监测周报 2025 年 9 月 22 日—2025 年 9 月 28 日 总第 359 期 2025 年第 36 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 5000 亿政策性金融工具落地， 有望拉动 2-5 万亿基建投资 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 35 期】河南专项债及专项贷款协力"清 欠"，第二批置换仅剩 2 省未发行完 2025- 09-28 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 34 期】超六成融资平台实现退出，甘肃 出台全国首个省级 PPP 存量项目方案 2025- 09-18 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 33 期】专项债会计处理新规强化资金监 管,山东力争 10 月底前完成专项债发行， 2025-09-11 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 36 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 32 期】宁夏、江西加快推进"退 ...

基本内容 对比 2022 年，这一次的政策性金融工具有几个不同之处： 一是出台背景和投向不同。 今年以来，基建投资增速持续回落，8 月新、旧口径基建投资同比增速分别下滑至-5.9%、-6.4%，降幅较 7 月进一步 走阔。基建投资的回落并不是因为缺钱，今年专项债发行加速，但用于项目建设的比例收缩，用于化债清欠的比例进 一步上升。此外，年初至今城投债净融资持续为负。 与 2022 年不同的是，此次新型政策性金融工具的出台更多是为了支持扩大内需和科技创新。因此，此次新型政策性 金融工具在工具形式和支持项目方面也和 2022 年有所不同。比如，更加聚焦新质生产力，重点支持数字经济、人工 智能、低空经济、消费基础设施、绿色低碳、农业农村、交通物流、市政园区等八大领域，其中 20%必须投向民营企 业。 二是资金来源可能也不完全相似。 2022 年政策性开发性金融工具的资金来源是政策性开发性银行发债和央行 PSL 支持。 与 2022 年不同的是，当前 PSL 利率高于政金债发行利率。如果央行维持 PSL 利率不变，此次新型政策性金融工具由 PSL 支持的必要性不强，这也是 8 月政金债净融资较多，但 PSL 并未新增的 ...

2025.09. 28 本文字数：1911，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 在外部环境更趋复杂严峻、国内经济面临需求不足与物价低位运行挑战的背景下，本次例会在形势判 断、政策基调及重点领域支持等方面的表述调整，既呼应了当前经济运行特点，也为后续政策走向提 供了清晰指引。 重在推进已出台政策落实落细 三季度例会在货币政策基调上与7月政治局会议的要求相同，均强调"落实落细适度宽松的货币政 策"。与上个季度例会内容相比，一些表述出现微调。 | | 二季度 | 三季度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 经济形势 | 经济呈现向好态势,社会信 | 经济运行稳中有进,社会信心 | | | 心持续提振,高质量发展扎 | 持续提振,高质量发展取得新 | | | 实推进，但仍面临国内需求 | 成效,但仍面临国内需求不 | | | 不足、物价持续低位运行、 | 足、物价低位运行等困难和挑 | | | 风险隐患较多等困难和挑 | 战。 | | | 战。 | | | 货币政策要求 | 实施好适度宽松的货币政 | 落实落细适度宽松的货币政 | | | 策,加强逆周期调节。 | 策,加强逆周期调节 | | 经 ...

2025 年 9 月 26 日 基准情形下（逆周期政策托底经济），美元兑人民币汇率年末将趋近于 7.0； 乐观情形下（超常规逆周期政策刺激经济，或美国对来自中国的进口商品关税 税率在现有水平的基础上再调降 20 个百分点），我们根据模型测算美元兑人 民币汇率的新均衡位置在 6.7 附近。 "强汇率+弱基本面"的组合下，货币宽松可能无法延缓升值，反而加剧 升值。本轮的人民币升值并非来自经济基本面的推动，而是从汇率预期→外汇 供求关系→升值→汇率预期的逻辑链条，即汇率预期与预期的自我实现形成 向上螺旋。因此未来人民币汇率的主导逻辑也不是简单的降息交易，而是基于 汇率预期和中美博弈。假设美联储四季度货币宽松符合市场预期，我们对于人 民银行未来的降息幅度分两种情形进行讨论： 基准情形：逆周期政策托底经济，人民银行四季度降息 10-20BP，财政政策 适度加力，货币政策、财政政策将共同主导汇率变动 本轮人 民币的 升值并 非伴 随 中国经 济的强 势回升 ，事实上目前 的汇率 定价已 计入经 济增长 可能再 次面 临 压力的 未来现 实。但 是目 前 市场对 于四季 度降息 落地并未形成一致预期，因此目前的汇率水平并没 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant role of fiscal policy in supporting economic resilience in the first half of 2025, with a broad fiscal expenditure growth rate of 8.9%, surpassing the nominal GDP growth rate of 4.3% [3][10] - Fiscal expenditures in the first half of 2025 showed a front-loaded rhythm and differentiated allocation, with a focus on debt resolution and rapid implementation of special refinancing bonds, amounting to nearly 1.8 trillion yuan [3][22] - Key areas of fiscal support included social security and employment, with expenditures increasing by 9.2% year-on-year, and scientific and technological spending rising by 9.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [3][22] Group 2 - The necessity and possibility of increasing fiscal measures in the second half of 2025 are highlighted, especially if economic pressures become evident, with potential adjustments to fiscal policies to meet annual GDP targets [5][40] - The article discusses two categories of fiscal tools for potential increases: one involving incremental policies that do not require budget adjustments, and another involving new government debt limits that require approval from the National People's Congress [6][68] - Historical context is provided regarding past adjustments to fiscal budgets, indicating that significant changes have occurred infrequently, with the last major adjustment in October 2023 involving an additional 1 trillion yuan in government bonds [6][68] Group 3 - Current fiscal priorities are identified as risk prevention, transformation promotion, livelihood protection, and consumption stimulation, with a focus on addressing hidden debt issues at the local government level [7][74] - The article notes that new emerging industries and service sector development are key areas of support, as indicated by recent political meetings emphasizing new pillar industries and increased openness in the service sector [7][81] - Specific fiscal measures include the establishment of a childcare subsidy fund with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, aimed at supporting families with children [7][89]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the bond market, expecting a continued decline in bond yields in the second quarter of 2025 due to accelerated fiscal and monetary policies [14][16]. Core Insights - The political bureau meeting emphasizes the acceleration of fiscal policy implementation, with a notable increase in the issuance of government bonds and special bonds in 2025, aiming to mitigate risks in key areas and address local government debts [1][3]. - Monetary policy is expected to adapt by potentially lowering the reserve requirement ratio and introducing innovative structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and stabilize foreign trade [5][10]. - The real estate policy focuses on urban renewal and the transformation of urban villages, with plans to expand the scale of these projects and improve the supply of high-quality housing [7][23]. - The impact of new U.S. tariff policies on Chinese exports is acknowledged, but the report highlights that Chinese listed companies primarily rely on domestic demand, which mitigates the overall impact [12][13]. - The report suggests that the second quarter of 2025 may present a favorable trading window in the bond market, driven by monetary policy easing and increased fiscal support [16]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The meeting highlighted a clear acceleration in fiscal policy, with government bond issuance progress at 25.6% and special bonds at 25.8% as of April 25, 2025, compared to 8.6% and 18.0% in the same period of 2024 [3]. - The focus is on utilizing existing policies more effectively, with expectations for increased bond issuance in May and June to support economic stability [4][10]. Monetary Policy - The report discusses the potential for lowering the reserve requirement ratio and the introduction of new financial tools to support consumption and innovation [5][21]. - The stability of the RMB exchange rate is noted, providing room for interest rate cuts [5][18]. Real Estate Sector - The political bureau plans to enhance urban renewal projects and optimize policies for the acquisition of existing housing, with a target of increasing the supply of high-quality housing [7][23]. - The report indicates that the overall housing market is expected to stabilize, with a gradual recovery in transaction volumes and prices over the next 1-3 years [26]. Consumer and Technology Sectors - The report emphasizes the importance of supporting domestic consumption and technological innovation, particularly in the context of external pressures from tariffs [32][33]. - The Chinese home appliance industry is highlighted for its global competitive advantages, with a focus on enhancing overseas production capacity [38]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on sectors related to domestic demand, such as consumer goods and telecommunications, as well as long-term investments in technology and domestic substitution concepts [15][31]. - Specific investment opportunities include cement companies and consumer building materials, which are expected to benefit from urban renewal and consumption stimulus policies [31].

要实现"十四五"圆满收官，做好下半年经济工作至关重要。 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。会议继续将稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期作为着力点，强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性""努力完 成全年经济社会发展目标任务"，并作出一系列重要部署，释放了多重信号。 中国财政学会绩效专委会副主任委员张依群说，财政政策会继续保持更加积极状态，从加速、加力两个 方面推动经济增长、民生保障、"四稳"落实。 今年以来，积极财政政策靠前发力。新增地方政府债券额度4月底已全部下达地方。截至6月底，2025年 超长期特别国债资金预算已下达6583亿元。 张依群分析，下半年加速重点在加快新增政府债券发行和政策性金融工具使用，加大投资增量的实物转 化，持续巩固当前经济企稳良好态势，保证经济增长的稳定性和连续性；加力主要表现在提高财政资金 使用效益，坚决兜牢基层"三保"底线，加大化解隐性债务力度，维护社会和谐稳定。 宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力 宏观政策是经济保持平稳运行的重要推动力。会议强调，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细 更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The monetary policy in the first half of 2025 will be divided into two phases, focusing on stabilizing the economy and adjusting liquidity based on economic conditions [1][7][36] Monetary Policy Outlook - The first phase (January-February) will see a stable economic start with less pressure for counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on preventing capital outflow and stabilizing exchange rates and interest rates [1][7] - The second phase (March-June) will shift towards stabilizing growth as previous policy goals are met, with potential for rate cuts and structural tool expansions [1][7][36] Liquidity Analysis - Narrow liquidity reflects the monetary policy stance, tightening initially and then loosening as the policy focus shifts [2][13] - The narrow liquidity is expected to remain limited in its further loosening due to macro-prudential considerations and the need to prevent capital outflow [2][13][62] Credit and Social Financing - Entity credit has stabilized in the first half of the year, with expectations for further improvement in the second half due to low base effects and proactive credit supply [17][66] - Social financing growth may slow down in the second half, with an expected year-end growth rate of around 8.2% [21][22] M1 Growth - M1 growth has rebounded, driven by low base effects, recovery in financing demand, and increased foreign exchange settlements, with expectations for continued support in the second half [25][26] - The M1 growth rate is projected to be between 3%-4% in the baseline scenario, with fluctuations expected throughout the year [25][26] Inflation and Asset Performance - Improvements in broad liquidity, particularly M1, typically indicate a rise in future inflation expectations and upward pressure on interest rates, yet current asset performance remains subdued [28][29] - Changing low inflation expectations requires new external forces, with recent policy signals indicating a focus on supply-side reforms and stabilizing demand [31][32] Structural Policy Tools - The central bank may restart government bond trading and consider further reserve requirement reforms, with potential structural tools focusing on digital finance and consumption [10][12][38] - The effectiveness of structural tools will depend on their implementation and the overall economic environment [38][39]

Group 1 - The article discusses measures to enhance the "Invest Shanghai" brand, focusing on improving financial resource supply and establishing a national asset merger fund matrix with a total scale of 50 billion yuan for industrial transformation and upgrading [1] - It mentions the establishment of a 100 billion yuan fund for three major leading industries, aimed at increasing investment in strategic projects and key links in the industrial chain [1] - The article highlights the innovative mechanism of "long-term capital + mergers and acquisitions + resource synergy" to enhance financial supply for Shanghai's strategic emerging industries, utilizing various financial tools to meet the funding needs of quality investment projects [1] Group 2 - Key application scenarios such as AI large models, embodied intelligence, autonomous driving, and low-altitude economy are prioritized for major application scenarios to tilt towards key enterprises and projects [1] - The article outlines activities like scenario roadshows, scenario matching, and innovation competitions to support awarded enterprises with access to university laboratories and low-cost office spaces [1] - It states that quality vertical large model projects will be included in the city's public computing power scheduling system, with subsidies implemented for model inference computing power projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while also preparing for incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The current proactive fiscal policy mainly focuses on accelerating the implementation of existing policies, particularly the issuance of government bonds, without introducing new incremental policies [2][5]. - National general public budget expenditure for this year reached 11.2953 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, significantly higher than the revenue growth rate of -0.3% [2]. - From January to May, government fund budget expenditure was 3.2125 trillion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, also exceeding the revenue growth rate of -6.9% [2]. Government Bond Issuance - The rapid issuance of government bonds has provided necessary funding for fiscal expenditure, with 6.29 trillion yuan in national bonds issued in the first five months, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - Net financing from government bonds reached 6.31 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. Incremental Fiscal Policies - Although specific details on this year's incremental reserve policies have not been disclosed, the approach has become clearer over recent years, focusing on systematic design and policy integration [4][5]. - Experts suggest that incremental fiscal policies are typically introduced in the second half of the year to meet annual economic development goals, often involving the issuance of additional government bonds and other financial instruments [5][6]. Debt Management and Support Measures - This year, refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, completing 81.5% of the annual limit of 2 trillion yuan [6]. - Experts recommend considering the early issuance of the 2 trillion yuan debt limit for next year to alleviate local repayment pressures [6]. Real Estate and Investment Support - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for robust support for real estate development, including policy backing in planning, land, finance, and fiscal aspects [7]. - The Ministry of Finance is working on establishing a childcare subsidy system and aims to finalize the project list for 2025 "two重" construction and central budget investments by the end of June [7][8].