证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 10 日 湘财证券研究所 债券研究 可转债研究 高价转债延续强势，关注低位补涨机会 相关研究： 1. 《可转债月度跟踪：推荐双低 策 略 ， 布 局 红 利 和 科 技 》 2025.05.28 2.《可转债月度跟踪：红利防御， 双低为矛》 2025.06.30 3.《可转债月度跟踪：转债估值上 升，挖掘结构性机会》 2025.07.31 4.《可转债月度跟踪：正股行情延 续，转债精选板块》 2025.09.01 分析师：张智珑 证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：(8621) 50295363 Email：zzl6599@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： ❑ 9 月转债整体跑输正股，高价转债延续强势表现 根据 Wind 数据，9 月（9.1-9.30）中证转债指数上涨 1.97%，中证全指上涨 2.65%；年初至今（截至 9.30），中证转债指数、中证全指分别上涨 17.11%、 23.68%。9 月权益市场继续震荡上行，保持着较高的交投活跃度，因此转 债依旧跑输正股，但板块分化比较明显。9 月中证转债指 ...

Macro - In the first half of the year, listed companies achieved operating income of 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%; net profit reached 3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.54%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points compared to the previous year's full-year growth [3][4] - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points month-on-month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points month-on-month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points month-on-month [3] - Several banks indicated that they continued to support the stabilization of the real estate market in the first half of the year by increasing mortgage loan issuance, with the second-hand housing loan issuance increasing by over 20% year-on-year [4] Convertible Bonds - In August, the convertible bond market continued to be active, with the convertible bond index rising by 4.32%, underperforming the overall market index which rose by 10.74% [6] - The high-priced convertible bond index outperformed low-priced and mid-priced indices, with an increase of 8.92% in August, indicating stronger performance in a rising equity market [6][9] - The dual-low strategy underperformed in a strong market, with only a 2.48% increase in August, while the high-priced low-premium strategy rose by 7.07% [9] Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry - Shouxiangu reported a 16.51% decrease in operating income to 300 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit decline of 33.99% to 65.56 million yuan [14] - The company expects performance to improve in the third quarter, as July saw a return to positive growth in revenue [15] - The company is expanding its online channels, with internet sales increasing by 15.14% year-on-year, while traditional sales channels are being enhanced through strategic partnerships [16] Innovative Drug Industry - Sanofi's half-year report showed a revenue of 4.36 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.8%, while net profit increased by 24.6% to 1.36 billion yuan [20] - The company is focusing on innovative therapies, with several products in clinical trials, including SSGJ-707, which has potential for significant market value [21] - Existing products are performing steadily, with a notable increase in sales in the hair loss segment, while other segments are experiencing slight fluctuations [22] Medical Equipment - Ruimait's half-year performance was strong, with a revenue of 544 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.30%, and a net profit of 131 million yuan, also up 42.19% [25] - The company has improved its expense ratios significantly, with a sales expense ratio of 10.43%, down 2.24 percentage points year-on-year [26] - The rebranding to "Ruimait" is expected to enhance brand value and market penetration, aligning the company's identity with its core products [28]

Group 1 - The convertible bond market underperformed the underlying stocks in August, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 4.32% compared to a 10.74% increase in the China All Share Index. Year-to-date, the respective increases are 14.85% and 20.49% [3][14]. - High-priced convertible bonds showed a significant increase of 8.92% in August, outperforming low-priced (3.14%) and mid-priced (3.26%) indices, indicating stronger performance in a rising equity market [3][16]. - The technology sector continued to perform strongly, with the information technology convertible bond index rising by 6.62% in August, benefiting from a 23% increase in the underlying technology stocks [4][27]. Group 2 - The dual-low strategy index increased by only 2.48% in August, while the high-priced low-premium strategy rose by 7.07%, highlighting the latter's stronger stock-like characteristics in a bullish market [5][32]. - The dual-low combination generated a return of 8.52% in August, outperforming the China Convertible Bond Index by 4.2 percentage points, and a cumulative return of 12.45% since June [6][35]. - For September, the dual-low strategy will focus on a reduced selection of bonds due to increased risks of delisting, with a final selection of 10 bonds primarily from the non-ferrous metals and light manufacturing sectors [6][38]. Group 3 - The report suggests maintaining a focus on growth sectors such as robotics and AI hardware, while also considering the military industry, which is expected to show improving fundamentals in September [8][40]. - The convertible bond market is likely to remain in a high valuation state if market activity continues, with high-priced low-premium convertible bonds expected to yield more returns when the underlying stocks are anticipated to rise [8][40].

Core Insights - The convertible bond market has become a significant source of excess returns for "fixed income +" fund managers in 2023, with several convertible bond-themed funds reporting returns exceeding 15% year-to-date as of August 8 [1][2] - There is a noticeable divergence in fund managers' strategies regarding convertible bonds, with some reducing their positions while others are increasing them, reflecting a re-evaluation of valuation systems and investment strategies [1][3] Group 1: Performance of Convertible Bonds - Multiple convertible bond-themed funds have performed well in 2023, with specific funds like Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A and Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A achieving returns over 20% [2] - The average price of convertible bonds is currently high, leading to challenges for fund managers in deciding whether to chase high prices or take profits [2][3] Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Many fund managers have explicitly stated in their reports that they are reducing their convertible bond positions, with examples including Hai Fu Tong and Hua An Convertible Bond, which saw significant decreases in their convertible bond allocations [3][4] - Conversely, some funds like Fu Guo Convertible Bond and Dongfang Hong Ju Li have increased their convertible bond holdings, indicating a split in strategy among fund managers [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The convertible bond market is experiencing structural changes due to a decrease in bank convertible bond supply, prompting funds to seek alternative assets to fill the gap in their portfolios [4][5] - The overall allocation to convertible bonds in fixed income portfolios has decreased, with a shift towards sectors like non-bank financials and healthcare [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Fund managers express concerns about the high average prices of convertible bonds, suggesting that the probability of achieving positive returns in the next six months is lower when prices are at current levels [3][4] - Despite the high valuations, some fund managers remain optimistic about the convertible bond market, citing the potential for continued demand driven by favorable equity market conditions [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the equity market rose significantly, but convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.83% from July 1 - 30, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 5.8%. Year - to - date, the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index increased by 11.11% and 10.33% respectively [4]. - The healthcare sector was strong, and convertible bonds followed the upward trend but still underperformed underlying stocks. The healthcare and information technology convertible bond indices had the best performance in July, with increases of 7.82% and 7.13% respectively. The financial convertible bond index only rose 0.47% this month, while the underlying stocks rose 3.69% [5]. - Due to the significant rise of underlying stocks, the double - low strategy significantly underperformed the high - price and low - premium strategy in July. The double - low strategy index only rose 2.36% in July and 9.12% year - to - date, while the high - price and low - premium strategy rose 7.29% in July and 13.75% year - to - date [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - **Overall Market Performance**: In July, the convertible bond market underperformed underlying stocks. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.83%, and the CSI All - Share Index rose 5.8%. The convertible bond market lagged behind the CSI 500 Index by 2.92 percentage points [4]. - **By Price Classification**: In July, the Wande high - price convertible bond index rose 5.84%, significantly outperforming the low - price (+4.27%) and medium - price (+2.72%) indices. Year - to - date, the low - price (+11.78%) and high - price (+11.76%) convertible bonds had similar cumulative increases, both higher than the medium - price convertible bonds (+9.07%) [4]. - **By Convertible Bond Stock Volume**: In July, the Wande small - cap (+4.47%) and mid - cap (+4.02%) convertible bond indices were strong, outperforming the large - cap convertible bond index (+3.11%). Year - to - date, the small - cap index (+15.97%) led the large - cap (+9.02%) and mid - cap (+9.81%) indices [23]. - **By Credit Rating**: In July, the AA+ (+5.13%) and AA (+5.44%) convertible bond indices had relatively large increases. The AA - and below convertible bond index rose 4.54%, while the AAA high - rating convertible bonds still underperformed. Year - to - date, low - rating convertible bonds significantly outperformed high - rating ones, with the AA - and below convertible bonds rising 17.53%, and AA and AA+ rising 11.62% and 10.36% respectively [26]. - **By Industry**: In July, the healthcare and information technology convertible bond indices performed best, with increases of 7.82% and 7.13% respectively. The financial convertible bond index only rose 0.47%, while the underlying stocks rose 3.69%. The performance of the public utilities convertible bond index was also better than that of the underlying stocks [5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 3.2.1 Strategy Recommendation: The Double - Low Strategy Should Focus on the Valuation Elasticity of Underlying Stocks - **July Double - Low Portfolio Performance**: The double - low portfolio constructed in July consisted of 22 bonds ranked in the bottom 5% by the double - low value. From July 1 - 30, the portfolio's return was 1.78% (equal - weighted allocation, without active screening), underperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 2 percentage points [44]. - **August Double - Low Portfolio Recommendation**: After screening out bonds with high delisting/redemption risks and weak underlying stock performance and valuation expectations, 15 bonds were selected. The industries with the most bonds were light manufacturing (3), machinery and equipment (2), and non - ferrous metals (2). The average convertible bond price, conversion value, and conversion premium rate of the portfolio were 124 yuan, 117 yuan, and 7% respectively [6][48]. 3.2.2 Allocation Recommendation: Focus on the More Growth - Oriented AI and Robotics Sectors As the market risk appetite has significantly recovered, high - price and low - premium convertible bonds can be used to replace underlying stocks to better capture the upside potential of underlying stocks. It is recommended to focus on the technology sector, especially AI and robotics, which have both thematic concepts and rapid performance growth [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In July, the equity market rose significantly, but convertible bonds underperformed the underlying stocks. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.83%, while the CSI All-Share Index rose 5.8%. Year-to-date, the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All-Share Index rose 11.11% and 10.33% respectively [2][11]. - The healthcare sector was strong, and convertible bonds followed the upward trend but still underperformed the underlying stocks. The healthcare and information technology convertible bond indices had the best performance in July, with increases of 7.82% and 7.13% respectively [3][21]. - The double-low strategy should pay more attention to the valuation elasticity of the underlying stocks. It is recommended to focus on the more growth-oriented AI and robotics sectors [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - In terms of price classification, in July, the Wande High-Price Convertible Bond Index rose 5.84%, significantly leading the low-price (+4.27%) and medium-price indices (+2.72%). Year-to-date, the cumulative increases of low-price and high-price convertible bonds were basically the same, both higher than that of medium-price convertible bonds [2][13]. - By convertible bond issue size, in July, the small-cap and mid-cap convertible bond indices performed strongly, with increases of 4.47% and 4.02% respectively, higher than the large-cap convertible bond index (+3.11%). Year-to-date, the small-cap index had a significant lead [16]. - By credit rating, in July, the AA+ and AA convertible bond indices had relatively large increases. Throughout the year, low-rated convertible bonds still significantly outperformed high-rated ones [17]. - In terms of sectors, in July, the healthcare and information technology convertible bond indices performed best. The financial convertible bond index only rose 0.47% this month, while the underlying stocks rose 3.69% [3][21]. - Driven by the sharp rise of the underlying stocks, in July, the double-low strategy significantly underperformed the high-price low-premium strategy. The double-low strategy index rose only 2.36% in July, while the high-price low-premium strategy rose 7.29% [26]. 2. Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 2.1 Strategy Recommendation: The Double-Low Strategy Should Focus on the Valuation Elasticity of the Underlying Stocks - The double-low portfolio constructed in July had 22 targets. From July 1st to 30th, the portfolio return was 1.78%, underperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 2 pct [29]. - In August, 15 individual bonds were selected. The average convertible bond price, conversion value, and conversion premium rate of the portfolio were 124 yuan, 117 yuan, and 7% respectively [32]. 2.2 Allocation Recommendation: Focus on the More Growth-Oriented AI and Robotics Sectors - The current market risk appetite has significantly recovered. Using high-price low-premium convertible bonds to replace the underlying stocks can better obtain the returns from the rise of the underlying stocks. It is recommended to focus on the technology sector, especially AI and robotics [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental protection and testing sector [9] Core Insights - As of June 28, 2025, there are 23 convertible bonds listed in the environmental protection and testing sector, with a total issuance scale of approximately 233.9 billion yuan and a latest balance of 192.0 billion yuan. The sector features several low-price and low-premium convertible bonds, suggesting potential investment opportunities driven by profitability and conversion [2][4][20] - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds such as Wei 22, Wei 24, Green Power, Yingfeng, Hongcheng, Wangneng, and Guojian, highlighting their potential for price appreciation due to underlying stock performance [6][30] Summary by Sections Convertible Bonds Overview - The environmental protection and testing sector has 23 convertible bonds currently trading, with a total remaining scale of 192 billion yuan. Among these, 1 bond is from a central enterprise, 3 from local state-owned enterprises, and 19 from private enterprises [4][20] - There is 1 convertible bond currently in the issuance application stage, with a scale of 4.93 billion yuan from Shengjian Technology [24] Issued and Delisted Convertible Bonds - As of June 28, 2025, 21 convertible bonds have been delisted from the environmental protection and testing sector, with a total issuance scale of 152.9 billion yuan. Five bonds were delisted in 2024, with an average time to maturity of 1.08 years [5][26] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes two main drivers for investment: profitability and conversion. Profitability can be enhanced through capacity expansion and exploring new growth avenues, which may lead to stock price increases and higher conversion values. If the premium rate of convertible bonds remains stable or decreases slightly, their prices are expected to rise [30][32] - Conversion may be driven by increased capital expenditures for new projects or weakened cash flow from existing projects, potentially leading to adjustments in conversion prices and indirectly boosting bond prices [30][32] Financial Projections - The report includes financial forecasts for several companies in the sector, indicating expected growth in net profits and corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2024 to 2027 [31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In June, the risk appetite of the equity market rebounded, but the performance of convertible bonds was weak. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.98% from June 1 to 27, while the CSI All-Share Index rose 3.13%. Year-to-date, the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All-Share Index increased by 6.65% and 3.43% respectively. Overall, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose in tandem with the equity market in June but underperformed the CSI 500 (-0.42pct) and the CSI 1000 (-1.17pct) [3][12]. - The information technology sector rose significantly, and there was a large divergence between the underlying stocks and convertible bonds in the consumer staples sector. According to the Wind primary industry classification, the information technology sector performed best in June, with a gain of 4.65%, a significant improvement from May. This was mainly due to the substantial rise in the underlying stocks of the information technology sector, and its increase ranked first among the Wind primary industries. The market risk appetite increased significantly compared to the previous month. In addition, the underlying stocks of the financial and materials industries ranked second and third in terms of gains, but the convertible bonds did not show a significant increase. The industries where the underlying stocks and convertible bonds performed in opposite directions were consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, and consumer discretionary [4][22]. - In terms of convertible bond investment suggestions, as the uncertainty in the macro - environment continues, the option attribute of convertible bonds will further play a role. The dual - low strategy, which is both offensive and defensive, is beneficial for grasping the asymmetry of up and down movements. In terms of industry selection, it is believed that in July, the equity market tends to bet on policy expectations and interim report performance, and the risk appetite is difficult to rebound in the short term. Therefore, dividend - paying assets have more advantages in an uncertain environment, while the technology sector mainly benefits from the elasticity brought by policy catalysts [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - **Overall performance**: In June, the risk appetite of the equity market rebounded, but convertible bonds underperformed. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.98% from June 1 - 27, and the CSI All - Share Index rose 3.13%. Year - to - date, the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index increased by 6.65% and 3.43% respectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index underperformed the CSI 500 (-0.42pct) and the CSI 1000 (-1.17pct) [3][12]. - **By price classification**: In June, the Wind Low - price Convertible Bond Index rose 3.35%, significantly higher than the high - price (+2.52%) and medium - price (+2.72%) indices. Year - to - date, low - price convertible bonds (+6.99%) performed better than medium - price (+5.93%) and high - price (+4.76%) ones [3][13]. - **By convertible bond outstanding**: In June, small - cap convertible bonds slightly outperformed medium - and large - cap ones. The Wind Large - cap (+2.92%) and Medium - cap (+2.99%) Convertible Bond Indices performed basically the same, while the small - cap index had the largest increase (+3.23%). Year - to - date, the small - cap index (+10.26%) had a significantly higher increase than the large - cap index (+5.68%) and the medium - cap index (+5.25%) [16]. - **By credit rating**: In June, AA+ (+3.8%) and AA - and below (+3.6%) convertible bonds had relatively large increases. AAA (+2.4%) and AA (+2.86%) convertible bonds also achieved good returns. Year - to - date, low - rated convertible bonds still significantly outperformed high - rated ones, especially AA - and below convertible bonds, with a cumulative increase of up to 11.55% [3][18]. - **By industry**: The information technology industry's underlying stocks and convertible bonds rose significantly, and there was a large divergence between the underlying stocks and convertible bonds in the consumer staples sector. The information technology sector had a gain of 4.65% in June. The financial and materials industries' underlying stocks had relatively large increases, but the convertible bonds did not rise significantly. The industries where the underlying stocks and convertible bonds performed in opposite directions were consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, and consumer discretionary [4][22]. - **By strategy index**: In June, the dual - low strategy and the high - price low - premium strategy had similar increases. The dual - low strategy index with bond floor protection and underlying stock elasticity rose 2.45% in June and 6.47% year - to - date. In contrast, the high - price low - premium strategy, which focuses more on equity characteristics, rose 2.44% in June and 5.22% year - to - date, performing weaker overall than the dual - low strategy with bond floor protection [29]. 2. Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Suggestions 2.1 Strategy Suggestion: The Dual - Low Strategy is Both Offensive and Defensive - **June dual - low portfolio performance**: The June dual - low portfolio constructed included 44 targets. The top three industries with the largest number of targets were basic chemicals (8), banks (6), and light manufacturing (5). From June 1 to 27, the portfolio's return was 1.5% (equal - weighted allocation without individual bond screening), underperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 2pct [32]. - **July dual - low portfolio recommendation**: In July, the standard for the dual - low value was adjusted to the bottom 5%, further narrowing the scope of targets to 22. The industries with the largest number of targets were basic chemicals (5), banks (4), and light manufacturing (2). The average convertible bond price, conversion value, and premium rate of the portfolio were 119 yuan, 109 yuan, and 10% respectively [35]. 2.2 Allocation Suggestion: Continue to Be Optimistic about Dividend - Paying and Technology Sectors - The technology sector's previous valuation adjustment was sufficient, the trading congestion declined, and it has now returned to the cost - effective range. It is recommended to focus on the highly prosperous robotics sector and related targets for self - controllability [37]. - High - dividend targets (banks, utilities) are favored during the interest rate decline period. Against the backdrop of the decline in the risk - free yield, the high dividends of bank stocks are more attractive. However, it should be noted that the outstanding scale of bank convertible bonds is decreasing, and attention should mainly be paid to the remaining low - price bank convertible bonds [7][37].

Market Performance - The bond market showed a more subdued performance on May 29, with government bond futures closing lower across the board, and interbank bond yields generally rising by 1-2 basis points [1][2] - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.65% to 118.690, while the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.26% to 108.475 [2] Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" rose by 1.25 basis points to 1.695%, and the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开10" increased by 2.5 basis points to 1.7385% [2] - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.37 basis points to 4.477% [3] Monetary Policy Insights - Institutions believe that monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose orientation and flexible operations, with room for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [1][7] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1.5%-1.8% in the second half of the year [1][7] Market Activity - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan on that day [5] - The Shibor short-term rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate remaining flat at 1.411% and the 7-day rate rising by 2.4 basis points to 1.602% [5] Investment Strategies - Xiangcai Securities recommends a dual-low strategy focusing on dividend assets and technology sectors, particularly in robotics, to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns [6][7] - CITIC Securities anticipates a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for the year, but expects marginal slowing of economic growth momentum in the second half [7]

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares has been lackluster this year, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index declining, while the convertible bond market has shown strong performance, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising over 3% year-to-date, significantly outperforming A-share indices [1] - As of May 25, 2023, 10 bond funds (Class A shares) have seen net values increase by over 7% this year, with notable funds including Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A, China Europe Convertible Bond A, and Huabao Convertible Bond A [1] - Some non-convertible bond funds also heavily invest in convertible bonds, such as Huashang Fengli Enhanced Open A, which has seen a net value increase of 11.45% this year, ranking first among bond funds [1] Group 2 - Private equity firms are also heavily invested in convertible bonds, with data showing that by the end of last year, nine hundred billion private equity firms collectively held 49 convertible bonds among the top ten holders, with a total market value of approximately 3.181 billion yuan [2] - Specific private equity firms like Ruijun Asset and He Sheng Asset hold more than five convertible bonds each, with significant market values, including Ruijun Asset holding 19 convertible bonds with a total market value of about 2.545 billion yuan [2] - Despite the overall strength of the convertible bond market, some bonds have been downgraded due to deteriorating fundamentals, with several bonds being placed on watch lists this year due to issues such as performance losses and increased debt pressure [2] Group 3 - Convertible bonds have been recognized as an important investment category for "fixed income plus" funds this year, benefiting from an optimized supply-demand structure, with a focus on low price and low valuation strategies [3] - Current market analysis indicates that the prices of balanced and debt-oriented convertible bonds are at neutral points from a long-term perspective, while equity-oriented convertible bonds still have room for price increases [3] - The overall supply of convertible bonds has weakened in recent years, and in a low-interest-rate environment, the motivation for companies to finance through convertible bonds may decrease, potentially impacting future valuations [3]