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中国基础材料:2026 年的遗漏与展望-China Basic Materials_ What was missed and what to look forward to in 2026
2026-01-13 11:56
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Basic Materials** sector in China, with a preference order for 2026 being **copper/gold > aluminum > lithium > coal > steel** [2][4] - The **MSCI China Materials** index is expected to outperform the **MSCI China** index by **3%** in the first week of January 2026, driven by supply disruptions and mergers and acquisitions [2][4] Company-Specific Insights - **Zijin Mining** is highlighted as the top pick for 2026, with a positive profit alert projecting a **2025 net profit** of **RMB 51-52 billion**, representing a **59-62% YoY increase** [4][9] - **Jiangxi Copper (JXC)** has been upgraded to Neutral (N) due to a positive outlook on copper, despite a recent **40%+ share price surge** that has factored in the acquisition of SolGold [2][5] - **Baosteel** and **Angang Steel** have been downgraded to Neutral (N) and Underweight (UW) respectively, due to low steel margins and weaker-than-expected anti-involution efforts [2][5] Market Dynamics - Supply disruptions are expected to continue, with **South32** placing its **Mozal Aluminum smelter** on care and maintenance in March 2026, and a strike at **Capstone Copper's Mantoverde** mine expected to reduce copper supply by **77kt** [4][9] - The **Chinese base metal demand growth** is forecasted to slow to **2.5%** for copper and **1.5%** for aluminum YoY [4][9] Earnings Forecasts - **4Q25 earnings** for steel companies are projected to be the weakest, with **Angang** and **Baosteel** expected to see earnings declines of **86%** and **33%** respectively [4][11] - **Zijin** and **CMOC** are expected to report solid growth, with **CMOC** anticipated to announce a positive profit alert with a **53% YoY increase** [4][11] Stock Recommendations - **Bullish on copper** and **bearish on steel**; **Zijin** remains the top pick for its copper/gold exposure [5][11] - **Hongqiao** and **Chalco** are recommended as buyers on dips due to the positive correlation between aluminum and copper prices [5][11] Regulatory and Policy Impacts - The **Ministry of Commerce** reinstated steel export licensing from January 1, 2026, which may lead to increased near-term exports and keep global prices under pressure [9] - Regulatory uncertainties in lithium mining rights are highlighted, particularly with the cancellation of mining rights affecting **Tianqi** and **Ganfeng** [9] Commodity Price Forecasts - **Copper prices** are forecasted to reach **$12,000/ton** in 1Q26, while **aluminum prices** are expected to stabilize around **$3,000/ton** [12][14] - **Lithium prices** are projected to increase significantly, with battery-grade lithium expected to reach **$17,500/ton** by 2026 [14] Conclusion - The Basic Materials sector in China is poised for a challenging yet opportunistic year in 2026, with significant variations in performance across different commodities and companies. The focus on supply dynamics, regulatory impacts, and strategic acquisitions will be crucial for investors navigating this landscape.
盛达资源:鸿林矿业处于试生产阶段
21智讯1月13日电,盛达资源在投资者关系活动中表示,鸿林矿业目前处于试生产阶段,尚无法准确测 算生产成本,但菜园子铜金矿矿石易选,无冶炼环节,选矿工艺简单且砷含量低,叠加较高的安全生产 投入,整体成本可得到较好控制。 ...
FFLG: Performance Disappointments Outweigh GARP Tilt, A Hold
Seeking Alpha· 2026-01-13 07:59
Group 1 - The article discusses the investment strategies of Vasily Zyryanov, focusing on identifying underpriced equities with strong upside potential and overappreciated companies with inflated valuations [1] - Zyryanov emphasizes the importance of analyzing Free Cash Flow and Return on Capital in addition to profit and sales analysis to gain deeper insights into investments [1] - The research covers a wide range of industries, particularly the energy sector, including oil & gas supermajors, mid-cap, and small-cap exploration & production companies, as well as oilfield services firms [1] Group 2 - Zyryanov acknowledges that while he favors underappreciated and misunderstood equities, some growth stocks may justifiably have premium valuations [1] - The primary goal for investors is to investigate whether the market's current opinion on a stock is accurate or not [1]
全球宏观:2026 年 “PM 问答时间” 结果_ Global Strategy Conference_ Results of our 2026 'PM Question Time'
2026-01-13 02:11
12 January 2026 | 10:28PM GMT Portfolio Strategy Research GLOBAL MACROSCOPE Global Strategy Conference: Results of our 2026 'PM Question Time' We held our 34th annual Global Strategy Conference in London, which was attended by more than 400 clients in person, and more on-line. During the sessions, we surveyed our audience members on their views and outlook. We present the results here, along with our comments and the GS view in each case. When we asked a similar question in last year's conference, we compar ...
Total Metals to provide Loan to Kattegat Mining Inc.
Thenewswire· 2026-01-13 01:40
Core Viewpoint - Total Metals Corp. has entered into a definitive agreement to provide a loan of $3,500,000 to Kattegat Mining Inc. at an interest rate of 8%, secured by a general security agreement over Kattegat's assets [1][3]. Company Overview - Total Metals Corp. focuses on its 100% owned Electrolode Project, which spans over 3,300 hectares in northwestern Ontario, targeting critical minerals and gold resources [8]. - The Electrolode Project is strategically located near major mines and is fully permitted for exploration drilling, with significant expansion potential [8]. - Total Metals also owns the High Lake and West Hawk Lake Projects, covering 958 hectares along the Manitoba/Ontario border, with exploration potential in the Purex Zone [8]. Loan Agreement Details - The loan proceeds will be used exclusively to repay Kattegat's outstanding convertible debentures and other liabilities [3]. - The loan is secured by a general security agreement, granting Total Metals a first-ranking security interest over all of Kattegat's present and after-acquired assets [3][4]. - The completion of the loan is conditional upon the repayment of Kattegat's liabilities and the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange [6]. Company Background - Kattegat Mining Inc. is a private company incorporated in British Columbia, holding 100% ownership of the Shoal Lake Property located in northwestern Ontario [2][7].
ASX Market Open: Markets move on Trump launching stunning legal attack on Fed chair Powell | Jan 13
The Market Online· 2026-01-12 21:28
Company News - BHP (ASX:BHP) is now within 8% of Commonwealth Bank's (ASX:CBA) lead on the S&P/ASX200 index, following a +30% rally over the last six months [4] - Resources Minister Madeleine King has expressed support for Rio Tinto's (ASX:RIO) mining mega-merger with Glencore, provided that Australia remains a focus [4] - Lunnon Metals (ASX:LM8) has reported finding "multiple significant, high-grade hits down plunge" at Lady Herial, attracting attention on HotCopper forums [5] - Miramar (ASX:M2R) has identified additional gold/copper targets at Lorraine [5] Market Overview - The Australian shares are projected to advance by +0.33% this Tuesday morning, influenced by global markets [1] - The S&P 500 reached another high, increasing by +0.2%, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq composite rose by +0.4% [2] - European markets also saw gains, with London and the Stoxx both up by +0.2%, and Japan's market increased by +1.6% [2] Commodities - Iron Ore prices have held steady, rising by +0.5% to $109 per tonne in Singapore [6] - Brent Crude oil increased by +1% to $63.96 per barrel [6] - Gold is priced at $4,608 per ounce [6] - US natural gas futures rebounded by +6.8% to $3.38 per gigajoule [6]
NextSource Materials finalizes terms sheets with investors for Phase 1 of Abu Dhabi battery anode facility
Proactiveinvestors NA· 2026-01-12 17:53
About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...
Algoma Steel Sees Q4 Loss on Tariffs and Blast Furnace Wind-Down
ZACKS· 2026-01-12 16:50
Core Insights - Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) has provided guidance for Q4 2025, expecting steel shipments of 375,000 to 380,000 tons and a negative adjusted EBITDA between C$95 million and C$105 million [1][7] Financial Performance - The company's results align with expectations, reflecting challenges from steel tariffs and the wind-down of blast furnace operations [2][7] - ASTL's stock has decreased by 48.8% over the past year, contrasting with the industry's growth of 45.2% [5] Operational Developments - The Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) project is operational six days a week, with the first unit running and the second unit on schedule [3][7] - The transition to EAF steelmaking is seen as a growth opportunity, with ongoing discussions to expand finishing capabilities [3] Industry Context - The EAF growth plan supports Canada's goal of enhancing domestic steelmaking capacity and reinforcing industrial competitiveness [3]
Exclusive: BHP to wait out Rio-Glencore talks, no plan to bid, sources say
Reuters· 2026-01-12 15:49
BHP is set to wait out Rio Tinto's talks to take over Glencore , a deal that would create the world's largest mining company, and is not currently planning a bid for the Swiss firm, two people familia... ...
EDM Resources reflects on 2025 achievements, outlines 2026 milestones for Scotia Mine
Proactiveinvestors NA· 2026-01-12 15:04
About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...