国能集团常规能源整合平台，预计2025-2026 年投产8GW 火电、4GW 水电。公司为国家能源集团常规 能源整合平台，享受集团内火电、水电项目的优先发展权以及收并购权。截至2023 年底，集团已投产 未上市火电约80GW、水电8GW（含在建）。预计公司将在2025-2026 年投产8GW 火电与4GW 水电， 新增火电资产为发达地区的大功率机组，水电主要为四川大渡河流域机组（3.5GW）。公司计划2025 年资本性支出741 亿，与2024 年基本相当，但2025 年新能源资本性支出计划约280 亿，较2024 年减少 37 亿元。公司计划2025 年新开工新能源5.2GW，较2024 年减少3.4GW，目前在建风电212 万千瓦，主 要在内蒙、甘肃等地；在建光伏343 万千瓦，主要在天津、新疆、内蒙等地。 事件：1）公司发布2025 年半年报，上半年实现营收776.55 亿元，同比下降9.52%；归母净利润36.87亿 元，同比下降45.11%；扣非后归母净利润34.1 亿元，同比增长56.12%。对应单二季度归母净利润18.76 亿元，同比下降61.96%；单二季度扣非后归母净利润18.03 亿元，同 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 风险提示：电价不及预期，来水不及预期，煤价上涨超预期。 | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 180,999 | 179,182 | 169,500 | 173,053 | 172,481 | | 同比增长率（%） | -7.02% | -1.00% | -5.40% | 2.10% | -0.33% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,609 | 9,831 | 6,809 | 7,614 | 7,901 | | 同比增长率（%） | 98.80% | 75.28% | -30.74% | 11.81% | 3.78% | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.31 | 0.55 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.44 | | ROE（%） | 11.50% | 17.54% | 11.59% ...

深圳商报记者 詹钰叶 上市公司中报进入密集披露期，多家上市公司发布分红预案，拟分红总金额已突破千亿元大关。其中， 中国移动拿出超500亿元分红，中国电信、吉比特等拿出逾七成净利润分红。业内建议，投资者在配置 高股息资产时应规避筹码拥挤板块，重视预期股息。 据同花顺数据，至记者8月21日发稿时为止，共有172家A股公司披露了中期分红方案（含董事会预案与 股东大会预案），拟分红总金额已超过了千亿元。其中，中国移动在公告中提到，拟向股东派发中期股 息每股2.75港元（含税），折合人民币每股2.5025元（含税）。本次公司拟派发股息约为540亿元人民 币。 三大运营商之一的中国电信披露中期分配方案公告显示，公司拟每股派0.1812元人民币（含税），合计 派发现金红利165.81亿元（含税），占上半年归属于公司股东的净利润的72%。中国联通宣布每10股拟 派发现金股利1.112元（含税），拟向股东派发共计约34.77亿元（含税）的股利。 同样拿出超七成利润来"派红包"的还有吉比特——公司本周宣布拟每10股派现66元（含税），预计分红 总额约4.74亿元，占当期归母净利润比例高达73.46%。大手笔分红的A股公司还有牧原 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.26% to 25,241.29 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.24% to 5,592.3 points, the National Enterprises Index increasing by 0.23% to 9,054.09 points, and the Red Chip Index gaining 0.18% to 4,373.41 points [1] Company Performance - Sinopec Oilfield Services reported revenue of approximately 37.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit of approximately 492 million yuan, up 9% [2] - Leap Motor achieved revenue of 24.25 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 174%, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, turning around from a loss of 2.21 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Wanwu Cloud reported revenue of 18.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.11%, and a net profit of 792 million yuan, up 3.88% [3] - China Biopharmaceuticals recorded revenue of 17.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and a net profit of 3.39 billion yuan, up 140.2% [3] - Tongcheng Travel reported revenue of 9.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, with adjusted EBITDA of 2.34 billion yuan, up 35.2%, and a net profit of 1.56 billion yuan, up 28.6% [3] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical reported revenue of 7.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.27%, and a net profit of 3.135 billion yuan, up 15.02% [4] - Meitu reported revenue of 1.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and a net profit of 397 million yuan, up 30.8% [5] - Huabao International reported revenue of 1.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit of 118 million yuan, up 298.1% [6] - Andeli Juice reported revenue of 948 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%, and a net profit of 201 million yuan, up 50.3% [6] Earnings Warnings and Surprises - Road King issued a profit warning, expecting a mid-term net loss of approximately 1.9 to 2.1 billion HKD [7] - Hui Kee Group also issued a profit warning, anticipating a mid-term net loss of approximately 800 to 900 million HKD, a year-on-year increase [8] - Yunfeng Financial issued a profit alert, expecting a mid-term net profit of approximately 480 million HKD, a significant year-on-year increase of about 139% [9] - Heung Kong Holdings issued a profit warning, expecting a mid-term net loss of 130 to 160 million HKD [10] - JS Global Life issued a profit warning, expecting a mid-term net loss of no more than 56 million USD, turning from profit to loss [11] - United Pharmaceutical issued a profit alert, expecting a mid-term net profit of approximately 1.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase [12] - Orange Sky Golden Harvest issued a profit alert, expecting a net profit exceeding 125 million HKD, turning from loss to profit [13] - Ximei Resources issued a profit alert, expecting a mid-term net profit of approximately 81.8 to 100 million HKD, a year-on-year increase [14] - International Resources issued a profit alert, expecting a mid-term net profit of approximately 59 million USD, a year-on-year increase [15] - Siheng Holdings issued a profit alert, expecting a mid-term net profit exceeding 50 million HKD, turning from loss to profit [16] Insurance Sector - New China Life Insurance reported cumulative original premium income of 137.806 billion yuan for the first seven months, a year-on-year increase of 23% [17] Automotive Sector - Leap Motor delivered 50,129 vehicles in July [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, specifically recommending investment in Changjiang Electric for its high dividend asset allocation value [1]. Core Insights - Changjiang Electric has announced a shareholder dividend return plan for the next five years (2026-2030), committing to a minimum cash dividend of 70% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. - The report highlights a decrease in electricity prices, with the average grid purchase price in July 2025 down 3% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month [36]. - The report tracks key industry data, including a 3.7% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption in H1 2025, with total consumption reaching 4.84 trillion kWh [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW Utility Index fell by 0.55% during the week of August 11-15, 2025, underperforming compared to the ChiNext Index [8]. - Notable stock performances included a 28.7% increase for Fuan Energy and a 9.4% decrease for Huayin Electric [11]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in H1 2025 was 4.84 trillion kWh, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with growth in all sectors [12]. 2.2. Power Generation - Total power generation in H1 2025 reached 4.54 trillion kWh, a 0.8% year-on-year increase, with declines in thermal and hydro power generation [21]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in July 2025 was 382 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year [36]. 2.4. Thermal Power - As of August 15, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 698 RMB/ton, down 16.51% year-on-year but up 16 RMB/ton week-on-week [45]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 160.34 meters as of August 15, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing a year-on-year decrease [57]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 new nuclear units were approved, indicating a continued positive trend in nuclear power development [72]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks like Changjiang Electric, as well as opportunities in green energy, photovoltaic assets, and thermal power investments [3].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the construction industry, particularly high-dividend construction companies in the Hong Kong market, which is becoming increasingly stringent in its evaluation of these companies [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Trends**: The decline in deposit rates has led investors to pursue dividend yields of 6%-7%, shifting focus from business models to yield considerations [1][3]. - **Selection Criteria for High-Dividend Companies**: Key factors include positive free cash flow, stable operating assets, stable profits and orders, low interest-bearing debt ratios, high major shareholder ownership, and low valuations (PB) [1][4]. - **Dividend Capability Indicators**: Important metrics for assessing dividend capability include the free cash flow/net profit ratio and the actual yield calculated from stock price and annual reports [1][5][7]. Company-Specific Insights - **江河集团 (Jianghe Group)**: Leads with a 7.3% dividend yield, positive free cash flow, low interest-bearing debt ratio, and a commitment to an 80% dividend payout over the next three years [1][8]. - **中国建筑 (China State Construction)**: Positive cash flow from operations and investments, with a free cash flow/net profit ratio of 0.29 and a stable dividend yield of 4.88% [1][8][9]. - **中国铁建 (China Railway Construction) and 中国交建 (China Communications Construction)**: Both companies have seen declines in profits due to PPP suspensions and real estate impairments, but their order growth remains above expectations [1][10]. Financial Performance of Other Companies - **安徽建工 (Anhui Construction)**: Negative free cash flow, 35% interest-bearing debt ratio, and a dividend yield of 5.6% [1][8]. - **隧道股份 (Tunnel Shares)**: Free cash flow/net profit ratio of 2.5, 77% debt ratio, and a dividend yield of 4.95% despite recent profit declines [1][8]. - **四川路桥 (Sichuan Road and Bridge)**: Negative free cash flow/net profit ratio of -0.93, 79% debt ratio, and a commitment to a 60% dividend payout with a yield of 4.93% [1][8]. - **中材国际 (China National Materials)**: Free cash flow/net profit ratio of 0.3, 61% debt ratio, and a dividend yield of 4.89% [1][8]. Challenges Facing the Industry - The construction industry is facing challenges such as declining construction volumes, increased revenue pressure, rising receivables, and financial risk mitigation [1][10][11]. - The period from late August to early September is identified as particularly risky for the industry, suggesting a cautious approach to investment during this time [1][11]. Future Investment Strategies - A recommendation to gradually increase positions in high-dividend assets if mid-year performance is poor, as these assets are favored by long-term investors due to their low valuations and stable returns [1][12]. - Optimism for the fourth quarter is based on expected growth-stabilizing policies, with a suggestion to start accumulating shares in September [1][13]. Conclusion - The construction industry is under scrutiny, with a focus on high-dividend companies. Key indicators for investment include financial stability, dividend capability, and market conditions. Caution is advised in the short term, with a potential for recovery in the fourth quarter.

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the Hong Kong stock market shows insurance capital increasingly acquiring insurance stocks as banks fail to provide stable annual returns above 3%, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend assets like insurance stocks [2][5]. Group 1: Investment Actions - On August 13, China Ping An increased its stake in China Pacific Insurance (CPIC) by approximately 1.74 million shares at a price of HKD 32.07 per share, totaling around HKD 55.84 million, bringing its ownership to about 5.04% of CPIC's total H-share capital, thus meeting the criteria for a stake increase [2][5]. - Following this, on August 14, while the A-share market saw a significant decline, the insurance sector rose by 2.13%, with CPIC's shares increasing by 4.87% [2][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The insurance sector is becoming a preferred investment area for insurance capital as bank stocks have been largely acquired, leaving insurance stocks as the remaining high-dividend, low-valuation options [2][5]. - The last instance of insurance companies acquiring stakes in each other occurred in 2019, highlighting the rarity of such actions in recent years [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - CPIC reported a revenue of CNY 404.09 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, and a net profit of CNY 44.96 billion, up 64.9% [5]. - Since its listing, CPIC has distributed dividends 18 times, totaling CNY 119.28 billion, with a pre-tax dividend rate of 2.86% and a payout ratio of 23.23% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The recent stake increase by China Ping An signals that insurance capital is recognizing the insurance sector's fundamentals as stabilizing and potentially improving [6]. - Analysts note that insurance stocks possess dual dividend attributes, benefiting from both direct dividends and the performance of high-dividend assets in which leading insurers have invested [6]. Group 5: Regulatory and Market Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, insurance capital has engaged in over twenty stake increases in high-dividend sectors, reflecting a significant reallocation of over CNY 1 trillion in insurance capital [7]. - Regulatory changes have prompted insurance companies to increase their equity investments, with stock holdings reaching CNY 2.82 trillion, marking the highest proportion in recent years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The market showed mixed performance on August 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly touching the 3700-point mark, while the Hong Kong-listed dividend low-volatility ETF (512890) demonstrated stable performance amidst short-term fluctuations in fund flows [1][2]. Fund Performance - The dividend low-volatility ETF (512890) closed at 1.202 CNY, up 0.33%, with a half-day trading volume of 274 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.27% [1][2]. - Over the past five trading days, the ETF experienced a net outflow of approximately 510 million CNY, but maintained a net inflow of about 280 million CNY over the last 20 trading days, with a total fund size of 21.464 billion CNY as of August 13, 2025 [1][2]. Holdings and Market Trends - The ETF's major holdings include banks and infrastructure companies, with mixed performance observed among these stocks during the morning session [2][3]. - Recent trends indicate that insurance capital is increasingly investing in high-dividend bank stocks, which may provide substantial incremental capital to the banking sector, potentially benefiting the ETF's core holdings [3]. Management and Investment Strategy - The dividend low-volatility ETF was established on December 19, 2018, and has achieved a total return of 139.42% under the management of fund manager Liu Jun since inception, showcasing strong management capabilities [4]. - The ETF focuses on companies with stable dividends and low volatility, making it suitable for investors seeking steady returns and lower risk, or those looking for bond alternatives [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition of 1 million shares of Zheshang Bank H-shares by Minsheng Life Insurance triggered a stake increase to 5%, marking the seventh listed bank targeted by insurance capital this year [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions - Minsheng Life Insurance purchased 1 million shares of Zheshang Bank H-shares at an average price of HKD 2.77 per share, totaling approximately HKD 2.77 million [1]. - Prior to this acquisition, Minsheng Life held 295 million shares of Zheshang Bank H-shares, representing 4.98% of the bank's total issued H-shares [1]. - Zheshang Bank, established in August 2004, is the 13th listed bank in China with both A and H shares, appealing to insurance capital due to its high dividend assets [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - From 2022 to 2024, Zheshang Bank's cash dividends were reported at CNY 4.466 billion, CNY 4.504 billion, and CNY 4.284 billion, with dividend payout ratios of 37.79%, 31.98%, and 30.12% respectively [2]. - Insurance capital has increasingly targeted high-dividend bank stocks, with a total of seven banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank, being acquired this year [2]. - The trend of insurance capital buying into state-owned and national joint-stock banks is driven by low interest rates, the appeal of high dividend assets, and regulatory encouragement for long-term capital market entry [2]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts note that the current A-share bank sector has a dividend yield of about 4%, while H-shares offer even more significant yield advantages, attracting insurance capital [3]. - The implementation of new accounting standards for small and medium-sized insurance companies starting January 2026 is expected to further increase capital inflow into the banking sector [3]. - Regulatory guidance for new premium inflows and the need to enhance equity allocation in existing assets are likely to provide substantial incremental funds for bank stocks, suggesting potential valuation recovery [3].

Core Insights - The insurance industry is experiencing a significant shift towards long-term equity investments, driven by low interest rates and the need for better asset-liability matching [1][5][6] - Insurance companies are increasingly focusing on high-dividend assets as a stable source of cash flow, with a notable rise in the number of equity investments and strategic shareholdings [2][3][5] - Regulatory reforms are facilitating the establishment of private equity funds by insurance firms, allowing them to invest more heavily in the stock market [2][8] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Insurance companies are restructuring their asset allocations to prioritize long-term equity investments, moving from trading-oriented assets to those that generate stable cash flows [1][3] - The trend of increasing shareholdings in listed companies is evident, with insurance firms triggering shareholding notifications through significant stock purchases [2][3] - High-dividend sectors such as banking, utilities, energy, and technology are particularly favored by insurance investors, reflecting a strategic shift towards stable income generation [2][5] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The establishment of private equity funds is part of a broader regulatory initiative to encourage long-term investments by insurance companies, with over 220 billion yuan approved for various pilot projects [2][8] - New accounting standards are reshaping investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of stable dividend income and reducing reliance on capital gains [6][7] - There are ongoing challenges related to regulatory constraints, including solvency requirements and accounting measurement methods, which may hinder the full potential of insurance capital in equity markets [8][9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The insurance sector is facing pressure from high liability costs and low bond yields, prompting a shift towards equities to enhance returns [5][6] - The demand for high-quality, stable cash flow assets is increasing, with insurance firms actively seeking opportunities in REITs and other equity instruments [3][6] - The industry's asset duration is currently shorter than its liability duration, necessitating a strategic focus on extending asset duration to mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations [5][9]