家得宝（Home Depot）于上周二公布最新财报。图片来源：David Paul Morris—Bloomberg/Getty Images 出于对经济和利率的担忧，家得宝的顾客们正搁置大型家居装修项目，转而专注于小型项目。 家得宝首席执行官泰德·德克尔（Ted Decker）在上周二的财报电话会议中表示，消费者或许会重新开始 刷墙、修整庭院，但不会着手推进大型家居装修项目。 麦克菲尔对《华尔街日报》表示，消费者并未取消厨房改造、浴室升级这类需贷款支持的项目，但"受 整体经济形势不确定性，以及利率上升推高借贷成本的影响，他们仍在推迟大型项目"。 美联储为抑制通胀采取一系列举措后，利率始终处于高位。自2024年底以来，美联储将利率稳定维持在 4.25%至4.5%的区间内，不过部分人士正密切关注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在即将召 开的杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上的发言，以期捕捉降息信号。与此同时，经济学家们愈发频繁地发出 警告，称低增长与高通胀并存的滞胀威胁加剧。7月同比通胀率涨幅约为2.7%，就业市场面临的威胁也 在持续升级。 尽管近期房地产市场增速放缓——这意味着房屋交易前后的家装 ...

Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q2, exceeding market expectations and slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.4% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, with significant contributions from the services and agriculture sectors [1] Sector Performance - The services sector was the main driver of economic growth in Q2, growing by 5.3% compared to 5.0% in Q1, supported by wholesale and retail trade, transportation, and business services [1] - Agriculture showed notable improvement with a 2.0% growth in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, largely due to increased palm oil production [1] - The construction industry continued its strong growth, achieving an 11% increase in Q2, despite a slowdown from 14.2% in Q1, driven by non-residential and specialized construction activities [2] - Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.8% in Q2 from 4.1% in Q1, but key sectors like electrical, electronic, and food processing remained robust [2] - The mining and quarrying sector faced challenges, contracting by 7.4% in Q2, worsened from a 2.7% decline in Q1, primarily due to falling oil and gas production [2] Domestic Consumption - Strong domestic consumption was a key factor in Q2 economic growth, supported by a stable labor market and low unemployment rates, which bolstered household spending [2] - Government cash assistance programs, such as SARA and STR, provided additional support to household spending, alleviating economic pressure on families [3] Trade and Policy Challenges - Despite exceeding growth expectations, Malaysia's economy faces challenges from global trade uncertainties, with exports unexpectedly declining by 3.5% in June [3] - Potential tariffs from the U.S. on Malaysian exports, particularly a proposed 25% tariff effective August 1, could significantly impact the export market [3] - The slowdown in major export markets may also affect export demand, alongside domestic policy adjustments that could pressure economic growth [3] Future Outlook - The central bank anticipates a slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year but expects the annual growth rate to exceed 4.5% [4] - Continued domestic demand growth and government policy support are expected to provide some buffer for the economy [4] - The central bank is closely monitoring trade and tariff developments and is likely to implement further interest rate cuts later in the year to support economic growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rising interest rates are causing difficulties for homebuyers in the United States [1] Group 1 - The increase in interest rates is impacting the affordability of homes for potential buyers [1] - Homebuyers are facing challenges in securing mortgages due to higher borrowing costs [1] - The current economic environment is leading to concerns about the housing market's stability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that markets outside the US present better investment opportunities due to attractive valuations and supportive fiscal spending and central bank policies [1] - Despite ongoing trade disputes, geopolitical tensions, expanding fiscal deficits, and rising interest rates, the market is approaching historical highs, indicating a recovery from recent lows [1] - Investors are reassessing the market, with expectations that risk factors will have limited impact, focusing instead on positive elements such as stable corporate earnings and increasing fiscal spending [1] Group 2 - Prudential has reduced its underweight allocation to large US stocks due to balanced upside and downside risks surrounding tariff negotiations [2] - The company maintains an underweight allocation to bonds due to increased supply needed for US fiscal policy and potential inflation threats from tariffs that could raise US interest rates [2] - Prudential has decreased its underweight allocation to growth stocks relative to value stocks, driven by renewed enthusiasm for AI investments [2] Group 3 - The company continues to favor short-duration bonds as the short end of the yield curve is constrained by Federal Reserve policies, while the long end has more upside potential [2] - Prudential maintains a high allocation to inflation-linked bonds and Asian credit [2] - The company also holds a high allocation to cash for its attractive yield and to limit duration risk, although some cash has been reallocated to equity risk [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global order is shifting from a US-led system to a more fragmented world, leading to sustained inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, a weaker dollar, record-high gold prices, and increased demand for safe-haven assets in the coming years [1] Inflation and Interest Rates - The chief macro strategist at Singapore's OCBC Bank, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, indicates that inflation will remain elevated for the next five to ten years due to the changing global dynamics [1] - The US core inflation rate has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for five consecutive years since the pandemic began [1] Currency and Asset Trends - A weaker dollar is anticipated as part of the global economic transition [1] - There is an expectation for gold prices to reach new highs, reflecting the increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] Government Policies Impact - Increased defense spending and tariff policies under the Trump administration are likely to contribute to sustained inflation above the Federal Reserve's target for the remainder of the decade [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's latest report indicates that the default rate for high-risk U.S. companies is expected to rise slightly by 2026 due to economic slowdown and rising interest rates, particularly among speculative-grade firms [1][4]. Economic Environment - The tightening global monetary environment is a contributing factor to this trend, with the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield likely to exceed nominal GDP growth for the first time since 2011, increasing corporate financing costs [4]. - The probability of a recession in the U.S. economy is currently estimated at around 30%, highlighting significant risks to economic growth [4]. Corporate Financing Challenges - The tightening of loan standards by U.S. banks adds another layer of burden for companies, exacerbating the default risk amid economic slowdown and rising interest rates [6]. - Companies that rely heavily on high leverage and high-yield debt will face more severe challenges in the coming years [6]. Overall Economic Outlook - Despite potential growth in certain sectors, the overall economic environment in the U.S. remains uncertain, with factors such as slowing economic growth and rising financing costs likely preventing a decrease in corporate default rates by 2026 [6]. - The report emphasizes the need for investors to carefully assess the debt risks of high-risk companies and prepare for potential default events in the future [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizawa Ryozo, indicated that a significant rise in interest rates could increase the financing costs of Japan's debt, negatively impacting the economy through higher mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs [1] Group 1 - A substantial increase in interest rates may lead to higher financing costs for Japan's debt [1] - Rising mortgage rates could adversely affect the Japanese economy [1] - Increased corporate borrowing costs may also have a negative impact on economic performance [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong will maintain the peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar, while enhancing its position as a global offshore RMB business center, with plans to introduce more RMB products for overseas investors [1] - The US Senate plans to propose significant revisions to Trump's $3 trillion economic plan, aiming for enactment before July 4, despite criticisms from figures like Elon Musk [1] - The New York Fed's survey indicates a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for May, with the one-year expectation dropping from 3.6% to 3.2%, marking the first decline since 2024 [2] Group 2 - Japan's Cabinet Office revised the first quarter GDP contraction to a 0.2% annual rate, better than the initial estimate of 0.7%, which may support the Bank of Japan's cautious stance [2] - The Japanese government is considering repurchasing previously issued ultra-long bonds at low interest rates, in response to rising yields [3] - Japanese investors sold a record ¥1.48 trillion in German sovereign bonds in April, the largest monthly reduction since 2014, and also sold ¥1.07 trillion in US sovereign bonds, the largest reduction since October of the previous year [3] Group 3 - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones remaining flat at 42,761.76 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.09% to 6,005.88 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.31% to 19,591.24 points [4] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993%, and the 10-year yield down 3.18 basis points to 4.474% [4] Group 4 - International oil prices strengthened, with US crude oil main contract rising by 1.24% to $65.38 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract increasing by 0.96% to $67.11 per barrel [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.19% to 99.01, while non-US currencies generally appreciated against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in interest rates will lead to higher government debt financing costs, potentially putting pressure on government spending [1] Group 1 - Rising interest rates will increase the cost of debt financing for the government [1] - Higher financing costs may impact the government's ability to maintain current spending levels [1]

日本首相石破茂：日本长期处于低利率环境，因此部分公众尚未体验到利率上升的感受。 ...