Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 125,000, and aligning closely with the average monthly addition of 149,000 over the past year, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The private sector contributed significantly to job growth, adding 140,000 jobs, with the service industry being the largest contributor, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth [2][3] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations, reflecting strong wage pressure in the labor market [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The manufacturing sector, particularly those sensitive to tariffs, saw a reduction of 8,000 jobs, marking the largest decline this year, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The actual unemployment rate slightly increased, with approximately 71,000 more people unemployed in May, indicating a rise from 4.187% in April to 4.244% [4] - A notable decrease in labor supply was observed, with about 625,000 individuals leaving the labor market, contributing to a decline in the labor force participation rate [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with a slow and mild growth deceleration trend expected to continue unless significant unexpected events occur [5] - The labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges posed by tariffs, with the Federal Reserve focusing on the unemployment rate as a key indicator for economic health [3]

（原标题：2024年巴林接受外国投资达到173亿第纳尔） 在非石油行业表现方面，信息和通信业在非石油行业中增长率最高，2024年（按不变价格计算）年 增长率达到12.3%。其次是科学技术行业增长9.5%；酒店和餐饮服务业增长5.9%；运输和仓储业增长 4.9%。制造业增长4.5%。对GDP贡献最大的金融和保险业也实现了4.4%的增长。 报告还强调，截至 2024年底，流入巴林的外国直接投资 (FDI) 同比增长5.7%，总额达到173亿巴林 第纳尔。 编译巴林国家报5月5日报道：巴林财经部今天发布了巴林2024年经济报告。根据电子政务局发布的 数据显示，2024年巴林国内生产总值（GDP）按不变价格计算，增长率为2.6%，其中非石油行业增长 3.8%，而石油行业则下降4.0%。按现行价格计算，GDP增长2.0%，其中石油行业下降5.8%，非石油活 动同比增长3.3%。到2024年非石油活动对GDP的贡献率将达到86.0%。 此外，报告还强调了巴林在全球竞争力报告和指标中的表现。根据米尔肯研究所发布的《2025年全 球机遇指数》，巴林在《2025年营商环境指数》中位居阿拉伯世界榜首。在伊斯兰私营部门发展公司和 ...

2025年5月2日，美国劳工部公布2025年4月非农数据：新增非农就业17.7万人，预期13.0万人，前值由 22.8万人修正至18.5万人;4月失业率4.2%，预期4.2%，前值4.2%;平均时薪同比升3.8%，预期升3.9%，前 值升3.8%。 核心观点： 2025年4月美国新增就业回落，但高于市场预期。从结构看，关税扰动下零售业、休闲酒店业就业转 弱，显示美国经济承压，但4月运输和仓储行业新增就业大幅回升，部分对冲了关税对就业数据的影 响，或因美国厂商在对等关税生效前赶工而大量招聘人员，持续性存疑。结合本次非农数据的结构与被 下修的前值，美国就业市场压力依然存在。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，尽管美国经济承压，但高于预期的非农数据减弱了市场对美 国经济衰退的担忧，美联储或保持更多耐心。从就业数据看，尽管后续就业数据或有转弱风险，但就4 月数据本身而言，失业率未有抬升，以及新增就业17.7万人的读数并不差，短期内美联储或继续保持观 望，尚在等待经济转弱的更多信号。 以下为研报核心观点 事件： 展望看，从就业数据看，尽管后续就业数据或有转弱风险，但就4月数据本身而言，失业率未有抬升， 以及新增就 ...

2025 年 5 月 3 日 非农暂时稳定，缓和市场衰退担忧 ——2025 年 4 月美国非农数据点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 5 月 2 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 4 月非农数据：新增非农就业 17.7 万人，预期 13.0 万人，前值由 22.8 万人修正至 18.5 万人；4 月失业率 4.2%， 预期 4.2%，前值 4.2%；平均时薪同比升 3.8%，预期升 3.9%，前值升 3.8%。 核心观点： 2025 年 4 月美国新增就业回落，但高于市场预期。从结构看，关税扰动下零售 业、休闲酒店业就业转弱，显示美国经济承压，但 4 月运输和仓储行业新增就业 大幅回升，部分对冲了关税对就业数据的影响，或因美国厂商在对等关税生效前 赶工而大量招聘人员，持续性存疑。结合本次非农数据的结构与被下修的前值， 美国就业市场压力依然存在。 尽管美国经济承压，但高于预期的非农数据减弱了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧， 美联储或保持更多耐心。从就业数据看，尽管后续就业数据或有转弱风险，但就 4 月数据本身而言，失业率未有抬升，以及新增就业 17.7 万人的读数并不差， 短期内美联储或继续保持观望，尚在等待经济转弱的 ...

Economic Performance - Singapore's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter [1] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) revised the GDP growth forecast for the year from 1.0%-3.0% to 0.0%-2.0% due to uncertainties such as the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [1][3] Sector Performance - Manufacturing output grew by 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, a decrease from 7.4% in the previous quarter, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.9% [1] - Construction output increased by 4.6% year-on-year, maintaining the previous quarter's growth rate of 4.4%, but saw a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.3% [1] - Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and warehousing sectors grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in the previous quarter [2] External Factors - MTI highlighted that the US's imposition of a 10% "baseline tariff" and increased tariffs on countries with significant trade surpluses will negatively impact global trade and economic growth [3] - The decline in external demand is expected to adversely affect Singapore's economy and the ASEAN region, leading to reduced consumer confidence and domestic investment [3][4] Financial Sector Impact - The financial and insurance sectors are anticipated to experience reduced trading activity due to risk-averse sentiment, negatively impacting net fees and commissions from banking and financial services [5] - The uncertain economic environment may suppress corporate capital investment and limit credit intermediation activities [5] Overall Economic Outlook - MTI expects external demand to weaken significantly by the end of the year, particularly affecting export-oriented sectors like manufacturing and wholesale trade [4] - The economic growth forecast for Singapore is expected to slow from 4.4% last year to between 0.0% and 2.0% this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The March 2025 non-farm payroll data in the U.S. exceeded expectations, with healthcare services and leisure hospitality being the main contributors. The slight increase in the unemployment rate is primarily due to a rise in labor force participation, indicating a healthy job market overall, although there are signs of marginal weakening [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Employment Data - In March 2025, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 140,000 and the revised previous value of 117,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, slightly above the expected 4.1% and the previous 4.1%. Year-on-year wage growth was 3.8%, below expectations and the previous value of 4%, while month-on-month growth was 0.3%, consistent with expectations and higher than the revised previous value of 0.2% [2][3]. Sector Contributions - The private sector added 209,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 135,000 and the revised previous value of 116,000. Job gains were seen across various sectors, with the goods-producing sector adding 12,000 jobs and the service sector adding 197,000 jobs. Notably, education and healthcare services contributed 77,800 jobs, while leisure and hospitality added 43,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate in March was 62.5%, higher than the previous and expected values of 62.4%. The slight increase in the unemployment rate was attributed to this rise in participation, with the unemployment rate moving from 4.139% in February to 4.152% in March [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Stance - The March employment data did not raise concerns for the Federal Reserve, which prioritized inflation risks over economic growth pressures. Powell's statements indicated no intention for risk management-style rate cuts similar to those in 2019, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising inflation concerns [6][7]. Market Implications - The significant increase in non-farm payrolls and the slight rise in unemployment are viewed as a "calm before the storm" regarding tariff impacts. The market consensus suggests that the current employment data may not provide sufficient safety margins due to the unexpected breadth and depth of Trump's tariff increases, which could lead to economic adjustments [7][8]. Future Outlook - In the absence of a "Trump Put," market sentiment is expected to remain subdued, continuing to adjust in a "stagflation-like environment." The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks may hinder any immediate easing measures, despite favorable employment data [8][9].