Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, influenced by important meeting content that boosts market risk sentiment, with slight declines in government bond futures and a majority of interbank bond yields rising by 0.5-1 basis points [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.25% at 115.01, the 10-year main contract down 0.06% at 108.005, the 5-year main contract down 0.05% at 105.615, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.332 [2] - Interbank major rate bond yields saw slight increases, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 1.912% and the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 2.097% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.82 basis points to 3.489% and the 10-year yield rising by 5.35 basis points to 4.001% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.659% [4] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields also rose, with French yields up by 2.7 basis points to 3.380% and German yields up by 2 basis points to 2.582% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 5-year and 7-year government bonds at 1.63% and 1.7324%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.64 and 3.24 [5] - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.8049% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.36 [6] Liquidity and Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 3.2 billion yuan for the day [7] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized high-quality development and technological self-reliance as key goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming for significant improvements in various sectors by 2035 [8][9] Institutional Perspectives - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) anticipates that medium to long-term economic growth will remain robust, with a focus on technology and consumption as central to domestic demand [10] - CITIC Securities highlights that the core of the 14th Five-Year Plan is high-quality development, with a focus on technology, real economy, and consumption, while cautioning against expectations of large-scale stimulus in the real estate sector [10]

Geopolitical Developments and Energy Markets - Crude oil prices, specifically Brent and WTI futures, surged over 4% due to new US and EU sanctions on Russia, targeting major oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions and potential inflationary pressures [3][6] - Indian refiners are reconsidering their purchases of Russian crude, with a significant impact also felt in the Chinese market, reflecting the global ramifications of these sanctions [3] Automotive Industry and Supply Chain - Volkswagen has secured an alternative semiconductor supplier to mitigate potential disruptions from China's export controls on Nexperia, a Dutch semiconductor producer, ensuring its production capabilities remain unaffected [4] - This move is part of Volkswagen's broader strategy initiated in early 2022 to reorganize its procurement of electronic parts and semiconductors, enhancing long-term supply and competitiveness [4] European Bond Market - The European bond market has seen its first pulled deal since June, signaling increased caution among investors and potentially indicating a shift in market sentiment amid broader economic uncertainties [5] UK Economic and Energy Policy - Recent data from the Office for National Statistics shows UK employee average regular earnings grew by 4.7% from June to August 2025, with total earnings increasing by 5.0%, while real terms adjustments indicate a 0.6% rise in regular pay [6][7] - A think tank led by former Prime Minister Tony Blair has sparked debate by suggesting the UK should prioritize energy cost reduction over the 2030 power system cleanup target, advocating for a "radical reset" in climate action focusing on emerging technologies [8] US Political Landscape - Ongoing divisions among Republicans regarding the government shutdown are creating uncertainty, which may have implications for economic stability and investor confidence, as the shutdown is now one of the longest in history [9]

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Group 1 - The current 10-year government bond and policy bank bond spread has decreased to around 14 basis points, indicating a potential for further compression in the context of market preferences for spread compression strategies [1] - The liquidity and riding value of 5-7 year bonds are highlighted as favorable for mid to long-term investments, while the 30-year government bond is experiencing frequent changes in the main trading bond due to its relatively good liquidity [1] - The 30-year old bonds and 50-year government bonds are recommended for trading, especially for those with strong liquidity demands [1] Group 2 - As of October 22, 2025, the 5-10 year government bond ETF index has increased by 0.02%, with a cumulative increase of 3.36% over the past year [3] - The trading volume for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is active, with a turnover rate of 70.64% and a total transaction value of 1.089 billion yuan [4] - The 5-10 year government bond ETF has a total scale of 1.541 billion yuan, with a net value increase of 21.31% over the past five years, ranking 34 out of 179 in the index bond fund category [4] Group 3 - The management fee for the 5-10 year government bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] - The tracking error for the 5-10 year government bond ETF over the past month is 0.027%, indicating a close tracking of the underlying index [6] - The index consists of actively traded government bonds with maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years, calculated using a non-market capitalization weighted method [6]

South Korea is raising ¥110 billion ($723 million) in a multi-tranche sale of Samurai bonds in Japan https://t.co/B9NAep1zV2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are preparing for an important inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is vital for understanding the U.S. economic landscape amid a lack of government data due to the shutdown [1] Group 1 - The upcoming inflation reading is seen as a crucial indicator for the U.S. economy [1] - The current government shutdown has resulted in a vacuum of economic data, making the inflation report even more significant [1]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to consolidate on October 22, with most government bond futures slightly rising, and interbank bond yields fluctuating within 0.5 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan in the open market, leading to a decline in funding rates [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase: the 30-year main contract rose by 0.10% to 115.61, the 10-year contract increased by 0.02% to 108.145, and the 5-year contract went up by 0.04% to 105.735 [2] - The yields on various government bonds showed slight declines, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.1 basis points to 2.179% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 0.64 basis points to 3.445% and the 10-year yield down by 2.49 basis points to 3.953% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly decreased, with the 10-year yield down by 0.7 basis points to 1.648% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also fell, with French yields down by 2 basis points to 3.341% and German yields down by 2.5 basis points to 2.550% [4] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had the following yields: 1.5091% for 1.074 years, 1.7911% for 3 years, and 1.9537% for 10 years, with bid-to-cover ratios indicating strong demand [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 138.2 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising slightly by 0.1 basis points to 1.318% [6] Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income noted that the current operation mechanism for policy financial tools is similar to 2022, with a broader focus on funding areas and an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, potentially expanding further [7] - Dongwu Fixed Income highlighted opportunities in the newly expanded Sci-Tech Bond ETF, suggesting that inclusion in the ETF could lead to price increases and create arbitrage opportunities [8] - CITIC Securities indicated that the bond market sentiment may have reached a low point, with a cautious but more positive trading approach recommended, while maintaining a neutral position [8]

Chinese sovereign bonds are luring buyers as speculation grows that the nation’s central bank will ease monetary policy before the end of the year to support the economy in the face of trade risks https://t.co/0vFcOnyy4K ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is stabilizing with a slight divergence in yield trends, while overall volatility has narrowed, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards a more positive outlook [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.16% to 115.590, the 10-year main contract up 0.05% to 108.145, the 5-year main contract up 0.05% to 105.715, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% to 102.372 [2] - The interbank major interest rate bonds showed slight divergence, with the 10-year government bond yield down 0.5 basis points to 1.763% and the 30-year government bond yield up 0.15 basis points to 2.0875% [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose 0.99% to 479.2 points, with significant gains in several convertible bonds, including a 20.00% increase in Guanzhong Convertible Bond [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down 3.45 basis points to 3.978% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly declined, with the 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points to 1.659% [4] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.2 basis points to 3.361%, while the 10-year German bond yield fell by 0.3 basis points to 2.576% [4] Primary Market - Sichuan issued a 10-year ordinary special local bond with a scale of 5.16629 billion yuan and an issuance rate of 2.0500%, with a marginal multiple of 1.23 times [5] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 68.5 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate steady at 1.317% and the 7-day rate rising by 0.8 basis points to 1.426% [6] Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the current fundamentals, liquidity, and monetary policy stance are favorable for the bond market, suggesting that the most pessimistic sentiment may have ended [7] - Huatai Fixed Income indicated that while the bond market sentiment has slightly improved, regulatory and stock market risks remain core concerns, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures to support the market-making of government bonds, aiming to enhance liquidity in the secondary market and improve the yield curve reflecting market supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Operations - The Ministry of Finance will conduct market-making support operations for government bonds [1] - The operations will include the issuance of two types of government bonds: the 2025 14th issue and the 2025 15th issue, with operation amounts of 3.3 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan respectively [2] - The auction for the 2025 14th issue will take place on October 21 at 11:05, while the 2025 15th issue will be auctioned at 11:35 [2] Group 2: Auction Details - The 2025 14th issue will have a maturity of 5 years, and the 2025 15th issue will have a maturity of 3 years [2] - The price fluctuation limits for the 2025 14th issue and the 2025 15th issue are set at 0.05 yuan and 0.03 yuan respectively, with a maximum price limit of 40 yuan [2]