（来源：中粮期货纵观期市） 结论 1、美联储降息，日本加息，利差缩减构成2026年美日之间流动性博弈；考虑AI开支加速扩大，流动性 的重要性或将大于美联储降息；2、中国大概率定调明年取得"十五五"开门红，财政货币维持积极；当 下税改、化债、货币与预期有所背离；关注政治局与中央经济工作会议的具体基调；3、财政对消费的 支持力度、节奏，将构成境内商品能否转势的政策基础。 | | | | | | | FOS FUND FUTURES | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NAPA | ROOM | 104 | DOM | FORD | | STARS FORM | BUCK | BOUN | Buyer | BOAR | Plate | | | | | | | | 10年期日 ...

Core Insights - The Global Wellness Institute (GWI) reported that the global wellness economy has reached a record size of $6.8 trillion, marking a 35% growth since 2019 and a projected growth of 7.9% from 2023 to 2024, with expectations to reach $9.8 trillion by 2029 [1][3]. Industry Overview - The wellness industry is now larger than several major global industries, including tourism ($5 trillion), IT ($5.3 trillion), and sports ($2.7 trillion), and is nearly four times the size of the pharmaceutical industry, accounting for 60% of global health and medical spending [3][4]. - By 2029, the wellness industry is expected to represent 7.1% of global GDP [3]. Growth Drivers - The growth is attributed to long-term trends such as aging populations, chronic diseases, increasing mental health issues, and a rising consumer focus on prevention, longevity, and lifestyle optimization [3][4]. - The fastest-growing sector in the past five years has been wellness real estate, with an annual growth rate of 19.5%, driven by demand for homes and communities that support physical and mental health [3]. Sector Performance - Wellness tourism, spas, and thermal/mineral springs have shown strong growth, with health tourism increasing by 13.8%, spas by 14.6%, and thermal/mineral springs by 11.1% from 2023 to 2024, making wellness tourism one of the most dynamic travel categories [4]. - Workplace wellness is the only sector experiencing a decline at -1.5%, reflecting shifts in employer priorities due to the rise of remote work [5]. Regional Insights - North America has the highest per capita health spending at $6,029, followed by Europe at $1,876, indicating significant growth potential in other regions [5]. - Annual growth rates over the past five years were 7.9% in North America, 7.2% in the Middle East and North Africa, and 6.3% in Europe [5]. Future Projections - By 2029, several wellness industry categories are expected to see significant growth, including wellness real estate (15.2%), traditional and complementary medicine (10.8%), mental health (10.1%), spa tourism (10%), wellness tourism (9.1%), and personalized medicine (9.3%) [5]. - Six sectors, including healthy eating, physical exercise, personal care and beauty, wellness tourism, wellness real estate, and traditional and complementary medicine, are projected to exceed $1 trillion each by 2029 [5]. Implications for Investors - The findings suggest a sustained increase in health-oriented consumer demand, with growing investor activity and intensified competition to integrate wellness, nature, culture, and personalized wellness experiences into travel offerings [5].

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, is the first full shutdown since 2013, with no immediate signs of reopening [1][2] - The economic impact of the shutdown will depend on its duration; a short shutdown may only delay income, while a prolonged one could alter economic activity and market expectations [2][3] - The White House predicts a weekly loss of $15 billion due to the shutdown, although this figure is considered exaggerated; the last shutdown in 2018 resulted in a GDP loss of $11 billion over five weeks [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics and Government Restructuring - The shutdown provides an opportunity for the White House to restructure government agencies and shift blame onto the Democratic Party [2] - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is expected to implement significant cuts, including reducing the federal workforce and pressuring Democratic-controlled states [2][3] - The ongoing political struggle between Republicans and Democrats is highlighted, with potential compromises on funding and tax credits being discussed [3] Group 3: Economic Performance of Spain - Spain's economy is growing at approximately 3%, outperforming other Eurozone countries, and has recently received an upgraded credit rating from S&P [4] - The service sector, particularly tourism and IT, has become a key driver of Spain's economic success, aided by EU funds for infrastructure development [4] - Spain's labor reforms have increased flexibility in employment contracts, leading to higher productivity and more full-time job opportunities [4] Group 4: Immigration Policy and Economic Growth in Spain - Spain's immigration policy has attracted a significant number of Spanish-speaking immigrants, contributing to economic growth and addressing labor shortages [5] - The influx of 600,000 new immigrants annually has expanded the tax base and improved government finances, although political stability remains a concern [5] - Spain faces challenges such as high unemployment rates and regulatory burdens that could hinder long-term growth [5] Group 5: Market Focus and Economic Indicators - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes, OPEC+ production decisions, and U.S. consumer confidence indicators [6] - The impact of the government shutdown on U.S. statistical data is noted, with implications for economic analysis and forecasting [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. tariffs, initially perceived as a response to energy issues, are actually aimed at disrupting India's industrialization process, affecting key sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [1] - The Modi government is experiencing internal conflict over how to respond to the tariff crisis, with younger officials advocating for a pivot towards Russia, while older politicians resist this change [3] - The sudden increase of tariffs to 50% on Indian exports has left Modi's administration in a precarious position, contrasting sharply with previous warm relations with the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - Indian entrepreneurs are adapting to the tariff challenges by exploring new partnerships, with IT professionals heading north and textile leaders seeking collaborations in Guangzhou [4] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant economic threat, with $66 billion in business at risk due to the U.S. policy [7] - The concept of a "China solution" is emerging in the Indian business community, suggesting a shift towards cooperation with China to navigate the energy crisis and trade barriers [11][13] Group 3 - Modi's political advisors have concluded that the immediate solution lies in looking eastward for urgent needs while planning for sustainable development in the long term [13] - The recent tariff imposition has prompted discussions about India's geopolitical strategy, highlighting the need for a reassessment of alliances and trade relationships [15]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced significant tariff increases on India due to its oil purchases from Russia, which has caused shock and disappointment among Indian officials [1][3] - India is currently evaluating its response to the tariffs but is not expected to retaliate immediately; instead, it is exploring various trade options to maintain its relationship with the U.S. [1][5] - The Indian Ministry of External Affairs emphasized the stability of its relationship with Russia and stated that its energy procurement is market-driven, not influenced by third-party perspectives [3][5] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that India may refuse to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. as a potential response, indicating a preference for domestic development of defense equipment under the "Make in India" initiative [7] - The tariffs announced by Trump have led to volatility in the Indian stock market, particularly affecting export-intensive sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and automotive, while the IT sector may face indirect impacts [7] - Despite ongoing criticisms of the Trump administration, diplomatic channels between India and the U.S. remain open, with India preparing for the next Quad Security Dialogue summit [7]