本报记者 陈子帅 本报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁 多家金融机构近日对美国经济状况发出警告。国际信用评估机构穆迪公司的首席经济学家马克·赞迪表 示，美国将近一半（22个）的州已处在经济衰退和收缩状态；美国最大银行之一摩根大通的首席执行官 杰米·戴蒙警告称，政府开支、通货膨胀以及美国现任政府的关税政策，最早可能在2026年引发本国经 济衰退；美国经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯则认为，特定年龄群体的劳动参与率下降和失业率上升，是美国 经济衰退的两个重要"预警信号"。 衰退几乎遍及全美 就在上个月，美国商务部公布的数据显示，2025年二季度美国经济环比增长3.8%，高于市场普遍预 期；劳工部公布的非农业部门就业数据显示，美国8月份失业率较上月增加0.1个百分点升至4.3%，创近 4年来新高。 马克·赞迪在接受美国《财富》杂志采访时表示，尽管美国整体的经济数据表现强劲，但实际上该国将 近一半（22个）的州已处在经济衰退和萎缩状态。许多中低收入家庭即便就业稳定，但仍受债务压力和 薪资增长放缓影响，处于"勉强支撑"的状态。 根据穆迪的研究，衰退程度最严重的是华盛顿哥伦比亚特区。赞迪表示，这在意料之中，因为今年联邦 政府已实施大规模裁员 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple financial institutions have issued warnings regarding the economic conditions in the United States, indicating that nearly half of the states are experiencing recession and contraction, with significant concerns about government spending, inflation, and tariff policies potentially leading to a recession by 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy showed a 3.8% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 2025, surpassing market expectations, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking a near four-year high [2]. - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi noted that 22 states are in recession or contraction, with the most severe impact felt in Washington D.C. due to federal layoffs and funding cuts [2]. - The economic downturn is not confined to specific regions but spans from the East Coast to the West Coast, with California and New York's economic stability being crucial for the national economy [2]. Group 2: Tariff Policies - Economic downturn is attributed to the current government's tariff policies, which have reached the highest average levels in over fifty years, posing significant challenges to consumers and the overall economy [3]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns about inflation and government spending, particularly the impact of import tariffs on the economy [3]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Economist Thomas Simons highlighted two alarming trends in the labor market: a decline in labor participation rates among specific age groups and an increase in unemployment rates [5]. - The labor market is facing challenges with younger workers struggling to enter the workforce while older workers are retiring, leading to a potential hollowing out of the labor market [5]. - A recent poll indicated that nearly half of respondents believe the U.S. economy is worsening, with about one-third believing the country is already in a recession [5].

Core Insights - The overall FICO score in the U.S. has slightly decreased by approximately 2 percentage points due to inflation and rising interest rates affecting consumer affordability and leading to financial strain among borrowers [1] - The percentage of the population with FICO scores between 600 and 749 is projected to decline from 38.1% in 2021 to 33.8% by 2025 [1] - The most significant decline in scores is observed among Generation Z adults, primarily due to student loan pressures [1] - The report indicates that the student loan delinquency rate has reached a historical high, with over 10% of 21 million customers having overdue student loans [1] - Despite the challenges, many consumers still maintain good credit status, with average credit scores remaining close to historical highs [1] - Average FICO scores are considered a lagging indicator of credit health, suggesting that future average scores may face various risks [1]

Core Insights - Sesame Credit announced a strategic upgrade to its commercial credit service system, expanding local life scene access and officially opening product capabilities to Gaode Map, creating the "Gaode Street Ranking" based on real user behavior [1][3] - The new evaluation system allows Sesame Credit to influence merchants' comprehensive scores through user-authorized evaluations, enhancing the authenticity and trustworthiness of merchant ratings [1][3] Group 1: User Engagement and Impact - The "Gaode Street Ranking" quickly gained popularity, with over 40 million users on its first day, showcasing the strong engagement from both Sesame Credit and Gaode Map users [3] - The collaboration signifies a shift from internal service to industry-wide empowerment, establishing a reusable and scalable commercial credit solution that drives trust upgrades across the industry [3][11] Group 2: Trust and Evaluation Mechanism - The new ranking system combines customer behavior data and genuine reviews, with higher weight given to evaluations from high-credit users, thus enhancing the credibility of merchant ratings [7] - This shift aims to reduce the reliance on quantity of positive reviews and encourages merchants to focus on improving product and service quality, providing consumers with more reliable decision-making references [7][5] Group 3: Historical Development and Infrastructure - Sesame Credit has evolved over ten years from a commercial credit scoring tool to a foundational infrastructure for commercial credit services, supported by over 700 million users and extensive transaction validation [8][9] - The introduction of various credit applications, such as "no deposit" models in shared services and the "first enjoy" model in e-commerce, illustrates the adaptability and growth of Sesame Credit's offerings [9][8] Group 4: Future Directions and Market Expansion - Sesame Credit plans to expand its product capabilities to more platforms and merchants, aiming to create a more authentic and trustworthy service evaluation system [10][12] - The initiative represents a move towards a broader B2B market space, standardizing and productizing credit to reduce transaction costs and fraud risks across various sectors [12][11]