[汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 国泰海通晨报 2026 年 03 月 04 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【固定收益研究】：局部战争冲击债市的窗口通常不超过数周，真正撬动利率的始终是通胀预 期与货币政策。 2、【交通运输研究】航空：2026 年春运需求旺盛，节后票价上行继续良好，Q1 行业盈利可期。 近日中东局势升级致地缘油价风险，不改航司价值与超级周期长逻辑，建议把握逆向布局时机。 3、【电力设备与新能源研究】储能设备及系统集成：欧洲天然气和电价将再次上涨，光储需求有 爆发的潜力。 王一凡(分析师) 021-38031722 wangyifan4@gtht.com S0880524120001 唐元懋(分析师) 0755-23976753 tangyuanmao@gtht.com S0880524040002 事件点评：《冲突时刻，海外债利率如何走》2026-03-0 ...

Group 1: China Ping An - The core strategy of China Ping An is "comprehensive finance + medical care and elderly care," which aims to create a new value growth pole through a "product + service" model, leading to long-term stable profit growth [3][4] - The report suggests that the current market valuation of China Ping An is low, with a PEV of 0.75, and recommends a target market value of 1.6 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 88.53 yuan per share [3][4] - The aging population in China and the increasing importance of commercial health insurance in medical payments are expected to enhance the effectiveness of the "product + service" model, positioning it as a new growth driver for the company [3][4] Group 2: Steel Research High Temperature Alloy - Steel Research High Temperature Alloy is a leading company in the high-temperature alloy sector, benefiting from strong demand in the aerospace industry and the trend towards technological self-sufficiency [5][6] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in net profit, with forecasts of 132 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 172 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][6] - The report highlights the resilience of the high-temperature alloy industry, driven by increasing defense budgets and the upgrade of aerospace equipment, which supports long-term demand [6][7] Group 3: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group is recognized for its strong innovation capabilities, with a focus on oncology and chronic disease treatment pipelines, and has established an international business development ecosystem [8][9] - The company has entered a strategic collaboration with AstraZeneca to develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs, which is expected to generate significant revenue potential [9][10] - The report predicts EPS growth of 48%, 36%, and -7% for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 16.58 HKD per share [8][9] Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with only 19% of cities showing signs of bottoming out as of Q4 2025 [18][19] - New home prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly in first-tier cities, while second-hand home prices are generally declining [19][20] - The report indicates that the inventory clearance cycle is extending, with first-tier cities reaching 19-28 months and some second-tier cities exceeding 38 months [20] Group 5: Robotics and Automation - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robotics sector, with new product launches expected to drive growth [21][22] - The report forecasts EPS of 1.14, 1.47, and 1.83 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 147.00 yuan per share [21][22] - The company is leveraging its expertise in micro-drive systems to enhance its competitive position in the robotics market [22][23] Group 6: Energy Storage Sector - The energy storage sector is anticipated to see significant growth, with the introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms in provinces like Qinghai [36][37] - The report suggests that the demand for energy storage systems and batteries will increase, recommending several key stocks in this sector [36][37] - The expected growth rate for energy storage demand in 2026 is projected to be around 50% [38]

Macro - The monetary policy maintains a tone of "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "keeping financial total growth reasonable" [3] - The third quarter report emphasizes the combination of "counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," indicating a subtle shift in policy focus [3] - The central bank addresses concerns about "tightening monetary policy," "weak financing," and "ineffective interest rates," suggesting a broader focus beyond short-term counter-cyclical support [3] - The pressure to achieve annual economic targets is manageable, reducing the urgency for short-term monetary easing, with a focus on implementing previous policies and preparing for cross-cyclical adjustments [3] - There remains room for interest rate cuts next year if economic growth pressures increase, especially considering low inflation and historically high real interest rates [3] Strategy - The technology manufacturing sector continues to show high prosperity, while real estate and durable goods demand remain weak [5] - Global AI infrastructure investment is driving the prosperity of the electronic semiconductor and power facility sectors, with storage demand rebounding and battery sales significantly increasing [5] - Real estate construction demand is entering a low season, with a widening decline in housing sales and a marginal decrease in demand for construction resources [5] - Upstream resource prices are mixed, with international metal prices declining while coal prices surge due to heating demand [5] Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline of 41.4% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing drops of 45.2%, 38.2%, and 43.9% respectively [9] - Durable goods consumption, particularly passenger car retail, has decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in October, influenced by changes in subsidy policies [9] - Agricultural prices show a mixed trend, with live pig prices down 3.1% month-on-month, while domestic staple grain prices continue to rise [9] - Service consumption indicators, such as tourism and movie box office revenues, indicate a slight decline in activity [9] Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to thrive, with explosive growth in storage demand driven by AI, and semiconductor sales increasing by 15% year-on-year in September [10] - Construction demand remains weak, with seasonal factors leading to a decline in building material demand [10] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing heightened prosperity, with significant price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate [10] - Coal prices have reached new highs due to tightened supply and increased heating demand, while international metal prices have declined [10] Energy Storage - The introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the economic viability of energy storage across more provinces [15] - Inner Mongolia's compensation for energy storage discharge in 2026 is set at 0.28 yuan/kWh, which, despite being lower than the previous year's rate, will stimulate demand [16] - The bidding volume for energy storage in October 2025 shows significant year-on-year growth, indicating a robust market demand [16]