中信证券称，增量资金入市不会是2026年市场迈上一个新台阶的主要因素。2026年最大的预期差来自于 外需与内需的平衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去 年末的资金热度并不算高，在人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 1月5日，时隔34个交易日，上证指数盘中重回4000点。截至发稿，上证指数涨0.85%，报4002.40点。保 险股领涨，脑机接口、半导体等题材活跃。 中信建投指出，A股跨年行情如期展开，今年元旦市场面临的流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年。 人民币汇率保持坚挺，有利的外部环境或将推动A股元旦后迎来"开门红"行情。同时国内流动性环境整 体宽松，也有利于跨年行情的展开。人民币升值、科技板块利好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善及资金面 积极信号等多重利好共同推动港股开年大涨，这些利好也同样有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 ...

"在投资的路上，我们都需要持续进步""弱水三千，我只要取属于我的那一瓢""希望2026年的收益能超 过2025年""2026年会更关注产业层面的机会""希望2026年的A股市场能够更稳健、平稳地发展"……一位 位投资者对2026年A股市场表达期许。 2025年，A股市场持续上涨，上证指数一度站上4000点，A股总市值、成交额、融资余额等连创纪录。 2026年资本市场的画卷即将展开，投资者对2026年A股市场充满期待。业内人士表示，2026年我国宏观 经济有望在政策支持下保持稳健复苏态势，A股市场资金面有望保持活跃，基本面重要性进一步上升， 全年市场有望延续上行趋势。 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 马爽 政策加码可期 夯实经济回升基础 "夯实基础、全面发力""双宽松护航""更上层阶""乘势而上"……梳理多家券商对2026年国内宏观经济展 望的关键词可见，作为"十五五"开局之年，政策协同推动经济稳健复苏已成共识。尽管面临外部环境变 化与内部结构调整，但中国宏观经济有望在政策支持下延续稳健复苏态势。 前瞻性政策部署已筑牢根基。2025年末召开的中央经济工作会议明确"稳中求进、提质增效"的政策取 向，为2026年政策发力定调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for China's economy in 2026, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts in promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and strengthening exports to activate internal growth momentum despite a complex external environment [2][3]. Economic Growth Drivers - Consumption is highlighted as the main engine of economic growth, contributing 53.5% to GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a projected increase to 56.6% of GDP in 2024 [2]. - The article notes a significant gap in service consumption between China and countries like the U.S. and South Korea, indicating potential for growth in this area [2]. - Investment in high-tech industries is identified as a key growth area, with a focus on sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials, supported by national policies aimed at technological self-reliance [3]. Export Resilience - Despite global trade slowdowns, China's exports are expected to remain resilient due to market diversification and an improved product structure, shifting from labor-intensive goods to high-value products [3]. Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 is expected to remain proactive, with ample room for both fiscal and monetary measures to ensure stable economic performance [3]. Asset Allocation Insights - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain a slow bull trend, driven by government support for capital market stability and a solid liquidity foundation [4]. - The technology sector is projected to be a core investment focus, with significant advancements in AI and a complete industrial ecosystem emerging in China [5]. - Gold is expected to see strong demand as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves [5].

近日，中邮保险增持四川路桥，完成中邮保险年内的第四次举牌，险资"长钱"加速入市。 随着中邮保险的举牌成功，今年险资的举牌次数达到39次，仅次于2015年的62次，为历史第二高。回顾 2025年险资举牌行为，呈现出举牌热情高涨、单一标的获多次举牌、举牌标的集中于H股等特点。业内 人士分析认为，预计2026年这一趋势仍将延续。从举牌资产所属板块来看，传统板块仍具有压舱石地 位，但科技板块的比重有望增加。 H股成险资举牌重地 险资举牌热潮或将延续 12月18日晚间，四川路桥披露的信息显示，中邮保险对其累计持股达4.35亿股，占公司总股本5.00%， 正式完成举牌。 这并非是中邮保险首次出手，此前它已经相继布局东航物流、绿色动力环保H股及中国通号H股。 类似的举牌动作近期并不鲜见。12月初，瑞众人寿就公告称，12月5日买入青岛啤酒H股20万股，累计 持有青岛啤酒H股3276.4万股，占该上市公司H股股本的5%，由此触发举牌。 而在11月26日，泰康人寿也发布了举牌复宏汉霖H股的相关信息，披露其通过受托人泰康资产管理（香 港）有限公司（以下简称"泰康资产香港"）管理的账户，于11月20日在二级市场买入复宏汉霖H股51. ...

近日，中邮保险增持四川路桥，完成中邮保险年内的第四次举牌，险资"长钱"加速入市。 随着中邮保险的举牌成功，今年险资的举牌次数达到39次，仅次于2015年的62次，为历史第二高。回顾 2025年险资举牌行为，呈现出举牌热情高涨、单一标的获多次举牌、举牌标的集中于H股等特点。业内 人士分析认为，预计2026年这一趋势仍将延续。从举牌资产所属板块来看，传统板块仍具有压舱石地 位，但科技板块的比重有望增加。 H股成险资举牌重地 12月18日晚间，四川路桥披露的信息显示，中邮保险对其累计持股达4.35亿股，占公司总股本5.00%， 正式完成举牌。 这并非是中邮保险首次出手，此前它已经相继布局东航物流、绿色动力环保H股及中国通号H股。 类似的举牌动作近期并不鲜见。12月初，瑞众人寿就公告称，12月5日买入青岛啤酒H股20万股，累计 持有青岛啤酒H股3276.4万股，占该上市公司H股股本的5%，由此触发举牌。 华创证券分析师陈海椰表示，近年险资举牌热情持续升温，今年举牌次数显著高于往年，仅次于2015年 的62次，这一现象或可体现出险资对优质股权投资价值的深度挖掘。从行业分布来看，若不考虑后续增 持情况，险资举牌标的主要集 ...

权益市场，我们的观点也是八个字：风险可控，趋势未满。其实也能看出我们的核心思路，一是风险层面，我们认为风险主要来自市场信心和流动性层面。 比如今日市场受一些传闻影响，投资者可能对流动性产生一定担忧，而且叠加进入年底，流动性或阶段性出现波动，但这样的风险其实是可控的。"趋势未 满"指的是我们认为暂时开启下一波主升浪，可能还需要一定时间的震荡消化。接下来就从节奏上、空间上、方向上三个方向，跟大家分享我们对近期权益 市场的观点。 所以综合节奏、空间、方向来看，我们认为现在的市场处在风险可控、趋势未满的格局，逢低加仓、逢低布局是我们当下比较推荐的思路。 风险提示： 节奏上我们总结了八个字：上涨中继，震荡整理。首先从技术面来看，指数多次上攻未果以后，重回下方的震荡区间，阶段性压力得到了交易层面的确认， 这其实是引起近期市场中等幅度回调的核心原因。资金面来看，成交量呈现萎缩态势，此前每日成交常维持在2万亿甚至2.5万亿以上，高峰期更可达3万亿 以上的高举高打态势，但现在连续上攻的动能已经出现了阶段性的衰减，最近的每日成交几乎在1.5到2万亿之间。所以我们认为从节奏上来看，现在处于一 个上涨中继的平台期，震荡整理大概率是未 ...

截至2025年12月中旬，首批26只浮动费率基金成立迄今将满半年，浮动费率基金将基金管理费与投资者 的持有期限及持有期间的基金业绩表现挂钩，也吸引了更多投资者的关注和资金流入，形成了良性循 环。 其中，成立于7月15日的华商致远回报混合基金，由华商基金权益投资副总监张明昕管理，以持有人利 益为先，充分发挥华商基金主动管理优势，力争持续提升投资者的投资体验。 张明昕 特许金融分析师（CFA） 华商基金权益投资副总监 华商致远回报混合基金经理 首批浮动费率基金的整体表现是投资策略、行业配置和选股能力的综合体现。华商基金张明昕在华商致 远回报混合基金季报中明确表示，他在"板块处于底部且产业出现明显边际变化的时刻重仓了海外AI算 力为代表的科技板块"。 注：以上信息摘自华商致远回报混合基金2025年3季报 据悉，浮动费率基金最大的亮点是强化了管理人和投资者的利益共担，有望推动管理人更加注重锻造自 身投研能力，重视基金长期超额收益，以提升投资者获得感为核心。 对于投资者而言，浮动费率基金的推出并不意味着"稳赚不赔"，在面对浮动费率基金时不应依赖过往的 短期信息进行简单决策。理解并认同基金的投资策略，并对其背后的基金管理 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - The A-share market has shown an overall trend of "short-term correction followed by relatively strong performance, significant decline after external shocks and then a rebound" this year. In the short term, policy expectations are weak, and as the year-end approaches, institutional demand for profit-taking and portfolio adjustment increases, leading to an overall increase in risk aversion. The index lacks guidance and shows an oscillating and volatile state [7][8][13] - The bond market is significantly adjusted, and the risk of a bear market should be limited. It will continue to maintain a low-interest rate environment next year. However, the policy layer's mention of cross-cycle adjustment may indicate that loose policies are difficult to implement in the short term, increasing short-term market volatility. If market sentiment improves in the future, futures have a certain room for a supplementary increase [82] - The shipping market's price increase expectations are fermented again, and the EC rebounds and recovers. The market may conduct intense games around the pre-Spring Festival shipping peak. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 02-04 contract [91][104] Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Review**: The A-share market has shown a trend of "short-term correction followed by relatively strong performance, significant decline after external shocks and then a rebound" this year. In December 8 - December 12, the A-share market oscillated, with small and medium-cap stocks performing more strongly. The growth sector led the rise, while other style sectors recorded declines. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion, along with domestic policy support, are beneficial for the capital market. However, short-term policy expectations are weak, and the index will oscillate [7][8][9][13] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Analysis**: The trading volume of stock index futures has increased, and the open interest has generally risen [14] - **Basis, Inter - Delivery Spread, and Inter - Variety Spread Analysis**: The basis trend is differentiated. The inter - delivery spread of all varieties shows negative values, and the inter - variety spread indicates that small and medium-cap stocks performed relatively better this week [16][20][22] - **Industry Sector Overview**: In terms of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500 by industry, the communication, information, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, while the energy, materials, and consumer sectors led the decline. At the primary industry level, the communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors led the rise, while the coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel sectors led the decline [25][28] - **Valuation Comparison**: As of December 12, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at relatively high levels in the past ten years [30] Treasury Bonds - **This Week's Market Review**: - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The trading data of treasury bond futures is summarized. The market has experienced ups and downs this week. In terms of strategy performance, the short - term futures performed stronger than the spot, and there is a certain positive arbitrage space for the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling the basis for the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds. Currently, it is not recommended to participate in the inter - delivery strategy, and it is recommended to pay attention to the flattening strategy [33][34][38][41][53][55] - **Bond Spot Market**: The spot yields of treasury bonds have decreased in the short - term and increased in the long - term. The yields of US bonds have also decreased in the short - term and increased in the long - term [64] - **Funding Situation**: The central bank has made continuous net injections, and the inter - bank funding is loose. Funding rates remain low, and there is no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [74][76] - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: The yields of most interest rate swap varieties have declined this week, and liquidity expectations are stable [80] - **Market Analysis**: - **Recent Market Logic**: The domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, and the bond market's risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market is limited. However, the short - term implementation of loose policies is difficult, increasing short - term market volatility. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a supplementary increase. Currently, the configuration demand is still cautious [82] - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: In November, exports were stronger than expected, imports were weaker than expected, and PPI improvement was also weaker than expected. The demand side continues to maintain the characteristic of "strong external and weak internal" [83] - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: Important meetings have set the tone for a loose monetary policy next year, but the possibility of short - term implementation is low. Next week's economic data is expected to maintain moderate recovery, and the support of funding for the bond market may weaken, with the market likely to maintain a weak oscillation [88] - **Next Week's Open Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar**: A total of 7485 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature next week, and the November national economic activity data will be released [90] Shipping Index - **Market Review**: The expectation of price increases has fermented again, and the EC has rebounded and recovered. The market is conducting games around the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the 02 contract has recovered and closed up [91] - **Container Shipping Market Situation**: - **Spot Market**: The freight rates of ocean routes have shown a differentiated trend, with the rates of European and American routes both declining. Shipowners have announced price increases for the second half of December and January, boosting the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival [96] - **Container Shipping Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the European container capacity in December is at a relatively high level in the off - season, and the potential capacity is expected to continue to grow. The possibility of full resumption of navigation in the Red Sea in the first quarter of next year is not high, but if the cease - fire is stable, the probability of gradual resumption in 2026 is large. On the demand side, it is difficult for the demand side to be significantly stimulated [101][102] - **Market Outlook**: The joint price increases of major shipowners may continue to boost the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 02 - 04 contract [104]

在权益市场方面，刘郁认为，2026年的重点任务中，坚持内需主导排第一位，其中包括提振消费、释放 服务消费潜力。考虑到今年市场对消费行情预期偏弱(万得消费大类指数今年以来上涨13.40%，明显低 于万得全A的23.85%)，若2026年消费政策加力，有望推动阶段性行情，关注消费板块的修复趋势。此 外，科技和"反内卷"紧随其后。科技方面，会议强调"加紧培育壮大新动能"，新旧动能交替仍将是2026 年的主要线索，科技板块如AI、半导体、机器人等值得关注；"反内卷"方面，会议强调"制定和实施进 一步深化国资国企改革方案"，意味着"反内卷"不只与光伏、锂电相关，部分国企也将成为"反内卷"的 整治方向。此外，会议提到"扎实推进海南自由贸易港建设""推动海洋经济高质量发展"，相关题材也有 望在2026年出现阶段性行情。 中证报中证网讯(王珞)12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。华西证券（002926）首席经济 学家刘郁表示：2026年是逆周期与跨周期并重之年，对经济增长更加重视质量。从"内需不足"到"供强 需弱"的表述变化，指向扩内需、"反内卷"同步推进，以扭转低效竞争导致的价格低迷状态。政策方 面，存量政策 ...

你说今天市场走弱吧？CPO他两连涨，而且上涨力度还不少并创新高，明显有资金流入这个方向，试想想这么大的一个题材，如果主力是出货的，怎么可能 越出越高。同样的道理，白酒也是一样的，不存在主力资金在流入，资金流入了反而每天新低。也就是说，现在的盘面依旧如11月那样，只是结构化存量博 弈，有些板块受资金青睐，有些板块被资金抛弃，至于谁对谁错一时间无法判断，但对市场来说，看好科技的今天其实是有收益的，其它板块基本凉凉。再 往深一些说，连续反弹两天只是技术修复而已，如果资金流入结束科技板块进入轮动，又可能引出低位题材重新表现。对了，近期福建板块是最强的，游资 炒妖非常明显，市场也认可这种题材，更说明当下除了妖就是妖，没有其它新的故事。这个时候除了抱团，我实在想不出有什么好机会，至于抱团什么时候 又不行了，那是后话了，别想太远，珍惜当下。 中线策略分析：【整体情况】 今天买盘力量1300+，比昨天少，但能维持在周一的水平，所以我们还看到市场是有主线的，今天市场回落卖盘力量只有360+，未达散户流出的极值，抛压 并不大，正是这样的情况市场就涨不动了，可想而知如果机构也出逃，市场重心继续下移的概率很大。另一个情况是T-5、T ...