Core Viewpoint - Investors believe BHP should abandon its interest in Anglo American and concentrate on its own growth strategy, especially in light of Anglo American's impending $60 billion merger with Teck Resources [1] Group 1 - BHP's last-minute appeal to Anglo American has raised concerns among investors [1] - The merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources is valued at nearly $60 billion [1]

Market Overview - The local share market started positively with Information Technology up 2.5% intraday, while most sectors were in the green except for energy, which was down 0.6% in the final hour [1] European Union Investment - The European Union is expected to invest in Australian critical mineral projects, similar to the strategy adopted by the U.S. earlier this year, which could serve as a catalyst for market excitement [2] Company Performances - Gentrack Group reported an 8% revenue growth to $230 million and a 119% increase in profits after tax to $21 million, making it a top gainer [3] - Qube Holdings surged 18% to $4.81 per share after receiving a takeover offer from Macquarie, valuing the company at $11.6 billion [4] - Reece Limited saw a jump of over 12% despite no news, following better-than-expected earnings, although it has experienced a 50% decline in one-year returns [4] Declining Stocks - Dateline Resources fell 3.7%, continuing a familiar pattern, and its future performance may be influenced by the EU's upcoming decisions [5] - Coronado Global dropped 4% intraday, with one-year returns down 75%, and currently has no broker rating as a buy [5] - Cauldron Energy experienced a significant decline of 22% despite announcing expanded mineralization at its Manyingee South project, indicating market skepticism [6]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251124：沪铅上方承压；沪锌震荡偏弱 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/24 | | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | 17,075.00 | | -0.29% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,165.00 | | -0.32% | | | 元/吨 | | 沪铅基差 | | -90.00 | | 5.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 升贴水-上海 | | 25.00 | | - | | | 美元/吨 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 | -22.41 -85.30 | | 6.50 - | | | 价差 | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -5.00 | | 15.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group Ltd has renewed interest in acquiring Anglo American but has since confirmed it is no longer considering a merger, despite believing in the strategic merits of such a combination [2][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Interest - BHP had preliminary discussions with Anglo American's board regarding a potential takeover [2]. - The company previously made a takeover offer for Anglo American in May 2024, which was rejected [3]. - BHP maintains that a merger would have created significant value for stakeholders [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Share Price - The BHP share price remains largely flat despite the news of the acquisition talks [5]. - The company's share price is still closely tied to iron ore prices, which are currently at US$104 per tonne [6]. - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding the iron ore dispute with China, which could impact BHP's share performance [7]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - BHP is diversifying its focus away from iron ore and is confident in its organic growth strategy [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for CMOC is "Buy" with a target price of HK$20.60, indicating an expected total return of 22.0% including a dividend yield of 2.3% [6][8]. Core Insights - CMOC's net profit in 3Q25 exceeded market expectations, driven by a lower effective tax rate, realized cobalt sales, and strong minor metals prices [2]. - The company anticipates sustainable copper output growth due to technology upgrades, with a guidance of 0.8-1.0 million tonnes (mnt) for 2028E and the KFM phase 2 project expected to operate in 1H27E with an average output of 100,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa) [3]. - Copper production costs have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to increased output and cost control measures [4]. - Cobalt output is expected to remain stable despite potential adjustments in production methods, with a total cobalt quota of over 30,000 tonnes allocated for TFM and KFM projects in 2026E [5]. Financial Performance - CMOC's market capitalization is approximately HK$368.41 billion (US$47.40 billion) [6]. - The net financial expenses have decreased year-over-year in 9M25 due to the repayment of long-term debt [5]. - The DCF valuation methodology used yields a fair-value target price of HK$20.60, based on an 11% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Copper Core Views and Arguments - **Long-term Outlook**: The company maintains a structurally positive view on copper through 2025, despite concerns about a 'soft patch' in supply and demand (S&D) fundamentals in 3Q25 due to softening demand from China after a strong first half of the year [1][6] - **Demand vs Supply**: Demand growth is expected to remain resilient at approximately 3%, while mine and refined supply growth is projected to be less than 1%, leading to deficits that will drive inventory drawdowns and support price increases [1][6] - **Short-term Challenges**: In the near term, tighter fundamentals are unlikely to catalyze LME copper prices to sustainably trade above $11,000 due to elevated net positioning and holding refined output [1][6] Supply Dynamics - **Mine Supply Cuts**: Significant cuts to mine supply have been noted, including a reduction of approximately 500,000 tons in output from the Grasberg incident and cyclical lows in Collahuasi output, leading to essentially flat global mine supply in 2025 and less than 1% growth in 2026 [2][3] - **Refined Output Stability**: Despite tightness in the copper concentrate market, global smelter output remains stable, with a year-to-date increase of 12% in China's refined copper production, contributing to a surplus in the global refined market [3][6] Demand Insights - **Mixed Demand Signals**: Demand is holding up, supported by robust grid investments in China and renewables in Europe and the US, but traditional end markets in Europe and the US show little evidence of recovery [6][7] - **Future Demand Growth**: Refined copper demand growth is forecasted at around 3.5% for 2026/27, with potential upside risks from economic recovery in developed markets [6][7] Investment Opportunities - **Preferred Copper Equities**: The company identifies Freeport, Anglo American, Teck, and Antofagasta as preferred copper plays, with Freeport expected to re-rate positively if medium-term production at Grasberg is affirmed [7] - **Market Performance**: Copper equities have performed well, with COPX up 60% year-to-date, and the company anticipates continued premium valuations for copper equities compared to diversified peers [7] Additional Insights - **Inventory Trends**: Global visible copper inventories are approximately 0.5 million tons, below the average levels of 2010-2020, indicating a tight supply situation [17] - **Speculative Positioning**: Increased speculative long copper positioning has been observed, driven by material mine disruptions and a trend towards 'hard assets' [1][6] Conclusion The copper market is characterized by a structurally positive long-term outlook, tempered by short-term challenges related to demand fluctuations and supply disruptions. Investment opportunities exist in select copper equities, with a focus on maintaining premium valuations amidst a backdrop of mixed demand signals and stable refined output.

Key Takeaways from Zijin Mining Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining Group (Ticker: 2899.HK) - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Market Cap**: US$107.861 billion as of November 20, 2025 - **Current Stock Price**: HK$31.12 - **Price Target**: HK$46.10, representing a 48% upside potential [5][5][5] Copper Production Insights - **2025 Copper Output**: Expected to be approximately 1.1 million tons, revised down from earlier guidance of 1.15 million tons, primarily due to reduced output from the KK mine [4][7][7] - **Production Costs**: Anticipated to remain between Rmb21,000-23,000 per ton in the coming years, with a reported cost of Rmb22,100 per ton in Q3 2025 [2][2][2] - **Julong Copper Mine Phase II**: Set to commence production by the end of 2025, with an additional output of 100,000 tons expected in 2026 [1][1][1] - **Serbia Copper Complex Expansion**: Completion expected around 2027, slightly delayed due to the new block caving method requiring longer approval times [1][1][1] Lithium Production Insights - **Lakkor Tso Production**: Started in early 2025, expected to deliver 10,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) in 2025 and 20,000 tons in 2026, with production costs around Rmb35,000-40,000 per ton LCE [3][3][3] - **3Q Project**: Began production in September 2025, with an estimated output of 20,000-30,000 tons LCE in 2026 and a unit cost of Rmb60,000 per ton LCE [3][3][3] - **Xiangyuan Project**: Expected to start production by the end of 2025, with a capacity of 40,000 tons LCE and an expected output of 30,000 tons in 2026 at a unit cost of Rmb50,000-55,000 per ton LCE [3][3][3] - **Future Plans**: Zijin aims to achieve 250,000-300,000 tons per year of LCE lithium production by 2028 [3][3][3] Financial Performance Metrics - **Revenue Projections**: Expected net revenue for 2025 is Rmb354.239 billion, increasing to Rmb411.130 billion in 2026 [5][5][5] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025 is Rmb1.97, with further growth expected in subsequent years [5][5][5] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to be 37.5% in 2025, indicating strong profitability [5][5][5] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Stronger copper prices due to robust demand or supply disruptions in key copper-producing countries, along with volume increases from project ramp-ups [11][11][11] - **Downside Risks**: Weaker copper prices driven by economic downturns, project execution misses, and geopolitical risks affecting production [11][11][11] Conclusion Zijin Mining Group is positioned for growth in both copper and lithium production, with strategic expansions and cost management in place. However, the company faces potential risks from market fluctuations and geopolitical factors that could impact its operations and profitability.

Flash | 16 Nov 2025 18:22:27 ET │ 11 pages Zijin Mining (2899.HK) What's New from Citi 2025 China Conference: Mine Gold and Copper Output Maintain Decent Growth CITI'S TAKE We hosted meetings for Zijin Mining on Nov 13th at our China Conference in Shanghai. Ms. Krystal Chen, IR Manager, attended the meeting. Below are our key takeaways. Mine gold output – Mine gold output is 65t in 9M25, +20% YoY, mainly driven by newly acquired Akyem mine and increasing output from Sawaya'erdun gold mine. Mgmt. expects the ...

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group Ltd has officially withdrawn from merger discussions with Anglo American plc, signaling a shift towards focusing on its own growth strategies despite the potential benefits of a merger [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Discussions - BHP confirmed it is no longer considering a merger with Anglo American after initial discussions and has formally withdrawn under Rule 2.8 of the UK City Code on Takeovers and Mergers [1][3]. - The company stated that while a merger would have provided "strong strategic merits" and "significant value for all stakeholders," it remains committed to its organic growth plans [2]. Group 2: Implications of Withdrawal - BHP's withdrawal under Rule 2.8 prevents it from making another offer for Anglo American for at least six months unless certain exceptions occur, such as a new formal offer from another party or a material change in circumstances [3]. - The potential merger was seen as a significant opportunity to create the world's largest copper producer, a critical metal for energy transition, but faced challenges including regulatory hurdles and potential opposition from shareholders [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - Following the decision to withdraw from merger talks, BHP is refocusing on internal projects, particularly its copper and potash expansions in Chile and Canada, aligning with long-term demand trends in electrification and decarbonization [5].

Core Viewpoint - BHP Group has decided not to pursue a takeover of Anglo American after recent discussions, as Anglo American moves forward with plans to merge with Teck Resources [1] Group 1 - BHP Group's decision comes amid Anglo American's advancing merger plans with Teck Resources [1] - The talks between BHP Group and Anglo American have concluded without a takeover agreement [1]