作者：李湛 招商基金 一是"以旧换新"政策边际效果再度减弱，消费尚待提振。8月社零同比上涨3.4%，增速较上月下降0.3个 百分点，季调后环比仅上涨0.2%。7、8月两年平均增速分别为3.2%和2.8%、持续回落，表明当前"以旧 换新"政策边际效果减弱。特别是"以旧换新"政策支持品类消费增速回落较为明显，其中家用电器和音 响器材类（14.3%）回落14.4个百分点、通讯器材类（7.3%）回落7.6个百分点，汽车零售额受汽车价格 企稳影响下增速（0.8%）回正、但依然不高。 二是固投增速降幅有所扩大。8月固定资产投资累计同比0.5%，较上月下降1.1个百分点。其中，制 造业投资增速8月同比为5.1%，较上月的6.2%明显下滑，对后续出口前景不确定性担忧以及整治"内卷 式"竞争抑制投资意愿；受天气因素影响，基建投资同比从上月的3.2%下降至2.0%；房地产投资同比下 降12.9%，较上月-12.0%降幅有所扩大，房地产市场呈现加速下行态势。目前来看投资端三大分项仍有 下行压力，成为内需最大拖累项。 三是出口维持偏高景气。8月出口同比为4.4%，较上月7.2%回落0.8个百分点。出口增速下滑主要源于基 数影响，从两 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the necessity of regulating industrial policies and controlling local governments' enthusiasm for industrial investment while emphasizing the need for further efforts to stimulate consumption [3][22]. Group 1: PPI Trends - Since October 2022, China's PPI has entered a continuous negative growth phase, experiencing 34 months of decline, which has pressured industrial profits and suppressed consumer spending [3][4]. - The current PPI negative growth is compared to a previous cycle from March 2012 to August 2016, which lasted 54 months, highlighting similarities in duration and abrupt declines [4][5]. - The current PPI decline is driven by two main factors: overcapacity in industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries due to rapid demand growth, and significant adjustments in the real estate market since the second half of 2021 [5][6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Both rounds of PPI decline are characterized by rapid capacity expansion exceeding demand growth, leading to oversupply, but the causes of demand insufficiency differ [6][11]. - The current round of PPI decline has seen a more significant impact from weak consumer demand, particularly in the context of the real estate market's deep adjustments, which have led to substantial wealth evaporation for residents [6][12]. Group 3: Industry Contributions to PPI Decline - The mining and upstream raw materials sectors contributed significantly to PPI declines in both periods, but their contribution decreased from 85.2% to 61.7% in the current cycle [11]. - The midstream manufacturing sector's contribution to PPI decline increased to 9.0% due to the overcapacity in the new energy sector, while the downstream manufacturing sector's contribution rose to 26.0%, particularly from essential consumer goods [11][12]. Group 4: Consumer Demand Analysis - The current cycle's core CPI has averaged around 0.3%, significantly lower than the previous cycle's average of 2.1%, indicating a substantial drop in consumer demand [13][14]. - Factors contributing to weak consumer demand include declining disposable income growth, increased savings tendencies, and unstable income expectations, leading to reduced consumption even with unchanged income levels [17][19]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To reverse the PPI negative growth, stronger counter-cyclical adjustment policies are needed, including lowering policy interest rates and expanding public investment [21][23]. - Enhancing consumer confidence through effective policies can lead to increased consumption, which is crucial for reversing the downward trend in downstream manufacturing prices and ultimately improving PPI [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a mild recovery phase, with a significant structural divergence that highlights the accelerated shift between old and new driving forces [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The market style is shifting towards growth, with technology manufacturing being a core engine driven by the AI cycle and domestic substitution, resulting in high performance growth [1] - Midstream manufacturing is benefiting from cost recovery, demonstrating resilient profitability [1] Group 2: Recovery Dynamics - The current recovery is characterized by price restoration being more favorable than volume expansion [1] - In emerging sectors, the AI industry chain has shown strong performance, while robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals face opportunities for mass production and reversal of difficulties [1] - New consumption sectors require attention on the transmission from revenue to profitability [1] Group 3: Policy and Selection - Overall economic recovery still requires policy reinforcement, indicating that the market will experience structural trends, necessitating the selection of high-prosperity sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this year, leading to improved performance for many actively managed equity funds, although some funds have lagged due to structural market conditions, prompting fund managers to express apologies in their semi-annual reports [1][2]. Fund Performance and Apologies - Fund types expressing apologies include underperforming pharmaceutical funds, dividend funds, and growth funds, indicating a need for fund managers to reassess their investment frameworks and for investors to discern between short-term market style mismatches and long-term managerial capabilities [2][5]. - A pharmaceutical fund manager acknowledged underperformance relative to industry indices and expressed regret for not achieving absolute returns, attributing the poor performance to premature shifts in investment strategy and missed opportunities in the "new drug + new consumption" sector [4][5]. - A dividend fund manager reported negative returns in the first half of 2025, citing both objective market conditions and subjective misjudgments as reasons for underperformance, particularly in avoiding high-recognition sectors while focusing on low-recognition ones [7][8]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant activity, particularly in innovative drug companies, with some funds achieving substantial gains, while others have struggled due to conservative positioning [4][5]. - Fund managers are optimistic about future performance, highlighting potential in low-positioned sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, such as AI healthcare and medical devices, and committing to a more proactive investment approach [5][10]. - Some fund managers reflected on missed opportunities due to early profit-taking and emphasized the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective despite short-term challenges [10][11]. Performance Data - Data from Wind indicates that several funds that apologized for their performance have rebounded in the second half of the year, with some achieving net value growth rates of 20% to 30%, significantly outperforming their benchmarks [14][15]. - Specific fund performance metrics show that a dividend mixed fund had a net value growth rate of -3.31% in the first half but rebounded to 11.40% in the second half, while other funds also demonstrated similar recovery trends [14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pricing drivers for dividend sectors are shifting from low volatility attributes to improvements in fundamental expectations, particularly benefiting consumer dividends such as food and beverages, home appliances, and textiles and apparel [1] - The current macroeconomic environment is in a "de-involution" transition phase, indicating that corporate profit bottoms have been reached, and the continuous decline in PPIRM-PPI suggests a recovery in midstream manufacturing profits, which will gradually restore overall demand [1] - In this context, the price elasticity of dividend assets may strengthen as fundamental expectations improve, especially in sectors with profit improvement potential in the consumer domain [1] Group 2 - The Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720) tracks the State-Owned Dividend Index (000151), which selects 50 stocks from the Shanghai market that have high cash dividend yields, stable dividends, and certain scale and liquidity [1] - The index constituents mainly cover traditional high-dividend sectors such as finance, energy, and industry, reflecting the investment characteristics of seeking stable returns [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the GT Fund's Shanghai Stock Exchange State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF Initiated Link A (021701) and Link C (021702) [1]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a shift from a focus on banks and low-volatility stocks to a pricing strategy that emphasizes fundamental trends, particularly in growth sectors driven by industrial trends [1][9][28] - The valuation of the market, as indicated by the PB ratio of 1.74, is approaching historical highs, suggesting limited room for further price increases based on fundamentals alone [1][6][28] - There is a notable transition from small-cap growth represented by the National Securities 2000 index to large-cap growth represented by the ChiNext index, driven by valuation differences and investor focus on profitability [2][11][28] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators show a "double weakness" in both reality and expectations, with financial data indicating weak credit growth and economic data reflecting declining investment and consumption [3][14][20] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline in investment growth and industrial output, which is seen as a normal phenomenon during the transition from an inward-focused economy to a more balanced one [3][16][20] - Historical trends suggest that corporate earnings typically bottom out before PPI, indicating potential recovery in profitability for midstream manufacturing as raw material costs decline faster than factory prices [3][20][28] Group 3 - Inflationary pressures from overseas tariffs are becoming evident, impacting U.S. PPI and altering interest rate expectations, which may accelerate manufacturing investment [4][22][26] - Despite a lower-than-expected CPI, the core CPI has slightly exceeded expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs [4][22][26] - Global manufacturing investment is on the rise, as evidenced by Japan's machine tool orders increasing by 3.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by overseas demand [4][26][28] Group 4 - The market's focus is shifting towards fundamental pricing, particularly in growth sectors, while large-cap blue-chip stocks continue to underperform [5][28][29] - The recovery of midstream manufacturing profits is expected to take time, but the overall trend towards improving fundamentals is anticipated [5][28][29] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on upstream resource products and capital goods, as well as consumer-oriented dividend stocks, while monitoring large-cap growth opportunities [5][29]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown good performance in 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 6.88%, the ChiNext Index by 7.89%, and the CSI 300 by 4.7% from the beginning of the year to July 23 [1] - The market experienced significant fluctuations due to factors such as "reciprocal tariffs" and has gradually moved upward since mid-April, supported by proactive domestic policies and a temporary easing of Sino-U.S. trade tensions [1] - There is a clear divergence in sector performance, with non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and banks leading in gains, while coal, food and beverage, and real estate sectors remain in negative returns [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy aims to shift industry competition from low-level price wars to high-quality competition, which could improve the profitability of listed companies and enhance the long-term capacity for technological advancement [2] - Midstream manufacturing and upstream raw materials sectors, which are currently facing supply-demand imbalances, are expected to benefit significantly from the gradual implementation of the "anti-involution" policy [2] Group 3 - Domestic demand has shown resilience in the first half of the year, supported by policies such as "trade-in" for durable goods and equipment upgrades, which bolster manufacturing investment [3] - The stabilization of the real estate market is seen as a crucial factor for the recovery of domestic demand, with ongoing supportive policies expected to contribute to this trend [3] - New productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals, are anticipated to represent significant investment opportunities in the future [3]