%% %% %% %% 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 政策性金融工具，能撬多少倍？——"财政的底 色"系列报告（四） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 政策性金融工具有显著的"准财政"属性，它能发挥市场化运作优势，撬动更多民间资本参与， 提高投资效率。2026 年 2 月国常会提到"要加力提效用好新型政策性金融工具"，我们预计 2026 年新型政策性金融工具规模或将保持高位，延续"精准支持、高效投放、结构优化"的导 向。随着项目最低资本金比例的结构性调降，理论上政策性金融工具的撬动倍数上升。我们手 工收集并计算了各省、部分披露项目的撬动倍数情况，新型政策性金融工具的撬动倍数集中在 10 倍左右，但在实践中可能存在高估。 %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table ...

2026 年 03 月 06 日 务实筑基，向新图强 宏观研究团队 ——2026 年政府工作报告学习 shenmeichen@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 沈美辰（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：3 月 5 日，李强总理在人大会议上作《政府工作报告》（简称《报告》）。 形势判断：我国经济韧性强，内外部不确定性加深 2025 年作为"十四五"收官之年，我国经济展现出较强韧性，向新向优发展。 但当下仍面临不少内外部的挑战，外部地缘政治风险上升、世界经济动能疲弱、 多边主义、自由贸易受到冲击；内部新旧动能转换任务艰巨、供强需弱、部分企 业和群众面临困难、地方财政矛盾、房地产调整等。 目标衔接长远，展现提质增效的内涵要求 1、4.5%-5%的区间目标是留空间、衔接远期的考虑。一方面，要"为调结构、 防风险、促改革留出空间"。2026 年重视提质增效，既是跟上国际科技发展趋势， 又是应对接下来可能更激烈的科技、关键矿产博弈的必然准备。另一方面，同 2035 年远景目标衔接。《四中全会辅导百问》测算实现 2035 年目标需 ...

"十五五"开局之年，《政府工作报告》体现更加重视高质量发展、继续提升增长可持续性的特点。经济增长目标设定兼顾长期可持续性与短期必要 性，货币与财政政策总量方面延续灵活积极基调，结构方面更重视提质增效。消费方面，结构性激发居民内生能力和周期性政策并举，推动消费持续 增长。产业方面，《报告》将"加紧培育壮大新动能"和"加快高水平科技自立自强"放在今年政府工作任务部分的第二、三条，重要性和紧迫性不言而 喻。2026年政府工作报告对经济和金融市场具体可能如何影响？请听中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 中金研究 目录 宏观：更重视可持续性 宏观：更重视可持续性 今年是 " 十五五 " 开局之年，《政府工作报告》 [1] （下称《报告》）体现了更加重视高质量发展、继续提升增长可持续性的特点。《报告》明确指出 " 要用 改革的办法打通经济循环的卡点堵点，将政策效果转化为经济内生增长动能。 " 具体而言， GDP 增长目标设定方面兼顾长期可持续性与短期必要性，区间 式设置比较灵活，也指出在实际工作中争取更好结果。货币与财政政策总量方面延续灵活积极基调，而结构方面更加重视提质增效，对重点领域的支持更 加清晰。消费方面，结构性 ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2026 年 03 月 05 日 证券研究报告•宏观简评报告 会议点评 稳中应变，开新局、留空间 ——2026 年政府工作报告点评 点评 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：叶凡 执业证号：S1250520060001 电话：010-57631106 邮箱：yefan@swsc.com.cn 分析师：刘彦宏 执业证号：S1250523030002 电话：010-55758502 邮箱：liuyanhong@swsc.com.cn 联系人：徐小然 邮箱：xuxr@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 扩内需提质增效，政策工具更趋多元化。"内需主导"包括两层含义：消费方 面，立足于建设"强大国内市场"，持续优化"两新"政策实施，深入推进提 振消费专项行动。2026 年 除安排超长期特别国债 2500亿元支持消费品以旧换 新外，还新设 1000 亿元财政金融协同促内需专项资金，同时扩大个人消费贷 款与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策覆盖。政策协同性持续增强、工具更加多元， 投向更加精准 。2025 年 12月，首批 625亿元超长期特 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 十点新变化——2026 年地方两会点评 事 项 截至 2 月 3 日，全国已有 29 省市召开人代会，公布 GDP 目标等全年重点工作 目标。2 月 4 日至 5 日，内蒙古、安徽将召开会议，至此 2026 年地方两会将全 部召开完毕。根据已有 29 省市情况，我们总结出以下十点变化。 主要观点 一、今年 GDP 目标：广东省时隔七年再次设置区间目标 广东、浙江等 6 省今年设置区间目标，其中广东数值为 4.5%-5.5%。从 2012 年 至今情况看，全国设置区间目标的年份只有 2016 年和 2019 年，当年分别有 4 个、2 个经济大省设置区间目标，两次的共同点在于经济第一大省广东均在列。 我们估算 29 省市 GDP 目标加权增速，今年为 5.0%，去年为 5.24%。 二、"十五五"GDP 目标：北京新疆重设年均目标，均为区间形式 北京、新疆的变化可能较为值得关注，两地重设 GDP 年均目标且均为区间形 式。"十四五"期间，北京、新疆未设置 GDP 年均目标，其中新疆的表述为"保 持在合理区间、各年度视情提出"，与全国"十四五"规划公布的要求完全一 致。今年， ...

Group 1 - The central bank of China is expected to continue implementing a loose monetary policy to eliminate negative output gaps and promote reasonable price recovery, with expectations of further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026 [2][3] - The current economic environment shows that while liquidity is not lacking, there is a deficiency in loan demand, making the necessity for interest rate cuts higher than for reserve requirement reductions [3][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 2025 is projected to remain flat compared to 2024, significantly below the target inflation rate of around 2%, indicating that the current economic growth rate is below its potential level [2][3] Group 2 - The effectiveness of monetary policy is influenced by the economic cycle, with expansionary fiscal policy often proving more effective during economic downturns, as it can directly create new demand [4][5] - The transmission efficiency of monetary policy is also affected by the balance sheets of households and enterprises; if these are damaged, the effectiveness of expansionary monetary policy declines [5][6] - The quality of collateral available to commercial banks is crucial for credit availability; a decline in real estate prices has negatively impacted the quality of collateral, leading to reduced credit growth [6][7] Group 3 - To enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, it is recommended to strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on more active fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand [7][8] - Efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market, as falling property prices are a significant factor affecting the balance sheets of households and enterprises [7][8] - The central government should increase the issuance of government bonds of various maturities to provide funding for expansionary fiscal policies and to supplement the quality of collateral in the banking system [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Gansu Branch of the China Development Bank has been actively integrating financial services into the development blueprint of Gansu, focusing on infrastructure investment to support high-quality economic growth in the region [1] Group 1: Traditional Infrastructure Investment - The construction of three new highway corridors across Gansu is a key project aimed at improving transportation and supporting urban-rural development, with the bank providing comprehensive financial services [2] - As of early December, 28 sub-projects of the new highway corridors have commenced, with the bank having invested nearly 100 billion yuan in infrastructure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2] - The bank has supported the construction of over 2,200 kilometers of new highways and railways, and facilitated a green energy transition with renewable energy installations exceeding 35 million kilowatts [2][3] Group 2: Financing and Project Support - The bank has developed a differentiated credit product system covering the entire project lifecycle for major infrastructure projects, including the three new highway corridors and the expansion of Lanzhou Zhongchuan International Airport [3] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the bank has led the organization of syndicated loans exceeding 120 billion yuan, effectively gathering financial resources for project implementation [3] - The bank has utilized policy financial tools to invest over 13 billion yuan, effectively supplementing project capital and stimulating larger-scale social investments [3] Group 3: New Infrastructure Development - The Gansu Branch has recognized the importance of new infrastructure, aligning with national strategies to modernize transportation systems and support digital economy initiatives [4] - The bank has issued over 8 billion yuan in loans to support the development of 5G, big data centers, and industrial internet projects, facilitating a transition from physical to smart connectivity [4] - A notable project includes the first "5G+" smart highway in Gansu, supported by a 6.5 billion yuan long-term loan, which enables automated driving through intelligent roadside systems [4] Group 4: Innovative Projects and Green Energy - The bank is supporting the construction of the first national pilot project for a green electricity aggregation data center in Qingyang, which aims to achieve a green electricity ratio of 55% and reduce electricity costs [5][6] - The bank's financing has also enabled the establishment of an intelligent copper factory, enhancing production efficiency and safety through automation and digital integration [6] - The ongoing development of a comprehensive and efficient infrastructure network in Gansu is expected to significantly boost the flow of people, goods, and information, contributing to the region's economic growth [6]

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlined the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Signals - The conference released three major positive signals: strong policy continuity with a focus on "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy," emphasis on high-quality development, and targeted efforts in key areas such as domestic demand and risk prevention [3][4] - The focus on "domestic demand as the primary driver" highlights the commitment to building a robust domestic market, with specific measures to increase income for urban and rural residents [3][10] Group 2: Policy Framework - The macro policy framework for 2026 includes maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% and expanding special bond quotas to approximately 5 trillion yuan, alongside a "small step, slow run" approach to monetary policy [7][8] - The expectation for fiscal policy is to direct funds towards key areas such as technology innovation, green initiatives, and consumer sectors, while monetary policy aims to lower financing costs for the real economy [8][9] Group 3: Focus on Domestic Demand - "Expanding domestic demand" is positioned as the top priority for 2026, with a focus on consumption driven by income growth and improved public services [10][20] - The strategy emphasizes a collaborative effort across government, businesses, and individuals to stimulate consumption and create a strong domestic market [10][21] Group 4: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The conference identified key areas for new growth drivers, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy, with the capital market playing a crucial role in supporting these sectors [13][14] - Capital markets are expected to provide pricing, financing, and merger support to foster innovation and facilitate the transition to high-tech industries [13][14] Group 5: Risk Management and Competition - The need to address "involution" in competition and improve the quality of small financial institutions was highlighted, with a focus on creating a unified national market to enhance fair competition [15][16] - Strategies for risk management include targeted measures to address risks in real estate and local government debt, emphasizing a market-oriented approach combined with policy support [17][18] Group 6: International Cooperation and Investment Opportunities - The conference emphasized the importance of international cooperation in areas such as digital trade, green energy, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to present significant investment opportunities [19][20] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors benefiting from service industry expansion, digital trade, and green transition, particularly for companies with competitive advantages in these areas [20][21]

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy for 2026, aiming to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development [3][8][11] Group 1: Economic Signals - The conference released three positive signals: strong policy continuity, focus on high-quality development, and targeted efforts in key areas such as domestic demand and risk prevention [3][4] - Emphasis on "internal demand as the main driver" and the establishment of a strong domestic market as a top priority for 2026 [11][12] Group 2: Policy Framework - The fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit ratio around 4% and expand special bond quotas to approximately 5 trillion yuan, while monetary policy will focus on maintaining ample liquidity and using structural tools to support innovation and consumption [8][9] - The conference highlights the need for policy synergy, integrating existing and new policies to enhance effectiveness and support economic stability [3][10] Group 3: Focus on Quality and Efficiency - The principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" is reiterated, with a new emphasis on "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" to balance short-term economic support with long-term transformation needs [6][7] - The shift from quantity expansion to quality optimization in policy focus is noted, aiming for more efficient, sustainable, and secure development [7][8] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified include digital trade, green energy, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from ongoing reforms and international cooperation [19][20] - The focus on county-level economic development and green transformation is anticipated to open up capital market opportunities in infrastructure, renewable energy, and healthcare services [21][22]

Group 1 - The bond market in 2025 experienced a "fast bull and slow bear" phase, with institutional behavior and market narratives becoming key factors in market pricing [3] - For 2026, three factors are expected to provide a ceiling for interest rates: real estate data, local government debt management, and bank interest margins [3] - Low interest rates are seen as essential for stabilizing the real estate market, reducing policy costs, and managing local government debt risks [3][4] Group 2 - The policy environment is expected to provide moderate support rather than strong stimulus, with fiscal and monetary policies likely to act in concert [4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%-5%, with fiscal policies maintaining a deficit rate near 4% and potential expansion of policy financial tools [4] - The balance between monetary easing and fiscal efforts will be crucial for identifying opportunities in the bond market [4] Group 3 - Institutional behavior and market narratives remain at the forefront of bond market strategies, with a focus on discovering trading strategies and interpreting market sentiments [4] - The current low net interest margin and the pressure on banks to manage liabilities indicate a challenging environment for bond investments [4] - The introduction of new regulations affecting fund redemptions may lead to short-term adjustments in the bond market [4] Group 4 - The real estate market is undergoing a slow recovery, with significant time needed to achieve repair goals [20] - The downward trend in real estate prices is impacting banks' collateral values, which could lead to increased risk exposure for banks [24] - The high leverage levels in both government and household sectors limit the potential for further demand in the real estate market [23]