三是会议明确了"稳中求进、提质增效"总基调。 在政策目标方面，会议将"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期"作为重要目标，体现了政策的多维平衡和系统性思维，旨在通过稳定微观主体来夯实宏观经济 基础。在应对经济的供需矛盾方面，会议强调"持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量"，这一 表述明确了解决供强需弱矛盾的双向路径，既注重需求侧管理，也强调供给侧改革，体现了政策的全面 性和协调性。在货币政策方面，会议明确提出"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重 要考量"，这意味着货币政策将在稳增长的同时，更加关注物价水平的合理回升，为经济复苏提供适宜 的货币环境。在提升政策效能方面，会议要求"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性"，并将各类经济政策和非 经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估，这有助于更好发挥政策的协同效应。 四是会议部署的2026年八项重点任务，特别强调逆周期和跨周期政策的有机结合。 这八项任务涵盖了 内需、创新、改革、开放、协调、绿色、民生、安全等多个维度。在内需政策方面，会议提出"深入实 施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划"，通过增加居民收入来提升消费能力，同时推动投 资 ...

信号二：逆周期与跨周期调节并重，政策托底走向精准长效。会议强调"加大逆周期和跨周期的调节力 度"，标志着房地产调控思路从短期刺激转向"短期稳市场、长期促转型"的双向发力。逆周期调节聚焦 当下市场痛点，通过优化限购限贷、推进货币化安置等政策精准化解短期下行压力；跨周期调节则着眼 于行业长远发展，为房地产高质量发展储备政策工具。这意味着2026年救市政策不会"急刹车"，但也不 会重现2015年那样的强刺激模式。从实践来看，各地已逐步清理住房消费领域的不合理限制，广州等城 市开启常态化商品房收储，通过盘活存量库存改善供求关系；同时，"好房子"建设标准不断完善，品质 住房供应放量将激发改善型需求，推动市场从"量的增长"转向"质的提升"。这种渐进式的政策调节，将 有效引导房价逐步筑底，避免市场大起大落，为拐点到来奠定基础。 来源：大伟看楼市 年末岁尾，中央重磅经济工作会议如期召开，3000余字的通稿精准勾勒出2026年经济发展的政策蓝图。 在诸多政策导向中，房地产市场相关信号备受瞩目。历经近四年的深度调整，全国楼市从普涨时代迈入 分化周期，房价下跌惯性逐步减弱。此次会议释放的三大核心信号，不仅为房地产市场"止跌回稳"筑 ...

持续扩大内需和优化供给需要更加积极有为的宏观政策予以支撑。会议指出将继续实施更加积 极的财政政策。在财政资金使用上，需把"投资于物和投资于人"紧密结合在一起。"投资于 物"意味着加强重点领域财力保障，全力支持高水平科技自立自强、建设现代化产业体系、推 动经济社会发展全面绿色转型等。"投资于人"则聚焦加强民生保障，财税资源将优先保障教 育、社会保障等基本公共服务，加大对普惠养老和育儿支持体系的财政补贴与税收激励力度。 会议提出实施适度宽松的货币政策。维持宽松的货币环境，能够切实降低实体经济特别是企业 的融资成本，提振经营和投资信心，为经济持续回升向好提供稳定的金融环境。为了保持流动 性合理充裕，降低社会融资成本，预计可能实施降准、降息，重点在于加大逆周期与跨周期调 节力度，并且或将更加注重精准滴灌，通过结构性工具将资金引向科技创新、绿色发展、普惠 小微等重点领域。 综合来看，为更好地实现稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期的目标，财政政策需与货币政策紧 密协同，确保形成合力，共同服务于"十五五"开好局的大目标，同时也需为培育新质生产力、 实现中长期高质量发展预留空间和创造条件。总量上，财政的扩大支出与货币的流通性投放 ...

中国证券报 ·提振消费服务民生财政政策将更加积极 今年以来，积极财政政策持续发力，政策效应不断释放。中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议提出，明年 经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。专家表 示，下一步，财政政策将延续积极取向，在提振消费方面，除综合运用财政补贴、贷款贴息等政策工具 外，还将着力"投资于人"，把更多资金资源用于服务民生，针对公共服务的短板弱项精准施策，激发消 费动能。 ·"赚一天亏两天" 理财净值波动引投资者热议 "买入就亏损，还不能赎回""赚一天亏两天""在封闭期跌了怎么办"……近期，社交平台上关于银行理财 产品收益波动的讨论持续升温。部分理财产品净值近期为何出现回撤？投资者该如何应对？记者调研发 现，此次理财市场扰动主要源于12月以来债券市场的调整。业内人士普遍认为，当前债市调整属短期现 象，基本面与政策面未出现显著利空，投资者无需过度恐慌，锚定长期价值、匹配自身需求才是理性之 举。 ·A股市场资金面回暖跨年行情有望徐徐展开 新华财经北京12月9日电四大证券报内容精华摘要如下： 12月8日，A股市场放量上涨，深证成指涨逾1%，创业板指涨逾2%。整个 ...

进入12月，"跨年行情"、"春季躁动"等成为了多家券商策略的重要关键词。展望后市，年末行情将如何 演绎？投资又该如何前瞻布局？对此，长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪立表示，自10月市场回调以来， 融资买入额与成交占比整体均显著回落，但上周随着整体市场风险偏好趋稳，两融活跃度有所回升。随 着一系列风险因素逐步进入落地期，整体市场进入情绪修复阶段，预计后续融资买入额与融资买入成交 占比有望稳中回升。 汪立认为，随着逐渐进入风险落地期，行业配置再平衡需求提升，资金再配置需求有望回归。原因包括 以下三个方面：一是美联储降息预期回升，随着议息会议临近，全球流动性预期或将改善；二是10月国 内经济和企业盈利数据走弱，政策进一步发力提振增长的必要性抬升，"逆周期与跨周期调节"有望加 码；三是从交易上来看，当前A股热门赛道与宽基指数调整幅度已接近历次科技行情情绪性调整的均值 水平，A股两融成交占比、行业RSI超卖指标接近年内极值位置，叠加存款端5年期定存停售、双创主题 ETF获批等因素，短期阶段反转信号或逐步显现。 投资思路上，汪立认为，当前或是布局春季行情的合适时机，新兴科技有望重回主线，并适度关注低估 值消费与券商。汪立表示 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In November, the A-share market exhibited a volatile pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67%, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index fell by 4.23% and 6.24% respectively [1][7] - There was a significant shift in market structure as funds sought to rebalance their portfolios, with banking, petrochemical, textile, and light industry sectors showing the highest gains, while electronics, computers, and automotive sectors experienced notable pullbacks [1][7] Group 2: Macro Analysis - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size weakened, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.9% from January to October, down from 2.4% in the previous period, and a significant drop to -5.5% in October compared to 21.6% in September [2][8] - The increase in raw material prices under the "anti-involution" policy, combined with weak demand, has narrowed corporate profit margins, although sectors like non-ferrous metals, electronic equipment, food, beverages, and automotive still maintained positive year-on-year growth [2][8] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has risen, with indications from Fed officials suggesting a need for significant rate reductions to support economic growth, despite a recent increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [2][8] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Following the market correction since October, there has been a notable decline in margin trading activity, but recent stabilization in market risk appetite has led to a rebound in margin trading volumes [4][10] - The anticipated recovery in global liquidity due to the Fed's rate cut expectations, alongside the need for further policy measures to stimulate domestic growth, suggests a potential rebalancing of industry allocations [4][10] - Current market conditions may present an opportune moment to position for a spring rally, with a focus on emerging technologies, undervalued consumer stocks, and brokerage firms [5][11] - Specific sectors to watch include technology growth (internet, semiconductors, media, power equipment, innovative pharmaceuticals), consumer goods (mass products, hotels, airlines, retail), and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to benefit from easing monetary policies [5][11]

摘要 3、债券市场 4、权益市场 境内宏观：1-10月规上工业企业利润累计同比增速为1.9%，较1-9月的2.4%回落0.6个百分点，其中10月同比增速为-5.5%，较9月的21.6%由正转负。一方 面，上年同期基数明显抬高，对同比增速有一定影响，另一方面，"反内卷"下原材料涨价、叠加需求端表现偏弱，导致企业盈利空间收窄。 境外宏观：美联储降息预期再度回升，12月海外降息或是大概率事件，经历近期市场震荡后即使不降息其对市场的影响也较有限。9月美国非农新增就业 大超市场预期，但失业率数据进一步上行至4.4%。 债券市场：短期来看，货币政策年内降息预期降低，但在央行重启买债背景下，流动性或仍将维持宽松，债市大概率将维持区间震荡格局，趋势性行情减 弱，更多呈现结构性机会与博弈性机会并存的特征。 权益市场：上周市场风格向科技成长回归，资金从组合再平衡转向再配置。通信、电子、传媒等科技行业涨幅领先，石化、银行、煤炭等行业回调。10月 市场回调以来，融资买入额与成交占比整体均显著回落，上周随着整体市场风险偏好趋稳，两融活跃度有所回升。 投资策略：投资思路上，新兴科技仍有望成为主线，并适度关注低估消费与券商。 目录 1、境 ...

海外方面，美联储降息预期再度回升。9月美国非农新增就业数据超预期，但失业率进一步上行至 4.4%。美联储理事米兰表示，美国经济需要大幅降息，货币政策阻碍了经济发展。此前，美联储官员 戴利也表示支持在12月美联储会议上降低利率。 目前美国就业市场仍处于温和放缓的"紧平衡"，高利率压制利率敏感型行业就业，12月降息的概率或较 大。不过，经历近期市场震荡后，即使美联储在12月不降息对市场的影响可能也有限。 回顾11月，A股市场整体呈现震荡格局，上证指数月内小幅下跌1.67%，而创业板指、科创50指数则分 别下跌4.23%和6.24%。其中市场结构显著切换，资金寻求组合再平衡，月度看银行、石化、纺服、轻 工等行业涨幅居前，电子、计算机、汽车等行业回调明显。 宏观分析： 美联储降息概率提升 国内方面，10月规上工业企业利润转弱，利润修复仍需依托需求改善与政策发力形成合力。国家统计局 发布数据显示，1-10月规上工业企业利润累计同比增速为1.9%，较1-9月的2.4%回落0.6个百分点，其中 10月同比增速为-5.5%，较9月的21.6%由正转负。 分析来看，一方面，上年同期基数明显抬高，对同比增速有一定影响。另一方面， ...

Group 1 - The overall market is expected to enter a sentiment recovery phase as various risk factors approach resolution, with a rebalancing of industry allocations anticipated [1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and the potential for interest rate cuts in December may improve global liquidity expectations [1][2] - Current adjustments in A-share popular sectors and broad indices are nearing historical average levels for emotional corrections, indicating potential short-term reversal signals [1] Group 2 - Emerging technology is expected to remain a key investment theme, with attention also on undervalued consumer stocks and brokerage firms [2] - The improvement in global industrial competitiveness is opening new growth opportunities for Chinese companies, particularly in sectors like internet, semiconductors, media, power equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - The financial sector is seen as a crucial mechanism for stabilizing the market, with potential benefits from surging asset management demand and active market trading, focusing on brokerage, insurance, and banking [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback last week, with major indices generally declining. Sectors such as banking and consumer goods showed relatively smaller declines, while media and military industries, which had previously corrected, remained stable. This indicates a continued structural differentiation in the market, with small-cap growth styles under pressure and value and dividend sectors performing relatively well, reflecting intensified competition for funds amid declining risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic indicators such as industrial production, consumption, and investment growth rates slowed down in October compared to September. This was influenced by holiday timing and high base effects from last year's policy stimulus, leading to short-term fluctuations in data. The pressure on domestic and external demand still requires policy support, with the need for further implementation of existing policies and timely introduction of new measures [2] - Credit performance from both enterprises and households has been relatively weak, with social financing growth continuing to decline due to reduced government bond issuance. However, new policy financial tools are gradually showing effects, which may support corporate loans. The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits, which may help stabilize social financing data in the last two months of the year [2] Group 3 - The debate over the AI valuation bubble is intensifying, causing fluctuations in the US stock market. However, data shows that the current Nasdaq index growth and valuation levels are significantly lower than during the tech bubble period from 1995 to 2000. Core companies are also showing accelerated profit releases, with stronger valuation and profit quality compared to that period [3] Group 4 - Following the market pullback in October, the overall financing and trading volume has significantly decreased. However, as various risk factors begin to stabilize, the market is expected to enter a phase of emotional recovery, with increased demand for industry rebalancing and fund reallocation. Factors supporting this include the dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, the necessity for policy intervention to boost growth in light of weak real estate and consumption data, and the current A-share market's adjustment levels approaching historical averages [4] - Emerging technology is expected to remain a key investment theme, with a focus on undervalued consumer sectors and brokerage firms. Specific areas of interest include internet, semiconductor, media, power equipment, and innovative pharmaceuticals in the technology sector, as well as consumer goods, hotels, airlines, and retail in the consumer sector. The financial sector is also highlighted as a crucial area for stabilizing the market and benefiting from increased asset management demand [4]