Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the weekly change rate of the "total heat" indicator for broad-based indices. It selects the index with the highest heat change rate for investment, while staying out of the market if the "Other" group has the highest rate[7][13][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for each broad-based index (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "Other"). 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-period moving average (MA2). 3. On the last trading day of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash. **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of capturing short-term market sentiment shifts based on heat changes[13][16] - **Model Name**: Concept Heat TOP and BOTTOM Portfolios **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies the hottest concepts each week and constructs two portfolios based on the highest and lowest heat stocks within these concepts[30][32][34] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select the top 5 concepts with the largest weekly heat change rates. 2. Exclude the bottom 20% of stocks in terms of market capitalization within the selected concepts. 3. Construct the "TOP" portfolio by equally weighting the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each concept. 4. Construct the "BOTTOM" portfolio by equally weighting the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each concept. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures behavioral biases in concept-driven markets, where low-heat stocks in hot concepts tend to generate excess returns over time[30][32][34] --- Model Backtesting Results - **Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 8.74% - Maximum Drawdown: 23.5% - 2025 YTD Return: 14.7%[16] - **Concept Heat BOTTOM Portfolio**: - Annualized Return: 15.71% - Maximum Drawdown: 28.89% - 2025 YTD Return: 25.5%[34] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Total Heat Indicator **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aggregates the browsing, watchlist, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market, and scaled by 10,000[7] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat score. The range of the indicator is [0, 10,000][7] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor serves as a proxy for market sentiment and attention, effectively capturing behavioral patterns such as overpricing or underreaction at the stock level[7] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Total Heat Indicator**: - No specific backtesting results provided for this factor in isolation

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.25% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 899.49 million shares and a transaction amount of 1,158.93 billion yuan, representing a 5.34% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Building Materials: Up by 2.96% with a transaction amount of 239.23 billion yuan, an increase of 34.74% from the previous day, led by Hanjian Heshan, which rose by 10.08% [1] - Building Decoration: Up by 2.55% with a transaction amount of 298.91 billion yuan, an increase of 12.71%, led by Zhongshe Consulting, which surged by 21.16% [1] - Steel: Up by 2.00% with a transaction amount of 123.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.70%, led by Xining Special Steel, which increased by 10.04% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Banks: Down by 1.28% with a transaction amount of 243.57 billion yuan, an increase of 37.11%, led by Xiamen Bank, which fell by 3.93% [2] - Non-bank Financials: Down by 0.49% with a transaction amount of 425.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.82%, led by Hualin Securities, which dropped by 4.22% [2] - Computers: Down by 0.45% with a transaction amount of 863.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.84%, led by Hehe Information, which fell by 5.52% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept stocks, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities in this sector [2][4][6]. Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index hovering around the 25,000-point mark [1][14]. - The A-share market also showed overall stability, with major indices exhibiting minor volatility but performing relatively well [3]. Sector Performance - In terms of industry sectors, construction materials, construction decoration, and steel sectors led the gains, while banking, non-bank financials, computing, and media sectors saw declines [4]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept stocks demonstrated strong performance, with multiple stocks reaching significant daily gains, including Wuxin Tunnel Equipment and Jikang Technology, both hitting a 30% limit up [4][5]. Notable Stocks - Specific stocks within the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept saw remarkable increases, such as: - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment: +29.99% with a market cap of 7.405 billion [5] - Jikang Technology: +29.99% with a market cap of 5.899 billion [5] - China Energy Engineering: +10.20% with a market cap of 117.152 billion [6] - China Longgong experienced a significant surge, with its stock price increasing by over 40% following a positive profit forecast, projecting a net profit increase of 29% to 45% for the first half of 2025 [13][17]. Investment Insights - Huatai Securities anticipates that the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which commenced on July 19, will lead to substantial investments in turbine and generator businesses, estimated between 53.5 billion to 95.4 billion [6][7]. - The project is expected to boost demand for construction materials and related industries, benefiting leading companies in the sector due to the high technical standards and material requirements [7].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - **Stock Index**: On July 21, the four major A-share stock indexes were all strong. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.72% to close at 3,559.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 11,007.49 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.87% to close at 2,296.88 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.04% to close at 1,007.89 points. Market turnover was 1.7271 trillion yuan, an increase of 133.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, building materials (+6.06%), building decoration (+3.79%), and steel (+3.44%) led the gains; banks (-0.77%), composites (-0.34%), and computers (-0.31%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IC>IM>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,002/121/1,291 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -9, -127, -46, and 18.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +12.6, -0.6, -8.2, and -3.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 149.06, 105.71, 20.81, and 1.04 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were -12.52%, -9.53%, -2.83%, and -0.21% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 23%, 16%, 32%, and 45% respectively [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 21, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.363, up 1.19 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.513, up 1.69 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.613, up 1.21 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.958, up 2.78 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.023, and an IRR of 1.63%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.031, and an IRR of 1.68%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of +1.8 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.041, and an IRR of 1.75%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.033, and an IRR of 1.33% [2]. - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 170.7 billion yuan and withdrew 226.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2]. 2. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for medium - and long - term investors [2]. 3. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market has recently contracted in terms of prosperity, while the manufacturing industry has seen a recovery in prosperity as the industrial added value in June exceeded the same period [11]. 4. Tables and Figures - **Table 1**: Shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [6]. - **Table 2**: Displays the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including information on code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [7]. - **Table 3**: Presents the changes in the short - end funding rate market, including SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 rates compared with yesterday, one week ago, and one month ago [11]. - **Figure 1**: Illustrates the term structure of treasury bond spot prices [8][9]. - **Figure 2**: Tracks domestic medium - level economic data, based on the comparison of medium - level data in each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year month - on - month), scored according to the degree of change [12][13].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.32% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 657.44 million shares and a transaction value of 851.29 billion yuan, an increase of 1.41% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Building Materials: Increased by 2.00% with a transaction value of 197.98 billion yuan, led by Hanjian Heshan, which rose by 10.08% [1]. - Beauty Care: Increased by 0.85% with a transaction value of 39.64 billion yuan, led by Yiyi Co., which rose by 9.99% [1]. - Building Decoration: Increased by 0.64% with a transaction value of 222.97 billion yuan, led by Zhubo Design, which rose by 20.02% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Banks: Decreased by 1.38% with a transaction value of 180.32 billion yuan, led by Xiamen Bank, which fell by 3.53% [2]. - Non-Bank Financials: Decreased by 1.20% with a transaction value of 324.12 billion yuan, led by Hualin Securities, which fell by 5.42% [2]. - Computers: Decreased by 1.05% with a transaction value of 642.92 billion yuan, led by Zhongyuan Haike, which fell by 5.29% [2]. Summary of Trading Data - A total of 1,488 stocks rose, with 71 hitting the daily limit up, while 3,779 stocks fell, with 6 hitting the daily limit down [1]. - The overall market sentiment showed a mixed performance across various sectors, with significant activity in building materials and beauty care, while banking and non-bank financial sectors faced declines [1][2].

Group 1 - The current policy is positively oriented and is expected to boost the building materials sector, which has been in decline alongside real estate in recent years [1] - High-frequency data indicates that various sub-industries within building materials have reached profit bottoms, with cement and fiberglass expected to bottom out in Q1 2024, and float glass in September 2024 [1] - Demand-side factors include significant government meetings focusing on stabilizing the real estate market, with urban renewal initiatives likely to drive demand for construction materials such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings [1] Group 2 - The building materials ETF (159745) is the largest in the market, closely tracking the CSI All-Share Building Materials Index, and is expected to benefit from the recovery in consumption and the real estate market [2] - Investors without stock accounts can access building materials investment opportunities through the building materials ETF's connecting fund (013020) [3] - As of July 21, 2025, the building materials ETF has a scale of 1.111 billion, ranking first among similar products [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant inflow of over 500 million units into the building materials ETF (159745), driven by optimistic market sentiment regarding demand recovery due to the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which began construction on July 19, will involve the establishment of five tiered power stations over a ten-year period, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [1] - The project is expected to stimulate demand for essential building materials such as steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, and waterproof materials, acting as a stabilizer against short-term demand fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that a growth stabilization plan for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, is set to be released, indicating a move towards supply-side reform 2.0 [1] - The building materials ETF (159745) is the largest in the market, closely tracking the CSI All Share Construction Materials Index, and is positioned to benefit from the recovery in consumption and the real estate market [2] - As of July 21, 2025, the building materials ETF has a scale of 1.111 billion yuan, ranking first among three similar products, indicating strong market interest and potential for growth in the building materials sector [2]

Group 1 - The "Yarlung Zangbo River" hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost demand for construction materials, estimated to be 4-5 times that of the Three Gorges Dam project [2] - The construction materials ETF (159745) has seen a surge, with a nearly 3% increase today and a net inflow of over 4.4 billion yuan yesterday, currently holding over 11 billion yuan in assets [1][11] - The central government's investment in Tibet, amounting to 317.54 billion yuan across 75 projects, is anticipated to further increase demand for construction materials, particularly cement [3] Group 2 - The ongoing urban renewal policies are expected to drive demand for various construction materials such as pipes, waterproofing, and coatings, leading to significant improvements in the fundamentals of construction companies [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is implementing a new round of measures to optimize supply in key industries, including construction materials, which may enhance market performance [5] - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the construction materials index and has been experiencing continuous net inflows, indicating strong investor interest [7]

Market Overview - The market opened high and closed strong, with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year, closing at 3559.79 and 2296.88 respectively, with increases of 0.72% and 0.87% [2][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.7 trillion, an increase of 128.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [6] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included construction materials (6.06%), construction decoration (3.79%), and steel (3.44%), while the underperforming sectors were banking (-0.77%) and computer technology (-0.31%) [3][4] - Concept indices showed strong performance in sectors such as civil explosives (8.51%) and cement (6.85%), while sectors like cross-border payment (CIPS) and digital currency saw declines of -0.90% and -0.67% respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, supported by strong performance in major infrastructure stocks and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with expectations for continued growth in domestic demand and technology sectors [4][6] - Key upcoming events include the Politburo meeting at the end of the month, which will provide further policy direction for the second half of the year, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [6]

Market Overview - On July 21, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.67%, the STAR 50 was up by 0.04%, the CSI 1000 gained 0.92%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.87%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.68% [4] - The best-performing sectors on July 21 were building materials (+6.06%), building decoration (+3.79%), steel (+3.44%), non-ferrous metals (+2.41%), and basic chemicals (+2.21%). The worst-performing sectors were banking (-0.77%), comprehensive (-0.34%), computer (-0.31%), home appliances (-0.03%), and food and beverage (+0.07%) [4][3] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on July 21 was 1.7271 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.051 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][3] Industry Insights - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project commenced on July 19, which is expected to significantly boost demand for construction machinery due to its high investment and large power generation capacity [5] - The opening of the Yarlung hydropower project is anticipated to drive substantial demand for construction machinery [5] - Catalysts for investment opportunities include a recovery in real estate and infrastructure demand exceeding expectations, an increase in overseas market share, and faster-than-expected project progress [5]