如果你是一位港股投资者，今年的账户表现可能会让你怀疑人生。 第二个驱动力：大宗商品价格持续上行，能源原材料板块业绩直接兑现。 打开账户一看，有的人赚得盆满钵满，有的人亏得怀疑人生。这不是运气问题，而是你有没有站对队的 问题。 来看一组数据：截至2026年2月底，恒生综合行业指数呈现出罕见的极致分化。原材料业暴涨23.62%， 地产建筑业大涨20.02%，能源业涨18.8%，工业涨15.87%。而另一边，信息科技业大跌9.74%，电讯业 跌2.39%，非必需性消费微跌0.65%。 首尾相差超过33个百分点。这意味着，如果你年初买的是原材料，现在已经赚了将近四分之一；如果你 买的是科技股，可能已经亏了十个点。冰火两重天，不过如此。 那么，究竟是什么原因导致了如此剧烈的分化？ 说白了，市场的定价逻辑正在发生根本性转变——从"讲故事"转向"看业绩"，从"成长叙事"转向"政策 确定性"。 第一个驱动力：稳增长政策超预期发力，地产链风险基本解除。 这是本轮分化最核心的政策逻辑。2025年底中央经济工作会议定调"着力稳定房地产市场"后，2026年开 年政策密集落地：商业用房首付比例从50%直接降到30%，二手房增值税减免， ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on the first trading day of the Year of the Rabbit, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.1% to 26,413.35 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 2.91% to 5,211.5 points [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.22% to 8,959.56 points, while the Hang Seng Red Chip Index saw a slight increase of 0.09% to 4,384.28 points [1] - The total market turnover was HKD 165.373 billion [1] Sector Performance - The internet technology sector saw significant declines, with Baidu dropping over 6% and Alibaba falling nearly 5% [1] - Semiconductor stocks also weakened, with Hua Hong Semiconductor down nearly 6% and SMIC declining over 3% [1] - Conversely, the domestic AI large model sector experienced gains, with Zhiyun rising nearly 43% and MiniMax increasing over 14%, both surpassing a market capitalization of HKD 300 billion [1] Notable Stock Movements - Among the Hang Seng Index constituents, JD Health fell by 6.27%, Baidu Group-SW decreased by 6.25%, and Alibaba-W dropped by 4.91% [1] - In contrast, China Petroleum gained 3.7%, Henderson Land rose by 3%, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group increased by 2.63% [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's GLP-1/GIP receptor dual agonist long-acting injection received FDA approval for clinical trials targeting weight management in obese or overweight patients with related comorbidities [1] Industry Indices - The Consumer Discretionary Index fell by 3.00%, the Information Technology Index decreased by 2.30%, and the Consumer Staples Index dropped by 1.64% [2] - On the other hand, the Energy Index rose by 1.62%, the Healthcare Index increased by 0.77%, and the Industrial Index saw a gain of 0.31% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue structural growth in the short term, supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the ongoing recovery of A-share sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The demand for AI is showing continuous improvement, which will benefit the technology sector in Hong Kong stocks [1] - Investors should remain cautious of external policy uncertainties, such as recent adjustments to the value-added tax scope, which have raised concerns about the tax burden on internet value-added services and triggered a rapid decline in platform technology stocks [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - In terms of industry structure, essential consumption and public utilities are relatively resilient, while information technology and materials sectors are leading the decline, reflecting weak market risk appetite [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A prudent allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend assets as a foundation, while also paying attention to sectors with both profit improvement and growth potential in technology and consumption [1] Group 4: Index Information - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which selects 50 representative securities from Hong Kong listed companies available for trading through the Stock Connect, emphasizing the financial sector while also covering telecommunications and consumption [1] - The constituent stocks of this index exhibit high market liquidity and scale characteristics, aiming to reflect the overall performance of large blue-chip enterprises in the Hong Kong stock market [1]

A-Share Market - The A-share market exhibited a volatile trend this week, with an average daily trading volume of 3.06 trillion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.44% [6] - Major indices showed mixed performance, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI A100 recording positive returns, while the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices experienced declines [6] - Sector performance was diverse, with cyclical and value sectors such as oil, petrochemicals, telecommunications, coal, and non-ferrous metals performing well, while growth sectors like computers, power equipment, new energy, and automobiles faced significant declines [6] - The market displayed structural characteristics and volatility, with precious metals and resource cyclical sectors initially strong but later retreating due to fluctuations in international gold prices, indicating rapid shifts in market sentiment and short-term speculative influences [6][7] - AI and technology growth stocks continued to attract capital, as evidenced by the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 index, supporting the investment logic in growth directions [6] Outlook for A-Share Market - The short-term outlook suggests a continuation of structural trends, but increased volatility is anticipated. Cyclical sectors that were previously strong may face correction pressures if lacking sustained catalysts [7] - With the Spring Festival approaching, the period after the festival until the Two Sessions may present a more certain upward trend, suggesting opportunities for strategic positioning post-festival [7] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market showed strong overall performance this week, with major indices rising, including a 2.38% increase in the Hang Seng Index and a 1.71% rise in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [8] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a slight decline of 1.38%, indicating volatility within the technology sector [8] - Leading sectors included energy (7.44%), real estate and construction (5.71%), and finance (5.3%), while information technology and healthcare sectors saw slight declines [8] - The market exhibited complex and differentiated characteristics, with a rebound in property stocks due to rising policy expectations, while gold and non-ferrous metal stocks experienced significant fluctuations influenced by international gold price volatility [8] - Despite a slight decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index, certain AI concept stocks like Baidu and Alibaba remained active due to advancements in AI chips, highlighting the sustained appeal of AI as a long-term driver [8] Outlook for Hong Kong Market - The outlook for the Hong Kong market suggests a potential continuation of structural upward trends, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a recovery in A-share sentiment [9] - Continued improvement in AI demand is expected to benefit the technology sector in Hong Kong, although investors should remain cautious of external policy uncertainties and consider a prudent allocation strategy, focusing on high-dividend assets and sectors with both profitability improvement and growth potential [9]

Group 1: A-Share Market - The A-share market showed strong performance this week, with significant increases in trading activity. The CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 indices rose by 7.92%, 7.03%, and 6.54% respectively, indicating a strong performance of small-cap stocks [3][7] - The market's upward trend was driven by increased risk appetite, with technology innovation sectors such as brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace, and AI applications becoming the main focus. Industries like electronics, computers, and defense received substantial capital inflows [5][7] - The average daily trading volume reached 2.85 trillion, a significant increase of 35.68% compared to the previous period [3][7] - The outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum in the short term, particularly in the first quarter, driven by macroeconomic improvements and favorable policies [8] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market exhibited a weaker overall performance this week, with major indices such as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng Index declining by 1.31%, 0.86%, and 0.41% respectively [9] - Despite the overall decline, there was structural differentiation within the market, with the healthcare sector leading gains at 10.06%, while telecommunications, information technology, and energy sectors underperformed [9] - The geopolitical situation, particularly U.S.-China relations, has influenced market sentiment, with recent announcements regarding increased U.S. defense spending impacting risk appetite [9] - Future expectations for the Hong Kong market suggest a potential recovery in the technology sector, influenced by the rising sentiment in the A-share technology sector and domestic economic recovery [9]

Group 1: A-Share Market - The A-share market showed a mixed performance this week, with value sectors being relatively strong. Major indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 2000 saw slight increases, while the ChiNext index fell by 2.26%. Value performance was notable across large, mid, and small-cap stocks, with sectors such as retail, consumer services, and non-bank financials leading the gains. The average daily trading volume was 1.76 trillion, down 9.86% week-on-week [6][7]. - The market experienced a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, indicating structural hotspots. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) chairman emphasized the need to deepen the capital market's 14th Five-Year Plan and expand high-level opening-up to boost market confidence. The Central Financial Office highlighted that expanding domestic demand is a primary task for the coming year, aiming to stimulate consumption through supply and demand-side efforts [6][7]. - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to remain structurally active due to ongoing policy support for capital markets and consumption. Despite a decline in trading volume, support from emerging industries like technology and new energy, along with the push for domestic demand, will provide market backing. Investors are advised to focus on sectors benefiting from policy support, such as consumption upgrades, technological innovation, and high-end manufacturing [7]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market faced overall pressure this week, with major indices recording declines. The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.1%, 1.96%, and 2.82%, respectively, with the technology index experiencing the largest drop. Essential consumer and financial sectors rose against the trend, while most sectors, including information technology and non-essential consumer goods, showed weakness [8]. - Despite the overall pressure, the market was supported by expectations of improved liquidity due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In 2025, the Fed has already cut rates three times, with potential for further easing, which may optimize the debt side for Hong Kong stocks. Additionally, a rebound in U.S. tech stocks provided some uplift to the Hong Kong technology sector [8]. - In the future, while the Hong Kong market may experience volatility due to external factors, the expected improvement in liquidity from the Fed's easing cycle will have a positive impact. Strong performance from the mainland economy and ongoing policy support, particularly in high-level opening-up, will provide a solid foundation for the Hong Kong market. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors benefiting from Fed easing and mainland economic recovery, as well as technology sectors with growth potential amid the AI wave [8].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market fell by 5.09% last week, primarily influenced by the materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors, with the healthcare sector experiencing a significant decline of 8.65%[1] - The telecommunications and utilities sectors showed relative stability, with minor declines of 1.58% and 2.18% respectively, indicating a cautious market sentiment overall[1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 38.602 billion, suggesting a stabilization in the market as some short positions took profits[1] Investment Environment - Global risk appetite remained cautious, with major asset classes experiencing varying degrees of decline due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction[2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreement regarding the policy direction for December, contributing to market uncertainty[2] - A dovish statement from New York Fed President Williams improved market sentiment towards the end of the week[2] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to improve, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by enhanced risk appetite and restored liquidity following the reopening of the U.S. government[3] - The upcoming release of the November CPI data on December 10 is anticipated to clarify the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for December, maintaining a level of uncertainty until then[3] - The overall liquidity situation is improving, as indicated by a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account balance, which suggests an influx of liquidity into the market[3]

Group 1: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced an overall increase this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.08%, while the North China 50 index fell by 3.79%, indicating significant market differentiation [6] - The market style showed a clear shift towards value and cyclical sectors, driven primarily by traditional energy and materials industries, with substantial profit improvements in the steel sector during Q3 providing solid performance support [6][7] - Future expectations for the A-share market suggest a continuation of structural trends supported by policy and liquidity, with a focus on "developing new productive forces" as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing anti-involution and technology [7] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market also saw an overall increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.29%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.20%, reflecting significant internal differentiation [8] - The performance of the Hong Kong market was influenced by two main factors: increased correlation with the A-share market and strong earnings in energy and financial sectors benefiting from "dual carbon" policy expectations [8] - Looking ahead, the Hong Kong market is expected to navigate between "Chinese fundamentals" and "overseas liquidity," with energy and financial sectors likely to remain stabilizers, while technology stocks may face pressure from overseas market trends [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the core view is that the new growth industry prosperity cycle has been established, with AI computing infrastructure holding a core position that remains unshaken, and the application end showing significant advantages in diffusion [5][6][17] - The report highlights that during the National Day holiday, overseas equity markets rose, and external risk appetite remained strong, with sectors such as biotechnology, semiconductor equipment, metal raw materials, and information technology leading in gains [5][16] - The report suggests that the current trend of rising markets is far from over, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure as the main line of investment, while also emphasizing sectors with hard support for performance, such as electric power equipment and non-ferrous metals [5][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the AI computing infrastructure sector is the most critical direction for investment, aligning with institutional preferences for growth trends, while AI applications are seen as the easiest to carry internal valuation diffusion [6][17] - The report identifies a second main line of investment in sectors with hard support or performance exceeding expectations, including electric power equipment (wind power, energy storage, batteries), non-ferrous metals (rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals), and machinery equipment [6][17] - The report emphasizes that the electric power equipment sector benefits from high demand for wind power exports, overseas energy storage, breakthroughs in solid-state batteries, and improvements in power supply equipment due to data center construction [6][17]