Domestic Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3986.9 points, down 0.73% [1][4][9] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13 points, down 1.16%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.84% [1][4][9] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 24643 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, only 4 sectors saw gains, with non-ferrous metals, steel, and transportation leading the increases, while communication, electronics, and defense industries faced significant declines [1][4][9] Overseas Market Overview - All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, the S&P 500 down 0.99%, and the Nasdaq down 1.57% [2][4] - Notable declines included Boeing dropping over 6% and Facebook falling more than 11% [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Xiaoma Zhixing down nearly 7% and Century Interconnect down over 5% [2][4] Key News Highlights - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Busan, emphasizing the importance of stable U.S.-China relations and economic cooperation [3][12][15] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a notice to improve duty-free shop policies to boost consumption [3][16] - The Ministry of Commerce released opinions on expanding green trade, proposing 16 specific measures to enhance trade optimization [3][19] - Reports indicated that the G7 plans to establish a critical mineral alliance to counter China's market dominance, to which the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded [3][20] Economic Data - The People's Bank of China reported that the weighted average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans in Q3 2025 was 3.07% [22] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that cultural enterprises achieved a revenue of 10.96 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [22] - The software business revenue in China reached 11.11 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 13% year-on-year [22]

Core Insights - Microsoft reached a market value of $4 trillion, driven by strong earnings attributed to Azure's growth fueled by AI and increased demand for Copilot, positioning the company as a leader in the AI-driven productivity era [2] - Meta's stock surged over 8% following a 17% year-on-year increase in advertising revenue and the launch of new AI tools for advertisers [2] - In contrast, Amazon and Apple showed lackluster performance despite exceeding Wall Street expectations, with Amazon's stock declining despite $147 billion in revenue [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Microsoft successfully linked its AI investments to revenue growth from Azure and the adoption of Copilot, demonstrating clear business outcomes [4] - Meta proved that AI-driven advertising targeting and content recommendations are maintaining user engagement and increasing advertiser spending [4] - Amazon and Apple, while technologically advanced, struggled to present clear connections between AI investments and measurable revenue, leading to investor skepticism [4][6] Group 2: Market Trends - The current AI landscape has entered an "accountability era," where investors demand visible revenue and business results rather than vague commitments to AI investments [7] - Companies are now rewarded for clarity, execution capability, and monetization potential, shifting focus from mere AI spending to tangible outcomes [4][6] - The future of AI competition will hinge on seamless deployment and execution at scale, emphasizing infrastructure maturity and talent acquisition to convert AI research into differentiated products [5][7] Group 3: Talent and Infrastructure - Effective AI execution requires not just capital expenditure but also the ability to attract and retain talent capable of transforming AI investments into integrated workflows and revenue streams [6] - The competition for talent is intensifying, particularly for engineers who can bridge the gap between research and deployment [6] - Microsoft and Meta's success is attributed to their clear AI narratives combined with visible revenue impacts, supported by scalable infrastructure and teams [6]

Economic Data - The impact of U.S. tariff policies is becoming evident, with June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing structural changes despite appearing weak. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is expected to significantly outperform the core CPI [2] - Analysts predict that the June core PCE month-over-month growth could reach between 0.29% and 0.34%, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [2][3] - The June core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-over-month, below expectations, but core commodity prices have shown a notable increase for the first time since February, particularly in household goods and clothing affected by tariffs [2] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July is set to be released, with analysts forecasting an addition of 110,000 jobs, a decrease from the previous 147,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The June non-farm payroll report indicated that job growth was primarily driven by government employment, while private sector job growth showed signs of cooling [4] Technology Sector Earnings - Major technology companies are set to report earnings, with Microsoft and Meta releasing results on July 30, and Apple and Amazon on July 31. These earnings reports are crucial for the stock market's performance [5] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.3% this year, with a forward P/E ratio of 22, making the upcoming earnings reports from these tech giants critical for market valuations [6] - Apple is facing challenges due to lagging AI advancements and poor iPhone sales, with investors focusing on iPhone sales, service revenue, AI strategy, and tariff risks [6][8] - Amazon's earnings will be scrutinized for its cloud business (AWS), advertising revenue, e-commerce sales, Prime membership income, and capital expenditure plans amid tariff concerns [8] - Meta's stock has surged by 16.8% this year, with investors interested in its advertising revenue, capital expenditures, and AI initiatives [10] - Microsoft has seen its stock price rise significantly, with a market cap exceeding $3.8 trillion. Investors will focus on its cloud business growth and partnership with OpenAI [12] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is anticipated on July 31, with a high probability (97.9%) of maintaining current rates. The market expects a 64.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 49.6% chance in October [15][17] - There is internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for immediate cuts due to labor market concerns, while others prefer to wait for more economic data [18]