证券研究报告|点评研究 25年12月14日 华福证券 主题形态学三板斧 证券分析师： 研究助理： 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 周浦寒 S0210524040007 主题形态学，希望打造一把针对主题投资的利器。1）识别主题机会：对主题指数进行全面、客观的 前期筛选，帮助投资经理更专注于逻辑分析、空间判断、投资决策等主动研究。2）实现主题"指数 "的可投资：映射股票、转债，构建可投资的权益+组合。而且提供主题指数的板块分类、机构持仓 等辅助指标。 主题样本即时纳入新增主题指数。而且，主题指数数量繁多，为增加其可视性，我们参考指数成分 股，对其进行行业、板块2重划分。 捕捉"右侧突破"信号。1）对应主题行情启动快的特征，我们构建"右侧突破"的形态：当主题出 现右侧突破信号，如果判断逻辑没问题，就考虑第一时间参与。2）专注参与第一波行情："区间无 绝对高点"设置下，我们排除前期存在"绝对高点"的主题指数。3）让高频信号更适用投资窗口： 我们新增了"缓和器"的概念，即持有至图形失效。4）回测结果显示，样本内外，右侧突破形态的 超额收益均 ...

证券研究报告|点评研究 25年12月10日 华福证券 主题形态学三板斧（三）： 底部企稳和底部反转 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 主题形态学，希望打造一把针对主题投资的利器。1）识别主题机会：对主题指数进行全面、客观的 前期筛选，使投资经理更专注于逻辑分析、空间判断、投资决策等主动研究。2）实现主题"指数" 的可投资：映射股票、转债，构建可投资的权益+组合。而且提供主题指数的板块分类、机构持仓等 辅助指标。3）本文为形态学三板斧的第三篇：底部企稳和底部反转。区别于右侧打法，寻找尚在低 位的、企稳和反转的主题机会。 主题样本即时纳入新增主题指数。而且，为增加其可视性，我们对其进行行业、板块2重划分。 寻找"底部企稳"机会。区别于右侧打法，我们试图寻找尚在低位、出现明显企稳形态的主题机会 。而且，底部图形更需要上涨确认。因此，我们构建"股价低位+金针探底+突破确认" 来刻画底部 企稳的形态机会。 刻画"底部反转"机会。相较"企稳"，我们试图构建一个更加强烈的信号，来刻画 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.75%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.68% [1] ETF Performance - The Kexin Pharmaceutical ETF (588130) rose by 4.28%, with the latest price at 1.195 yuan and a turnover rate of 13.94% [1] Stock Performance - Among the constituent stocks, three major gainers included: - 3SBio Inc. up by 20.00% - Zai Lab Ltd. up by 15.50% - EdiGene Inc. up by 14.08% - Maiwei Biopharma up by 11.54% - Rongchang Biopharma up by 10.14% - Conversely, the major decliners included: - Haoyuan Pharmaceutical down by 4.80% - Yirui Technology down by 1.59% - Bairen Medical down by 1.14% - Aohua Endoscopy down by 0.59% - Aibot Medical down by 0.40% [1] Investment Recommendations - Guosen Securities suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with differentiated innovation capabilities and global commercialization potential, as well as leading CDMO companies with high growth in new and existing orders. - The long-term logic of innovative drugs is favored, with attention on potential bottom reversal targets. - Recommendations also include low-valuation medical device companies that are expected to see performance turning points or acceleration [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a focus on three types of assets: growth, quality, and bottom reversal [1][2] - The first type of asset involves capturing industrial trends and investing in high-growth sectors, particularly in AI-related fields such as upstream materials, AI power equipment, and downstream applications like robotics and autonomous driving [1] - The second type emphasizes quality factors, targeting individual stocks with global competitiveness, high earnings certainty, and cost-effective valuations, including companies in the automotive sector with product cycles and autonomous driving capabilities [1] Group 2 - The third type focuses on identifying bottom reversal opportunities in industries and companies, as some asset prices remain significantly below previous highs, indicating potential for reversal [2] - There is optimism regarding domestic and international energy storage demand, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy in the energy structure, with energy storage becoming a crucial resource in the power system [2] - The wind power sector is also expected to see demand exceed expectations, particularly in offshore wind components and turbines, alongside a growing need for power forecasting in a market-oriented electricity environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with three asset categories highlighted for investment opportunities: growth-oriented companies that align with industry trends, high-quality stocks with significant alpha, and industries and companies in a bottom reversal phase [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on growth sectors that capture industry trends, particularly in AI-related fields such as upstream materials, AI power equipment, and downstream applications like robotics and autonomous driving [3][4]. - Emphasis on quality factors to identify stocks with global competitiveness, high earnings certainty, and favorable valuations, including companies in the automotive sector with product cycles and autonomous driving capabilities [4][5]. - Targeting bottom reversal opportunities in industries and companies, particularly in energy storage and wind power, as some asset prices remain significantly below their peaks, indicating potential for recovery [4][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The domestic market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, with ongoing developments in AI applications, energy storage, and power trading expected to drive investment opportunities [5]. - Continuous exploration of high-certainty quality companies will be a priority, aligning with the evolving market landscape [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the evolution of asset classes from a "bond bull market" to a "stock bull market" since the significant policy adjustments on September 24, 2022, influenced by a low interest rate environment [1][4] - The current market is experiencing an "asset shortage," leading asset management institutions to seek higher credit risk assets with larger credit spreads [1][3] - The phenomenon of high equity risk premiums compared to low bond credit spreads has only occurred three times in the past decade, indicating a significant market divergence [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is gradually recovering, with M1 growth exceeding market expectations, influenced by fiscal policy and trade surpluses converting into corporate cash [4][5] - The "barbell strategy" in stock investment has shown strong performance, combining large-cap and small-cap stocks, as well as high-dividend and high-volatility assets [4][6] - Recent trends indicate a reversal in mid-cap and mid-valuation sectors, supported by domestic policies aimed at clearing ineffective supply and improving asset profitability [5][6] Group 3 - Internationally, the focus on artificial intelligence investments is notable, but there is potential for growth in manufacturing-related investments due to rising industrial prices in the U.S. [5][6] - U.S. companies exhibit a positive outlook on capital expenditures across various sectors, which may significantly impact global midstream industries [6]

Group 1: Fund News - The recent liquidation of the Guolian Smart Dividend Stock Fund was announced, with a total fund share of only 6.8446 million [1] - Several QDII funds have imposed purchase limits, including Dachen Global Dollar Bond Fund and Wanjia Nasdaq 100 Index Fund, with a cap of 500,000 yuan for single accounts [2] - The performance gap among pharmaceutical funds has exceeded 120% year-to-date, with funds focused on Hong Kong innovative drugs leading the pack [3] Group 2: Fund Manager Insights - Fund manager Zou Hui from Industrial Bank maintains a long-term bullish outlook, citing macro policy support and structural highlights from new and old economic drivers [3] - Key investment areas for the second half of the year include technology innovation, dividend expansion, and potential bottom reversals in sectors like military, agriculture, and certain new energy areas [3] Group 3: ETF Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 0.77% and 1.62%, respectively, with total trading volume reaching 1.84 trillion yuan [4] - Oil and gas stocks showed strong performance, with the Oil and Gas Resource ETF leading with a gain of 3.35% [4][5] Group 4: ETF Opportunities - The government continues to emphasize anti-involution and stable growth, with the chemical industry undergoing capacity elimination assessments, which may enhance competitiveness [7]