Employment Data - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 and the previous value of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, matching expectations but up from 4.2%[3] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for June and July, resulting in a total downward adjustment of 21,000 jobs[3] Sector Performance - The goods-producing sector saw a job loss of 25,000, continuing a downward trend, while the service sector added 63,000 jobs, down from 85,000 in the previous month[4] - Notably, the manufacturing sector lost 12,000 jobs, and government employment decreased by 16,000[11] Market Implications - Following the employment data release, the market anticipates a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and October, with some speculation about a potential 50 basis points cut in September[3] - The short-term U.S. Treasury yields have declined rapidly, while long-term yields have remained relatively stable[5] Economic Outlook - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, but the unemployment rate has not increased significantly, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not act too quickly on rate cuts[4] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data on September 11, which will provide further insights into inflation trends[5] Risks - There are risks associated with the U.S. economy potentially declining more than expected, as well as uncertainties surrounding monetary and fiscal policies[51]

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

Economic Growth - Bahrain's GDP is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2024 at constant prices, with the non-oil sector growing by 3.8% and the oil sector declining by 4.0% [1] - At current prices, GDP growth is expected to be 2.0%, with the oil sector decreasing by 5.8% and non-oil activities increasing by 3.3% [1] - By 2024, the contribution of non-oil activities to GDP is anticipated to reach 86.0% [1] Sector Performance - The information and communication sector is expected to have the highest growth rate in the non-oil sector at 12.3% in 2024 at constant prices [1] - The science and technology sector is projected to grow by 9.5%, followed by the hotel and restaurant services sector at 5.9%, and the transportation and storage sector at 4.9% [1] - The manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 4.5%, while the financial and insurance sector, which contributes the most to GDP, is projected to grow by 4.4% [1] Foreign Direct Investment - Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Bahrain are expected to increase by 5.7% year-on-year by the end of 2024, totaling 17.3 billion Bahraini Dinars [1] Global Competitiveness - Bahrain ranks first in the Arab world in the 2025 Business Environment Index according to the Milken Institute's Global Opportunity Index [2] - In the 2024 Islamic Finance Development Report, Bahrain is ranked seventh globally [2] - Manama is included in the "Smart Cities 2025" ranking by IMD, positioned 36th among 146 cities, surpassing cities like Berlin, New York, and Paris [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite pressures on the US economy, better-than-expected non-farm payroll data has alleviated concerns about a recession, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more patient approach [1][3][6] - In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations [2][3] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, up from the previous 62.5%, indicating a rise in participation among older age groups [5] Group 2 - Employment in the transportation and warehousing sector saw a significant rebound, adding 29,000 jobs in April, compared to just 3,000 in March, which partially offset the negative impact of tariffs on employment data [4] - Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors experienced job losses, with retail employment decreasing by 2,000 and leisure/hospitality adding only 24,000 jobs, both significantly lower than previous values [4] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, improved to 7.8%, down from 7.9% in the previous month, indicating better conditions in the part-time job market [5]

Employment Data Summary - In April 2025, the U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 130,000 but lower than the revised previous value of 185,000[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, matching both the forecast and the previous month's figure[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, in line with the previous value but slightly below the expected 3.9%[1] Sector Performance - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a significant rebound, adding 29,000 jobs in April, up from just 3,000 in March, partially offsetting job losses in other sectors[3] - Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors experienced job declines, with retail jobs decreasing by 2,000 and leisure/hospitality jobs increasing by only 24,000, both significantly lower than previous values[3][17] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.6%, up from 62.5% in the previous month, indicating increased engagement from older age groups[4] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 82,000, while the employed population rose by 436,000, contributing to the stable unemployment rate[4][32] Economic Outlook - Despite the economic pressures, the better-than-expected non-farm data has alleviated some recession fears, suggesting the Federal Reserve may adopt a more patient approach[5] - Following the non-farm data release, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.33%, with market expectations for a potential rate cut in July 2025 at 55.2% probability[5][45] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy, escalating international trade tensions, and geopolitical developments that could impact economic stability[6]

Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The March 2025 non-farm payroll data in the U.S. exceeded expectations, with healthcare services and leisure hospitality being the main contributors. The slight increase in the unemployment rate is primarily due to a rise in labor force participation, indicating a healthy job market overall, although there are signs of marginal weakening [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - In March 2025, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000 and the revised previous value of 117,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, slightly above the expected 4.1% and the previous 4.1%. Year-on-year wage growth was 3.8%, below expectations and the previous value of 4%, while month-on-month growth was 0.3%, consistent with expectations and higher than the revised previous value of 0.2% [2][3]. Sector Contributions - The private sector added 209,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 135,000 and the revised previous value of 116,000. Job gains were seen across various sectors, with the goods-producing sector adding 12,000 jobs and the service sector adding 197,000 jobs. Notably, education and healthcare services contributed 77,800 jobs, while leisure and hospitality added 43,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate in March was 62.5%, higher than the previous and expected values of 62.4%. The slight increase in the unemployment rate was attributed to this rise in participation, with the unemployment rate moving from 4.139% in February to 4.152% in March [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The March employment data did not raise concerns for the Federal Reserve, which prioritized inflation risks over economic growth pressures. Powell's statements indicated no intention for risk management-style rate cuts similar to those in 2019, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising inflation concerns [6][7]. Market Implications - The significant increase in non-farm payrolls and the slight rise in unemployment are viewed as a "calm before the storm" regarding tariff impacts. The market consensus suggests that the current employment data may not provide sufficient safety margins due to the unexpected breadth and depth of Trump's tariff increases, which could lead to economic adjustments [7][8]. Future Outlook - In the absence of a "Trump Put," market sentiment is expected to remain subdued, continuing to adjust in a "stagflation-like environment." The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks may hinder any immediate easing measures, despite favorable employment data [8][9].