Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term with a long - term bullish view, and it is recommended to buy on dips; bonds are expected to oscillate [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are suitable for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is in a high - level shock, suggesting to exit long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading; aluminum is recommended to go long on dips; nickel is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are suitable for range trading [1][11][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; soda ash's 01 contract has a short - selling strategy [1][22][25]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly stronger in a shock; PTA is in a low - level shock; apples are expected to be slightly stronger in a shock; red dates are expected to oscillate [1][39][40]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; eggs' price rebounds are under pressure; corn is in the process of bottom - building in a shock; soybean meal rebounds from a low level; oils are in a high - level adjustment with a pattern of weak palm oil and strong soybean oil [1][43][49]. Core Views The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets. After events such as Sino - US trade negotiations, the release of quarterly reports, and the conclusion of important meetings, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, resulting in a lack of catalysts for market direction. Each sector has different supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environmental impacts, leading to different price trends and investment strategies [5]. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stocks**: After important events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, it is bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Bonds**: The current bond market environment is conducive to the spread compression strategy, but there are risks in the short - end bond pricing and institutional positions. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and expect bonds to oscillate [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market has a pattern of tight supply and demand, with prices rising steadily. The supply of coal mines is reduced at the end of the month, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine production resumption on supply [8]. - **Rebar**: After the macro - events at the end of October, the black prices declined. The rebar price is at a relatively low valuation, and the demand has recovered while the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to go long on dips and focus on the range of 3000 - 3200 [8]. - **Glass**: The supply is at a high level, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to sell the out - of - the - money call options of the 01 contract and hold them until expiration. Consider the 05 contract after the new year [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: After reaching a record high, the copper price declined. Although there are long - term positive factors such as tight supply of copper concentrates and increasing demand, the short - term high price suppresses downstream demand, and the inventory has increased. It is expected to be in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or engage in short - term range trading [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is under pressure, the production capacity of alumina has decreased, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is in the transition from peak to off - peak season. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may lead to a more relaxed supply of nickel ore in the future. The refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron is restricted by the downstream stainless steel market. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [18]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, but the downstream consumption is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading and focus on the supply resumption and downstream demand [19]. - **Gold and Silver**: After the Sino - US negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut, there are still uncertainties in the market. Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk - aversion demand, they are expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the US ADP employment data [20][21]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export growth is uncertain. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 4600 - 4800 [23]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by the high inventory of alumina, the spot pressure is large. The supply is high in winter, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract should focus on the pressure at 2400 [26]. - **Styrene**: The cost is affected by the price of crude oil and pure benzene. The supply and demand are relatively weak, and it is expected to oscillate. It is necessary to focus on the price of oil, the production and import of pure benzene, etc. [27]. - **Rubber**: The cost support is insufficient, the inventory of dark - colored rubber has increased, and the market sentiment is bearish. However, the reduction in rubber tapping due to rainfall limits the downward space. It is expected to be weakly sorted in the short - term [29]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases due to increased maintenance, the agricultural demand increases, and the port inventory decreases. The price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 1600 - 1700 [30]. - **Methanol**: The supply is affected by the maintenance of devices, the cost increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract should focus on the range of 2230 - 2330 [32]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost has a certain support, the supply increases due to new production, and the demand is mainly based on rigid needs. PE is expected to oscillate in the range, and PP is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is necessary to focus on downstream demand and the price of crude oil [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to have a short - selling strategy for the 01 contract [38]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the supply and demand of global cotton are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. With the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the high price of seed cotton acquisition, it is expected to be slightly stronger in a shock [39]. - **PTA**: The price of crude oil is under pressure, the supply and demand of PTA are in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is in a low - level shock. It is necessary to focus on the range of 4400 - 4700 [39][40]. - **Apples**: The quality of apples has decreased this year, and the expected delivery cost has increased. It is expected that the price will be slightly stronger in a shock [40]. - **Red Dates**: The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the price is expected to oscillate [41]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the pig price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is large before the first half of next year, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to have a short - selling strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [44]. - **Eggs**: The current inventory is large, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the future. The 12 - contract is at a premium to the spot, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 3250 - 3400 [46]. - **Corn**: The new grain is on the market, and the supply is sufficient. The price is under pressure in the short - term. In the long - term, the cost has support, and the demand is stable but weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2050 - 2170 [49]. - **Soybean Meal**: The expected increase in China's soybean purchases from the US has pushed up the price of US soybeans, and the cost has increased. Although the domestic supply is relatively abundant, the soybean meal price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take profit on the M2601 contract at high levels and continue to hold after a pullback [49]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations and production increase. Soybean oil is affected by the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected increase in soybean imports. Rapeseed oil is in a situation of tight supply in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to focus on the support levels of different varieties and the spread trading strategies [52][54][55].

股指或区间震荡，债市或 震荡运行 2025-11-03 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 股指策略建议 01 金融期货策略建议 p 策略展望：区间震荡。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏，地缘政治 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：盘面上，个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超3700股飘红，全市场成交2.35万亿，沪深两市 成交额2.32万亿，较上一个交易日缩量1000余亿。 p 核心观点：在中美贸易谈判、三季报、四中全会召开结束后，市场进入到一段时间的业绩、事件、政策 的真空期，市场缺少决定方向的催化剂，因此市场会进入到一段时间的震荡阶段以等待年底的新的变化。 国内流动性整体维持相对宽松、外部美联储降息预期或反复修正、TMT短期节奏或有所放缓，综合来 看预计11月市场风格有望再平衡，或重回杠哑铃结构。股指或震荡运行。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示大盘指 ...

截至10月22日，国开债券ETF近6月净值上涨0.57%，指数债券型基金排名72/490，居于前14.69%。从收 益能力看，截至2025年10月22日，国开债券ETF自成立以来，最长连涨月数为15个月，最长连涨涨幅为 3.90%，涨跌月数比为31/5，年盈利百分比为100.00%，月盈利概率为87.67%，历史持有3年盈利概率为 100.00%。 回撤方面，截至2025年10月22日，国开债券ETF近半年最大回撤0.12%，相对基准回撤0.19%，在可比基 金中回撤最小。回撤后修复天数为8天。 费率方面，国开债券ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，费率在可比基金中最低。 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年10月22日，国开债券ETF近2月跟踪误差为0.014%，在可比基金中跟踪精度 最高。 国开债券ETF紧密跟踪中债-0-3年国开行债券指数(总值)财富指数，中债-0-3 年国开行债券指数隶属于 中债总指数族分类，该指数成分券包括国家开发银行在境内公开发行且上市流通的待偿期 3 年以内（包 含 3 年）的政策性银行债，可作为投资该类债券的业绩基准和标的指 机构认为目前债市情绪偏好，但在没有出现明显事件 ...

机构择券思路多。机构人士指出，目前10年国开-国债利差下行至14BP左右，在市场行情偏好，投资者关注利差压缩策略的背景下，国开-国债利差跟随下行 是可能的，但这一节奏预计会受赎回费新规影响，确定性可能不及30-10Y利差以及信用利差压缩，另外10年国债换券也可能会被动压缩国债-国债（非增值 税）利差。 中长端可以关注5-7Y，其流动性和骑乘价值较好。30年国债方面，最近30年国债主力券反复切换，原因在于新券25T6规模不大但流动性较好，且保险等配 置型资金又更偏好地方债，故25T6始终在交易盘中流通。如果25T6能够一直保持较好的流动性，那么能够支持其利率处于当前偏低水平。 截至2025年10月22日 15:00，中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数(净价)(H21018)上涨0.02%。国债ETF5至10年(511020)上涨0.02%，最新价报117.1元。拉长时间 看，截至2025年10月22日，国债ETF5至10年近1年累计上涨3.36%。 流动性方面，国债ETF5至10年盘中换手70.64%，成交10.89亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至10月22日，国债ETF5至10年近1周日均成交5.18亿元。 ...

机构认为，债市情绪较三季度更强，市场不看空的想法更多，利率可以继续按照偏强震荡走势交易，可 以更关注利差压缩策略：4-5Y二永，50年国债，30年老券等。目前10年国开-国债利差在18BP左右，未 来等赎回费新规落地影响后，可以再关注利差是否有压缩价值。 跟踪精度方面，截至2025年10月14日，国开债券ETF近半年跟踪误差为0.014%，在可比基金中跟踪精度 最高。 国开债券ETF紧密跟踪中债-0-3年国开行债券指数(总值)财富指数，中债-0-3 年国开行债券指数隶属于 中债总指数族分类，该指数成分券包括国家开发银行在境内公开发行且上市流通的待偿期 3 年以内（包 含 3 年）的政策性银行债，可作为投资该类债券的业绩基准和标的指 数。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 截至10月14日，国开债券ETF近6月净值上涨0.55%，指数债券型基金排名55/486，居于前11.32%。从收 益能力看，截至2025年10月14日，国开债券ETF自成立以来，最长连涨月数为15个月，最长连涨涨幅为 3.90%，涨跌月数比为31/5，年盈利百分比为100.00%，月盈利概率为87.57 ...