工业利润超季节性反弹 ■ 证券研究报告 张伟 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhanqwei04@ctsec.com 连桐杉 联系人 liants@ctsec.com 宏观专题报告 / 2026.01.27 核心观点 工业企业利润增速为何回升： 12 月，工业经营量、价和利润率增速同升。 * 利润的支撑源于产量增速足够高，对冲了单位利润被压缩的负面影响，使得 利润总额仍会因规模效应而增长，利润率的支撑或源自营业外收支。 分结构来看： * ❖ 库存视角来看: 请阅读最后一页的重要声明! ❖ 上游采矿业"不增利+不增收+不增率",与上个月相比利润出现大幅回落,营 收增速也由正转负。非金属矿采选营收是核心掣肘,属于常规回落,采矿业中 煤炭开采和有色采选业出现营收"止跌回暖"可能与去年可比基数调降引起 同比增速的回升有关。 * 上游原材料工业"不增收+不增利+增率",利润率回升最多。黑色冶炼业利润 率当月从 12 月的-14.3%上升至 2.9%，盈利能力开始修复，支撑原材料工业 利润率，可能是 12 月生产经济指标修复和年底赶工等因素综合作用的结果。 中游中间品制造业依旧掣肘于 PPI，呈 ...

Profit Trends - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 13.1% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value of -5.5%[5] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in November was approximately 5.7%, which is significantly lower than seasonal levels[12] - The total profit for industrial enterprises in November was 676.6 billion yuan, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2021[12] Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November fell by 2.2% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 2.1% in October[9] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises increased to 85.5 yuan, up by 0.16 yuan year-on-year[29] - The unit revenue expense for the first eleven months was 8.39 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan year-on-year[32] Inventory Insights - As of the end of November, the inventory of finished products for industrial enterprises increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with a 0.9 percentage point rise from October[33] - The actual inventory growth rate, excluding PPI effects, was 6.8%, slightly up from 5.8% in October[33] - The PMI data indicated a divergence, showing a decrease in inventory while actual inventory levels were still rising, suggesting unclear signals regarding destocking[33] Sector Performance - The upstream mining sector showed significant improvement with revenue growth of 5.3% and profit growth of 24.4% in November[23] - The midstream intermediate goods manufacturing sector faced challenges, with revenue and profit growth rates of -10.7% and -21.2%, respectively[26] - The downstream consumer goods manufacturing sector reported a profit margin of 11.7%, but revenue and profit growth were both negative at -12.2% and -22.6%[27]

Profit Trends - In October, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value of 21.6%[6] - The decline in profit growth is attributed to a combination of falling production volumes and rising prices, alongside a decrease in profit margins[7] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in October was approximately 5.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from September, deviating from the typical seasonal increase observed in previous years[12] Sector Analysis - The mining sector experienced a revenue decline, with coal mining and non-metallic mineral extraction showing monthly revenue growth rates of -13.9% and -23.9%, respectively[20] - The beverage and alcohol manufacturing sector saw a profit growth rate of 3.0%, up 27.8 percentage points from the previous value, but the profit margin fell to 13.5%, down 4.8 percentage points[20] - Equipment manufacturing continues to lead in revenue growth and maintains a relatively high profit margin, benefiting from overseas expansion and supply chain restructuring[20] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, a slight improvement from September's decline of 2.3%[8] - Seasonal factors related to winter heating demand contributed to price increases in coal mining and processing, with prices rising by 1.6% and 0.8% respectively in October[20] - The overall industrial profit total for October was 577.1 billion yuan, marking a 103.1 billion yuan decrease from September, the lowest level for the same period since 2020[12] Future Outlook - Excluding base effects, there may be a marginal recovery in industrial enterprise profits in November and December, although the base effect could continue to exert downward pressure[21] - Factors such as prolonged holidays and trade tensions have impacted October's industrial profits, but these disturbances are expected to dissipate[21] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not achieve the desired effects, and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations could arise[25]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In September, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.6% year-on-year, slightly up from the previous value of 20.4%[6] - The industrial added value in September grew by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing August's growth of 5.2%[8] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in September was approximately 5.5%, showing a significant year-on-year increase primarily due to last year's low base effect[11] Group 2: Price and Cost Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in September decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing from August's 2.9%[8] - The cost per hundred yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises decreased by 0.02 yuan year-on-year, contributing to the profit margin improvement[17] - The year-on-year increase in profit margin in September was 14.8%, down from 17.5% in August, indicating a marginal decline in growth momentum[8] Group 3: Sector Performance Insights - The mining sector showed profit growth without revenue increase, with many industries experiencing significant revenue declines but maintaining high profit margins[4] - The equipment manufacturing sector led revenue growth across industries, benefiting from overseas expansion and supply chain restructuring[4] - The raw materials processing and intermediate goods manufacturing sectors exhibited the thinnest profit margins, likely due to weak downstream demand and price transmission issues[4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The support from low base effects for industrial enterprise profits may weaken in the short term, as economic growth improved in the last quarter of the previous year[19] - The PPI's tail effect is expected to diminish in the last quarter of 2025, reducing the low base effect on prices[21] - Risks include potential underperformance of policy measures and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations[23]