Market Overview - The bond market experienced a decline in yields after an initial rise, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields both decreasing by nearly 1 basis point [1] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.32%, the 10-year main contract by 0.15%, the 5-year by 0.12%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [1] Yield Changes - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond (active bond 250011) fell by 0.45 basis points to 1.754%, while the 10-year policy bank bond (active bond 250215) decreased by 0.8 basis points to 1.931% [1] - The 30-year government bond (active bond 2500006) saw a yield drop of 2.5 basis points to 2.24% [1] Auction Results - In the primary market, the weighted average interest rates for various bonds were reported, with the 1-year government bond (250211X11) at 1.4748% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.86 [3] - The 3-year government bond (250214X31) had a weighted average interest rate of 1.7263% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.54 [3] Credit Bond Market Performance - The top five non-financial credit bonds by increase included H0宝龙04 and various 万科 bonds, with the highest increase being 3.72% for 22万科02 [4] - Conversely, the top five non-financial credit bonds by decrease included H0中骏02 and 25鄂交K1, with the largest drop being 4.83% for 25鄂交K1 [4] Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 337.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan for the day [5] - Overnight SHIBOR rose to 1.4420%, while the 7-day SHIBOR increased to 1.5420% [5] Interbank Repo Rates - Interbank repo rates saw an overall increase, with FR001 rising by 15 basis points to 1.54% and FR007 increasing by 17 basis points to 1.65% [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing a strong consolidation trend, with long-term bonds performing particularly well, and the central bank may implement measures to release liquidity in the fourth quarter [1][6]. Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase across all maturities, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.32% to 115.4, the 10-year contract up by 0.15% to 108.175, and the 5-year contract increasing by 0.12% to 105.745 [2]. - The interbank bond market also exhibited a strong performance, with the 10-year government bond yield for "25附息国债16" decreasing by 1.25 basis points to 1.833% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields varied, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.94 basis points to 4.010% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.9 basis points to 1.674% [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 3,373 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,483 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 12.2 basis points to 1.442% [6]. Economic Fundamentals - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 53,732 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7]. - In September alone, the profit of these enterprises increased by 21.6% year-on-year, driven by new economic growth points and low base effects [8]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the stock market's long-term upward trend remains intact, advising investors to maintain exposure while being cautious of year-end market disturbances [9]. - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates continued fluctuations in the bond market, with a smoother decline in interest rates expected in the latter part of the fourth quarter [9].

Core Insights - Hong Kong's financial market has shown significant growth in both quality and quantity in 2023, with average daily trading volume reaching HKD 256.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126% [1] - The total fundraising amount in the IPO market reached HKD 182.9 billion, marking a substantial increase of 229% [1] - Hong Kong continues to rank third globally and first in the Asia-Pacific region in the Global Financial Centres Index, reflecting growing international confidence in the market [1] Group 1 - The approval of the first company relocation application signals a positive trend for businesses optimizing their structures and enhancing operational efficiency in Hong Kong [1] - The Hong Kong government aims to attract more mainland enterprises to use Hong Kong as an "outbound" platform, creating business opportunities and economic benefits [1][2] - The establishment of dedicated personnel in the company registry to streamline the registration process for state-owned enterprises is expected to enhance cross-border settlement and financing services [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has issued consultation documents to optimize the listing rules for structured products, aiming to enhance market competitiveness and efficiency [2] - Hong Kong's bond issuance hub accounts for nearly 30% of the Asian market, with the Securities and Futures Commission and the Monetary Authority releasing a roadmap to attract issuers [2] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures to support foreign institutional investors in the mainland bond market, enhancing market connectivity and liquidity [3] Group 3 - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged, with global demand projected to rise by 45% year-on-year by Q2 2025, reaching USD 132 billion [3] - The Hong Kong government is working to establish an international gold trading market and improve storage facilities, reinforcing its position as a financial and trading hub [3] - Upcoming international financial events in Hong Kong aim to enhance the city's global influence and promote investment opportunities [3][4] Group 4 - The Financial Secretary's office will continue to implement measures from the Policy Address to maintain Hong Kong's leadership as an international financial center [4] - The focus will be on policy innovation and resource investment to explore emerging financial sectors and drive economic growth [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the bond market adjusted, and long - term bond yields fluctuated upwards. The expected improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the overall boost of the Fourth Plenary Session to the "15th Five - Year Plan" risk preference led to the stock - bond seesaw effect, making the bond market oscillate weakly. Short - term yields rose slightly more than long - term yields, and the yield curve flattened further [2]. - This week (the week of October 27), the bond market will continue the weakly oscillating market. The easing expectation of Sino - US trade relations and the high market risk preference, along with the concern about the bond - fund redemption and asset re - allocation pressure caused by the new regulations on public - fund sales fees, will continue to suppress the bond market. Without trend - driving factors, the bond market needs to digest these negative factors, and the 10 - year Treasury yield will run in the range of 1.70% - 1.80% [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Section 1: Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - Last week, the bond market adjusted, and long - term bond yields rose significantly. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.24% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 2.40bp, and the 1 - year Treasury yield rose 2.82bp compared with the previous Friday, and the term spread continued to narrow [3]. - From October 20 to 24, the bond market showed different trends each day. For example, on October 20, the bond market weakened due to the stock - market rebound and progress in Sino - US talks; on October 21, the bond market oscillated strongly due to the expected interest - rate cut [3]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 107 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an issuance volume of 10763 billion, a net financing of 847 billion. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds increased, while those of policy - bank bonds decreased [9]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local bonds were 2.61 times, 3.36 times, and 20.42 times respectively [10]. Section 2: Last Week's Important Events - In the third quarter of 2025, GDP growth slowed down to 4.8%. Although the export growth accelerated, domestic investment and consumption decelerated, and the pulling force of domestic demand on economic growth weakened. The slowdown of infrastructure investment, the impact on manufacturing investment confidence, and the decline of real - estate investment led to a significant decline in investment growth, which was the main reason for the GDP growth slowdown [11]. Section 3: Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency data on the production side increased, such as the blast - furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum - asphalt plant operating rate, while the daily average pig - iron output decreased. On the demand side, the BDI index declined, and the CCFI index rose slightly. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased slightly. In terms of prices, pork prices continued to fall, while most commodity prices rose [12]. Section 4: Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market net investment was 1981 billion yuan. R007 decreased, DR007 increased, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit increased, the national - share direct - discount rates of all terms decreased, the volume of pledged - repo transactions fluctuated and decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio continued to decline [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 10月27日至11月2日地方债披露发行2706.82亿元，其中新增债1719.10亿元，再融资债987.72亿元 [1][5] - 10月20日至10月26日地方债共发行2472.28亿元，其中新增债1136.52亿元，再融资债1335.76亿元 [1][6] - 截至10月26日，第五轮第二批特殊再融资债共披露19934.09亿元，第六轮特殊再融资债共披露544.89亿元，下周新增披露245.84亿元；2025年特殊新增专项债共披露12379.89亿元，2023年以来共披露24258.52亿元 [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - 10月20日至10月26日地方债净供给1658亿元，10月27日至11月2日地方债预告净供给1780亿元 [15] - 展示9月和10月地方债计划与实际发行情况，以及地方债近月发行计划与实际发行、净融资情况 [16][23] Local Bond Net Supply - 截至10月26日，新增一般债发行进度83.69%，新增专项债发行进度87.11% [28] - 截至10月26日，再融资债减地方债到期当年累计规模情况展示 [29] Special Bond Issuance Details - 截至10月26日，特殊再融资债统计情况展示，包括各轮发行额及各地区情况 [34] - 截至10月26日，特殊新增专项债统计情况展示，包括2023 - 2025年各地区情况 [37][38] Local Bond Investment and Trading - 展示地方债一二级利差及分区域二级利差情况 [41][42] - 展示新增专项债投向情况，最新月份统计只考虑已发行的新增债 [43]

Group 1: Company Announcements - Shandong Ruyi Technology Group's subsidiary, Ruyi Group, is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations, but the company's operations are reported to be normal and not significantly impacted [1] - Taihe Group announced it will provide a guarantee for its subsidiary, Qihang Logistics, for a debt extension of 1.6881 billion yuan, with the guarantee period extending until April 2027 [3] - Gome Electrical Appliances reported an increase in execution targets totaling 373.3 million yuan and has been listed as a dishonest executor due to failure to fulfill legal obligations [4] - Junfa Group's subsidiary and bond guarantor have been included in the list of dishonest executors, with overdue amounts reported [5] - Huaxia Happiness Holdings announced that several bonds, including "20 Happiness 01," will continue to be suspended as part of debt restructuring efforts, with total unpaid debts reaching 29.24 billion yuan [7] Group 2: Financial Status and Debt Issues - Ruyi Technology has offshore bonds with a total balance of 1.7318 billion USD, with a default amount of 300 million USD [2] - Taihe Group has a total of 1.4655 billion USD in offshore bonds, with the entire amount in default [4] - Gome Electrical Appliances has a total bond balance of 207 million yuan, with 123 million yuan already in default [5] - Junfa Group has a total bond scale of 4 billion yuan [6] - Huaxia Happiness has a total bond scale of 2.124 billion yuan, with a default amount of 551.4 million yuan [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market dynamics in China, particularly in the context of recent policy changes and market conditions [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Stability Post Fourth Plenary Session**: The bond market is expected to maintain a repair trend in the short term, but the momentum for sustained increases is lacking. The policy focus is shifting towards equity financing rather than bond markets, making significant interest rate cuts unlikely in the near term [1][2]. - **Impact of Fund Redemption and Subscription Regulations**: Since the new regulations were proposed in September, there has been a notable impact on the bond market, particularly affecting government bonds and policy financial bonds. The market has partially priced in the risks associated with these new regulations, and a stabilization in market sentiment is anticipated once the regulations are officially implemented [1][6]. - **Technical Indicators**: Current technical indicators show that the bond market is below resistance levels but has some support. A recent shift from 30-year government bonds to policy financial bonds indicates short-term opportunities, although sustained trends remain challenging [5][9]. - **Credit Market Challenges**: The end of the year may bring increased pressure on the credit market due to the winding down of wealth management products and changes in bank investment strategies post-Q3 reports. The investment intensity from banks and insurance companies in fixed income may weaken in 2026 [4][8][7]. - **Long-term Preferences of Insurance Funds**: Insurance funds are favoring long-duration local government bonds due to their attractive spreads and value. They are also inclined towards high-quality credit bonds but show limited interest in lower-rated credits [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Expected Changes in Credit Spreads**: The new public fund regulations are expected to encourage long-term holding, impacting short-term bond funds the most. The regulations may lead to a shift in investment preferences among public funds, with a potential increase in direct investments [12][13][14]. - **Market Sentiment and Future Trends**: The bond market has shown signs of recovery, particularly in the 30-year government bond segment, with strong support levels identified. Future movements will depend on whether the market can maintain this recovery without significant pullbacks [9][10]. - **Regional Focus for Credit Selection**: Recommendations for credit selection include focusing on specific regions based on maturity timelines, with particular attention to areas like Xi'an and Qingdao for short-term investments, and provinces like Guangxi and Hubei for longer durations [19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the bond market, along with the implications of regulatory changes and market dynamics.

Group 1 - The main theme of the recent bond market recovery is chip trading, characterized by rapid widening of bond spreads and subsequent dispersion of chips, leading to a weak overall profit effect in the market [1] - As time progresses, the cost-effectiveness of re-trading decreases due to the approaching "expiration option" points of monetary easing events and TACO trading [1][2] - The bond market is expected to face weak supply and weak demand, with institutions likely reallocating towards low-risk, long-duration products due to increased risk appetite among residents [3] Group 2 - The current economic growth structure reflects a reduction in growth momentum, limited traditional incremental policies, and a projected GDP growth rate around 5%, indicating a form of "high-quality development" rather than traditional weakness [2] - The pricing power of bond market institutions is shifting, with a significant reduction in public fund participation compared to earlier in the year, leading to a more neutral strategy among brokers [2] - The relationship between the bond market and the technology sector is becoming clearer, with liquidity-driven bull markets in both sectors, although the marginal impact of liquidity easing is weakening [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This period's local bond issuance and net financing have both increased significantly compared to the previous period, and the next period is expected to see a slight sequential increase. The weighted issuance term has also lengthened. Currently, the issuance progress of new bonds is slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. The planned issuance scale of local bonds from October to November 2025 is large, and the special new special - purpose bonds and special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts have been issued. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds have widened, and the weekly turnover rate has increased. The cost - effectiveness of exploring the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has improved [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. This period's local bond issuance volume has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - This period (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.26) local bonds were issued a total of 2472.28 billion yuan (323.01 billion yuan in the previous period), and the next period (2025.10.27 - 2025.11.2) is expected to issue 2706.82 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period is 16.32 years, longer than 16.21 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of October 24, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special - purpose bonds accounted for 84.1% and 86.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 86.2% and 89.5%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 87.6%/94.6% and 88.4%/97.0%, and in 2023 it was 90.1%/89.0% and 91.2%/92.5% [2][18]. - As of October 24, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of local bonds of 1271.6 billion yuan from October to November 2025 (546 billion yuan in October and 725.6 billion yuan in November), including 742 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds (361.1 billion yuan in October and 380.9 billion yuan in November) [2][24]. - This period, 32 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds were issued, 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, and 21.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts. As of October 24, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special - purpose bonds was 1238 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1992.4 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.6%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed issuance. Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 21.4 billion yuan [2]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds have widened, and the weekly turnover rate has increased sequentially - As of October 24, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 21.14BP and 19.74BP respectively, widening by 0.60BP and 1.76BP compared to October 17, 2025, and were at the 61.00% and 77.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - This period's local bond weekly turnover rate was 0.63%, a sequential increase from 0.56% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Tianjin, and Ningxia were better than the national average [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring technical indicators and support levels in the bond market under short-term speculative logic [1][8] - The recent Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee did not focus heavily on financial and bond markets, indicating a consistent policy direction to support the real economy [10][12] - Key upcoming events for the bond market include potential easing of US-China trade tensions and the implementation of new fund fee regulations, which may lead to a stabilization of the market [14][16] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to maintain a short-term operational mindset, focusing on structural opportunities rather than anticipating a significant downward trend in interest rates [9][21] - Technical analysis shows that previous resistance levels have become support levels, indicating a shift in market sentiment [22] - The report suggests a preference for 10-year government bonds and policy financial bonds, while ultra-long bonds should be approached cautiously [22][9] Group 3 - The report notes that the relative attractiveness of government bonds has changed, with most yield spreads narrowing, particularly between different maturities [36] - The bond market has experienced a structural recovery, with high elasticity varieties showing signs of fatigue, while 10-year government bonds demonstrate resilience [22][18] - The report highlights a potential decrease in year-end allocation power across various sectors, which may impact the bond market's performance in the fourth quarter [18][20]