Core Viewpoint - The monetary policy in the first half of 2025 will be divided into two phases, focusing on stabilizing the economy and adjusting liquidity based on economic conditions [1][7][36] Monetary Policy Outlook - The first phase (January-February) will see a stable economic start with less pressure for counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on preventing capital outflow and stabilizing exchange rates and interest rates [1][7] - The second phase (March-June) will shift towards stabilizing growth as previous policy goals are met, with potential for rate cuts and structural tool expansions [1][7][36] Liquidity Analysis - Narrow liquidity reflects the monetary policy stance, tightening initially and then loosening as the policy focus shifts [2][13] - The narrow liquidity is expected to remain limited in its further loosening due to macro-prudential considerations and the need to prevent capital outflow [2][13][62] Credit and Social Financing - Entity credit has stabilized in the first half of the year, with expectations for further improvement in the second half due to low base effects and proactive credit supply [17][66] - Social financing growth may slow down in the second half, with an expected year-end growth rate of around 8.2% [21][22] M1 Growth - M1 growth has rebounded, driven by low base effects, recovery in financing demand, and increased foreign exchange settlements, with expectations for continued support in the second half [25][26] - The M1 growth rate is projected to be between 3%-4% in the baseline scenario, with fluctuations expected throughout the year [25][26] Inflation and Asset Performance - Improvements in broad liquidity, particularly M1, typically indicate a rise in future inflation expectations and upward pressure on interest rates, yet current asset performance remains subdued [28][29] - Changing low inflation expectations requires new external forces, with recent policy signals indicating a focus on supply-side reforms and stabilizing demand [31][32] Structural Policy Tools - The central bank may restart government bond trading and consider further reserve requirement reforms, with potential structural tools focusing on digital finance and consumption [10][12][38] - The effectiveness of structural tools will depend on their implementation and the overall economic environment [38][39]

近日，上海市投资促进工作领导小组办公室印发《关于强服务优环境进一步打响"投资上海"品牌的 若干举措》。其中提到，加强金融资源高效供给。 建立国资并购基金矩阵，设立总规模500亿元产 业转型升级二期基金，用好1000亿元三大先导产业母基金，加大对重点产业战略性项目和产业链 核心关键环节投资力度。 通过"长期资本＋并购整合＋资源协同"创新机制，用好并购基金，加大 对上海战略性新兴产业的金融供给，充分运用科创债、政策性金融工具等，保障优质招商项目资金 需求。深化跨境结算、融资、财资管理等金融服务，为企业提供一站式出海金融服务。 《若干举措》发布AI大模型、具身智能、自动驾驶、低空经济等重点应用场景，推动重大应用场 景优先向重点企业、重点项目倾斜。组织开展场景路演、场景对接、揭榜赛马等活动，开展场景应 用创新大赛，为获奖企业提供高校实验室、低成本办公场地。将优质垂类大模型项目纳入全市公共 算力调度体系，对模型推理算力项目实施补贴。 每日｜荐读 榜单： 「2025投资机构软实力排行榜」评选启动 峰会： 「2025母基金年度论坛」盛大启幕：汇聚中国力量！ 热文： 一纸新规，炸出一级市场的管理费焦虑 热文： 今年，上市公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while also preparing for incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Implementation - The current proactive fiscal policy mainly focuses on accelerating the implementation of existing policies, particularly the issuance of government bonds, without introducing new incremental policies [2][5]. - National general public budget expenditure for this year reached 11.2953 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, significantly higher than the revenue growth rate of -0.3% [2]. - From January to May, government fund budget expenditure was 3.2125 trillion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, also exceeding the revenue growth rate of -6.9% [2]. Government Bond Issuance - The rapid issuance of government bonds has provided necessary funding for fiscal expenditure, with 6.29 trillion yuan in national bonds issued in the first five months, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - Net financing from government bonds reached 6.31 trillion yuan in the first five months, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. Incremental Fiscal Policies - Although specific details on this year's incremental reserve policies have not been disclosed, the approach has become clearer over recent years, focusing on systematic design and policy integration [4][5]. - Experts suggest that incremental fiscal policies are typically introduced in the second half of the year to meet annual economic development goals, often involving the issuance of additional government bonds and other financial instruments [5][6]. Debt Management and Support Measures - This year, refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 1.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, completing 81.5% of the annual limit of 2 trillion yuan [6]. - Experts recommend considering the early issuance of the 2 trillion yuan debt limit for next year to alleviate local repayment pressures [6]. Real Estate and Investment Support - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for robust support for real estate development, including policy backing in planning, land, finance, and fiscal aspects [7]. - The Ministry of Finance is working on establishing a childcare subsidy system and aims to finalize the project list for 2025 "two重" construction and central budget investments by the end of June [7][8].

会议释放出积极信号，与市场预期较为契合，为A股大盘的中长期稳定提供了有力支撑。会议提出要"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，新增"活跃"表述彰显国家 层面对资本市场的高度重视，意在提振投资者对市场的信心。资本市场作为经济的"晴雨表"，其活跃度对于企业融资、居民财富增长以及宏观经济稳定至关 重要。 "中国货币政策由2024年的'稳健'转为'适度宽松'。"中国银行首席研究员宗良表示，2024年12月中央政治局会议指出，2025年将实施适度宽松的货币政策。 今年《政府工作报告》中货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调，并明确提出"适时降准降息，保持流动性合理充裕"，不仅回应了市场关切，且预期将推出更大力度 的政策措施将有力提振市场信心，推动市场预期持续转暖。预计2025年央行将采用更丰富的货币政策工具，下调7天逆回购操作利率30-50个基点，带动广谱 利率下行，向市场注入流动性，促进消费、投资需求增长，推动物价合理回升。除了传统的降准降息外，央行还将继续使用结构性货币政策工具，以支持重 点领域和薄弱环节，引导资金流向关键领域，激发内生动力和创新活力。 贸易摩擦与政策波动带来双重考验 2025年，中国经济发展面临外部环境复杂多变、不确 ...

报 告 正 文 有"底线思维"，有"预案"。 会议将国际经贸斗争与国内经济工作并列，强化底线思维以应对外部冲击，当下已经提前做好各类预案和储备政策， 当然这不代表所 有储备政策都要马上出台实行。 会议认为应对外部冲击的抓手是"坚定不移办好自己的事"，即稳定发展国内经济。具体提出"四稳"， 其中稳就业和稳企业在前，这 也是经济从供给端对应的思路 ，而稳市场和稳预期在后。 政策力度加大，态度更加积极 。 从 未来部署 来看， 一方面 ，政策力度加大。会议提到政策要加强 超常规逆周期 调节，以抵消" 外部冲击 "。 另一方面 ，态度 上更加积极，更注重政策出台的 时机和效果 ，需要根据实际经济和国际形势变化 及时推出、用好用足 相关政策。 货币创设新工具，财政节奏有望加快。 货币政策方面， 央行工具箱继续丰富，后续将创设新的结构性货币工具以及政策性金融工具，用于 科技创新、消费和外贸 领域。此外，货币政策仍将适时降准降息。对于适时，我们理解仍是关注美联储降息时点，并综合考虑实体供给约束。 财政政策方面 ，会议提到要加快地方政府 专项债券和超长期特别国债等发行使用。年初至今，政府债发行的主力是普通国债和用于化债的置换 ...