2025 年 8 月工业企业利润点评 8 月工业企业利润：缘何强势反弹？ 2025 年 09 月 27 日 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn ➢ 事件：9 月 27 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1-8 月份，中国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额 46929.7 亿元，同比增长 0.9%。8 月份，规模以上工业企 业利润同比由上月下降 1.5%转为增长 20.4%。 ➢ 8 月工业企业利润超预期高增，谁是"幕后推手"？8 月工业企业利润由负 大幅转正至 20.4%，一举录得 2023 年 12 月以来的最高增速。然而在剔除掉低 基数的影响后，8 月企业利润增速反而呈现出边际上的放缓（若用两年平均复合 增速来剔除掉基数效应的影响，工业企业利润增速从 7 月的 1.3%降至 8 月的- 0.5%）。在 8 月利润高增的表象下，真正的叙事是"反内卷"政策如何重构利润 分配逻辑，8 月的这份利润"成绩单"也提供了一些关键线索。 ➢ 三因素框架来看，低基数解释了营收利润率的大幅改善。量、价、利润率拆 解来看，8 月表现为"量上价下、利润率正增"的形势，这与此 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the evolution of asset classes from a "bond bull market" to a "stock bull market" since the significant policy adjustments on September 24, 2022, influenced by a low interest rate environment [1][4] - The current market is experiencing an "asset shortage," leading asset management institutions to seek higher credit risk assets with larger credit spreads [1][3] - The phenomenon of high equity risk premiums compared to low bond credit spreads has only occurred three times in the past decade, indicating a significant market divergence [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is gradually recovering, with M1 growth exceeding market expectations, influenced by fiscal policy and trade surpluses converting into corporate cash [4][5] - The "barbell strategy" in stock investment has shown strong performance, combining large-cap and small-cap stocks, as well as high-dividend and high-volatility assets [4][6] - Recent trends indicate a reversal in mid-cap and mid-valuation sectors, supported by domestic policies aimed at clearing ineffective supply and improving asset profitability [5][6] Group 3 - Internationally, the focus on artificial intelligence investments is notable, but there is potential for growth in manufacturing-related investments due to rising industrial prices in the U.S. [5][6] - U.S. companies exhibit a positive outlook on capital expenditures across various sectors, which may significantly impact global midstream industries [6]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first five months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[1] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises dropped sharply from 3.0% in April to -9.1% in May, indicating a significant impact from tariffs[1] - The decline in revenue profit margin contributed approximately 10.2 percentage points to the profit growth rate decline in May[1] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Factors - Rising costs due to tariffs have led to a decrease in profit margins, particularly affecting downstream industries[2] - Companies are showing a weakened willingness to restock, with both revenue and finished goods inventory growth rates declining in May[2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Impacts - Profit growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in May were -21.7%, 3.5%, and -13.3% respectively, indicating increased pressure on upstream and downstream sectors[3] - Downstream industries, particularly entertainment products, textiles, and food manufacturing, experienced significant profit declines of -27.0%, -18.3%, and -7.0% respectively[3] Group 4: Enterprise Type Performance - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of -18.1% in May, while private enterprises experienced a smaller decline of 0.8%[6] - The larger impact on state-owned enterprises is attributed to their inability to quickly adjust supply chains in response to tariff changes[6]