文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 12 月工业企业利润数据：受其他损益收入比下降影响，利润增速回升 12 月，据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业当月利润由 11 月份下降 13.1% 转为增长 5.3% ，回升 18.4 个 百分点。库存方面，截止至 2025 年 12 月，库存同比 3.9% ，前值为 4.6% 。分所有制看， 12 月，国有 控股工业企业利润增速为 -51.5% ，私营企业增速为 0.56% ，外商及港澳台为 41.4% 。 量、价、利润率拆分来看，量价双升 。 PPI 同比， 12 月同比为 -1.9% ， 11 月为 -2.2% 。工增 12 月增 速为 5.2% ， 11 月为 4.8% ；收入端 12 月增速为 -3.21% ， 11 月为 -0.26% 。利润率方面， 12 月为 5.57% ，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.13% 。 利润率拆分来看， 12 月毛利率为 16.40% ，去年同期为 16.44% ；费用率 10.7% ，去年同期为 10.23% ；其他损益收入比为 0.14% ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 年度回顾：利润的结构变化 ——12月工业企业利润点评 主要观点 12 月工业企业利润数据：受其他损益收入比下降影响，利润增速回升 12 月，据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业当月利润由 11 月份下降 13.1%转为 增长 5.3%，回升 18.4 个百分点。库存方面，截止至 2025 年 12 月，库存同比 3.9%，前值为 4.6%。分所有制看，12 月，国有控股工业企业利润增速为-51.5%， 私营企业增速为 0.56%，外商及港澳台为 41.4%。 量、价、利润率拆分来看，量价双升。PPI 同比，12 月同比为-1.9%，11 月为 -2.2%。工增 12 月增速为 5.2%，11 月为 4.8%；收入端 12 月增速为-3.21%， 11 月为-0.26%。利润率方面，12 月为 5.57%，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.13%。 利润率拆分来看，12 月毛利率为 16.40%，去年同期为 16.44%；费用率 10.7%， 去年同期为 10.23%；其他损益收入比为 0.14%，去年同期为 0.87%。 全年利润结构回顾：中游制造与大宗商品占比回升 （一） ...

Group 1: Economic Structure and Wealth - By 2025, the new economy is expected to account for 20.1% of the total economy, surpassing the old economy at 19.7% for the first time[2][11] - Financial assets held by residents are projected to exceed residential assets by 2026, driven by increases in deposits, non-deposit financial investments, and stock market valuations[3][13] Group 2: Spending Willingness and Supply-Demand Dynamics - Resident spending willingness has declined from 101.4% in 2021 to 80% in 2025, but is expected to rebound to 107.6% by 2025 due to fiscal and external demand support[4][18] - In December 2025, the midstream manufacturing sector is expected to see a demand growth rate of 8.4%, contrasting with upstream at -6.8% and downstream at 3.2%[5][21] Group 3: Quarterly Economic Data Insights - In Q4 2025, GDP growth was recorded at 4.5%, with a nominal GDP growth of 3.8% and a cumulative annual growth of 5.0%[6][25] - The contribution rates to economic growth in Q4 were 52.9% from final consumption, 16.0% from capital formation, and 31.1% from net exports[29] Group 4: Employment and Consumer Behavior - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December 2025, with a total of 18.006 million migrant workers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8%[46][39] - Consumer spending growth in December was 0.9%, down from 1.3% in the previous month, indicating a slowdown in consumer demand[51][43]

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses four macroeconomic counterforces that are expected to strengthen by 2025, potentially leading to a healthier economic environment in 2026, characterized by rising prices, improved corporate profits, and stable employment and consumption [2][4]. Group 1: Four Strengthening Counterforces - **Economic Structure**: By 2025, the new economy is projected to account for 20.1% of the economy, surpassing the old economy at 19.7%, marking the first time this has occurred [4][13]. - **Household Wealth**: Financial assets are expected to exceed residential assets by 2026, driven by growth in deposits, non-deposit financial investments, and stock market valuations [5][15]. - **Spending Willingness**: Despite a decline in household spending inclination, the combined spending willingness of three sectors is anticipated to rise from 107.2% in 2023 to 107.6% in 2025 [7][16]. - **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: The supply-demand contradiction in the midstream manufacturing sector is rapidly easing, with midstream demand growth projected at 8.4% for 2025, outperforming upstream and downstream sectors [8][20]. Group 2: Economic Data Analysis for Q4 - **GDP Growth**: In Q4, GDP growth was 4.5%, down from 4.8%, with a cumulative annual growth rate of 5.0% [10][22]. - **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of -13.2% in Q4, with real estate sales area decreasing by -17.0% [23][50]. - **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth in December was 0.9%, down from 1.3%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [31][38]. - **Employment Stability**: The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in December, with a total of 30.115 million migrant workers, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [36][30]. Group 3: December Economic Data Insights - **Production Strength**: December saw industrial output growth of 5.2%, with service sector production index at 5.0% [31][46]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate sector experienced a downturn, with a sales area decline of -15.6% in December and a significant investment drop of -35.8% [43][44]. - **Price Trends**: In December, the PPI decreased by -1.9%, while the CPI rose to 0.8%, indicating mixed price pressures in the economy [34][35].