value of 6.4 trillion yuan, a 9.3% increase, making up 60% of total exports [1] - Notable growth in specific products included industrial robots (55.4%), electric vehicles (19%), integrated circuits (18.9%), and construction machinery (10.7%) [1] - Major commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and coal saw a decline in import prices, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased [1] Trade Partners and Market Dynamics - Private enterprises were the largest trading entities, with a total import and export value of 10.25 trillion yuan, a 7% increase, accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [2] - The top three trading partners were ASEAN, the EU, and the US, with trade values of 3.02 trillion yuan (up 9.1%), while trade with the US decreased by 8.1% [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 9.24 trillion yuan, a 4.2% increase, and trade with African countries hit a record high of 963.21 billion yuan, up 12.4% [2] Future Outlook - The export growth in May indicates ongoing external demand resilience, while the narrowing decline in imports suggests marginal improvement in domestic demand [3] - The activity of foreign-funded enterprises reached a near five-year high, with over 73,000 companies engaged in import and export activities, reflecting China's long-term attractiveness to foreign investment [3] - Expectations for June include continued export growth due to the "export rush" effect and proactive market expansion by foreign trade companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with exports increasing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 3.8% [1][4]. Trade Performance - The trade growth rate in the first five months was 0.1 percentage points higher than in the first four months [2]. - In May alone, the total goods trade value was 3.81 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.7%, with exports up by 6.3% and imports down by 2.1% [5]. - The export growth rate in May decreased by 3 percentage points compared to April [5]. Trade Partners - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with a trade value of 3.02 trillion yuan, growing by 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [6]. - The EU was the second-largest trading partner, with a trade value of 2.3 trillion yuan, increasing by 2.9%, making up 12.8% of total foreign trade [6]. - Trade with the US, however, saw a decline, with a total trade value of 1.72 trillion yuan, down by 8.1%, and exports to the US decreasing by 8.7% [6]. Market Outlook - The foreign trade market is expected to face significant uncertainties moving forward, particularly after the 90-day window for US-China negotiations [8][9]. - Despite the pause in the trade war, foreign trade enterprises continue to seek opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in "Belt and Road" countries and Europe [11]. - There are expectations for continued positive growth in exports for June, although challenges remain due to high US tariffs and a slowing external demand [10][11]. Policy Implications - The government is likely to maintain supportive policies for stabilizing growth and foreign trade, with potential increases in fiscal measures to promote consumption and investment [12].

据海关统计，2025年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元人民币，同比（下同）增长2.5%。 其中，出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。 5月份，我国货物贸易进出口总值3.81万亿元，增长2.7%。其中，出口2.28万亿元，增长6.3%；进口1.53 万亿元，下降2.1%。 前5个月我国进出口主要特点： 一、一般贸易、加工贸易进出口增长 前5个月，我国一般贸易进出口11.51万亿元，增长0.8%，占我外贸总值的64.2%。其中，出口7.04万亿 元，增长7%；进口4.47万亿元，下降7.8%。同期，加工贸易进出口3.21万亿元，增长6.2%，占17.9%。 其中，出口1.99万亿元，增长4.5%；进口1.22万亿元，增长9.3%。此外，我国以保税物流方式进出口 2.54万亿元，增长5.9%。其中，出口1.05万亿元，增长15.8%；进口1.49万亿元，下降0.2%。 二、对东盟、欧盟进出口增长 前5个月，东盟为我第一大贸易伙伴，我与东盟贸易总值为3.02万亿元，增长9.1%，占我外贸总值的 16.8%。其中，对东盟出口1.9万亿元，增长13.5%；自东盟进口1.1 ...

Economic Performance - Hong Kong's real GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, an increase from 2.5% in the previous quarter [1][4] - Seasonally adjusted, the real GDP rose by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter, revised from an earlier estimate of 2.0% [4] Trade and Exports - Overall merchandise exports increased significantly by 8.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, up from a 1.3% increase in the previous quarter [6] - Service output also expanded by 6.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a 6.5% increase in the previous quarter [6] Investment and Consumption - Total investment expenditure showed a moderate growth of 2.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, recovering from a slight decline of 0.7% in the previous quarter [7] - Private consumption expenditure continued to decline slightly by 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing changes in consumer behavior [7] Labor Market - The unemployment rate remained low at 3.2% in Q1 2025, slightly up from 3.1% in the previous quarter, while the underemployment rate held steady at 1.1% [8] Asset Market - The Hong Kong stock market experienced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a three-year high of 24,771 points in mid-March 2025, before closing at 23,120 points at the end of Q1, a 15.3% increase from the end of 2024 [10] - Residential property prices declined by 2% in Q1 2025, while overall residential rents increased slightly by 0.4% [11] Inflation - The basic composite consumer price index rose by 1.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, consistent with the previous quarter [12] - The overall composite consumer price index increased by 1.6% year-on-year, up from 1.4% in the previous quarter [12] Economic Forecast - The forecast for Hong Kong's real GDP growth for 2025 remains at 2% to 3%, consistent with earlier projections [15][17] - The inflation rate predictions for basic and overall consumer prices are maintained at 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively [15][17]

Core Insights - The global economy is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with a strong manufacturing PMI above 50, and China's foreign trade performance exceeded market expectations despite high tariffs from the US [1][7] - China's total export value in Q1 2025 reached approximately $853.7 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with significant contributions from private enterprises [2][3] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of Chinese enterprises in Q1 2025 was about $1.4 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with private enterprises accounting for 57% of this total [2][3] - The trade surplus in Q1 2025 surged by 48.6% to $273 billion, with private enterprises contributing 105.9% to this surplus [2][3] Private Enterprises Contribution - Private enterprises accounted for 64.8% of total exports in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, highlighting their role as the main contributors to foreign trade growth [2][3][4] - The number of private enterprises engaged in import and export activities reached a historical high of 455,000, representing 86.1% of all trading enterprises [1][2] Export Product Structure - In Q1 2025, mechanical and electrical products constituted over 60% of total exports, with integrated circuits and high-tech products showing significant growth [4] - Notably, energy exports saw a substantial decline, with refined oil exports down by 23.5% and coal exports down by 25.9% to 45.3% [4] Import Trends - Total imports in Q1 2025 decreased by 7% to $580.7 billion, with state-owned enterprises experiencing the largest decline at 20.5% [4][5] - Private enterprises showed a slight increase in imports by 1.8%, indicating a shift in the import landscape [4] Industrial and Trade Data Discrepancy - There is a growing disparity between industrial output and foreign trade data, with the ratio of industrial export delivery value to total foreign trade exports declining from 68.5% in 2020 to 59.2% in Q1 2025 [5][6] - The share of exports to the US has also decreased, indicating potential challenges in maintaining trade relationships [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - China's total import and export value for the first four months of 2025 reached 14.14 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, with exports increasing by 7.5% and imports decreasing by 4.2% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In April, China's total import and export value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports at 2.27 trillion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 1.57 trillion yuan (up 0.8%) [2] - For the first four months, general trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports at 9.05 trillion yuan (up 0.6%) and processing trade at 2.54 trillion yuan (up 6.6%) [3] - The ASEAN region became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 2.38 trillion yuan (up 9.2%), while trade with the EU and the US showed mixed results [4] Group 2: Trade Partners - Trade with ASEAN accounted for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade, while trade with the EU and the US represented 12.6% and 10.2%, respectively [4] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 7.25 trillion yuan, growing by 3.9% [4] Group 3: Enterprise Performance - Private enterprises accounted for 56.9% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 8.05 trillion yuan (up 6.8%) [5] - Foreign-invested enterprises contributed 29% to total trade, while state-owned enterprises saw a decline in trade volume [5] Group 4: Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products made up over 60% of exports, with significant growth in automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and automobiles [6] - High-tech products also performed well, with imports and exports totaling 1.52 trillion yuan, growing by 7.4% [9] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Major commodity import prices, including iron ore, crude oil, and coal, saw declines, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased [7][8]

博鳌亚洲论坛报告：2025年亚洲经济增速预计将增 至4.5% 本报记者 孙丽朝 海南博鳌报道 一年一度的博鳌亚洲论坛如期而至。 在全球经济复苏放缓背景下，亚洲仍是稳定和支撑世界经济的重要力量和基石。近年来全球发展面对诸 多挑战，亚洲经济体外部环境依然严峻，但亚洲经济体特别是中国、东盟等继续展现出强大韧性。 3月25日，博鳌亚洲论坛2025年年会官方发布的《亚洲经济前景及一体化进程2025年度报告》（以下简 称《报告》）表示，预计2025年亚洲GDP增长率为4.5%，略高于2024年的4.4%。中国、印度、越南、 菲律宾、蒙古、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚等亚洲经济体仍将保持5%以上的较高增速。 对于各界最关注的制造业供应链转移和股市问题，《报告》提出，亚洲仍是全球价值链的核心，中国仍 然是全球制造业全球价值链的中心。亚洲经济体的政策连续性较好，经济稳步复苏，将为股市继续反弹 打下良好基础。中国股市或将延续回升势头，这主要得益于企业盈利复苏、估值合理以及政策工具充足 等多重利好因素的支撑。 预计2025年亚洲多数股票市场将保持上升 中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院院长张宇燕在《报告》发布会上表示，亚洲经济体GDP占世界 ...