文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 3、但是本轮宏观流动性最宽松时段过去与历史相比存在三点不同： ①从基本面来看，当下基本面景气最确定的是中游，由于中游需求更依赖海外，其景气相对独立，因此国 内流动性的松紧对其需求影响不大，反而有助于其供给侧的加速收缩。在这个视角下，国内流动性收缩对 中游利润预期冲击不大。 ②从资产配置来看，绝对视角下，国际经验展示当下十债收益率仍低于国际合理空间，相对视角下，我们 的股债比价指标（股债夏普比率差值）仍显示当下股票更具配置优势。因此如果流动性收缩冲击偏"贵"的资 产的话，只要经济循环仍在边际改善，那么债券反而是当下"偏贵"的资产。 ③如果经济遭遇突发事件打破循环，国内政策有望随时加码改善流动性。但过去，传统的经济动能主要依 靠房地产和地方融资平台推动，由于其融资以信贷为主，因此流动性改善需要通过调降利率的方式兑现； 而当下，高科技创新型企业等新动能与直接融资则更为适配，因此流动性改善不止有调降利率，还可以通 过稳定权益市场进而带动直接融资。2025年，政策利率的下行幅度就相对偏小，权益 ...

"我们预计2026年实际GDP增速在4.8%-4.9%区间，名义GDP较2025年提升至4.5%左右。"张瑜分析，经 济"下半场"的盈利支撑值得期待。她将未来一年的经济图景比喻为一条轴线，消费是"轴中"稳定器，出 口是确定高于增速的"轴上"力量，而投资则可能成为"轴下"的拖累项。在这一结构性分化中，中游制造 业的崛起与资本市场的价值重估，构成了理解2026年投资主线的双重线索。 宏观定调：韧性出口与"有为不激进"的财政平衡 展望2026年，宏观经济的核心特征将是结构分化与政策定力下的平稳运行。在"三驾马车"中，消费的基 础性作用和出口的韧性将成为稳定增长的关键。 张瑜预计，社会消费品零售总额增速将保持在4%左右，但包含服务消费在内的居民实际消费增速有望 达到4.5%-5%。"居民消费正从商品向服务延展，结构优化的趋势非常明显。"这一转变意味着内需的支 撑将更加多元和可持续。 出口则被视作确定性更高的增长动力。张瑜判断，2026年出口增速有望达到5%，继续高于经济整体增 速。"全球工业生产在未来9至12个月将呈现温和复苏，这对中国的中间品和资本品出口构成直接支撑， 外需韧性依然存在。"相比之下，固定资产投资增速 ...

科技股或将继续担纲主线 2025年以来，行情主要由科技股搭台唱戏，其余板块多数涨幅平平，新旧消费、公共设施、房地产等指 数表现不佳，不仅难寻超额收益，不少个股甚至跌幅较大，个别主题基金也在慢牛中折损净值。 行情步入年末，当下已经来到跨年布局时点。多位基金经理指出，科技股或将继续担纲行情主线，但明 年的行情或将更加均衡，顺周期板块、消费板块等被"冷落"的公司投资机遇凸显；尤其是部分经历供给 侧改革的公司，受益于产业出清，或将作为新的高股息资产方向。 虽然看好科技板块是公募基金的共识，但也有基金经理认为，明年的行情或许更加均衡。 永赢基金权益投资部总经理王乾指出，展望2026年，市场风格可能更为均衡，大概率不会重演"一边 倒"的极端风格。 王乾认为，对于高位的科技成长类板块，市场对明年降息周期已计入较多，若后续美联储降息节奏低于 预期，流动性压力可能将阶段性加大。同时，截至三季报公募TMT(科技、媒体、通讯)仓位已达到历史 高位，尽管产业趋势依然十分明确，但板块波动率可能阶段性放大，部分资金存在兑现需求。 "而对于低位的顺周期、价值类板块，尽管国内存在产能周期底部回升、PPI降幅收窄、上市公司现金流 改善等积极变 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026, focusing on various sectors including the midstream manufacturing industry, real estate, and the overall stock and bond markets. Core Insights and Arguments Economic Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4.8%-4.9%, with nominal GDP growth at approximately 4.5% [5][6][12] - Retail sales growth could reach 4%-4.5% under certain subsidy assumptions, while export growth is projected to maintain resilience at about 5% [5][7] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to rise from -3.1% this year to a range of 0%-1%, with manufacturing expected to grow by 2% and real estate continuing to decline by -10% to -13% [5][7] Fiscal Policy and Price Trends - Fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with budget expenditure growth around 5% and new government debt between 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion [6][8] - CPI is projected to gradually rise and turn positive, while PPI trends are uncertain, with potential for stabilization in midstream PPI in the first half of 2026 [6][9][10] Midstream Manufacturing Industry - The midstream manufacturing sector is highlighted as the most promising area, benefiting from a recovery with overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins for the first time, reaching 25%-30% [13][16] - Demand growth in this sector has outpaced supply growth for over a year, indicating a recovery in return on equity (ROE) [13][16] Stock Market Outlook - A strategic bullish outlook for the stock market in 2026 is maintained, although the pace of valuation increases and the outperformance of the ChiNext index may weaken [21][23] - The focus will shift towards sectors with low valuation percentiles and high dividend yields, such as insurance and home appliances [23][24] Bond Market Perspective - A cautious view on the bond market is expressed, with expectations of rising yields, particularly for ten-year government bonds, which are projected to exceed 2% [26] - The bond market is considered relatively expensive compared to equities, and adjustments are anticipated [26] Additional Important Insights Uncertainties in Policy Implementation - Several uncertainties regarding policy implementation are identified, including the use of special bonds and the structure of long-term special government bonds [8] - The impact of service consumption subsidies on the service sector and overall economic performance remains to be seen [8] Key Timeframes for Investors - Two critical timeframes in 2026 are highlighted: January for CPI expectations and around May for PPI consensus, which are significant for macroeconomic assessments [12] Investment Focus Areas - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high capacity utilization and low capital expenditure, such as synthetic fibers, black metals, oil and gas, and general equipment [25] - The midstream manufacturing sector is emphasized as the most reliable investment direction due to its current performance and growth potential [20] Future of Real Estate Market - The real estate market's future remains uncertain, with a need for policy support to stabilize prices, especially given the current oversupply situation [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic outlook, sector performance, and investment strategies for 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of companies listed on the ChiNext board in the third quarter of 2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating a continuation of the positive trend observed in the first half of the year [3][5]. Financial Performance - As of October 31, 2025, 1,388 ChiNext companies reported a total revenue of 3.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.69%, and a net profit of 244.66 billion yuan, up 18.69% year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q3 2025, ChiNext companies achieved a total revenue of 1.18 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.13%, and a net profit of 932.61 billion yuan, up 18.32% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - Among the reported companies, 1,034 were profitable, representing 74.5%, and 737 companies saw net profit growth, accounting for 53.1%, an increase of 8.31 percentage points compared to the previous year [6]. Industry Performance - The electronic and communication sectors showed remarkable growth, with the "Yizhongtian" combination achieving a total net profit of 14.92 billion yuan in the first three quarters, 2.34 times that of the same period last year [3][7]. - The power equipment industry benefited from explosive growth in energy storage, with revenue increasing by 12.90% year-on-year and net profit rising by 28.61% [7][9]. - The machinery equipment sector experienced a revenue growth of 10.15% and a net profit increase of 8.26% due to recovering demand in engineering machinery and policy support [7][9]. Sector Highlights - The electronic industry reported a revenue growth of 21.65% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 36.29% [8][9]. - The communication sector saw a revenue increase of 24.82% and a net profit surge of 94.10% [8][9]. - The semiconductor and components sectors benefited from high demand, with net profits growing by 54.09% and 91.07%, respectively [9]. Overall Market Trends - The ChiNext board demonstrated a "three increases and one decrease" trend, indicating an overall increase in gross profit margin, growth in long-term asset investments, and an increase in R&D spending, while the expense ratio decreased [6][7]. - Traditional industries are recovering from cyclical lows, with the basic chemical industry and non-ferrous metals sector showing net profit increases of 28.86% and 15.94%, respectively [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a reversal in the relationship between GDP, revenue, and profit growth, with A-share revenue growth surpassing nominal GDP for the first time since 2023, showing a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% in Q3 2025 [1][10] - The net profit growth rate for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate sectors) improved by 0.9 percentage points to 3.8% in Q3 2025, indicating a marginal recovery in profitability [1][19] - The net asset return (TTM) rose to 7.5%, marking two consecutive quarters of improvement, driven primarily by profit margin recovery [1][19] Group 2 - The midstream manufacturing sector showed significant improvement, with revenue and profit growth rates of 2.1% and 18.1% respectively in Q3 2025, reflecting a marginal increase compared to Q2 [2][39] - The TMT sector continued to outperform, with profit share rising to 16.0%, while the downstream consumer sector saw a decline in profit share to 25.1%, the lowest since Q3 2024 [2][39] - The non-bank financial sector recorded nearly 40% profit growth, indicating a strong performance relative to other sectors [2][39] Group 3 - The report highlights that the recovery in upstream profit share often requires a return to price advantages, which was observed in September 2025, suggesting a potential easing of performance pressures in the upstream sectors [3][29] - The energy metals and fiberglass manufacturing sectors achieved simultaneous volume and price increases, indicating effective outcomes from anti-involution policies [3][29] - The report notes that while the technology sector's absolute growth rates are high, the degree of expectation fulfillment is not particularly strong, suggesting potential risks if larger-scale industry catalysts do not emerge [3][29] Group 4 - The report indicates that the overall revenue growth for all A-shares was 1.36% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, with a notable improvement of 1.2 percentage points compared to Q2 [10][14] - Capital expenditure growth for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate) recorded a decline of 1.91%, indicating limited new capital investment and a focus on updates and renovations [10][15] - The inventory growth rate for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate) rebounded to 4.5%, reflecting a recovery in demand and improved operational expectations [10][15]

Macroeconomic Analysis - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is estimated at around 4.8%, down from approximately 5% in July, indicating a noticeable slowdown in economic data [1] - The "trade-in" policy's marginal effectiveness has weakened, with retail sales in August increasing by only 3.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Fixed asset investment growth has decreased, with August's cumulative year-on-year growth at 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Exports maintained a relatively high level, with August exports growing by 4.4%, although this is a decline from 7.2% in July [2] - Borrowing willingness among enterprises and households remains weak, with social financing stock growth at 8.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] Economic and Financial Concerns for Q4 - Limited consumer recovery and urgent need for additional government subsidies, as consumer employment indices are low, affecting income and spending [3] - Investment faces downward pressure, particularly in manufacturing and real estate, with no signs of stabilization in the real estate market [3] - Low inflation persists, with core CPI remaining below 1%, influenced by weak domestic demand and external supply pressures [3] Capital Market Trends - Market liquidity is overall abundant, with non-bank financial institutions' deposits increasing, suggesting a positive feedback loop for stock market inflows [4] - External risks are easing, with successful tariff negotiations and signals of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [5] - Macro policy expectations have risen, with initiatives to address "involution" in competition and promote the AI industry [5] Market Funding Structure Changes - Current market funding primarily comes from private equity, speculative funds, and leveraged capital, with significant growth in private equity fund registrations [6] - There has been no significant increase in new individual accounts on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating a lack of strong retail investor interest [6] - Residents' funds may be entering the stock market through bank wealth management products, despite a rising savings inclination [7] Current Market Focus - Key issues include the progress of US-China tariff negotiations and potential changes in Trump's policies towards China [8] - The effectiveness of measures to address "involution" in competition and policies to stabilize growth in service consumption and real estate are under scrutiny [8] Policy Recommendations - Further guidance is needed to attract long-term funds into the market, optimizing mechanisms for social security and pension investments [9] - Strengthening policy coordination and expectations management is essential to stabilize market confidence amid external uncertainties [9] - Enhanced regulation and risk prevention measures are necessary to monitor leveraged funds and prevent excessive speculation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the necessity of regulating industrial policies and controlling local governments' enthusiasm for industrial investment while emphasizing the need for further efforts to stimulate consumption [3][22]. Group 1: PPI Trends - Since October 2022, China's PPI has entered a continuous negative growth phase, experiencing 34 months of decline, which has pressured industrial profits and suppressed consumer spending [3][4]. - The current PPI negative growth is compared to a previous cycle from March 2012 to August 2016, which lasted 54 months, highlighting similarities in duration and abrupt declines [4][5]. - The current PPI decline is driven by two main factors: overcapacity in industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries due to rapid demand growth, and significant adjustments in the real estate market since the second half of 2021 [5][6]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Both rounds of PPI decline are characterized by rapid capacity expansion exceeding demand growth, leading to oversupply, but the causes of demand insufficiency differ [6][11]. - The current round of PPI decline has seen a more significant impact from weak consumer demand, particularly in the context of the real estate market's deep adjustments, which have led to substantial wealth evaporation for residents [6][12]. Group 3: Industry Contributions to PPI Decline - The mining and upstream raw materials sectors contributed significantly to PPI declines in both periods, but their contribution decreased from 85.2% to 61.7% in the current cycle [11]. - The midstream manufacturing sector's contribution to PPI decline increased to 9.0% due to the overcapacity in the new energy sector, while the downstream manufacturing sector's contribution rose to 26.0%, particularly from essential consumer goods [11][12]. Group 4: Consumer Demand Analysis - The current cycle's core CPI has averaged around 0.3%, significantly lower than the previous cycle's average of 2.1%, indicating a substantial drop in consumer demand [13][14]. - Factors contributing to weak consumer demand include declining disposable income growth, increased savings tendencies, and unstable income expectations, leading to reduced consumption even with unchanged income levels [17][19]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To reverse the PPI negative growth, stronger counter-cyclical adjustment policies are needed, including lowering policy interest rates and expanding public investment [21][23]. - Enhancing consumer confidence through effective policies can lead to increased consumption, which is crucial for reversing the downward trend in downstream manufacturing prices and ultimately improving PPI [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is entering a mild recovery phase, with a significant structural divergence that highlights the accelerated shift between old and new driving forces [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The market style is shifting towards growth, with technology manufacturing being a core engine driven by the AI cycle and domestic substitution, resulting in high performance growth [1] - Midstream manufacturing is benefiting from cost recovery, demonstrating resilient profitability [1] Group 2: Recovery Dynamics - The current recovery is characterized by price restoration being more favorable than volume expansion [1] - In emerging sectors, the AI industry chain has shown strong performance, while robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals face opportunities for mass production and reversal of difficulties [1] - New consumption sectors require attention on the transmission from revenue to profitability [1] Group 3: Policy and Selection - Overall economic recovery still requires policy reinforcement, indicating that the market will experience structural trends, necessitating the selection of high-prosperity sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this year, leading to improved performance for many actively managed equity funds, although some funds have lagged due to structural market conditions, prompting fund managers to express apologies in their semi-annual reports [1][2]. Fund Performance and Apologies - Fund types expressing apologies include underperforming pharmaceutical funds, dividend funds, and growth funds, indicating a need for fund managers to reassess their investment frameworks and for investors to discern between short-term market style mismatches and long-term managerial capabilities [2][5]. - A pharmaceutical fund manager acknowledged underperformance relative to industry indices and expressed regret for not achieving absolute returns, attributing the poor performance to premature shifts in investment strategy and missed opportunities in the "new drug + new consumption" sector [4][5]. - A dividend fund manager reported negative returns in the first half of 2025, citing both objective market conditions and subjective misjudgments as reasons for underperformance, particularly in avoiding high-recognition sectors while focusing on low-recognition ones [7][8]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant activity, particularly in innovative drug companies, with some funds achieving substantial gains, while others have struggled due to conservative positioning [4][5]. - Fund managers are optimistic about future performance, highlighting potential in low-positioned sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, such as AI healthcare and medical devices, and committing to a more proactive investment approach [5][10]. - Some fund managers reflected on missed opportunities due to early profit-taking and emphasized the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective despite short-term challenges [10][11]. Performance Data - Data from Wind indicates that several funds that apologized for their performance have rebounded in the second half of the year, with some achieving net value growth rates of 20% to 30%, significantly outperforming their benchmarks [14][15]. - Specific fund performance metrics show that a dividend mixed fund had a net value growth rate of -3.31% in the first half but rebounded to 11.40% in the second half, while other funds also demonstrated similar recovery trends [14].